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Round 11, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R11, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 10 Jun 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: this might have been my worst successful tip yet! The Roos won (which was a positive) and they did lead at quarter time.  But they kicked with a howling gale first up – so the 3 goal lead at QT hardly qualified as “flying out of the blocks”.  In fact, the Eagles kick the first one and the Kangas gradually got going late in 1Q.

Similarly, the Kangas did their best work late in the third term – kicking the last three goals of their use of the wind after the 25 minute mark.  They then played a great final term to clinch it.

But it still beats getting a tip totally wrong.

 

This week, the decision is easy. There is a game where one team comes in with form that cannot be trusted.

Looking at the Cats, they had an easy kill against a Blues team really down and out, then were towelled up by the Eagles in Perth.  They returned to Melbourne to play the Bombers in what was essentially a 50/50 contest – which they won by 69 points.

It appears that they caught the Bombers at a good time and that Essendon has sunk into one of those deep holes that they get into from time to time. Looking at their form from round 3 onwards, they beat a poor Blues team by 21 points, lost to the Pies by 20, fell over the line against the Saints by 2, were beaten easily by Freo in Perth, lost to the Roos, thrashed a badly beaten up Lions team, then lost to the Tigers and were thrashed by the Cats.

After missing some early shots and being down a bit at the first change, they totally fell apart in the second term. The win flattered Geelong – who have a huge injury list.

Port, meanwhile, have a small injury list and appear to be just getting back on track. They generally hold form well once on a winning run.

Furthermore, the Cats have been to Perth for the late Sunday game in R9, then a 6 day break to play Essendon, then another 6 day break and another trip to play Port.

Port is a close to a total cert as you can get – despite being only favoured by about 2 goals.

Mark Port down as a big cert, in my opinion.  Expect the Cats to have a good patch in the game, but they won’t be able to sustain it.