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Round 13, 2015

Round 13, 2015 (starts Thursday 25 June at 6.10PM WA time = 8.10pm Eastern) and preview to be completed by 2 AM Thursday!)

Analysis is done with only the teams for the Freo / Pies game known; this is done to give those who have to tip in office hours Thursday as much help as possible; please refer to expected changes for games 2 – 6 versus actual changes on Thursday night (but don’t over-react to unexpected outs)

SuperTipping results for R12: 3 winners for a total of 72 + 2 bonus pts = 74 and ranking slipped from 690 to 794 out of 46,611 tipsters (top 2% – excellent)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 1 out of 1 (with the Dogs breezing in).  Streak is now back up to a modest 3. Ranking dropped from 688 to 730 and in top 4% (but it will take time to build up another decent streak).

50/50 tips: 1 out of 2 for the week (Tigers losing was not helpful, but the Dogs won by heaps and save the ship) and 11 out of 32 for the year = a result of a very poor 34% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.

Down the gurgler in R12 in the Pick 5 – along with most others. There are a mere 306 tipsters remain in the comp

From now on, those still in the Gauntlet comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear.

Early thoughts for R13: the last round of the bye throws up some tricky games. Likely tips at this early stage would be Dockers, Swans (in a danger game), Hawks, Crows, Dogs and Blues


Bye: COLL, ESS, FREO, GCS, STK, SYD

Round 13, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

FREO

COLL

Subi

FREO

33

HIGH

No hope

2

SYD

RICH

SCG

SYD

13

HIGH

A definite chance

3

HAW

ESS

MCG

HAW

49

HIGH

No hope

4

BRIS

ADEL

Gabba

ADEL

9

EXTREME

A definite chance

5

STK

WBD

Docklands

WBD

38

HIGH

No hope

6

CARL

GCS

Docklands

CARL

9

EXTREME

A definite chance

Bye: GEEL, GWS, MELB, NMFC, PORT,WCE

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

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Bye: GEEL, GWS, MELB, NMFC, PORT,WCE

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FREO         vs.      COLL         Subi  Thurs, 25 June 6:10 pm

Weather: dry; light winds

The Dockers to regain form

Both teams are coming off the bye

Freo is missing Zac Dawson, Michael Johnson and Alex Silvagni from their defence – and this was a topic of conversation for Ross Lyon this week.

Based on the form of each team just prior to the bye (Dockers lost to Tigers in Perth then fell over the line against a depleted Suns team in QLD – Pies comfortably accounted for an improved Dees team, then smashed the Giants), this would seem to be a close call.

But the Dockers needed the rest after being up for a long time.  They are a higher rated team than the Pies, have less injuries and have the home ground advantage.  They were probably in a heavy training phase to round out the few matches prior to the bye.

The Pies got GWS at the right time – with multiple injuries hitting the Giants on the day.

And, just as Freo has a problem down back, the Pies have a ruck problem – with number 1 ruckman Brodie Grundy out injured.  A plus for Collingwood is that they have done okay travelling to Perth in recent years.

But that won’t be enough help.

Dockers by 33 points and certs

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 33 points and they won by 7.  Analysis was not all that flash.  It is never good when a cert wins by such a small margin.

Both teams were coming off the bye – and maybe the Pies came off the bye better. But they should also be given credit for their great pressure.  In the end, the Dockers had just enough guns to win, but could’ve easily lost this one.

Apologies for the stress caused by those who tipped the Dockers as certs, but the cert tip just snuck over the line

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SYD  vs.      RICH          SCG  Fri, 26 June 7:50 pm

Weather: showers gone well before game time and light winds

The Swans, but not totally convinced

The Swans had the bye last weekend and the Tigers had their bye a week earlier

Possible significant team changes:

Swans: Isaac Heeney may return, but few changes expected
Tigers: Corey Ellis is a definite out; Chris Newman is a likely in

Please refer to Penny’s preview of this game here:  http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-13-2015-penny
This looks like a nice game for the Swans.  The Tigers couldn’t beat the Eagles when the West Coast team were travel-weary and Richmond had had a comfy rest.

But it appears that the Tigers just didn’t come up after the bye too well.  Teams that have a shocker after the bye tend to overachieve the following week (see Penny) and this statistical fact means that the Tigers have a definite chance to win.  But it is enough to get them over the line?  Maybe, but it is unclear.

They play a 2014 grand finalist away and the Swans have few injuries. The most likely thing to happen may be for the Swans to fall over the line.

Swans by 13 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 13 points but the Tigers won by 18.  Analysis was better than it looked at first glance. Most people were tipping the Swans as absolute certs – so expecting the Tigers to do better than expected AND to give them some chance to win was a positive.

Penny’s analysis deserves a pat on the back as she was more bullish on the Tigers.

The chances of Richmond had a boost at the selection table when Mike Pyke went out injured for the Swans.  The Tigers would not have been tipped outright after this change – but the chances of an upset win increased.

In hindsight, the Tigers didn’t come off the bye too well the previous week – and the Swans didn’t come off the bye too well this week.  And coach Hardwick noted that the side is more settled now than earlier in the season.  This is even more evidence that the Eagles loss was just a “bye blip”.

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HAW  vs.    ESS   MCG Sat, 27 June 1:40 pm

Weather: dry; light winds

The Hawks to get revenge

The Bombers had the bye last weekend and the Hawks had their bye a week earlier

Possible significant team changes:
Hawks:  Will Langford and Matt Spangher are both chances to get back in

Dons: Dustin Fletcher is still out – along with Tom Bellchambers, while David Zaharakis is expected to return with Jason Winderlich a chance to return; Shaun McKernan is expected to be elevated from the rookie list to do the rucking duties – else it may be Jonathan Giles to get the job

Please refer to Penny’s preview of this game here:  http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-13-2015-penny

These teams played in R2.  In R1, a seemingly underdone Bombers team led the Swans by around 5 goals at 3QT, but got overrun.  Next up, they played Hawthorn.  The Hawks knew that they could reel in the Dons if they stayed in touch.  The plan worked beautifully – with the Hawks hitting the lead (finally) early in the final term.  They kicked out to a 16 point lead and then were supposed to coast to the line.

But the Bombers found something and scored a miraculous win.  For Bomber fans old enough to win, it was the 1999 prelim final all over again (when the Bombers lost vs Carlton).

To put in bluntly, the Hawks threw the game away.  They will have marked this date in the calendar several weeks ago – as per Penny.

To make matters worse, the Dons don’t have much in the way of rucks – with Tom Bellchambers missing – and also now miss the much improved Travis Colyer.

The Hawks by 49 points and certs of the week

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 49 points and they won by 38; analysis was fair.  The Hawks were expected to come out with greater intent, but struggled.  Full credit to the Bombers to come out full steam against the Hawks.  It was a help that they finally had a ruckman – of sorts – in Shaun McKernan (off the rookie list this week).

It appears that the 9 day break for the Hawks after the bye was not helpful.  It was as if they had two byes in a row.

The tip of the Hawks as the certs of the week was correct, however.

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BRIS vs.     ADEL         Gabba         Sat, 27 June 4:35 pm

Weather: possible shower; light breeze; humidity moderate, but may increase late in the game

The Crows, but not certs

Both teams had a R11 bye

Possible significant team changes:
Brisbane: Darcy Gardiner, Ryan Harwood and Sam Mayes all did well in the NEAFL and are chances to return; Dayne Beams is expected to be healthy, despite some concerns earlier n the week that he might be an “out”

Adelaide:  Taylor Walker (injured last week) is expected to come up okay with the 9 day break helping

This is a tricky game.  The Lions are gradually emptying out the casualty ward (regrettably, with Goose Maguire sent out to retirement from the medical room) and are likely to regain 1 or 2 others.  Furthermore, Jack Redden and Jed Adcock will be improved by last week’s run.

They are heading in the right direction, but maybe they still need another week or two to gel.

The Crows have slightly similar dramas.  Their injury list is almost as long – and they just got Richard Douglas back last week.  He will be improved by the hit-out.  But were the Crows damaged by their loss to the Hawks?  They would have had a huge build-up for the game, but struggled to be competitive at times.

The 9 day break is just a tad long! 7 or 8 would have been ideal.  The Crows absolutely smashed the Lions last year in Brisbane – winning by 105 points.  They booted 9:4 to 2:2 in the final term.

The Lions almost always outperform expectations when they have a rematch against a team that absolutely smashed them the previous meeting.  Recent examples are:
Port – beat Brisbane by 113 points in 2014, then the Lions beat them in the 2015 replay

North: – beat Brisbane by 87 points in 2014, then the Lions beat them in the 2014 replay

This would suggest that the Lions have a huge chance.  They won’t be tipped in this game and it will be listed as an EXTREME variance game – due to doubts about both sides.

Crows by 9 points in a danger game

Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 9 points and they won by 13; analysis was excellent here because of two reasons.  Firstly, the correct tip was made and the margin was close to the mark.  Next, the game was listed as an EXTREME variance game. This was 100% correct – with the Lions being about 4 goals up and then losing as the Crows stormed home in 4Q.  Fortunately for the Crows was that the really high humidity began to kick in shortly after the final siren.

It appears that the 9 day break for the Crows after the bye was not helpful.  It was as if they had two byes in a row.  But they were still good enough to recover (eventually) and win.  Taylor Walker looked to be NQR, but kicked a booming goal late in the game to put his team in front.

Of interest is that both teams activated their sub in 3Q. Tom Cutler came on for Brisbane and scored 5 SC points; Cameron (the hyphen) Ellis-Yolmen came on and amassed 63 SC points. There goes the game!!

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STK  vs.      WBD   Docklands Sat, 27 June 7:20 pm

The Dogs to atone for the round 6 fade-out

The Saints had the bye last weekend and the Dogs had their bye a week earlier

Possible significant team changes:
Saints: Jack Billings, Sam Fisher and Dylan Roberton may all come back; Nick Riewoldt may have to pass a test after a minor knee injury in the Saints’ last game in R11; Jack Sinclair or Adam Schneider could be promoted from the rookie list

Dogs: Stewart Crameri and Dale Morris may come back in
The Dogs were on a roll after beating the Swans in Sydney and led the Saints by 49 points at HT in round 6.  Somehow, they got ahead of themselves and lost the match.

That would have hurt deeply and expect them (especially as a higher rated team) to come out smoking this weekend.  Similar to their game against the Giants, they are likely to be extra potent early on.  Had it not been for their recent meeting, there was a chance that the Dogs could take this game a bit easy.  The pain on R6 will ensure that this does not happen.

There is a question as to how well the Saints come off the bye. Maybe expect them to be just a fraction off at some stage.

Both teams have good “ins”, but the Dogs appear better and will be spitting chips about how they threw away a huge lead earlier in the season.

Dogs by 38 points and certs

Post Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 38 points and they won by 6.  Analysis was a long way off in this game.  It was expected that the Dogs would be fired up after throwing away a big lead against the Saints a few weeks ago.  But they struggled to barely hang on.

The Saints came off the bye better than almost any team – well done them (as Kerry O’Keeffe would say).  Apologies for any angst caused to those who tipped the Dogs as certs.  But they just got there in the end.

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CARL         vs.      GCS  Docklands   Sun, 28 June 3:20 pm

The Blues, but hard to get too confident

The Suns had the bye last weekend and the Blues had their bye a week earlier

Possible significant team changes:
Blues: Bryce Gibbs goes out suspended and Michael Jamison may return, but he only played just over a half in his VFL retuned game last weekend; Marc Murphy is expected to be okay despite a minor corkie last week

Suns: Gazza is expected back, plus maybe Steven May, Harley Bennell, David Swallow and  Rory Thompson (most unlikely of the quintet)
The Blues have improved each week under John Barker and they topped it off with a win last weekend against a vulnerable Port.  It was their first 2015 win in Australia (they beat the Saints in NZ in R4).  When a team wins narrowly after >= 4 losses in a row, they tend to exceed expectations the following week – but it is only marginal if they win was a big upset.

Furthermore, it is difficult to assess where the Suns are at.  If they get good output from the expected list of “ins” and the Blues aren’t going 100%, then it is a danger game.

This is a game to avoid if you can and it will be marked as an EXTREME variance game – because of the doubts on how well the Blues will play after the upset win – and also the doubts on so many Suns players being ready or almost ready to return.

Blues by 9 points in a tricky game

Post Match Review: Blues were tipped by 9 points and they won by 35.  Analysis was a bit off, but not too concerned.  The game was marked as EXTREME and the scoring pattern was borderline extreme (with the Suns getting a modest lead and then losing by 35).  The non-selection of Ablett was a big surprise.  Bennell and May came back, with Bennell excelling and May dropping off late.

There was also some doubt on how far “back” the Blues are.  This doubt remains despite a handy win.

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Bye: GEEL, GWS, MELB, NMFC, PORT,WCE

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Best cert: the Hawks (won easily), then the Dockers (fell in) and Dogs (fell in)

Best Outsider:  the Lions are the best tip for an upset win (led until late in the game)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Richmond to win or to lose by less than 22 points (they won outright); the Hawks to win by over 45 points (looked a chance but failed); the Lions to win or to lose by less than 21 points (only lost by 13); Dogs to win by over 16 points (didn’t win by enough)

Happy tipping!  This is week with a few difficult games; it is highly unlikely that all favourites will win (and the Tigers stopped all 6 favs winning)

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Post Match Review:

Post Match Review:  were tipped by  points and they won by

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