Round 20, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R20, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 12 Aug 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: ARRRGH! It tipped the Roos as certs (correct) and to win by over 6 goals; they exceeded the expectations of most (about 4 goals), but only won by 35 points; I wil call this a draw!

This week, Collingwood plays first and they will be perused.  They hadn’t won since before the bye (vs GWS at the MCG 14 June in round 11), but they eventually snapped a 6 game losing streak to record an unimpressive win over their old enemies – the Blues.

The win won’t make the “best of” collection, but it will have the effect of a pressure relief valve. A team can exceed expectations by a huge margin the week following such a win.

As a rule, the more unimpressive the break-through win is (by a middle ranked team like Collingwood) the greater the results the following week.  It seems to defy logic, but it has happened a few times.

The most recent examples relevant to the Pies are: Swans 2010 – they lost 4 in a row R7-10 and then fell over the line against Essendon in a result about level with expectations; the following week, they played Port away in what was considered to be a tight game.  They won by 38 points by virtue of a 7 goal to 2 second term.

The other example to quote was the Hawk in 2010 (about the last time they were not a top team). They lost 6 in a row rounds 2 – 7 and then fell across the line against Richmond by three points (in a game they were expected to win by 3 – 4 goals).  The following week, Carlton was a warm favourites to beat the Hawks (cannot imagine that now) but the Hawks kicked 5 goals to 2 in the opening stanza and led by 6 goals at half time.

If this technical trend works out for the Pies (and it is not absolutely guaranteed) they expect them to lead comfortably at half time over the Swans (who are warm favourites) and then hang on well thereafter.

To finish – a quick work on Port.  They have 2 chances to play finals – Nathan Buckley and Glynis Nunn.  Their round 19 match against the Dogs was it was the most disappointing loss in his three-year stint in charge of the Power.

This should ring alarm bells for technical analysts.  A huge UP is possible and likely.  Their opponents (GWS) have had a few weeks on the road and then a game at home.  When they hit the road Jack again after such a pattern, they generally begin quite well.  After their start, the results are mixed.

I expect Port to power away in the second half.  They are tipped to win by 2 – 3 goals; I have them winning by 5 goals plus.