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Ratings review B4 R5

Ratings review B4 R5 2010

 

Refer to Footy Analysis Wisdom / Early Season Help.

The ratings there before round one were:

 

Saints              10

Dogs               10

Pies                  9

Cats                 8

Lions               7

Blues               7

Port                 7

Dons                6

Eagles              6

Freo                 5

North               5

Hawks             5*

Crows              5*

Swans              5

Tigers              4

Dees                1*

 

 

* marked lower due to injuries

As a refresher, this means that, all else being equal, you would expect the higher rated team to beat the lower by the number differential in goals.   EG: Saints (10) would be tipped to beat the Blues (7) by 10 – 7 = 3 goals at a neutral venue with all other factors equal.

 

The ratings need to be reviewed periodically.  There are two errors often made in re-rating teams.  One is to stick resolutely to your opinion at the beginning of the year.  If you do this, you may, for example, keep tipping Adelaide week after week waiting for them to improve; or keep expecting Freo to lose.  Assembly line workers may tend to make this type of error. 

 

The other error is to make changes too quickly.  This can be the more common error in the early rounds.  What can happen here is that you can write a team off totally after one round.  Or mark a team a top 4 material way too early.  What this type of analyst may have done is to rate Hawthorn very highly after demolishing the Dees in round 1 – only to see them begin a losing streak. Or, perhaps, write off North totally after the 104 point loss to the Saints in round 2 – and then see them win well the next week against the Eagles.  Government treasurers may tend to make this type of error. 

 

The correct middle road involves taking notice of each team’s form without being too quick to pull the trigger on your ratings.   The rule in re-rating: don’t re-rate by any more than 2 for any team.  The exception would be if sudden catastrophic injuries hit a team. 

 

Here are the Longggey revised ratings after round 4.  Comments have been added for each change in rating.

Saints              10

Dogs                ↓ 9 (was 10)    May be suffering from big expectations

Pies                  9

Cats                ↑ 9 (was 8)       Lonergan, Podsiadly              

Lions               7                      No change but watch for possible upgrade

Blues               7

Port                ↓ 6 (was 7)        Doubts on “new game plan” and Brogan struggling

Dons                6                      No change but watch for possible downgrade

Eagles              6

Freo                 ↑6 (was 5)       Ballantyne, Mayne, Barlow, Silvagni

Swans              ↑ 6 (was 5)      Hannaberry, Kennelly, McGlynn, Malceski, Seaby

North               5                      No change but watch for possible downgrade

Hawks             5*

Crows              ↓ 4 (was 5)*    Injuries abound

Tigers              3 (was 4)          Seem to have given up already; struggling in the ruck

Dees                ↑ 3 (was 1)*    Jamar, Bail, McKenzie + injuries abating

 

*  This refers to teams that had bad injuries early on in the year.  Of these three teams, the Hawks and Crows are still troubled by injuries.  The Dees seem to be on the improve in terms of injuries.  A quick further note on Melbourne and Richmond. The Dees were marked so low not only due to injuries but also because they had long term injuries to a few big guys.  The fact that Jamar was able to perform so brilliantly is the main reason for the update.  And Jamar had an injury interrupted pre season as well!  Richmond, on the other hand, had virtually a full list from which to pick at the start of the year (Foley being the only significant injury).  This was the logic behind rating Richmond at 4 and Melbourne at 1.  In terms of rebuilding the teams, Melbourne is quite a bit ahead of Richmond.  And while all looks gloomy for the Tigers right now, this website (having labelled the Dees as certain wooden spooners before the start of the year) is not yet ready to say that the Tigers have the spoon in the bag.

 

Note that it is too early to make “big calls” on teams.  The re-rating is done to improve tipping efficiency in the next six rounds – not to forecast the end of year ladder.  That will be done around mid year.

 

These will be reviewed once more approx round 10.  By then, the ladder will become more meaningful and the ratings and ladder positions will be more in line.

 

Last word:  if you are struggling with your tips, hang tough.  You shouldn’t be too far back yet.  Even if you are, then use the year as a learning experience.

Longggey.