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Finals 1, 2015

Finals 1, 2015

SuperTipping results for R23: 5 winners for a total of 146 + 2 bonus pts = 148 and ranking dipped from 464 to 541 out of 46,981 tipsters (top 1% – elite)

Footytips.com.au streak: 5 out of 6 (with Hawks, Tigers, Port, Swans and Eagles all winning well; but the risky one in Dogs went down) Streak wiped out and then back up to 4; ranking worsened from 386 to 426 (and will be difficult to do any better this late in the season) but still in top 2% (excellent).

50/50 tips: 3 out of 4 for the week (with Tigers failing to win by more than 50 points – the 1 negative; the positives were Port winning by more than 58 points; Swans winning by more than 56 points; and the risky one paid off in Bombers to win or to lose by less than 23 and they snuck home by less than a kick) and 27 out of 61 for the year = a result of a poor, but improved, 44% (anything above 50% is good).

 

Early thoughts for Finals week 1: just about every club has a fresh injury concern; and this is about as close as you will ever get to 4 finals that are 50/50 chances;  the early (subject to change without notice – please talk to your footy tipping consultant) tips are: Eagles in a minor upset; Dockers (don’t tip a cert unless you have to – but maybe Freo if you absolutely must); Dogs and Tigers; not too keen on the last two games (Dogs / Crows & Tiers / Roos)

Finals week 1, 2015

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 WCE HAW Subi WCE 2 HIGH No real outsider
2 FREO SYD Subi FREO 18 HIGH A small chance
3 WBD ADEL MCG WBD 6 EXTREME No real outsider
4 RICH NMFC MCG RICH 16 EXTREME A chance

 

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

 

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1        Qualifying Final                                          

WCE vs.     HAW           Subi  Fri, 11 Sept 6:20 pm WA time

The Eagles in a tough one to pick

Weather:  showers, windy

Please view Penny’s comments on this game here:

http://longggey.com/finals-1-2015-penny/

The winner of this one is likely to be favourite to win the flag; certainly the Hawks will be hot favourites if they win; the Eagles should be favourites if they win, but it may also depend on the result of the other game in Perth.

 

These teams played in R19; the significant difference between now and then was that Nicnat wasn’t there.  But it also should be noted that Callum Sinclair was also injured – so they went with just one ruckman in Scott Lycett.  Now that Lycett is injured, the Eagles have the other two back in the team.  It is the tandem ruck situation – not just number 9 – which may cause the Hawks trouble.  That is the area where the Eagles can win it.

 

The Hawks look to be as close to full strength as any team – but there is a doubt on Isaac Smith.  Penny has been banging on about the Hawks due for a crash.  Well, if they lose this one, they will also have to travel somewhere for the prelim (Perth again or Sydney).  Suffice to say that the Hawks really need to win this one to be a realistic chance.

 

The Eagles get the benefit of having played 4 of the last 5 games in Perth (one being an away Derby vs Freo) – and that will help – given that both teams have a six day break.

 

The big danger for the Eagles is their inexperience in finals – compared to Hawthorn.  If they hold their nerve and play to their best – they should win.  But they are big “ifs”.

 

The Eagles by 2 points in a tough one to pick
Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 2 points and they won by 32; analysis was reasonably good; since the preview, Matt Priddis was a withdrawal; and Isaac Smith got up to play – but wasn’t looking 100%; then, when Jack Gunston went down, it made it hard for the Hawks; the Eagles (see above) won the ruck duels; maybe Penny was correct in that the Hawks were due for a downer

 

 

 

         

2        Qualifying Final                                           

FREO         vs.      SYD  Subi  Sat, 12 Sept 1:20 pm WA time

The Dockers should do it

Weather:  showers, windy

The Dockers have made 14 changes, but here is a list of the REAL changes (from R22)

In: Hayden Ballantyne, Zachary Clarke, Nathan Fyfe, Matthew Taberner

Out: Jonathon Griffin, Ed Langdon, Tendai Mzungu, Clancee Pearce

Nat Fyfe remains under a cloud (actually, they all will be on Saturday!) fitness wise. He joined a closed training session – watch the news to see if he actually plays.

 

The Swans not only miss Buddy, but also go in without Kieran Jack and Luke Parker.  This makes the Dockers clear favourites.

 

The lone positive for the Swans is that they do play Subi extremely well.  But the personnel problem means that the Dockers will be tipped – by 18 points
Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 18 points and they won by 9; analysis was fairly good; the Dockers lost Luke McPharlin and Matt Taberner before the game – and then Nick Suban was subbed out with VERY low numbers and Chris Mayne suffered from a head clash; having said all that, the Swans had a chance to win it and didn’t capitalise.  Gary Rohan doesn’t look completely fit

Nat Fyfe did well; the call of Freo as certs was a bit dubious; but they got over the line somehow.

 

 

 

 

 

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

3        Elimination Final                                         

WBD vs.      ADEL         MCG Sat, 12 Sept 7:20 pm     

The Dogs – maybe

Weather: dry, breezy

This is a rare time a finals game is played between 2 teams who both missed finals for the past 2 years (longer – in the case of the Dogs).

 

It makes the game a bit harder to pick.  Adding to the intrigue is that they both had unexpected losses last weekend.  Maybe more so the Dogs – who were hot favourites to knock over the Lions.  It could be argued that the Dogs (playing 40 minutes later than the Crows) could have found something extra had the Crows beaten Geelong.

 

The Dogs have the home state advantage and that means that they will be tipped – but without much confidence.

 

The gap between finals appearances for both teams makes this an EXTREME variance game.

 

Dogs by 6 points – but not overly confident
Post Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 6 points but the Crows won by 7; analysis was not that great – the variance was called EXTREME – the game trend was borderline EXTREME; it was a game that the Dogs maybe could’ve / should’ve won but, like the Swans didn’t take their chances; but credit to Tex Walker and Patrick Dangerfield who got the Crows over the line

 

 

 

4        Elimination Final                                         

RICH          vs.      NMFC         MCG Sun, 13 Sept 3:20 pm    

The Tigers

Weather: dry, windy

Please view Penny’s comments on this game here:

http://longggey.com/finals-1-2015-penny/
These two teams played last week.  But it was a game of cat and mouse.  Who “won” this lopsided battle?  It is hard to say.  The Roos had been going flat out just to make the finals and, therefore, may have played some players in R15-22 (say) who really needed a rest; they got that rest once the finals were in the bag.

The only genuine changes for the Roos are: Luke McDonald stayed in (on the 7 man IC bench); Lindsay Thomas is in (again, 7 man bench).

 

Penny reckons one team may crack under the pressure.  Given that the Tigers have not won a week one final since 1982 – it may be them.  But they seem stronger mentally this time – and will be given the nod.  But anything could happen! Tigers by 16 points


Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 16 points but the Roos won by 17; analysis was so-so;  again, like the above game, it was labelled as EXTREME variance and was borderline EXTREME; maybe more stock should have been taken of the Tigers’ week one of finals; the decision to play Ben Griffiths appeared incorrect – he couldn’t get into the game and then was subbed off; the North pressure – especially in 3Q – seemed to tune the game; even so, the Tigers could’ve got back into it bar for a couple of crucial errors. 

 

 

 

 

 

Best cert:  If you absolutely have to – Freo; this website will add Freo as a cert, but only because of a small numbers of certs – not protecting a huge run (they fell over the line)

 

Best Outsider: the Eagles are the best outsiders for the week (they won well)

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated: Eagles to win (they won well)

 

Happy tipping!  This isn’t easy  (and it wasn’t!)