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Grand Final 2015

Finals 4, 2015

SuperTipping results for R23: 5 winners for a total of 146 + 2 bonus pts = 148 and ranking dipped from 464 to 541 out of 46,981 tipsters (top 1% – elite)

Footytips.com.au streak: 1 out of 2 (with the Dockers losing and then the Eagles winning): Streak wiped out and then back to 1; ranking dropped from 426  to 439 (and will be difficult to do any better this late in the season) but still in top 2% (excellent).

50/50 tips: 0 out of 2 for the week (with the Dockers losing by too much and then the Eagles not winning by enough) and 29 out of 65 for the year = a result of 44% (anything above 50% is good).

 

Early thoughts for Grand Final: the Hawks are the favourites – mainly due to the home ground advantage – but the Eagles are the early tip; their preparation + last few weeks of the regular season has been ideal

Finals week 3, 2015

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 WCE* HAW* MCG WCE 13 HIGH Tipped to win

 

  • It is worth noting that different orgs have a different “home team” (team named first); the Eagles are named first in this website because they finished higher on the ladder.

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

 

 

1        WCE v HAW Saturday, October 3, 2015 at MCG 2:30pm (= 12.30PM in WA)

The Eagles in an upset

Weather:  dry; hot (for Melbourne in early October = top of 28); windy

Please view Penny’s comments on this game here:

http://longggey.com/finals-4-2015-penny/

 

The Hawks are favourites for this one – with most tipping a 1-2 goal win.  Their favouritism is based on the following:
A. Home ground
B. They have won the past two grand finals; and
C. The won pretty well in the west last weekend
D. 
The MCG is wider than Subi (where the Eagles have perfected “the web”)

They sound like good reasons, but here is the “yes” vote for the Eagles

A. They beat the Hawks 3 weeks ago by 32 points pulling up without Matt Priddis and Chris Masten
B. They have travelled out of W.A. once in the past 8 weeks (courtesy of 2 home finals, a week off in F2 and an “away” derby in R20) – all this compared to the Hawks having 3 trips to Perth in the same time frame
C. They seem to have peaked nicely for the game
D. The winning margins in the 2 prelims may have been a bit deceptive – with the Hawks flattered by their margin and the Eagles probably kicking themselves out of a bigger lead.


Penny’s analysis suggests a second half dominated by the Eagles.  Here analysis makes sense and should happen – unless we get a repeat of 2014.  If the Hawks can get far enough in front to break the game open, then the Eagles could possibly capitulate in the latter parts of the game.  In order for this to happen, the Hawks would need to be 40+ points in front in 1H or 30+ up in 3Q.

 

Now to minimise a few ideas floating around.  The 28 degrees will suit the Eagles a bit more, but it is not that big a deal.  This is worth a point or 2 to the West Coast boys. The other furphy is that it was, somehow, a plus for the Hawks to travel multiple times to Perth in the past few weeks.  How many times have you heard of east coast teams begging the AFL for a late season trip west?  Then answer is, of course, none.

 

The fact that the Hawks lost in F1 and the Dockers won in F1 (meaning 2 trips to Perth in the finals for Hawthorn were necessary on the road to a grand final appearance) put a huge dint in the Hawks’ flag hopes.  This negative has been glossed over somewhat by the 2 good wins in weeks 2 and 3.  But the extra travel has had the effect of wiping out any home state advantage the Hawks have.

 

The other thing to note from Penny’s write-up is the tendency of big grand final winning teams (who make the big game the following year) to play players who are a fair bit below 100%. 

 

The main interest here appears to be in Jack Gunston.  He trained okay Thursday after doing little on Wednesday, but must be some sort of risk on Saturday.

Then we have the non-changes: Luke Hodge remains in the team and is probably a bit ahead of Jack Gunston as far as being likely to play close to his beat is concerned.  And he is more experienced at playing through difficulties (like the 2008 prelim).

Then there is David Hale.  In the last 11, he has been rested (R19), been a late withdrawal (R21) and been red vested in 7 of the other 9 games – including the last 3 in a row.  And virtually nobody regards this as a topic of discussion!

 

He might be handy in stretching the Eagles defence height-wise early, but he is a huge risk – especially when one considers the other “doubtful” in the team.

 

Usually, the Hawks extra finals experience and Grand Final experience would count for a lot.  But because they won the big game last year by heaps, this effect is diminished.  Other big grand final winners have not been able to take advantage of a huge discrepancy in experience (eg Cats 2008 vs Hawks – who had been in the wilderness for a few years before finishing 6th in 2007) and Bombers in 2001 (although their Lion opponents had been slowly building).  The only back to back winner after a huge grand final win (Hawthorn, interestingly enough, in 1989) played in their 7th consecutive grand final against a team that had not played finals at all for 8 years (Geelong).  Now that IS an edge in experience.  Even then, they fell over the line by 6 points after leading by 40 points at QT.

 

The variance will be labelled as HIGH but it is getting close to being called EXTREME.  This is because of the likelihood that the Eagles will do much better in the latter parts of the game.

 

Eagles by 13 points in a minor upset
Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 13 points but the Hawks won by 46; analysis was miles off; in retrospect, maybe the finals + grand final inexperience of the Eagles told against them; they have been in the wilderness for about 10 years now and only made brief finals appearances in 2011/12; it appeared that certain Eagles players had played the game in their head to such an extent that they were not able to perform on the big day; about the only thing right in the analysis was to ignore the heat as a major factor; maybe the heat factor kicked in with 2 minutes to go!!  The other thing which helped the Hawks was that Hodge and Gunston were both fit and performed extremely well; this was, by no means, a cert on the day.  Here is a list of SC scores week 1 of the finals versus GF day for the Eagles:
Shannon Hurn: 137 down to 57
Mark Hutchings: 110 to 59
Yeo: 104 to 32
Nicnat: 100 to 64
Kennedy: 86 to 41 (and he didn’t even make the distance in 4Q when having a shot for goal)
Still, despite all that, the Eagles almost got themselves back in with a chance; they produced some great passes in 3Q – all of which hit their opponents on the chest!  Well done to the Hawks; they did it “THE HARD WAY” – the name of a book about them

 

 

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated: the year is going to end in the negative, but the Eagles to win or to lose by less than 6 points (never looked more than a slim hope)

 

Happy tipping!  There are a lot of plusses and minuses for each team, but the Eagles look well placed to win IF they can keep in touch for the first half  (but the chain snapped midway through 2Q)

Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 13 points but the Hawks won by 46; analysis was a miles off; Penny’s review gives us some good insight here:
http://longggey.com/finals-4-2015-penny/
I also note the following: the Hawks used up more than half the rotations in 1H; it was an “all or nothing” play that worked perfectly; had the game been close late, they would have had fewer rotations and the Eagles would have been fresher due to the rest in week 2 of the finals; but the match didn’t get close enough for this to come into play; what was underestimated was the fact that the Eagles had not played finals for a while and they seemed to suffer from grand final nerves a bit; the key piece of data missed both here and by Penny (regrettably) was the week 1 and 4 of finals rematch trends; sorry!