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Finals 3, 2015

Finals 3, 2015

SuperTipping results for R23: 5 winners for a total of 146 + 2 bonus pts = 148 and ranking dipped from 464 to 541 out of 46,981 tipsters (top 1% – elite)

Footytips.com.au streak: 1 out of 1 (with the Hawks winning big and early): Streak up to a modest 5; ranking remains at 426 (and will be difficult to do any better this late in the season) but still in top 2% (excellent).

50/50 tips: 1 out of 1 for the week (with the Hawks winning big) and 29 out of 63 for the year = a result of 46% (anything above 50% is good).

 

Early thoughts for Finals week 3: the Hawks are the favourites over Freo by about a goal; but this looks to be the wrong way around; the Dockers will be the early tip; the Eagles look set for a big win; they will only lose if they mismanage the bye, play injured players or the hype gets the better of them

Finals week 3, 2015

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 FREO HAW Subi FREO 4 EXTREME Tipped to win
2 WCE NMFC Subi WCE 41 HIGH No hope at all

 

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

 

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1        FREO v HAW Friday, September 25, 2015 at Subi 6:20pm (= 8.20PM eastern)

The Dockers in a tough one to pick

Weather:  dry; moderate winds

Please view Penny’s comments on this game here:
http://longggey.com/finals-3-2015-penny/

The Hawks are favourites for this one – on the back of their better form in the last half of the season compared to the Dockers.  Note that the Hawks are favourites despite finishing a game (and 2 spots) behind the Dockers; and playing the Dockers at Subi; and with the Dockers getting a week’s rest; and the Hawks going to Perth for the third time in the past 7 weeks.

 

Of course, the Hawks have a superior percentage – and there are some doubts on the Dockers to run out the season well; Freo was not that great against the Swans in F1 – but they won, got to stay at home and had the week’s rest.

 

Speaking of rests – a lot has been made of the Docker shaving “too much rest” – with some players missing R23 and then, of course last week due to winning in F1.  But this worked well for them in 2013 – and they would’ve expected to win their first finals when they rested their players in R23.  Maybe it might be just what the Pav needs to get him up for this week and possible next. 

 

Please note the important non-selection: ex Hawk Luke McPharlin is still out for the Dockers.

 

The doubt on both teams make this an extreme variance game. The Hawks are due to collapse sooner or later – maybe this week, maybe next;  and the Dockers have looked a bit impotent and unconvincing for some months now.

 

Dockers by 4 points in a minor upset
Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 4 points but the Hawks won by 27; analysis wasn’t that great (obviously); the problem in analysing this one was just how much the Dockers could improve from their struggling late season form; those arguing for a “yes” would have said that they had a few weeks at home and a week’s rest in F2 (which should’ve helped some of the older blokes); Freo’s inclusions failed in different ways – Matthew Taberner scored very low numbers and was subbed off; Jonathon Griffin botched a couple of chances; the most notable was missing a sitter on the half time siren; these sort of misses are energy-sapping for the team (remember Corey McKernan missing one almost as easy in the 1998 GF); it seemed that the Dockers could just not recapture the form of early season; but the Hawks had to be good enough to capitalise on this – and also withstand a great 4Q fightback; their 27-point win came on the back of 42 inside 50s to 41; so their efficiency was a key; it also appears that the bottom few players of the Dockers are not quite up to it; Michael Barlow may not have been 100%; then there was the injury to the Brownlow medallist!

 

         

2        WCE v NMFC     Saturday September 26 at Subi, 5.45PM (= 7.45PM eastern)

The Eagles are certs

Weather:  dry; moderate winds

The Eagles look well placed to win through to the grand final. The Roos have had to travel to Sydney last week and now to Perth.  Despite the “refreshedness” of the Roos, this challenge will be enough to finish them off.

 

Matt Priddis is in and is a cert to play (could’ve played last week, according to Justin Longmuir).  But the closed training sessions and lack of info suggests that there may be doubt on Chris Masten’s hammie.

 

Penny touched briefly on this game and the gist is that the Eagles would need to do something wrong to lose it.  They have the home ground advantage, better form and a beautiful lead into the game with a lot of time in Perth (having travelled in weeks 18 & 22 and all other weeks in Perth from R17 onwards!).

 

Penny expects them to maybe break away in 2Q; this sounds possible; maybe they may also draw away late – when the game is over.

 

Eagles by 41 points and certs
Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 41 points and they won by 25; analysis was better than it looked; had the Eagles needed to win the game by 7 goals, they would have done it; the truth is that they really stuffed around with the ball in 4Q; there was one occasion when Mark Le Cras marked and could’ve run into n open goal; but he took the set shot merely to run time off the clock; the game was a bit deceptive in that A: the Eagles got the rub of the green in umpiring decisions (although the Ben Jacons non-decision was correct); B: the Eagles looked to be struggling early – this is put down to the inexperience of having the week off (cf Geelong in 2007 when they almost lost the prelim to Collingwood) and C: the Eagles goal-kicking was awful.  Summing it all up – the Eagles should have won by more; and this has caused the Hawks to be firm favourites for the grand final!

 

 

 

 

Best cert The Eagles should win (always likely in 2H); this website has also tipped the Dockers as certs (which they are NOT) – but just in an attempt to boost the score in footytips.com.au (the Dockers let us down, but you sholdn’t have tipped them as certs if you had a big run going)

 

Best Outsider: the Dockers are the best outsiders for the week (not good enough on the night)

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated: Let’s go aggressive here – Dockers to win or to lose by less than a goal (had a chance but fluffed it); Eagles to win by more than 34 points (looked likely but frittered away chance in front of goal)

 

Happy tipping!  It looks like one easy pick and one hard one – just like last weekend; go for the 2 home teams! (but the Hawks prevented an ALL WA grand final)