Round 13, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R13, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 25 Jun 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: if only Peter Perfect Brock could see me now.  Tipping the Dogs to win big turned out just perfectly – after a brief scare early after half time.  Let me bask in the glory for a while – without becoming too conceited


This week, two matches will be considered in which tipping the winner looks easy.  Remember when we looked at the Dogs vs Giants match a few weeks ago.  The Dogs had “marked this one in their calendar” way back when the fixture came out.

Well, the Hawks have done the same after throwing away a match-winning lead in round 2 against Essendon.  They had all the momentum and only lost because of complacency.  To be fair, the Bombers looked totally cooked half way through the final term.  But the Dons rose “like a Felix from the ashes (as my friend Mal Prop often says) and snatched an unlikely win.

The Hawks won’t be in such a charitable mood this time.  The most likely times for them to excel this time would be early and late.  That sounds contradictory, but they would want to put a space between themselves and the Bombers early on – maybe have a good lead at QT.  They they will be mindful of the R2 error – and really want to put the foot down in the last half of the final quarter.

They are expected to win by 7 goals anyway, so this is not much use to many tipsters.  I would expect them to maybe win by a touch more than that.

Next, there is Sydney vs Richmond. It is pretty hard to make a case for the Tigers after they seemingly got the Eagles at the right time and still couldn’t win last weekend.  But there are two things favouring Richmond.  Firstly, their effort was a borderline FNS (Friday Night Shocker) and that may motivate them to excel this weekend.

Secondly, they had a shocker first up after the bye.  Teams that do this tend to exceed expectations the following week.  In 2012-2014, there were 17 teams which underperformed by 15 points or more following the bye.  Of these, 13 exceeded expectations the following week and 4 underperformed again.  Overall the average over-performance was 29 points (but only 19 points for those who underperformed in the range of 15-29 points after the bye).

Given that the Swans are expected to win by 4 goals, this technical trend makes an apparently safe game quite risky.

My advice is NOT to tip the swans as certs – and to expect the Tigers exceed expectations – to win or to lose more narrowly than expected.