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Finals 3, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to Finals week 3, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 26 Sep 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: my analysis was awful – with the Hawks blowing the Crows away; I reckon the Crows just hit the wall big time, while the Hawks were right on the ball

This week the Dockers / Hawks game will be the main focus. Let’s look at the Dockers first.  Many of their players have played only one game since R22 (resting in R23 and then playing F1, then another rest in F2).  Many (mainly in Victoria, probably) are saying that this may be a negative for the Dockers.  But they did the exact same thing in 2013 – leading to a nice prelim win and a respectable loss in the big one.  The only difference was that they had to travel in week 1 of the finals in 2013.  So that won’t be a problem.

Now let’s look at teams which finish 3 or 4 who travel in weeks 1 and 3 of the finals.  Here is the data on prelim finals:

Swans 2013: lost to Freo by 26 points (Freo favoured by 20)

Eagles 2011: lost to Cats by 69 points (Cats favoured by 48)

Dockers 2006: lost to Swans by 35 points (Swans favoured by about 20)

St Kilda 2004: lost to Port by 6 points (maybe about as expected)

Brisbane 2003: defeated Swans by 44 points (an even game was expected)

Crows 2002: lost to Collingwood by 28 points (Pies favoured by 18 points)

 

The pattern doesn’t look all that good for the Hawks – but the one exception above was Brisbane – who went on to win their third flag in a row in 2003.  So why don’t I tip the Hawks?  Well, firstly, the Lions only travelled the east coast for these matches; next – the Lions scraped home in the 2002 grand final; and, lastly, they were not actual flag favourites coming into the finals series (as the Hawks were).

 

I am not tipping the Dockers (currently slight underdogs) as certs – because they have some injury concerns – but I reckon that they are well placed to win.

 

The home teams against interstate visitors in prelims tend to do well in the middle parts of the game.  This may particularly apply to the Eagles this weekend. With the Roos desperate to get off to a good start, they may be particularly vulnerable in the second term.