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Round 12, 2015

Round 12, 2015 (starts Thursday 18 June and preview to be completed by 2 AM Thursday!)

SuperTipping results for R11: 5 winners for a total of 69 + 2 bonus pts = 71 and ranking improved from 726 to 690 out of 46,570 tipsters (top 1% – excellent)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 1 out of 3 (Port bombed out, then the Dcokers fell over the line – and the Eagles won well {Eagles added AFTER Port lost}).  Streak was wiped out and now back up to a modest 2. Ranking dropped 450 to 688 and in top 4% (but it will take time to build up another decent streak).

50/50 tips: 0 out of 2 for the week (Disastrous – Port couldn’t win at all and the Dcokers never looked like winning by enough) and 10 out of 30 for the year = a result of a very poor, 33% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.

Still alive in the Pick 5 – only because the Saints hit the front in the last few seconds of the game.  Many would have, sadly, bombed out when Joey Montagna kicked that late goal.  The AFL website tells us that 115,427 tipsters have been eliminated – and a mere 59,665 tipsters remain in Pick 5.  If you are one of the chosen few – you still have 2 x 6 game weeks to negotiate.

From now on, those still in the Gauntlet comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear.

Early thoughts for R12: the middle round of the bye throws up some tricky games. Likely tips are the Hawks, Tigers, Port, Giants, Dogs and Cats.  The Dogs look like the best cert of the week; the Giants and Blues look like the best outsiders.


Bye: COLL, ESS, FREO, GCS, STK, SYD

Round 12, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

ADEL

HAW

ADEL Oval

HAW

10

EXTREME

A definite chance

2

RICH

WCE

MCG

RICH

21

HIGH

A small chance

3

CARL

PORT

MCG

PORT

26

EXTREME

A small chance

4

GWS

NMFC

Homebush

NMFC

10

HIGH

A definite chance

5

WBD

BRIS

Docklands

WBD

47

HIGH

No hope

6

GEEL

MELB

Geelong

GEEL

24

HIGH

A minuscule chance

Bye: COLL, ESS, FREO, GCS, STK, SYD

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

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Bye: COLL, ESS, FREO, GCS, STK, SYD.

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ADEL         vs.      HAW ADEL Oval          Thurs, 18 June 7:20 pm

Weather: slight chance of rain and breeze abating

The Hawks – without great confidence

Both teams coming off the bye
This looks easy if you consider that the Hawks are 1 of 3 teams who can win the flag playing against a middle of the road team.

But the Hawks haven’t been totally convincing yet this season – often winning like a champion team and then struggling the following week.  As an example, they have lost to the Giants and Dons!!  Neither team is expected to play finals now.

Of interest is that the Crows have overachieved coming off the bye in 2013 and 2014. In 2013, they had a good win away vs the Suns.  Their 2014 win was a home upset win over the Pies.  They are similarly unfancied this weekend and there is a chance of hysteria repeating itself.  In the 2014 game, they started slowly, but did extra well in 2&3Q (and a top 2Q in 2013 after the bye).  Maybe a similar pattern may emerge in this game. Expect them to be really up for this game – but that doesn’t guarantee them a win against a top team, of course.

Given that the Hawks have fewer injuries (but Will Langford not yet back) than the Crows (who still await Brad Crouch to come back from the SANFL), it is expected that the visitors should win.

Luke Hodge is on the place – despite training with a compression bandage on his left calf during the week.

But the Crows are probably a little better than their recent form suggests. Because of the doubts on both teams, the variance will be listed as EXTREME – mainly because of the likelihood of big swings in momentum – more so than a very unexpected end result.

The Hawks by 10 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 10 points and they won by 29; analysis was mixed.  Firstly, the experts were tipping the Hawks by about 3 goals – so they were closer – and they would’ve given the Crows little chance.  The positive was that the variance was labelled as extreme and the scoring patterns were just barely in the EXTREME range – with the Hawks losing a 25 point lead and falling behind (albeit only by a point) in 3Q and then drawing away again.

The other thing was that the Crows had a good patch in 2/3Q, but it wasn’t sustained enough.

Summing it all up: a C- for this analysis; barely a pass

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RICH          vs.      WCE           MCG Fri, 19 June 7:50 pm

Weather: slight chance of rain and breeze abating

The Tigers should do it

Richmond coming off the bye; Eagles have a R13 bye; if any unexpected scoring patterns occur in such games, it is usually one team or another having a shocker of a 1Q or 1H.
Possible significant team changes:

RICH: none
WCE: see below re McGovern and rested players

The key to this game is how the Tigers come off the bye after a huge win in Perth in R10.  If they are on song, then they would be HUGELY favoured to win.

The Eagles have had 2 x 6 day breaks and this includes a trip to Tassie.  They actually rested Tom Barrass (if Jeremy McGovern fails to get up), Scott Lycett, Fraser McInnes and Jackson Nelson to ensure a healthy squad for Friday night. 

This helps in terms of additions to the team, but the ones who played may be quite weary.  Matt Rosa played his first game back in the WAFL last Sunday and won’t be considered due to the 5 day break.

Both teams are equally rated, so the home ground advantage is significant here.  Also, t the Eagles lack (due to long term injuries) tall defenders – and the Tigers have some potent tall forwards.  Another reason to tip the Tigers.

With no ruckman to speak of, the Dons were didn’t really offer up a lot of opposition to the Eagles last weekend.  It will be a stiffer test this time.

Tigers by 21 points and they would be labelled as certs had it not been for coming off the bye.

Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 21 points but the Eagles won by 20.  Analysis was a long way off. The headline probably sums it up best “Hardwick laments a lack of intensity”.  “Lack of intensity” means “didn’t come up after the bye”.  Everything else was in the favour of the Tigers.  Rosa played for the Eagles 2nd up after a 5 day break and most of the other players were coming off 2 x 6 day breaks for the Eagles.

This was one that got away from Richmond.  The only positive here was that the Tigers were not tipped as certs because of the caution about the bye.

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CARL         vs.      PORT         MCG Sat, 20 June 1:40 pm

Weather: slight chance of rain and moderate breeze

Port is the tip

Carlton coming off the bye; Port have a R13 bye; if any unexpected scoring patterns occur in such games, it is usually one team or another having a shocker of a 1Q or 1H.
Possible significant team changes:

CARL: Bryce Gibbs likely to come in and Michael Jamison also a chance to return; Patrick Cripps was injured in R10, but no news from the club; he may be a test; Chris Judd is an out, while Lachie Henderson and Ed Curnow both had some minor niggles but should play; Chris Yarran is a possible inclusion after playing in the VFL prior to the bye

PORT: Jackson Trengove likely to come in

Port was highly fancied but couldn’t get the job done at home last weekend against Geelong.  It was a bad loss for Port – who had far less injuries than their opponents – it was a FNS Friday Night Shocker.  Teams can often perform well after such shockers – especially middle of the road teams in the middle of the season.

With this in mind, it is tempting to tip Port as absolute certs; but the urge will be resisted.  Another factor that makes this a bit tricky is trying to assess the Blues.  How will they come off the break?  Their last loss was perhaps a morale-boosting loss (or at least a stress-relief loss) and this may enable them to play with more freedom.  If this occurs, then Port may also be “tighter” – trying NOT TO LOSE a game they should win.

These concerns make this an EXTREME variance game; but Port is definitely the tip.  Port by 26 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 26 points but the Blues won by 4.  Analysis was a fair way off, so that part wasn’t too flash.  But the positive news was that

The team has lost confidence, according to coach Ken Hinkley.

It also seemed true that the pressure valve has been released at Carlton – and that they played with a bit more belief.  It was also a great relief NOT to tip Port as a cert.

The EXTREME variance call was correct – when the end result and the scoring patterns were reviewed.

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GWS vs.      NMFC         Homebush  Sat, 20 June 4:35 pm

Weather: shower or two; breezy

The Roos to win – probably

Both teams have a R13 bye
Possible significant team changes:
GWS: out go Shane Mumford, Stephen Coniglio, Phil Davis and Joel Patfull – all injured; the coach has told us ahead of time that Caleb Marchbank and the much hyped Jack Steele will both come in this week; Rhys Palmer was among the best in the NEAFL and looks likely to be an inclusion.
NMFC: Nick Dal Santo is likely to return from a long break

The Giants were going along very nicely until they were down a couple of goals against the Pies last weekend and then copped 4 serious injuries. The problem is that three of them are “talls”.  Their defence will be particularly hard hit – and Todd Goldstein will enjoy playing on an inexperienced ruckman.

Strange as it may seem, players coming off a long break often do well first up.  This should apply to Dal Santo.  Prior to the Giants getting those injuries, they were showing signs of needing a rest (being still a young team).  If this is correct – and the Giants drop behind by the critical amount – then they could fall away badly late in the game.  It is more likely, however, that they will remain close enough to avoid this possibility.

The Roos have been reasonably good recently – coming from behind to beat the Eagles and then being competitive against the Swans last round.

But the Giants cannot be totally discounted; they may be able to dig deep and find something.

North by 10 points, but not certs.

Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 10 points and they won by 56.  Analysis was reasonably good here – despite being a long way off the mark in terms of points.  The thing that saved the analysis was the “if”.  The Roos were able to get the significant break and then just ran away with it.

The Roos dominated centre breaks and this helped them get that break.  Not helping the Giants was that they had 2 late withdrawals – Andrew Phillips and Tom Scully.  The late withdrawals meant that the Giants had 7 changes for the game.  This is too many to give them a really good chance to beat a middle to top type team.  The late changes – pushing the Giants over the “too many changes” threshold – would have changed the tip to something like Roos by 24 points plus Giants falling away badly late if the game is lost.

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WBD   vs.   BRIS Docklands   Sat, 20 June 7:20 pm

The Dogs are certs
Both teams are coming off the bye
Possible significant team changes: Marcus Bontempelli and Liam Picken are good chances to return for the Dogs; four possible inclusions for Brisbane are Ryan Harwood, Daniel McStay, Darcy Gardiner and Jack Redden

Please refer to Penny’s analysis here:.
http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-12-2015-penny

The Dogs do, as Penny says, stand out as the cert of the week – because there is less of a risk factor with them.  Both they and their opponent are coming off the bye.  And the overall form of the Dogs is superior to that of the Lions.  Plus they have fewer injuries – even though the Lions are getting a couple back this week.

The Dogs had a horror stretch when they lost to the Saints and Dees either side of a close loss to the Dockers.  Expect them to be revitalised by the break and – with winnable games against the Saints, Blues and Suns after this week, they can eye off a top 8 spot (although staying there after that may be harder).

The Dogs by 47 points and the certs of the week

Post Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 47 points and they won by 72. Analysis was excellent in this case; most experts were tipping the Dogs by about 4 goals or less.

Firstly, Penny was right on the money.  In fact, everything pointed to a big Doggie win – injuries, home ground, form, rating.  It was just a case of the experts taking too much notice of the form of each team prior to the bye (Lions fair with an even longer injury list than n R12; Dogs falling away late to a Port team that struggled twice since).  Analysis well done and very satisfying!

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GEEL         vs.      MELB         Simonds Stadium Sun, 21 June 3:20 pm

Weather: cold; windy

The Cats to do it for Corey Enright

Both teams have the R13 bye
Possible significant team changes: Rhys Stanley and James Kelly are out for the Cats; matching that is Jack Grimes and Cameron Pedersen out for the Dees; Chris Dawes is a chance to return, but is a bit underdone

Milestone games are usually ignored, but this one may actually help the Cats.  They have a long injury list with an injury quotient of 27 and what looks like an easy win against a lower opposition just before the bye.  There would be a temptation to take this game easy – bar for the 300th game of a favourite player.

Helping the Cats out is that fact that the Dees have a fairly sizeable injury list themselves – 22 is their injury quotient.  There other query is: how will they recover from their shock loss last week?  It won’t be as emotional as a case where they were looking like winners all day and dropped off late.  In fact, they looked like losing it for most of the final term.

Max Gawn is a big plus for the Dees.  “Who?” you may ask.  He is an up and coming ruckman and the Cats will have Mark Blicavs and Josh Walker up against him.  The Cats have been able to conjure tricks in the absence of a recognised ruck in recent weeks; this will be another challenge.

This Cats will be not be marked as certs, but you may consider tipping them as such – so long as you are not risking much.

Again, with both teams going to the bye, there may be a chance for a team to drop off their intensity late in the game.

Cats by 24 points but not certs

Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 24 points but the Dees won by 24; margin perfect, but wrong team (insert frown here).   The problem was putting a bit too much weight on the Corey Enright 300th game and not enough on the fact that the Cats had a nine day break leading up to the bye and they may have just chalked this one up as a win.

A big tick for the comment above on Max Gawn; he was the difference and the Cats finally paid for their lack of fit ruckmen.

The other positive is that the Cats were not tipped as certs; hopefully, this saved someone’s streak.

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Best cert: the Dogs are the most likely certs this weekend (romped home)

Best Outsider:  the Crows are the best tip for an upset win (not good enough

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Richmond to win by over 6 points (never looked likely); the Dogs to win by over 26 points (always looked safe late in the game)

Happy tipping!  This is week where conservative tipping should be rewarded, but it may be trickier than it looks (and it was VERY tricky)