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Ratings review B4 R11

Ratings review B4 R11

 

Refer to Footy Analysis Wisdom / Ratings review B4 R5

The ratings there before round one  and before round 5 were:

 

                        R1       R5

Saints              10        10

Dogs               10         9

Pies                  9          9

Cats                 8          9

Lions               7          7

Blues               7          7

Port                 7          6

Dons                6          6

Eagles              6          6

Freo                 5          6

North               5          5

Hawks             5*        5

Crows              5*        4

Swans              5          6

Tigers              4          3

Dees                1*        3

 

 

* marked lower due to injuries

As a refresher, this means that, all else being equal, you would expect the higher rated team to beat the lower by the number differential in goals.   EG: Saints (10) would be tipped to beat the Blues (7) by 10 – 7 = 3 goals at a neutral venue with all other factors equal.

 

The ratings need to be reviewed periodically and now is a good time

 

Here are the Longggey revised ratings after round 10.  Comments have been added for each change in rating.

Saints              10

Cats                ↑ 10 (was 9)     Hawkins

Dogs                9                      No change but watch for possible downgrade

Pies                  9                      No change but watch for possible downgrade

Lions               7                     

Blues               7

Dons                ↑7 (was 6)       Ryder, Hille

Freo                 ↑7 (was 6)       General improvement + Bradley (if you can believe it!)

Port                  6                     No change but watch for possible downgrade

Eagles              6                      No change but watch for possible downgrade

Swans              6         

Hawks             5                      No change but watch for possible upgrade

North               ↓ 4 (was 5)      Injuries to Adams and Anthony

 

Crows              4

Dees                ↑ 4 (was 3)      Serious injuries abating

Tigers              3                      No change but note good form of Graham

 

Notes on a few teams:  This ratings system has a bias towards teams with big blokes doing well.  The reason for this is that it works.  Geelong is the first example.  Having lost Ottens for some weeks, Hawkins has really stepped up.  He averaged 61 Supercoach points in round 1 – 6 when Ottens played and 96 points since.  And his lowest supercoach points scores were in rounds 3 and 5 – the Cats only two losses.

 

The Dees began the year with virtually every significant big bloke injured or having an injury interrupted pre season.  (Jamar, Johnson, Meeses, Spencer, Watts). Martin rucked in this time.  This, along with injuries to Garland, Morton, Tapscott, Watts and Wonaeamirri led to the low rating of 1.  Remarkably, Jamar proceeded to star in the regular season.  Now Watts, Garland, Morton and Johnson are back from injury.  They were rated lower than the Tigers at the start of the season despite having a better list (assuming everyone was fit).  The quality of their youngsters has also lifted the rating

 

Now that we have progressed well into the season, the ratings and the ladder are getting closer to each other.  Not that it is always a perfect fit.  Some teams have a tougher draw for the first 10 weeks compared to others.

 

If you are struggling with your tips at this stage of the season, you need to review.  Any more than 8 winners off the pace (in a normal tipping comp) and you are probably too far back and may consider going for the weekly prize, if there is one.  If you are less than 8 off the pace, stick to your guns and do the analysis.  Then don’t focus on the tipping ladder (as if this is possible) week by week.  If you do, you may tend to do something silly “to catch up”.  Whatever you do, you can use the year to learn and review.

 

Longggey.