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Round 10, 2015

Round 10, 2015

SuperTipping results for R9: 7 winners for a total of 56 + 2 bonus pts = 58 and and ranking improved from 2,014 to 1,288 out of 46,240 tipsters (top 3% – excellent)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 2 out of 2 (Swans and Hawks both doing it easily – not too hard to pick those two).  Streak is up to 8. Ranking improved from 5,944 to 2,532 and in top 13% (reasonably good –  and moving up the ladder because SO MANY tipsters got wiped out in R8)

50/50 tips: 1 out of 1 for the week (With the Dogs winning easily) and 9 out of 23 for the year = a result of a poor, but improving, 39% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).

From now on, those still in the comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gantlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear.

Early thoughts for R10: the 2014 grand finalists, Hawks and Swans, again look like certs this weekend along with the Giants; quite keen on the Dockers, Crows, Port and Pies; the Dons / Cats and Roos / Eagles games look to be the hardest to pick

Round 10, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

FREO

RICH

SUBI

FREO

32

EXTREME

A tiny chance

2

CARL

ADEL

MCG

ADEL

35

HIGH

No hope

3

GCS

SYD

GLD CST

SYD

67

HIGH

No hope

4

ESS

GEEL

DCKLNDS

GEEL

3

EXTREME

A definite chance

5

PORT

WBD

ADEL

PORT

25

HIGH

A tiny chance

6

GWS

BRIS

HMBSH

GWS

69

HIGH

No hope

7

NMFC

WCE

HOBART

NMFC

11

HIGH

Tipped to win

8

STK

HAW

DCKLNDS

HAW

34

HIGH

A tiny chance

9

MELB

COLL

MCG

COLL

22

HIGH

A tiny chance

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

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FREO         vs.      RICH          Subi  Fri, 5 June 6:10 pm

Weather: dry; light breeze

The Dockers to keep rolling on – probably
The Dockers are tipped in this game, but the Tigers have been pretty good in coming back from the brink to sit at 5-4.  They go to the bye after this match and this is a concern.

Freo have begun to look at time like they are due for a loss, but have been able to fight off the challengers.  If the Tigers can maintain their intensity, they may have a sneaky chance of overcoming the Dockers – who still may be due to slightly underperform.

Conversely, if the Dockers can get some sort of break on their opponents, then the Tigers might fall away late.  It all depends on how close the Tigers can be in the mid to late stages of the contest.

The fundamental analysis says The Dockers by 4-5 goals and the experts agree.  The Tigers have had 2 x 6 day breaks and a trip to Adelaide in R8.

It is thought that the Tigers might do just slightly better than expected.  But the variance is EXTREME because, if the Dockers get a good break, the bye-bound Tigers could collapse.  But if it is close at the end, the Dockers might be shaky as they try to hold on to this big winning run.

If your run of certs is small, you could whack the Dockers in as certs.  But they won’t be called certs here. Dockers by 32 points and almost certs.

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 32 points but the Tigers won by 27.  Analysis was miles off, but there was one small positive.  That was that they were not tipped as certs – because the Dockers appeared that they may be due for a loss.  However, the loss didn’t occur as expected (Freo falling away late).

So the positive here is that a huge number of people had their “streaks” wiped out to zero.  But, had you been on a decent run of certs and heeded the warning, you wouldn’t have been one of them.

And, of course, the EXTREME variance call.

The Dockers are slightly stretched down back and, with Michael Johnson going out so early – and with other key defenders out injured – they struggled.  Pav has a bit sore, according to the coach.

Of interest was that the Dockers and Crows (who played a tough game last week) both underperformed this week (Dockers by 56 points and Crows by 17)

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CARL vs. ADEL  MCG Sat, 6 June 1:40 pm

Weather: dry; light breeze

The Crows should do it
The Crows lost their 2014 game prior to the bye by being very slow out of the blocks in a game they had chalked up as a win.  Fast forward 12 months and the situation is almost identical.

The shock from last year should be enough to help them get over the line.  If they remember the 2014 shock loss (in R7), then they should be expected to fly out of the blocks and hold the Blues at bay.

But the Blues have their best team in for a while.  Back comes Chris Judd, Marc Murphy and Matthew Kreuzer.

The problem with the Blues is that Kreuzer is still underdone; Michael Jamison and Bryce Gibbs are still out; Dale Thomas is out injured.

Rory Sloane comes back for the Crows.  Since he was out with a cheekbone issue, his fitness should be fine (unlike Kreuzer).

The Blues won 4Q last weekend – which was their first win in a quarter for 3 – 4 weeks. Was it a green shoot or a false dawn?  Probably half way – but not enough to give them a realistic hope of winning.

The Crows by 35 points and certs

Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 35 points and they won by 9.  Analysis wasn’t that great.  It should have been noted that the Crows had a tough game against the Dockers and were likely to be a bit down on their form.

Positives for the Blues were that Kreuzer did quite well despite limited match practice, Murphy starred and Lachie Henderson was much better in his second game back from injury.  But poor old Juddy didn’t last long.

Brodie Smith came back from concussion and was a bit below his best; Sloane was, likewise, a bit below top form upon return from injury.

A small positive is that the Crows found something under pressure and managed to win.  But it is not ideal when a “cert” is only 3 points up late in the game.  In retrospect, the “cert” call was a bit risky.

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GCS  vs. SYD       Metricon Stadium          Sat, 6 June 4:35 pm

Weather: slight chance of a shower; moderate winds & humidity

The Swans are the certs of the week
The Suns are just too injured to be competitive.  The Hawks went easy on them last weekend and now they lose Charlie Dixon (who has been okay except for last weekend) with both Jack Martin and Alan Sexton injured.  Josh Glenn is still not back and there was a small doubt on Adam Saad.

Their replacements aren’t stars, but Peter Wright is a high draft pick tall who has impressed in the NEAFL of late.

The Swans eased off a bit last week.  If this is a sign of complacency, then the Suns may be some chance to surprise, but it is more likely to be a slight downer after a huge GF replay match the week prior.

Swans by 67 points and the certs of the week

Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 67 points and they won by 52.  Analysis was okay.  In summary, it felt like a game where the Swans could have won by 67 points, but lacked a bit of killer instinct once the game was won.  They probably looked at the draw and decided to be “UP” for the Hawks and then subconsciously take things a bit easy for two weeks (Blues and Suns) before their R11 game vs Roos.

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ESS   vs.      GEEL         Docklands   Sat, 6 June 7:20 pm

The Cats – without any great confidence
These teams both have problems at present.  Geelong has Rhys Stanley as a “test” this week and this is a critical thing – with all the other Cat rucks out injured.  Josh Walker has come in to add some height, but the emergencies aren’t rucking prospects.  If Stanley doesn’t come up (or plays poorly), the Cats are in strife.

Joel Selwood has been struggling as though he is injured – nothing officially known.  If 100%, this is the sort of match he might lift for.

The Dons have been a bit patchy since the WADA appeal and now Jobe Watson goes out – along with old man Dustin Fletcher.  Their replacements aren’t the same quality as Watson.  The concern is that they are in a bit of a trough.  They are at 4-5 with this match and then the Eagles in Perth.  So it looks like: win R10 or be 4 and 7 at the bye.

And when the Dons go into a trough, it can be a deep one!

But the Cats have similar problems at 4-5 and an away game vs Port to come.  They are in a good / shocker / 3rd week pattern.  In r6-8, they performed 53 up on expectation then -23 then +47; this began another pattern with the +47 being followed by a -39.

The chances of them overachieving the second time are slightly less, but it is still a minor positive lead.

They are on a 6 day break back from Perth, but they did have a 9 day break prior.

Avoid this game if you can; it is an EXTREME variance game.  The Cats by 3 points and you might want to split your tips here; watch for news on Stanley

Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 3 points and they won by 69.  The analysis was miles off – and, with Stanley being a late withdrawal –there was a good case to select Essendon at that stage.

The Dons can “fall off the cliff” at times – and this is what seems to have happened. When Stanley was a late withdrawal, Tom Bellchambers was expected to dominate in the ruck a la Aaron Sandilands playing against a primary school team.  But he was subbed out at HT with minimal impact on the game.

The Bombers actually dominated the early few minutes – but missed shots and were only up 3 points to nil.  The relatively “even” 1Q had the Bombers down 0:5 to 3:1 and then the Cats scored 6 goals to none in 2Q.

This will be put down as an Essendon downer 80% and the Cats being on top of their game (without a ruckman) 20%.

The positive is that the game was labelled as EXTREME variance.  This proved true.

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PORT vs. WBD   ADEL Oval          Sat, 6 June 7:10 pm

Weather: dry; light to moderate breeze

Port look like they are back
The Power powered home last weekend with a dominant second half against a Dee team that appeared to lose confidence.

This win snapped a 3 game losing sequence for Port.  Often when a team does this with a big win, it is a bad sign and they can often collapse the following week.  But Port tends to get on a roll after such wins.  It seems that the Paddy Ryder Matthew Lobbe team isn’t working just yet, but there is no reason to panic just yet.  Ryder was out last week and Port did well. He remains out for R10.

Looking at the Dogs, they hit back hard after a real Darren Crocker vs the Dees the week prior.  Remember how the 2014 last round loss to the Giants (and post-season happenings) motivated them to excel last weekend?  That motivation isn’t there now, but the Dogs could’ve gained some confidence.

They lose Marcus Bontempelli and Liam Picken (who is flying this year), but get back Jake Stringer and Stewart Crameri.

With a shorter injury list and the home ground advantage, Port look like winners.  But they won’t be tipped as certs – just in case the Dees lulled them into a false sense of security last weekend.

Port by 25 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 25 points and they won by 39. Analysis was reasonably good.  It now appears that Port is back in good form – which they generally hold once they find it – and the Dogs dropped off late in the game.

From a technical viewpoint, the critical goal was the first one of 4Q.  The Dogs had booted a goal to get it back to 10 points half way through 3Q.  Then there was NO SCORE AT ALL4Q (as if they were playing with a medicine ball) until the 7 minute mark of 4Q when Port broke the drought.  Had the Dogs got the goal, it was really “game on”.  But the fact that it went the other way deflated the Dogs.  Then, with a bye coming up, they dropped off quickly.

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GWS vs.      BRIS Homebush  Sun, 7 June 1:10 pm

Weather: dry; light to moderate breeze

The Giants are certs
The Lions are too injured to have a hope.  They lose five players to injury and they had hoped to get back Darcy Gardiner + Jack Redden.  Neither made it back from injuries.

The Giants had an absolute shocker last weekend, but were ambushed by the Dogs and outsmarted on the day.  They should be able to bounce back against lowly opposition here.  Getting Phil Davis back is a plus, but Rhys Palmer is still out

No need to spend too much time on this one.  The Giants by 69 points and big certs

Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 69 points and they won by 30.  Analysis was ordinary.  It was expected that the Giants would coming out steaming, but they seemed a little flat – and were just doing enough to win.  Credit to the Lions – who really put in.  They were “entitled” to drop off but fought on very well late in the game.

Still, the Giants were correctly tipped as certs – even if they didn’t win huge!

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NMFC         vs.      WCE Blundstone Arena          Sun, 7 June 3:20 pm

Weather: showers and windy

The Roos in an upset
Please review Penny’s comments on this game here: http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-10-2015-penny

The observation by Penny looks correct here.  That is, the Roos look like a good tip without being certs.  Muddying the waters slightly is the fact that the coach disappears due to an op.  Last year the premiers lost their coach for 5 weeks (Brendan Bolton coached for 5 wins – but fell over the line in the first game against the Giants when they were expected to win by a street).

Taking a squiz at the Hawks last year, the interim coach did well and overachieved in each game except game 1.  Why so bad in game 1? If this is a trend that North repeat, they would get totally smashed this weekend.

The most likely reason is that the Hawks were distracted against a then lowly opposition.  This is not going to happen this week.  The Roos are as angry and upset (with themselves) as can be and they will be highly focussed.

Of interest is that their only other match vs Eagles in Hobart was similar to the Roos in R9 this year.  They were 27 points up at HT and got overrun.

Not this time!  Going with Penny’s analysis, the Roos to jump out to a good lead and then hang on.

Keep an eye on Andrew Swallow.  He may need to pass a fitness test this weekend.  And Sam Wright + Liam Duggan may both have to pass fitness tests.

Roos by 11 points (if so, Darren Crocker will have a great coaching record)

Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 11 points and they won by 10.  Analysis was very good and it is always great o correctly tip an outsider.  However, they didn’t really “jump out to a good lead” – they only led at QT due to the howling wind.  Their best quarter was their last when they kicked 4:1 to 3:3 against the wind.

A big help for the Roos was that their captain Swallow returned and did well; and also Ben Brown was back in top form after an ordinary performance the previous week (1st up after injury)

“North a little bit more desperate”, said Eagles coach Adam Simpson.  The Eagles wasted their chances a bit – with 5 more scoring shots and winning the inside 50s 63 to 49.

It appears that extra desire may have got the Roos over the line (plus a little bit of trickery from Boomer Harvey – to pay the umps back for taking out Trent Dumont)

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STK  vs. HAW     Docklands   Sun, 7 June 4:40 pm

The Hawks are almost certs
The Hawks are likely to finally win 2 in a row as they come into the bye.  Jordan Lewis comes back in but may need to pass a fitness test.

The Saints got Brisbane at the right time last weekend and stormed home after being 5 goals down early in the game.

The Saints went down to Hawthorn by 145 points last time they played.  The Saints will be fighting hard to improve on this, but it is unlikely that they can win.

With the bye looming and a likely win, the Hawks could possibly either start slowly (a la Adelaide in 2014 vs Melbourne R7) or ease off late if well in front (like the pies vs Carlton in the same round).

This bye concern could reduce the final margin here, but the Hawks should win.  The bye concern will mean that the Hawks won’t be tipped as certs (but may regret this reticence later).  Last year the Saints beat Freo in a huge upset as the Dockers were heading to their R18B bye.

Hawks by 34 points and almost certs

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 34 points and they won by 63.  Analysis was a bit off here and, in retrospect, they should have been tipped as certs.  Of note was that To Hickey was subbed off for the Saints after being also subbed off the previous week.  It is likely that he was NQR on the day.

But the poor part of the work was not allowing enough for the absence of Luke Dunstan and Maverick Weller.  Weller, especially, would have been handy as a tagger.

The Hawks had been expected to, perhaps, drop off late if they had the game won, but this didn’t really happen.

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MELB         vs.      COLL         MCG Mon, 8 June 3:20 pm

Weather: possible late shower; breezy

The Pies are tipped with some confidence
The Pies stormed home to win last weekend and looked good in the wet.

The Dees fell apart in the Alice and will need to improve a lot to have any chance here. Dom Tyson was expected to return for the Dees, but is still out injured; and Nathan Jones copped a knock last weekend – but had 9 days to recover.

The Melbourne “ins” are interesting – Max Gawn especially.  He looked likely to be the number 1 ruckman earlier in the season, but then had to wait while both Mark Jamar and Jake Spencer were preferred.

Taylor Adams goes out with an injury.

The Dees are on a “good shocker/ 3rd week” pattern and this may be a slight positive for Melbourne.

But the Pies are higher rated and will be tipped – but not as certs.

The Pies by 22 points but not certs

Post Match Review: Pies were tipped by 22 points and they won by 25.  Analysis was pretty close to the mark in terms of final margin, but the pathway to that margin was a bumpy ride – with both teams getting on big runs (5 in a row to the Pies – followed by 6 in a row to Melbourne, then 4 to Pies and 4 to Dees).  This is an extreme variance pattern – which doesn’t properly shown up in the Q by Q scores.

Gawn looks like he belongs (“they {Dees} had a few hit-outs to advantage” said Nathan Buckley) – apart from a really bad clanger.

Travis Cloke kicked beautifully on the day.  This probably helped to offset Melbourne’s ruck dominance.  In the end, despite a 25-point winning margin, it still felt “right” not to tip the Pies as certs

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Best cert: the Swans (never in doubt); then the Giants (won comfortably) and Crows (just got there); others are tempting, but that will do it for this week


Best Outsider:  the Roos are the best outsider of the week (and they won); Essendon are a great chance also (never a hope)


Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): The Crows to win by over 29 points (way off); the Swans by over 57 points (just failed); the Giants by over 48 points (didn’t finish well enough); the Roos to win or to lose by less than 4 points (they won); the Saints to win or lose by less than 52 points (they tried hard but got overrun late)


Happy tipping!  This is week with lots of big favourites and a couple of close games – but it is not as easy as it looks! (with the Tigers being the big upset winners)