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Finals 1 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to Final week 1, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 10 Sep 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: okay; I talked Port up a bit too much; the problem (for them – just like Richmond the previous day) was getting off to a slow start.  The finish was great; but they were too far back to win by 15 goals; a small tick, however, was that they did exceed expectations.

 

This week is finals week 1 and there are a huge number of injury concerns to muddy the waters; with this analysis done prior to team selections, I will hark back to my early entry:
http://longggey.com/no-three-peat-n-2015/

from 31 March 2015 where I predicted that the Hawks would not win 3 in a row.  Based on this, I am expecting the Hawks will be dropping off at some point.  For some teams who have a big grand final win the year earlier, the drop-off often occurs on the second half on grand final day.

But there can also be signs in week 1 of the finals.  The big grand final winners may slaughter a much more lowly ranked team, but they often struggle to be that great in the final term.

With the Eagles getting the home ground advantage – and being slight outsiders – I am leaning towards them winning this one.  But, more so, I expect them to finish the game better than Hawthorn (not that this is much help for tipsters if the final term doesn’t change the result).

The concern for the Eagles is their relative lack of finals experience – so the danger for them is that they get blown away in the first term; or they “survive the first quarter” and then relax and are poor in the second term.

If I knew that the Eagles were going to lead at half time – or be within 10 points – I would be much more confident in tipping them.

Okay, my tip is a bit wimpy, but it is not a week to be super-confident.

Just a quick word on the Richmond / North elimination final – it would appear to be a game where the loser falls apart late in the contest; but I am not sure why – apart from the pressure on both teams.  My suspicion is that the Tigers might pull away for a very convincing win.  But, again, it’s not a week for overconfidence.