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Finals 2, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to Finals week 2, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 16 Sep 2015 & changed 17 Sep 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: my analysis wasn’t great. The Tigers repeated the pattern of previous years in underperforming in the first week of the finals; and, although the Eagles won well, they didn’t finish strongly as I predicted; one small thing to note is that I reckon they would’ve finished well had the game been in the balance at the last break; as it was, they just costed to a victory

 

This week the Hawks / Crows game will be the focus. I have been banging on about the Hawks NOT winning the 2015 flag.  At various time during the year, I have looked like a failure or a genius. 

Let’s assume that the Hawks won’t win the flag.  The next thing to determine is when they will hit the wall.  A case could be made for all three outcomes (lose week 2, 3 or 4).

Trawling back through the history of teams to have big grand final wins – the last one to lose in week 1 of the finals was Carlton in 1996.  They, like the Hawks, got towelled up by the Eagles in Perth.  The next week, they travelled to Brisbane and lost by 97 points.

Next, we go back to 1995 when the Eagles (big 1994 grand final winner) lost by 19 points to Essendon in week 1 of the finals at Waverley. The next week, they returned to Melbourne and were soundly beaten by the Roos at the MCG.

While this trend may tend to suggest the Hawks will lose this week, there are some things to note.  Both the above teams travelled in both weeks (1 & 2 of finals). The Hawks failed on their dreaded trip west, but now play at home.

Their rivals – the Crows – will be travelling for the third consecutive week. This is a big negative for them; but they are the only team to win 3 weeks in a row on the road in finals (Weeks 2, 3 & 4 in 1998).

The grand final big win teams generally seem to have things go wrong late in the season.  Usually it is injuries.  For the Hawks, it was a mix of things: the exit of Brendon Bolton; the tragedy in the Ratten family; the injury to Jack Gunston; and, finally, the one thing that is almost always a factor for such teams – playing injured players.  Isaac Smith appeared less than 100% on Friday night.

To offset the trip back from Perth, the Hawks have a day’s extra rest than Adelaide.  And, of course, the Crows have had their own tragedy to deal with when they lost their coach mid-season.

Summing it all up: the Hawks have rebounded well after losses each time this year with wins; they outperformed expectations in the wins (after losses) in R3 (exceeded expectations by 20 points); R5 (+39), R7 (+60); then it went R9 (-22 but won), R19 (+7) and R22 (+1).  Their rebounds have been diminishing – which would be expected of a big win grand final team in the next year.  My suspicion is that the Hawks will definitely win, but they are unlikely to massively outperform expectations – maybe a win in the range of 2 – 7 goals.