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Gauntlet 2017

The Gauntlet has already begun and you need to have got your round 5 tip in already; for those still IN (and that is 30,718 out of 33,966), this guide should help.
First the basic rules: you only need to tip 1 winner per week (easy, right!); but the catch is that you cannot double up on a team; so you need to plan ahead to ensure you don’t end up being left with tipping something like Brisbane to beat the Dees in Melbourne in the last round.

Because the comp starts in round 5, it end sin round 22 (round 5 = 1st tip; round 6 = 2nd tip….. round 22 = 18th tip); so the winner is announced after round 22 (or earlier if nobody makes it all the way through); in most years, some brilliant genius gets all the way through; but it is possible that a winner is announced earlier – especially if some huge favourites get knocked over – eg Hawks losing to Suns in R3 this year; Swans losing to Port in R1 this year; Hawks losing to Bombers in R1 this year); so you have 2 options:
A: assume you will need to tip all 18 teams to win – and then work hard on when to tip the lowly teams (you may end up tipping them when they are outsiders, but that is okay – so long as it is not something ridiculous = eg away games to the Eagles or Giants)
B: take the risk that you will only need 17 tips and then eliminate Carlton (for example – or maybe Brisbane)

Here is a simple chart of the games round by round and the approximate chances of each team winning; see below for how to use it

RD AD BR CA CO ES FR GC GE GW HA ME NO PO RI ST SY WB WC
5 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
6 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.7
7 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.5
8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.7
9 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 X 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 X 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
10 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6
11 0.4  X  X 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.3 X 0.4 0.7 0.6 X X X 0.7
12 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 X 0.8 0.7 0.6 X 0.5 X 0.3 0.6 0.4 X
13  X 0.2 0.2 X X X 0.8 0.3 X X 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7
14 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
15 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4
16 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.8
17 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.7
18 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4
19 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9
20 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.4
21 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.9
22 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.2
23 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.6

 

A: the simple way – believe the percentages above and work you way through – tipping teams in advance and sticking
to your plan once you have your 17/18 teams (double-check you don’t double up)

B: the complex way – make up your own numbers – maybe changing them as you go along; select your 17/18 teams in
advance but always keep an eye out for changes and key player news

Notes: Gawn is out for another 11 weeks approx; so the Dees might be a better chance to win late n the season
The Bombers are an unknown quantity – there is a chance that they may drop off late in the year – in which case the
Blues may have a chance to notch a win in round 20

Look for stand-out games for certain clubs – the Lions play Carlton in R18 with a 0.7 chance of winning; their only
other 50% or better game is Dockers at home in round 12.

Have fun – and remember how hard it is to win