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Round 12, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R12, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 17 Jun 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: oh dear!!! I was way off the mark – and it was hard to find an excuse.  But this relegates Port to a middle of the road side officially – and with no hope of winning the flag.

 

This week, it is tempting to go for Port – who are coming off a Friday Night Shocker.  But there is also a sense that the Blues have had the pressure valve released recently and may play with more freedom.

The game to look at is the Dogs and Lions.  They are both coming off the bye.

Brisbane had a respectable loss away to the Giants before GWS had all those injuries.  The Giants had one good quarter (2ND) and then coasted to the line. It seemed to be a meritorious effort – given the Lions’ injury list.  But it was more likely that the Giants were on a mini-downer – having been pole-axed by the Dogs the week prior and then facing the Pies in R11.  There only motivation against the Lions was to get the 4 points.  That they did.  So the effort by the Lions has been overrated.

Meanwhile, the Dogs played Port in R10 and were blown away late after being a chance in the last term.  What happened was that the match was scoreless for a huge period of time from mid third term until a last term goal by Port broke the game open.

It often happens that a goal after a long break (of “no goals”) often sees the goal-kicking team run away with things (unless the other team can answer almost immediately).  So it is likely that the win by Port was overrated and that the Dogs fell away because they had lost and the bye was coming up.

As such, the Dogs’ loss was not as bad as it looked – using technical glasses to look at the game.

The Dogs are favoured to beat the Lions this weekend.  I expect them to be absolute certs and to win by more than the 4 goals that most are tipping them by.