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Round 11, 2015

Round 11, 2015

SuperTipping results for R10: 8 winners for a total of 64 + 2 bonus pts = 66 and ranking improved from 1,288 to 726 out of 46,517 tipsters (top 2% – excellent)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 3 out of 3 (Swans and Giants both doing it easily – and the Crows barely falling over the line).  Streak is up to 11. Ranking improved from 2,532 to 450 and in top 3% (reasonably good –  and moving up the ladder because SO MANY tipsters tipped the Dockers as certs in R9)

50/50 tips: 1 out of 5 for the week (Disastrous – with the Roos winning being the one positive; the Giants, Swans and Crows didn’t win by enough and the Saints didn’t get close enough to the Hawks) and 10 out of 28 for the year = a result of a very poor, 36% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.

From now on, those still in the comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear.

Early thoughts for R11: the Dockers and Eagles look likely to bounce back from unexpected losses in R10; Port look likely to beat the Cats; the final three games are intriguing – slight leaning to Swans, Pies and Dees

Bye: ADEL, BRIS, CARL, HAW, RICH, WBD

Round 11, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

PORT

GEEL

ADEL

PORT

41

HIGH

No hope

2

GCS

FREO

GLD CST

FREO

51

HIGH

No hope

3

WCE

ESS

SUBI

WCE

28

EXTREME

A tiny hope / no hope

4

NMFC

SYD

DCKLNDS

SYD

13

HIGH

Some chance

5

COLL

GWS

MCG

COLL

16

HIGH

Some chance

6

STK

MELB

DCKLNDS

STK

9

HIGH

A definite chance

Bye: ADEL, BRIS, CARL, HAW, RICH, WBD

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

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PORT         vs.      GEEL         ADEL Oval          Fri, 12 June 7:20 pm

Weather: dry; light winds

Port by a fair bit
Please refer to Penny’s analysis of this game here:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-11-2015-penny

Of note is that Port is missing the following players from their best 22: Jared Polec, Paddy Ryder & Jackson Trengove.

The Cats are without Jimmy Bartel, MitCh Clark, Mitch Duncan, Daniel Menzel (but he’s been gone for years) Nathan Vardy and then take your pick from Hamish McIntosh and Dawson Simpson.  Add to that list multiple fringe players out for the Cats compared to 1 or 2 of those out for Port.

The expected win margin of 2 goals or just over seems to reflect the teams being of equal standing + the home ground advantage for Port.  But Port’s injury quotient is under 10 and it is over 20 (higher means worse) for Geelong.

There are 18 players on the published (a couple of days ago) Geelong injury list vs 6 for Port (not taking into account ability of those out).  The 18 includes Rhys Stanley (test) who is in an.  It seems certain that he will play (being the only real ruckman – if you can call him that) but he may struggle to be 100% and also battle to match Matthew Lobbe.

Added to that, though not a show stopper, is that Shane Kersten may be in some doubt despite being on the plane to Adelaide. Michael Luxford and Jake Kolodjashnij are the emergencies who have travelled with the team to Adelaide.

To top it off, the Cats have had 2 x 6 day breaks, playing in Perth R9 and now back to Adelaide R11.  Port has had a 7, then 6 day break and has 2 home games in a row.  This means that the Cats are likely to have either a flat 1Q or 4Q (with 4Q being the more likely).

Port by 41 points and certs

Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 41 points but the Cats won by 23.  Analysis was miles off and apologies for labelling a LOSER as a CERT.

A key to the Cats winning was the great form of Stanley.  He, Mark Blicavs and Josh Walker overcame Lobbe; other than that, the Cats defied the travel factor and played their best for 2015 – with their middle tier players doing well.

It now appears that Port is heading for the middle of the table and not the top. One more time: SORRY

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GCS  vs.      FREO         Metricon Stadium          Sat, 13 June 1:40 pm

Weather: shower or two; light winds; moderate humidity

The Dockers should bounce back
The Suns were hoping to get Harley Bennell and Sam Day back from injury, but no such luck.  And they lose another three to injury from last week’s team.  They do get back Charlie Dixon from exile and also Nick Malceski (has been in the NEAFL and may still not be 100% – the Suns’ website says “Rodney Eade has been forced to play prized recruit Nick Malceski before he is ready out of pure necessity….. Matt Shaw’s back and an emergency, but he’s not right. He’s been really sick and will probably only get half a game in the seconds”).  So things are pretty crook at the Gold Coast.

The Dockers have made four changes – unusual for them this year – but they still should be too polished for the very injured Suns.

Lee Spurr comes back in and the club says he should be okay; Alex Pearce is back in to bolster the defence, with Jack Hannath as a possible assistant.

Both these teams go to the bye – and this makes things a bit tricky to predict.  The Dockers should win this easily – and they were blown away by the Saints in R18a last year before the late year bye.  In that game they were awful early and never got back into it.

Expect them to be back to their normal good self in the first half this time – and well in front at half time.   But, if they do get a big break in the game, it is unclear whether they will slacken off somewhat or the Suns may just capitulate.

Maybe the more likely scenario is for the Dockers to increase their lead as the Suns look desperately for the bye.  But it is uncertain – because the Dockers also desperately need a break.

The Dockers are coming off a Friday night shocker and may slightly exceed expectations overall.  Dockers by 51 points and certs of the week.

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 51 points and they won by 7. Analysis was a mile off.  It appears that the Dockers (a la R18A last year) took their holiday a week early – except for the Brownlow boy – who is a chance for another 3 votes.

The Dockers should have won by more, but the Suns had numbers back and made it difficult.  The “drop-off late before the bye” didn’t occur as the game was unexpectedly too tight for that.

Rodney Eade said that the Suns have turned the corner. Hopefully, they will get player back after the bye.

Although the Suns probably were never going to win, the margin was a bit close for a CERT. But the cert fell over the line.

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WCE vs.      ESS   Subi  Sat, 13 June 2:35 pm

Weather: dry; light winds

The Eagles
The Bombers were really awful last week after missing a few gettable shots early.  It was a typical Bomber shocker that we have seen in recent seasons.  In 2014, they underperformed expectations for 6 weeks in a row early and then 4 in a row late in the year; it was a run of 6 late in 2013.  Comparing to a similar team, the Tigers worst run in those years was 2.

This looks like another slump coming up. They have only lost 2 in a row now and have a trip to Perth before going to the bye.  If they are a fair way down in the mid to late stages of the game, yet another huge win at home looms for the Eagles.

But they won’t be tipped as certs and here is why:  the big question to be answered here is: are the Eagles a top side or a middle of the pack type team?

It they are a top side, then they cannot lose.  But they won 6 in a row before their last loss (a bad one, but not a total disaster).  Middle teams are very “iffy” in this situation.  In the 12 times in recent years that a middle team has won >=4 in a row and then lost, the week after the loss has generally been a downer.  It needs to be a big downer here – because they are hot favourites.  Of those 12 occasions, the 4 worst results against expectation have been -35 points, -46, -69 and -76.  Any of these type of results would see the Eagles lose or be in danger of so doing.

It’s just enough to cause concern.  But the Bombers need to respond strongly to last week’s shocker.  This is more likely than some may expect, because R10 was their second shocker for the year.  Middle rated teams like Essendon can often bounce back strongly after such a loss.

But we are talking about Essendon and the “drop-off before the bye” factor is likely to kick in if the elastic band between the teams is broken by some Eagle dominance.

Scott Selwood was just average in his second game back (the week after playing against his brother).  Expect an improved output from him this time.

David Zaharakis was expected back this week for the Dons, but didn’t make it.  Bellchambers has been dropped (“looked sore” said Chris Scott last weekend) and Jake Carlisle has been named as the ruckman.  May be good news for Nick Naitanui.

All logic points to an easy Eagles win, but there is just enough caution to make this an EXTREME variance game and not tip the WCE as certs.

Eagles by 28 points, but not certs but changed to certs after Port lost – taking streak back to 0

Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 28 points and they won by 50.  Analysis was fair and note the change to the cert classification (but only on the basis of being wiped out on Friday night).  As it turned out, the Eagles were the easiest winners on the weekend – and the Dons really are in a slump.

As far as the technical analysis above is concerned, the easy win by the Eagles means that they will now be classified as a top team (= top 6 usually) – because they were able to excel the week after a loss which broke a big winning streak.

Nicnat scored 147 Sc points against not much opposition – and this helped the Eagles to a comfortable win.

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NMFC         vs.      SYD  Docklands   Sat, 13 June 7:20 pm

The Swans in a tricky one
The Swans have had the wood over North in recent times – bar for the Roos walloping Sydney in Sydney in the wet early in 2014 when the Swans’ form was patchy.

Their most recent meeting was a prelim final thrashing which propelled the Swans into the 2014 Grand Final.  Prelim thrashing re-matches don’t have any set trend.  Sometimes the beaten team excels in the re-match.  Other times, it is line ball; sometimes the winner wins big again.

The Roos won last week by trying harder than the Eagles, according to Adam Simpson. It will be hard for them to have the same advantage this time – the “incentive” is less – in a strange sort of way.

The Swans head to the bye after this game, but the Roos have their bye a week later.  Given that this game is so crucial for both teams, it is hard to imagine the Swans taking things easy (except if there is a blow-out one way or the other late in 4Q).

The Swans slightly better status in terms of injury and their higher rating is just enough to offset the home state advantage for the Roos.

And how will the interim coach go second up?  Maybe there is a slight risk of his team underperforming after the stress of the previous week. Jarrad Waite may be in doubt – Majak Daw the likely replacement if needed.

Swans by 13 points, but not overly keen on the game.

Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 13 points and they won by 16.  Analysis was reasonably good – but almost everyone was tipping a modest Swans win anyway.  It appeared that the Swans were somewhat struggling to hold on late in the game (maybe they thought that they had already done enough to claim the 4 points) with the bye coming up.  But they were never far enough in front to be really comfortable – so maybe some credit needs to be given to the Roos for fighting back

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COLL         vs.      GWS MCG          Sun, 14 June 1:10 pm

Weather: dry; light winds

The Pies, but not certs
The Magpies have been pretty good lately, but haven’t knocked over a top 8 side yet.

Jarryd Blair may have to pass a fitness test before playing this weekend

Meanwhile, the Giants have Hawthorn’s scalp and a nice win over the Crows, but their other wins have come against lowly opposition also.

There are queries on both teams – so the home team will be tipped in this instance.  There is a sense that the Giants are more “off the boil” than Collingwood right now.

The GWS are still in relatively new territory – being in the top 5 – and may need their R13 bye more than the Pies require their R12 one.

The danger in tipping the Pies is that their injury quotient is higher than that of the Giants.. and they had to play on Monday.

But they are the more logical selection and are tracking nicely for a top 8 finish.

Pies by 16 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Pies were tipped by 16 points and they won by 42.  Analysis was pretty good and the win needs to be put into perspective. The Pies were just a bit in front when the Giants’ injuries hit hard.  Then the Giants fell away badly.  Maybe the 2 – 3 goal margin tipped was about right – although the Giants could have fallen away anyway away from home due to being a fledgling club and with little crowd support.

So happy with the preview of this one.

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STK  vs.      MELB         Docklands   Sun, 14 June 4:10 pm

The Saints – possibly
The Dees have lost 20 in a row at the Docklands.  But they were not expected to win too many of those 20 anyway.  But they don’t seem to like playing there and their fans stay away.

Their last meeting with the Saints was R1 at Docklands in 2014.  This was one game the Dees were expected to win, but they fell short by 17 points.  Their previous encounter was R13 in 2013 on a Sunday at 4.40pm the week after the QB Monday clash with Collingwood.  The Saints won this one as well, but it was at the MCG.

The Saints “flew out of the blocks” in 2014 with 2 for 2, but then had an ordinary year.

Adam Schneider and Jack Sinclair are “omitted” but they have both gone back to the rookie list and are, therefore, ineligible.

The only important “in” for the Dees is Dom Tyson.  He will be a big help, but they lose Aaron Vandenberg and Colin Garland.

A big in for the Saints is Sam Gilbert; and Luke Dunstan is an important inclusion.

Maybe the Dees might not come up too well after the Monday loss – although they did have an upset win vs the Bombers last year after the QB Monday match.  On that occasion, the Bombers dominated the inside 50s but lost by a point.

Not helping is that Chris Dawes and JKH are still out

Without any great confidence, it’s the Saints by 9 points.

Post Match Review: Saints were tipped by 9 points and they won by 2.  Analysis was okay here and this was a classical 50/50 game – with the lead changing twice in the last minute of the game.

The Saints didn’t get a lot out of Gilbert and Dunstan.  If you tipped the winner – well done; but the best preview would have been: DON’T KNOW.

Those who tipped the Dees were possibly a bit stiff

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Bye: ADEL, BRIS, CARL, HAW, RICH, WBD

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Best cert: the Dockers (just got there) and Port (struggled and then lost)

Best Outsider:  the Dees (in front with 19 seconds to go) and Roos (honest but not quite good enough) may be the best chances, but it’s not a great week to have great confidence in outsiders.  The Giants have some chance and the Bombers are a tiny chance – despite been given no hope (both these 2 a long way off a win)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Port to win by over 17 points (never a hope) ; Freo by over 46 points (never a hope)

Happy tipping!  This is week where conservative tipping should be rewarded, but there aren’t many safe certs (after game 1, safe tipping worked well)