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Finals 2, 2015

Finals 2, 2015

SuperTipping results for R23: 5 winners for a total of 146 + 2 bonus pts = 148 and ranking dipped from 464 to 541 out of 46,981 tipsters (top 1% – elite)

Footytips.com.au streak: nothing done: Streak still at 4; ranking remains at 426 (and will be difficult to do any better this late in the season) but still in top 2% (excellent).

50/50 tips: 1 out of 1 for the week (with Eagles winning) and 28 out of 62 for the year = a result of a poor, but improved 45% (anything above 50% is good).

 

Early thoughts for Finals week 2: the Hawks are favoured to win; the other game is harder to pick – but the Swans are the early tip

Finals week 2, 2015

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 HAW ADEL MCG  HAW 30   HIGH  a tiny chance
2 SYD NMFc SCG  SYD  6  EXTREME  a big chance

 

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

1        HAW v ADEL Friday September 18 at MCG, 7:50PM

The Eagles in a tough one to pick

Weather:  any light showers to be well gone by game time; light winds

Please view Penny’s comments on this game here:

http://longggey.com/756-2/
The Hawks are gone – if you believe Penny – but not this week.  She has them doing well enough to win.  The problem for the Crows is that they are on the road for the third week running.  And they were maybe a tad lucky to beat the Dogs (who wasted opportunities); had Patrick Dangerfield and Tex Walker not been super in 4Q, they would definitely have lost. Walker is not thought of as a genius – mainly because he doesn’t have a scholarly look.  But he has a huge football brain!  It was a pleasure to watch his bit of play late in 4Q that led to Charlie Cameron marking 20 out directly in front.

 

Maybe Penny is correct on the Hawks being able to rebound from a loss okay this year (with diminishing returns), but the Crow travel factor could be more significant.  This game smacks of a Hawk team “proving that they still have it”.  Trouble is – this means a flag to their fans; they should “prove it” this week, but it gets much harder the following week.

 

The Crows have been known to play really well for a few weeks, but then crash badly. Whether this will happen again is uncertain. An honourable loss is maybe a little more likely.

 

The dropping of Will Langford looks suspicious; expect him to be a late inclusion – maybe there will be an injury or a swap for another player.

 

The other unknown is the emotional wave for the Crows. Can it keep going or will it crash?  Watch and see.

 

The Hawks by 30 points; if you must pick a cert this week, the Hawks are it
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 30 points and they won by 74; analysis was a fair way off – but just slightly better than the average; it appears that it all got too much for the Crows – the Phil Walsh story, the travel, coming up after the Dogs game; Brodie Smith was subbed off in R23, played ok in F1 but was down against the Hawks; Hawthorn was out to prove they were still a big player in the finals and were emphatic in that regard; their start was terrific and the game was virtually sewn up at QT.  The game was labelled HIGH variance but was, in actual scoring patterns, EXTREME

 

 

         

2        SYD v NMFC       Saturday September 19 at ANZ Stadium, 7:20PM

The Swans – maybe

Weather:  showers – maybe clearing before game time; winds becoming light

The Swans cannot win the flag – it seems; they will have to do it without Buddy and Sam Reid – and also possibly without Luke Parker and Kieran Jack. And they would need to travel to Perth next week – then to Melbourne the week after.  It’s all too hard.

 

But do they have enough in them to beat the Roos?  This is a tough question. The home state advantage and higher ranking gives them a chance; but their injuries are definitely worse than that of the Roos – and this is where the Roos can win.

 

Brad Scott rested almost half the team in R23 and it seemed to help last weekend; they also claim it will help this week as well; if so, it may have a double plus – because the Swans looked plum tuckered out after losing to Freo the week before.

 

But it should be noted that few teams go out in straight sets – despite it happening to both Froe and Geelong in 2014.  They normally find something – and almost always have an extra day to prepare.  That is true here – but the Roos did play Friday night in R23 compared to the Swans a night later – so the benefit to Sydney is minimal.

 

This is a game to avoid if you can.

 

The Swans by 6 points in a danger game
Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 6 points but the Roos won by 26; analysis was just so-so; the Swans lost this game due to the following: Myke Pyke was not much of a contributor with 33 SC points; Todd Goldstein clearly won the ruck duels against him and Kurt Tippett; Ben McGlynn was having his second game back; James Rose was a late replacement for Brandon Jack and had no impact at all; Lewis Jetta had an Absolute Shocker; their home state advantage was not enough to cover for their missing stars; as for the Roos, they were good enough to take advantage of the “rails run” presented to them; they withstood a 3Q fightback and then went on to win well; now they need a few things more to go right for them…  The game was labelled as EXTREME variance, but the scoring pattern and differential between the actual margin and expected margin meant that the game was marginally in the HIGH variance range

 

Best cert:  If you absolutely have to – Hawthorn (never in doubt)

 

Best Outsider: the Roos are the best outsiders for the week (did the job well)

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated: Hawks to win by more than 27 points, but not keen on the 50/50 this week (never in doubt)

 

Happy tipping!  It looks like one easy pick and one hard one – but you never know (and so it proved – but the Roos romped away)