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Round 1, 2015

Round 1, 2015

This write-up was done on the night of 01 April 2015 when only the Blues / Tigers teams were known.  The tips will remain the same as below in Supertipping (to ensure the “genuineness” of the tips given below).

Tipping comps:  the following tipping comps are up and running in 2015:

http://supertipping.heraldsun.com.au/
On this site, you will also find a new comp called “
hot streak” where you need to select 20 players – each of whom need to kick a goal each week.

They also have a “perfect 9” where you need to select the top Supercoach scores per game.  Big money if you get all 9 correct (but slim odds to do so) – with a $500 weekly prize to the best performer if nobody picks the entire 9

http://www.footytips.com.au/tipping/afl
This site includes “Streak” and “Flexi” via a drop down menu.
Streak is simply picking which teams are certs each week and trying to get as big a streak going as possible. Flexi gives you, in effect, the odds for each game.  You get more points for picking outsiders and less for favourites. Please note that you can change your tips at any time in this comp – as long as the game has not commenced.

footytipping.thewest.com.au also has a free comp with big prizes.

The AFL have a tipping comp at  https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses)

There are also other comps to be found at https://crownbet.com.au, http://www.sportsbet.com.au/,

and there may be others.

 

 

Round 1, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

CARL

RICH

MCG

RICH

26

HIGH

a tiny hope

2

MELB

GCS

MCG

GCS

11

HIGH

some small chance

3

SYD

ESS

ANZ, Syd

SYD

62

HIGH

no hope

4

BRIS

COLL

Gabba

BRIS

17

EXTREME

a definite chance

5

WBD

WCE

Etihad

WCE

11

HIGH

tipped to win

6

STK

GWS

Etihad

GWS

27

HIGH

no hope

7

ADEL

NMFC

Adel

ADEL

6

HIGH

a definite chance

8

FREO

PORT

Perth

PORT

2

EXTREME

tipped to win

9

HAW

GEEL

MCG

HAW

14

HIGH

some small chance

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamentalissues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

1        CARL vs RICH MCG Thursday, 2 April (7:20 pm)

Weather: cool and fine, breezy

Tigers, but not certs

CARL:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Matthew Kreuzer, Andrew Walker, Robert Warnock

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Bryce Gibbs (scored 82 Supercoach points), Kade Simpson (not his normal good number in NAB; no news – just a query) (103), Chris Yarran (84)
RICH:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: David Astbury, Reece Conca, Matt Dea, Nathan Foley

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Trent Cotchin (63), Chris Newman (36)

Clem Smith makes his debut for the Blues and Patrick Cripps is in the team and Kristian Jaksch & Liam Jones both play their first game for Carlton.

Taylor Hunt is named for the Tigers, while Kamdyn McIntosh was given a game after good pre-season form.

The surprise non-selections were Robert Warnock (didn’t come up and the upgraded Cameron Wood replaces him and Levi Casboult (emergency). 

For the Tigers, Chris Newman was named despite his heart issue recently, while Ty Vickery is an emergency and Reece Conca misses after a minor knee problem in the pre-season.


Dale Thomas is about to become a father in the next few days and the Blues hope that the birth can come at a good time.

The Tigers seem to have got through the pre-season slightly better than the Blues – who are missing their top 2 ruck choices and now rely on elevated rookie honest Cameron Wood. He will basically have to ruck on his own all night long with a little help from Sam Rowe – unless emergency Levi Casboult comes in (a late change is a distinct chance).

This situation should give Ivan Maric a win in the ruck. And, given the fact that Richmond is a higher rated team anyway, they should be the strong tip – but not strong enough to label them as certs.  They have the pressure of expectation on them – and they have come unstuck as favourites against the Blues a few times recently.

Maybe Mick Malthouse’s comments “cannot see the Blues losing a game” was all just some mind games for R1.  That makes more sense than any other explanation.

The variance is listed as high, but is borderline extreme.  These games often have wild fluctuations in the scoring patterns.

Tigers by 26 points, but not quite certs.
Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 26 points and they won by 27.  Firstly, apologies, I did select the Tigers as certs in the footytips comp.  But it was done because it is a “free hit” in game 1 and they were almost certs anyway; sorry for not clarifying this previously. 

Given that the experts were tipping an 11 point Tiger victory, the analysis looks pretty good.  But it is a bit tricky to review this because: the Blues lost Dale Thomas early and had 1 or 2 other injury concerns.  So maybe they could’ve finished closer.  But also the Tigers may have coasted a bit at the end and could’ve won by more.  They also took off the underdone Deledio.  Would this have been done if the game was in the balance?

The other issue is the variance.  The Blues went from 23 points up to end at 27 points down.  The variance probably should’ve been listed as EXTREME (for the momentum swings – not so much the end result, which was within the realms of expectation)

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2        MELB         GCS  MCG Saturday, 4 April (1:40 pm)

Weather: cool and fine, breezy

Suns, but not certs

MELB:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Chris Dawes (sus), Christian Petracca, Jack Trengove

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Jeremy Howe (119), Dean Kent (45 and had an early concussion test 1Q), Aidan Riley (dnp), Dean Terlich (dnp), Bernie Vince (dnp)

GCS:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Charlie Dixon, Tom Lynch (sus), Jaeger O’Meara (may play NEAFL)

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Gary Ablett (119, but didn’t look 100% after early tackle), Clay Cameron (dnp), Sam Day (42 and subbed off 3Q), Aaron Hall (dnp), Steven May (104), Tom Nicholls (dnp), Luke Russell (dnp), Rory Thompson (56), Peter Wright (dnp)

Recruits Heritier Lumumba, Jeff Garlett, Ben Newton and Sam Frost are likely additions to the Dees in R1. Chris Dawes is out suspended, so Jesse Hogan will get plenty of exposure in his debut.

Bernie Vince play 75-80 mins VFL NAB4 (recovering from a hammie), and Angus (we need more Anguses) Brayshaw did well in the same game in a bid to play R1.

However, the Dees are much better placed at the start of 2015 in terms of injury than in any of the recent bad years.  They haven’t won a R1 game for a decade – they are some small chance to win this one.

“Certainly Gary will play, there’s no doubt,” Rodney Eade said this week. Just want 500,000 SC players wanted to hear.  But he may be underdone – along with a long list of others mentioned above.  The Suns have “matched” Chris Dawes (suspended) by having the similar Tom Lynch suspended for this game.

Nick Malceski makes his debut for the Suns, along with the likely inclusions of Mitch Hallahan and Touk Miller.

The “underdone-ness” of the Suns is the reason that they are not tipped as certs.  They will certainly be the tip.

Suns by 11 points, with the Dees a small chance to cause an upset.

Post Match Review:  Suns were tipped by 11 points but the Dees won by 26.  Analysis was just fair.  The positive was that the Suns were not tipped as certs.  It is likely that the lack of match conditioning (the “underdone-ness” of the Suns, as mentioned above) was not given enough weight.  Perhaps the Suns took the Dees a bit too lightly as well.

The other thing was that all the Dees new boys (Heritier Lumumba, Jesse Hogan, Jeff Garlett, Sam Frost, Angus Brayshaw, Ben Newton, Aaron vandenBerg), fired and seemed to work together well.

Conversely, the Suns’ debutantes (Adam Saad, Nick Malceski, Touk Miller, Mitch Hallahan, Jarrod Garlett) were poor to fair, apart from Saad who exceeded all expectations.

The new boy factor explains the unexpected result.

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3        SYD  ESS   ANZ Stadium       Saturday, 4 April (4:35 pm)

Weather: wet (apologies for not
Swans easily

SYD:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Alex Johnson, Ben McGlynn

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Lance Franklin (90), Kieren Jack (126), Jarrad McVeigh (dnp), Sam Reid (45), Kurt Tippett (91)

ESS:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Kurt Aylett, Will Hams, Nick Kommer, Jason Winderlich

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: almost everyone (over a dozen of the top 22 have not played a NAB match), Jake Carlisle (25), Courtenay Dempsey (dnp), Dyson Heppell (117), David Myers (1 and subbed off 1Q), Tayte Pears (dnp)

The Swans are the certs of the weekend.  The Bombers have, effectively, had to play 2 games in R1.  The Tuesday “good news” is expected to take a big emotional toll on them.  Add to that the fact that most of the players will have had zero NAB matches.  Coaches often tell us that, no matter how hard they try, they cannot replicate “match fitness”.

And the Swans are higher rated and playing at home (well, in Sydney, anyway).  Plus they will be filthy about the first and lat games in 2014.  They lost the first one to the Giants (probably chalked it up as a win and were stunned), then were towelled up in the GF.  These two results will make sure that they are a bit more “forward in condition” than in 2014.

Swans by 62 points and certs of the week

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 62 points and they won by 12.

Firstly, apologies: Heath Hocking (dnp) should’ve been included in the underdone or “out” list above.

Next, apologies for getting this one so wrong; lucky to get out of it with a win.  It seems that the news of Tuesday spurred them on to greater heights.  But their lack of match practice (and the Swans eventually putting the score on the board) helped the Swans roar home for an unlikely (at 3QT) win.

It was a bit surprising that the Swans were so sluggish out of the blocks.  John Longmire said that they expected the Bombers to really come out firing.  It almost seemed that the Swans were going to concede the early initiative and rely on their better preparation to kick in later in the game.

Sometimes, you make a mistake in your analysis and don’t really get punished.  That is exactly what occurred here, except for getting the 50/50 wrong (see bottom of this report)

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4        BRIS COLL         Gabba         Saturday, 4 April (6:20 pm)

Weather:

Lions probably

BRIS:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Pearce Hanley, Ryan Harwood, Trent West

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Allen Christensen (91), Mitch Golby (dnp), Brent Staker (dnp)

The

COLL:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Levi Greenwood, Lachlan Keeffe (prov sus), Brent Macaffer, Ben Reid, Matt Scharenberg, Josh Thomas (prov sus), Clinton Young

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Paul Seedsman (dnp), Dane Swan (111)

Nathan Buckley mentioned Tim Broomhead, Patty Karnezis,

Paul Seedsman, Jordan De Goey &Ben Kennedy in terms of those who are ready to fill the gaps in the team – with the “outs” of Lachie Keeffe and Josh Thomas.  Seedsman is underdone and may not be an option in R1.

The Lions were favourites before the news broke; it needs to be remembered that Keeffe wouldn’t have played anyway – due to injury.

The Lions are being talked up as finals hopes in 2015 in some quarters.  That is a bit too optimistic.  And the Pies have been given zero hope of making the finals.

This is the sort of game that the Lions should win – but could easily lose.  It has “avoid” written all over it.

There are several players going into the game underdone.  Dayne Beams has gone from the Pies to the Lions and Jack Crisp the other way.  Both will make their debuts for their new clubs, along with

2014 team mates Allen Christensen (BR) and Travis Varcoe (CO).

If the Lions can hold their nerve under pressure, they should win.  But it is a risk.  This is an extreme variance game.

Brisbane by 17 points, but not totally convinced.
Post Match Review: Lions were tipped by 17 points but the Magpies won by 12.  Analysis was a fair bit off and the wrong team was tipped.  The game was listed as an “avoid” game.  Given the huge momentum swings in the game, the one correct forecast was that the variance was extreme.

Brisbane has previously put in a shocker when highly favoured in round 1.  In 2013, they impressively won the NAB Cup (the last time they play a NAB Cup final), then were towelled up by the lowly Dogs in the season opener.  The Dogs had 6 goals to nil at QT and never looked like losing.

It is as if the Lions have real trouble with expectations.  Of interest is the Rohan Bewick (SC points of 88, 100 and 71 in NAB) had 31 Sc points while Ryan Lester (50, 82 & 67 in NAB) had 36 SC points

But credit needs to go to the Pies – who lost Keeffe and Thomas unexpectedly earlier in the week.  This seems to have galvanised the team and they probably could have killed the game off late in 3Q.

The Lions finished very hard in the high humidity, but were probably a bit fortunate to get so close.  And now they have lost Tom Rockliff for several weeks.

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5  WBD vs WCE  Etihad Stadium Saturday, 4 April (7:20 pm)

Dogs in an upset

WBD:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Tom Liberatore, Clay Smith

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Shane Biggs (dnp), Nathan Hrovat (dnp), Fletcher Roberts (dnp)

WCE:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Jack Darling, Xavier Ellis, Mark Hutchings, Eric MacKenzie, Callum Sinclair

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Mitch Brown (1, but off early injured), Nick Naitanui (92), Will Schofield (dnp), Scott Selwood (89)

The WCE coach reckons Tom Lamb (played and 56 after coming on as sub 1Q), Jackson Nelson (31) and Liam Duggan (played WAFL and excelled) are all in contention to play as early as this week (“as early as” means “probably not just yet”, but we will soon see.

One new boy certain to start for the Dogs is Tom Boyd – who will do a bit of rucking.

The Dogs will be picked here in an upset with an asterisk (which looks like this:*):  the Eagles could win if Nick Naitanui fires.  He has been battling with injury for a couple of years now; he probably won’t be at his top right away, but it is a risk.

Looking at the list above, it appears that the Eagles are currently harder done by in terms of injuries and underdone players.  Of note is that the Eagles have already lost Beau Waters (not listed above as he has already retired) after Darren Glass retired last season.  Then they lose another defender in Eric MacKenzie for the year.  His likely replacements are Tom Barass (great name) and rookie Rowen Powell.  But both of these have had interrupted preparations – as has Will Schofield.

So the Dogs should be able to do some damage when they get the ball forward.

The Eagles’ NAB form was nothing flash and only got close to the Dockers for a while in NAB3 when big Sandi was subbed off.

Dogs by 11 points

Post Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 11 points and they won by 10.  Well, one cannot get much closer – so the analysis was excellent.

It must be said, however, that the Eagles backline woes was not helped when Mitch Brown went down with a knee injury early in the game

Also – forgot to mention that Crameri (77) was underdone – having been “banned” from NAB games.

Anyway, the experts (in making the Eagles favourites) appeared to underestimate the defence problems that the Eagles had (exacerbated by the injury to Brown, plus Schofield being NQR yet and playing WAFL currently).  The Dogs deserved to be narrow favourites.

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6        STK  GWS Etihad Stadium Sunday, 5 April (1:10 pm)

Giants comfortably

STK:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Jack Billings, Sam Gilbert, Leigh Montagna (110*), Brodie Murdoch, Farren Ray, Seb Ross, Arryn Siposs, Jimmy Webster, Nathan Wright

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Tom Hickey (dnp), Nick Riewoldt (89), Shane Savage (101)

GWS:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Tim Mohr (playing NEAFL in return from injury), Jonathon Patton, Lachie Plowman, Liam Sumner, Jacob Townsend

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Tom Scully (63 then subbed off in 4Q)

The Saints are bound for the spoon in 2018.  To make matters worse, they begin with the longest injury list in the league.  Had they been healthy, this may have been a winnable game.

As it is, they are too hurt to be a genuine chance.  They may debut Tim Membrey and / or Paddy McCartin – especially if Riewoldt doesn’t play.  It is anticipated that he will get to the line for R1, despite dealing with a recent family tragedy.  Jack Lonie and Ahmed Saad (who is currently only a rookie).

The Giants have a better age and experience profile in 2015 – with the inclusions of Ryan Griffen and Joel Patfull; with their plethora of emerging stars, this is one away game they can put in the bag.

Giants by 27 points and certs

Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 27 points and they won by 9.  Analysis was just fair, although the Giants probably should have blown the game away in the first half.  Then they decided to hang on late in the game and almost lost it.  A total shock was that Leigh Montagna* played (listed as 3-4 weeks on 23 March) – and he did well with 110 SC points.

Even so, the Saints were brave in defeat – given their long injury list.  Griffen was just so-so in his first game for the Giants.  Despite the close call, it is deemed that the “cert” call was still correct – just.

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7 ADEL vs NMFC  Adelaide Oval Sunday, 5 April (2:50 pm)
Weather: a bit breezy

Crows probably

ADEL:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Brad Crouch, Andy Otten, Brent Reilly, Sam Shaw

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Kyle Cheney (dnp), Sam Kerridge (dnp), Scott Thompson (dnp)

NMFC:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Nathan Grima, Lachlan Hansen, Aaron Mullett

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Leigh Adams (but coach said he is not considering retirement), Aaron Black (dnp), Ben Brown (late withdrawal), Taylor Garner (dnp), Kieran Harper (dnp)

Phil Walsh said Kerridge and two-time best and fairest winner Scott Thompson were both “touch and go” for Round One.  This means they probably should rest them one more week.  A common mistake is to play players in R1 when they really need another week.

The Roos have plenty of tall players who are out or underdone.  But they are higher rated than the Crows.

The home ground advantage, in the end, swings the tip to Adelaide, but without great confidence.  This is about the hardest game to tip in R1.

The new coach may help the Crows – especially early.  There is an excellent article where Brenton Sanderson details where he went wrong as a coach.  It is very frank and enlightening.

At the end of the season, it is expected that the Roos will be higher, but the Crows may be just slightly better placed to win this one.

Crows by 6 points.

Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 6 points and they won by 77.  Wow! The analysis was a long way off.  The explanation mostly comes as a lethal (for the Roos) combination of 2 above comments (now underlined).  Both these factors played a big part in the result.

The Roos were clearly underdone – and it showed by the way they fell away late after making a brief game of it in 3Q.  The pressure of the Crows seemed to take them by surprise.

And the Crows were obviously underperforming in 2014 and really wanted to make a big statement first up.  They achieved that.  Even so, the margin was a surprise.

The tip was correct but, in view of the underlined comments above, the variance should have been labelled as extreme.

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8  FREO vs PORT  Subiaco    Sunday, 5 April (4:40 pm)

Weather: light winds and warm to hot
Port in an almost 50/50 game

FREO:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Ryan Crowley (prov sus); Zac Dawson, Anthony Morabito, Alex Silvagni

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Hayden Ballantyne (48), Michael Barlow (75), Hayden Crozier (dnp), Paul Duffield (74), Tendai Mzungu (dnp), Nick Suban (30), Colin Sylvia (dnp), Matt Taberner (dnp)

PORT:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1:

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Hamish Hartlett (86), Angus Monfries (8 when came on late as sub), Paddy Ryder (77), Jackson Trengove (78), Chad Wingard (121)

These teams are relatively evenly rated and normally the Dockers would be tipped with the big home ground advantage and April heat (a term that makes no sense to us Melbournians).

But their list of injured and underdone players is a long list indeed. It is just enough to dissuade the keen analyst from tipping them in this game.

Whole port also has a few injury concerns (with Chad Wingard being the least likely to play), their pre-season has been smooth without setting the world on fire

Paddy Ryder looks to be the only new face on this game.  What a great help he will be to the 2014 lone ranger ruckman Matthew Lobbe.

Nick Suban and Hayden Ballantyne were both considered unlikely a week ago, but now are tipped to play.  One hopes they are brought back too early – with unpleasant consequences.

It is possible that Port could romp away with this game – if Freo have a critical mass (an important concept at Easter time) of players who aren’t fully fit and match ready.

The dangers in tipping Port is that:
A. One doesn’t often tip against Freo at home – given their recent record; and
2. (oh how some will wish that “2” was a “B”) Port may be lulled into a false sense of security – about their 2015 chances, that is, not so much about their prospects of a R1 win.

It is a tip not to get too excited about.

Port by 2 points, but with an extreme variance

Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 2 points but the Dockers won by 7.  There was a very important late omission in this game: Matthew Lobbe out and replaced by John Butcher (who, incidentally, kicked the first goal of the game).  Sadly, the tip would have been different had Lobbe not been selected on Thursday night. To compound matters, his replacement (Ryder) had not played a NAB game due to the Essendon story.

This was a tough one to pick because one team had a fair few players out, while the other team had players underdone.  Maybe, in the end, Lobbe going out may have made the difference.  In any case, it was labelled as almost 50/50 and turned out that way.

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9 HAW vs GEEL MCG           Monday, 6 April (3:20 pm)

Weather: Showers clearing; light winds

Hawks, but not certs

HAW:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1:

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Grant Birchall (dnp),  David Hale (dnp), Matthew Spangher (dnp), Brendan Whitecross (dnp)

GEEL:

Missing from best 25 or so for R1: Daniel Menzel, Jackson Thurlow, Nathan Vardy

Underdone from best 25 or so for R1: Nakia Cockatoo (46), Josh Cowan (dnp), Hamish McIntosh (dnp), Steve Johnson (131), Dawson Simpson (38 and subbed off), Rhys Stanley (dnp)

The Geelong coach confirmed that Mitch Clark will play, while Nakia Cockatoo and Cory Gregson are in the mix for R1.  It is likely that Gregson, at least, won’t be in the 22.

For the Hawks, Jed Anderson would be a good chance to line up i his first senior match since 2013.  James Frawley is also expected to debut for the Hawks despite his NAB form being just average.

The pure statistical analysis of this match screams out: PICK THE HAWKS.  And that will be done.  But they won’t be tipped as certs.

They have the shortest injury list in the league and have had a seemingly flawless pre-season. And the extra long off-season break due to the Cricket World Cup should work in their favour.

But they are playing the Cats who, although suffering from more injuries than Hawthorn, are notoriously fast starters.  And they often get up big time for these “Kennett” clashes.

Hawks by 14 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 14 points and they won by 62.  The analysis was a fair way off; the problem here was that the fundamental analysis tended to suggest a comfortable Hawthorn win, but the likelihood that the Cats would be really up for this game was overrated.

The late withdrawal of Andrew Mackie hurt the Cats somewhat (but not to the tune of 62 points).  The other big thing was that the Cats inexperienced players really struggled.

Gregson was okay when he came on late as the sub, but Darcy Lang was really poor and had a few clangers when the game was up for grabs.  Dawson Simpson looked to be all at sea and then was red vested with his shoulder strapped.

Nakia Cockatoo got caught a couple of times, but wasn’t awful.  Mitch Clark did well in his first game for the Cats.  Similarly, James Frawley looked quite good for the Hawks as well.

The Hawks looked really sharp and have had a great pre-season.  They will be very hard to beat in the early part of the year.

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Best cert: Swans (won after giving fans a scare), then Giants (fell in after looking likely to win big)

Best Outsider:  the Dogs (they won in a thriller), then Port with plenty of outsiders a chance to win (just fell short)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Swans to win by over 27 points (never looked a hope); Dogs to win or to lose by less than 10 points (always looked a good chance and they, in fact, won it outright)

Happy tipping!  This looks like a round with chances for multiple upsets.(and there were : Melbourne, Collingwood and Western Bulldogs)