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End of Year Ladder Predictor

End of Year Ladder Predictor  Updated 30 Aug 2011

 

The theory of applying percentage chances to each game becomes virtually meaningless in the last round or two of the season

So here is some mathematical snippets for ladder positions.

 

The Dons’ 7 point win gives them 2217 points for and 2217 points against for the year.  This sums up their up and down performance perfectly – they broke even!  This means that a > 100 point loss to the Swans will put them below Essendon on the ladder (chances of this occurring are ~ 1 in 1,000).  Similarly, a Saints loss by > 194 points will put them below the Dons (just as unlikely).

 

With the Swans playing Saturday afternoon (and probably winning), it means that the Saints will jest need to win vs the Blues to clinch a home state final in week 1.

 

Further down the ladder, the Tigers will climb to 9th if they and the Dogs both win AND the Dees don’t win by too much.  If the Dees win by ~23 points MORE than the Tigers win by, then they will go ahead of Richmond.

 

If the Roos win, however, they will finish 9th.

 

The Crows are a minuscule chance to go ahead of the Dogs, but need to win in Perth and for the Dogs to lose to Freo in order for that to happen.

 

A Port win coupled with A Suns loss will see Port climb off the bottom of the ladder

 

 

Per Round 23 items below

How it works.

The current ladder is taken and each team is given a bonus or penalty for their percentage.  Then each team is allocated a score for every game through to the end of the year.  1 = a certain win; 0.7 = a 70% chance to win etc.  The figures are based on bookies odds for the next round and then best estimates from there on, based on all factors considered at the time.  

The final tally gives the approximate ladder at the end of the year.  This method gives a truer picture compared to assigning a win or a loss (a 1 or a 0) for the games.  As an example, the Blues are likely to be outsiders vs Collingwood and favourites in every other game they play for the year.  The 1 and 0 theory would give them 7 wins and a loss.  But because they are only 60 or 70% likely to win all of the games in which they are favourites, their actual win / loss record for the rest of the year adds up to 5 wins only.

 

Each week, the chart is adjusted after the results and the amended end of year ladder is calculated.  This works well until the last 1 – 2 rounds of the year.

 

Right now, the Eagles are almost certs for 4th.

The Roos have a slim chance of making it.

Dons, Swans and Saints only need one win each to make it for sure

 

Team              Wins    Comments

1          COL   21.2     Beat Freo and claim top spot

2          GEE    19.2     finish 2nd unless Freo beat the Pies

3          HAW  18.2     Safe in 3rd

4          WCE  16.1     Win this week and 4th is theirs

 

5          CAR   15.1     Will cheer for the Lions this week!!

6          STK    12        Need 1 win to make finals

7          SYD    11.8     Need 1 win to make finals

8          ESS     11.5     Need 1 win to make finals

 

9          NOR   10.5     Needs 2 wins and other results to make finals

10        FRE    9          Mathematical chance only

11        WBD  8.9       Can finish as high as 9th only

12        MEL   8.7       Can finish as high as 9th only

 

13        ADE   7.9       Can finish as high as 9th only

14        RIC     7.8       Can finish as high as 10th only

15        BRI     4.6       Seems to have 15th sewn up

16        GCS    2.6       Tiny chance for spoon

17        POR    1.9       Tiny chance for 16th

 

 

Raw Data

Pos      Team  %        Wins   +/- %   D+E    23        24        Tot

1          GEE    160      18                    18        0.8       0.4       19.2

2          COL   179      19        0.7       19.7     0.9       0.6       21.2

3          CAR   134      14.5                 14.5     BYE    0.6       15.1

4          HAW  145      16        0.4       16.4     0.8       1          18.2

5          WCE  126      15        -0.4      14.6     0.7       0.8       16.1

6          FRE    88        9          -0.4      8.6       0.1       0.3       9

7          SYD    106      10.5     0.2       10.7     0.2       0.9       11.8

8          ESS     100      10.5     0          10.5     1          BYE    11.5

9          MEL   83        7.5       -0.5      7          0.9       0.8       8.7

10        NOR   104      9          0.4       9.4       0.4       0.7       10.5

11        WBD  95        8                      8          0.2       0.7       8.9

12        STK    108      10.5     0.5       11        0.6       0.4       12

13        RIC     85        7.5       -0.3      7.2       0.3       0.3       7.8

14        ADE   83        7                      7          0.7       0.2       7.9

15        BRI     82        4          0.2       4.2       0.3       0.1       4.6

16        POR    61        2          -0.3      1.7       0          0.2       1.9

17        GCS    54        3          -0.5      2.5       0.1       0          2.6