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Round 14-19, 2016

Round 14-19, 2016

Round 14, 2016 (all times are AET) Round begins Thursday!!

 

Tipping results for R13: Supertipping: 6 out of 6 (perfect) for a total of 84 +2 bonus = 86 and ranking improved from 6,061 to 2,169  out of 44,201 tipsters (top 5%); big rise because of the 2 bonus points and correctly tipping 1 outsider.

Streak: 3/3 (with Giants, Eagles and Swans all winning) so streak now up to 4 ; however, ranking dropped from to 3,584 to 3,999 (top 15% – an easy week to tip certs if you avoided Port)

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there are now down from 2,538 to 2,074 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive

50/50: 1/1 (with Freo winning); now at 14/32 = an improving but still poor 43%

Early thoughts for R14: this round 6 teams coming off a bye play 6 teams going to a bye!  likely to tip Crows, Pies, Tigers, Giants, Cats and Hawks, but beware of the bye factor this year (first year with 90 rotations!!)

Round 14, 2016 (ALL TIPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE FRIDAY)

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 ADEL NMFC ADEL  ADEL  33   HIGH  A tiny chance
2 COLL FREO MCG  COLL  10   HIGH  No outsider in this game
3 RICH BRIS MCG  RICH  41   HIGH  No hope
4 GWS CARL HMBSH  GWS  26   EXTREME  A tiny chance
5 STK GEEL DCKLNDS  GEEL  21   HIGH  A tiny chance
6 HAW GCS LNCSTN  HAW  26   EXTREME  A tiny chance (Fri – no chance)

 

 

 

 

 

 

See Penny’s story below about the byes ans how it affects every game this weekend

 

Adelaide v North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval Thursday June 23 (7.50pm)
This is one game everyone will have the changes for; many might not be able to enter their tips in the 1-2 hours between 6.25pm eastern and kick-off on Thursday night.  The Roos have the more significant changes; Wells is a big loss as he provides something that the others struggle to give – and the INS of Swallow and Cunnington cannot do the Wells things.

It is expected that the 2 x 6 day breaks, the letdown are the BIG build-up for the Hawthorn game & loss, then the trip to Adelaide will be too much for them; the Crows appear to be on a roll and, so long as they are sharp after the break, should win well; if the Roos cannot win it late, they my drop off dramatically; Crows by 33 points and almost certs (but see below)
A wet track, but rain should be just about gone by game time; strong wind mainly going across the ground.
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 33 points and they won by 33; analysis was just about perfect; maybe the Crows should’ve won by more, but not 10 goal +; just a bit more; Nahas came in for Daw due to the conditions (but the ground was okay, really); the Roos lost Ray in 2Q after a knock; and the Roos looked very tired late in the game

 

 

Collingwood v Fremantle at MCG Friday June 24 (7.50pm)
This game is penny’s special topic below; the Dockers have lost ten straight, then won 3 in a row (albeit against 2 bottom teams and then Port in the west); the ting that stands out from Penny’s analysis is how hurt the Pies would feel after the Queen’s birthday loss; given that the Dockers’ injury list is huge (compared to Collingwood’s being merely bad – 26 to 17), the Pies will be the tip; they will probably omit a ruckman this time; the rain and cold forecast should help the pies – if anyone. Following on from the Swans game last week – it may be difficult for the the team trailing to make headway – and may slip further behind; Pies by 10 points
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 10 points and they won by 48; analysis was mixed; great to tip a winner in a 50/50; the inability of the losing team to mount a challenge (as tipped above) was correct.  It also looks like the Dockers are now overdue for a rest; and this time Cloke was competitive – even kicked the opening goal; Mayne scored only 15 SC points – maybe shouldn’t have played

 

 

 

Richmond v Brisbane Lions at MCG Saturday June 25 (1.40pm)
The Tigers played against the Suns like they were halfway already to their little holiday – but then managed to rally and win.  A couple of stars got them over the line late; it wasn’t that impressive of a win, but the Suns are beginning to pull out of their injury-imposed slump.  The Lions were passable against the Eagles but, without NicNat (gone for a while now) and Lycett (should be back soon), it was the weakest Eagles team for some time; the Lions injury list is a bit too long to give them much hope; Tigers by 41 points and certs of the week
Post match review: Tigers were tipped by 41 points and they won by 42; analysis was almost perfect here; the Tigers were correctly tipped as certs and not much to say here; the Lions hung on bravely in 4Q but the Tigers seemed to lose interest a bit.  Dusty was tagged by Robinson early, but left with concussion in 2Q; but for the Tigers, they lost Griffiths and Batchelor as late withdrawals – replaced by Broad and Townsend (who were both fair); the other thing to note was (sorry, should have been in the preview) that the Tigers have an important game vs Port R15 Friday night – so that is probably the main reason they put the Q back in Iraq

 

GWS Giants v Carlton at Homebush Saturday June 25 (4.35pm)
The young Giants really need a rest, but they are hoping to go to the bye with 3 wins in a row (having already beaten the Swans & Dons).  IT is expected that they should be able to do the job at home.  They do have some sore players: Davis, Haynes and Whitfield); watch for team selections and possible late changes.  Mumford and Johnson are likely inclusions this week

The Blues appeared to think that they were just going to turn up to get the 4 points in R12 against the Saints – but they looked in trouble 5 minutes int the contest.  Exactly how they will fare after the bye against such a good opposition is questionable.  They were really belted by the Giants in 2 x 2015 games; it is unsure if this will provide extra motivation or discouragement; the question marks about both teams makes this an EXTREME variance game

The Giants will be tipped, but not as certs; Giants by 26 points
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 26 points and they won by 62; analysis was a palindrome! This was tipped as an EXTREME variance game but narrowly missed on this score; it was expected that the Blues might show some real fight at some stage (or the Giants might drop off dramatically for a while) but the Blues surges only went as far as 2 goals in a row; the Blues were very disappointing – given that the Giants had a few injury worries during the game

 

St Kilda v Geelong at Docklands Saturday June 25 (7.25pm)
The Saints were excellent before the bye in a game where they had just lost several talls (McCartin, Goddard, Dempster & Riewoldt); McCartin and Riewoldt are both chances to come back in.  If they can produce the effort of R12, they are a chance to be highly competitive here.

The Cats have excelled against top 8 opposition since their loss to the Blues (their last loss to the Blues and Saints last win against Carlton!); but they seem to have been catching teams at a good time in terms of injuries and energy.  This time, the boot may possibly be on the other foot; it is expected that the Cats themselves may be a bit flat for this one.  But a win is still likely – Cats by 21 points
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 21 points but the Saints won by 3; analysis was just fair – but many had the Cats as absolute certs and were tipping wins by 5+ goals; the idea above that the Cats may be flat was denied by coach Scott (the preparation was good); yes, the prep was good but the bye was in the back of their minds; despite the negatives re the Cats, the Saints were terrific in coming back after being headed late in the game; check out Gresham’s goal in the highlights!! The positive was NOT tipping the Cats as certs.

 

 

 

Hawthorn v Gold Coast Suns at Aurora Stadium Sunday June 26 (3.20pm)
The Hawks had the kitchen sink throw at them last week and, somehow, managed to sneak over the line; with a 9 day break and then the bye, it is hard to imagine the Hawks being at their premiership best; it just looks set up nicely for the Suns to be competitive and a sneaky chance of a monumental upset; however, the most likely outcome is the Hawks being horribly flat at some time on the contest – most likely early in the game; the queries about Hawthorn’s mindset and the Suns’ ability to believe and compete makes this an EXTREME variance game; Hawks by 26 points XXXXXXX after seeing the teams Thursday and THEN Saad going out Friday, the Suns are going to be struggling big time; Hawks by 42 points and certs
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 42 points and they won by 26; analysis was reasonable – better than it looked as most had the Hawks winning by over 50 points; looks like the Hawks found it hard to come up after a 9 day break for an easy kill leading into the bye; it was actually tipped above that they might be flat early; the fact that they trailed at HT was a bit of a surprise, however.  The week off was good for little Gazza with 159 SC points and maybe 3 Brownlow votes; the call of EXTREME variance was correct – with big outsider GCS leading at QT and HT

 

Byes: Essendon, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles and Western Bulldogs

Certs: Tigers (won easily), the Hawks and then Crows (Crows are not certs, however, if you are on a long winning run) (the Crows won pretty well)

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Pies to win by over a goal; Suns to win or to lose by less than 49 points (removed Friday afternoon)

 

Technical Analysis prior to R14, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 22 Jun 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was pretty good here, I was hoping that the Dockers could get that 3 goal + break early in the final term; they edged towards it, but finished the game 17 points up; still, the analysis was acceptable and a WIN!!

This week, I am like a kid in a lolly shop as I watch 6 tea coming off a bye playing 6 teams going into a bye; Cameron Mooney noted that most teams coming off a bye in recent times have lost – with the score being 2-11; but if we examine the teams coming off a bye playing the teams going to a bye, they we find that the stats are virtually even.

It has occurred 11 times in the past 4 years, with the team coming off the bye on average being 3 points better than expected.  This is not statistically significant – except to say that there is no reason to panic about the “fresh” teams this weekend; but how will the 90 rotations affect things?  I am fascinated to know.  Given that there is a game Thursday, one Friday, three Saturday and one Sunday, the trend can be tracked as we go.  I would caution against basing everything on the first game results; the Roos have some issues to deal with – injury and a possible letdown factor – and the second game may be more of a guide (without being any guarantee of future trends).

This is my game for focus; the reason is that the Dockers are down to 28 fit men; Ross Lyon has signaled 1 only change, but it is likely that – with so many injuries, that some players are carrying little niggles.  Lachie Neale is one in this category; so their injury quotient is in the severe category – despite the lack of likely team changes.

Adding to Freo’s problems is that Port appeared to be flat after a close loss in a tough game the previous week against the Dogs (who also underperformed last week!).

The last (and most uncertain piece of the puzzle) is how the Pies come out of the bye (having gone into it with poor form).  The news is mixed on this, but it is suspected that they will do well; it is likely that the pain of suffering a rare Queen’s Birthday loss to the Dees (first since 2007) may ensure that they are well primed off the bye; in what is regarded as a 50/50 game, I am tipping them to win by double figures!

 

 

Round 15, 2016 (all times are AET) Round begins Thursday!!

Tipping results for R14: Supertipping: 5 out of 6 (almost perfect) for a total of 89 +2 bonus = 91 and ranking improved from 2,169 to 1,760  out of 44,201 tipsters (top 5%); 

Streak: 3/3 (with Crows, Tigers and Hawks all winning) so streak now up to 7 ; however, ranking dropped from to 3,999 to 4,576 (top 17% – but some tipsters may have come unstuck with the Cats)

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there are now down from 2,074 to 948 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive

50/50: 1/1 (with Collingwood winning well – but woosed out on the Suns {frown}); now at 15/33 = an improving but still poor 45%

Early thoughts for R15: you don’t have to be Young Einstein to work out that the Eagles are certs of the week; in the other games, the Swans and Crows will be tipped (probably NOT as certs); Pies are tipped while Port and the Saints are the early tips in two games difficult to pick; remember that the first game is on a Thursday

Round 15, 2016 (ALL TIPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE FRIDAY)

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 WCE ESS SUBI  WCE  60  HIGH  No hope at all
2 PORT RICH ADEL  PORT  21  EXTREME  Some chance
3 GCS STK GLD CST  GCS  11  HIGH  A big chance
4 SYD WBD SCG  SYD  21  HIGH  A small chance
5 CARL COLL MCG  COLL  7  EXTREME  A big chance
6 MELB ADEL MCG  ADEL  9  EXTREME  A definite chance

 * subject to change Thursday night

ROUND 15

West Coast Eagles v Essendon at Subiaco Oval, Thursday June 30 (8.10pm)
Both teams are coming off the bye
The key thing to note here is that the Bombers were really awful in WA 3 weeks ago; then had the bye and then exceeded all expectations in a loss to the Giants; that gallant loss was made look even better when GWS demolished the Blues a week later; but it is a mirage; they won’t have any hope at all this Thursday night; the smallest glimmer of hope could come int he form of an “extended bye” for the Eagles – ie, they come into this game has asleep and think they only have to turn up to win; the significant non-inclusion to comment on is McKenzie – he missed R12 with a virus and then played WAFL R13; he was expected back after the bye but is still in the WAFL; maybe lingering effects of the illness; he is s cert for the best 22 usually; Lycett coming back in (in the absence of Nicnat) will be a big help; the interest will be in the margin – which is a little hard to pick because of the mindset of the Eagles; let’s go 60 points and certs of the week
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 60 points and they won by 78; analysis was okay here; obviously, the call of certs of the week was correct – but 99% of everyone would have said that; the Bombers were good early (see above about the extended bye) and maybe could’ve lost by only ten goals, but they lost Jamar to a hammie in 3Q and also Leuenberger had a sore knee in 3Q and soldiered on under duress

 

 

 

Port Adelaide v Richmond at Adelaide Oval Friday July 1 (7.50pm)
Port comes off the bye against the Tigers who are second up after the bye.  A wet day is expected, but they are hoping for it to be all gone by game time; the ground held up well last time when the Crows played the Roos; this is the first test to see how teams perform second up in the “new era” (of 90 rotations); this helps to make this game an EXTREME variance game; the other things to make the tip uncertain is that Port are expected (Wed night) to bring back Hombsch and Schulz to replace Howard and at least one other;  Richmond hasn’t helped us by having a ruck quandary (prior to team selection); Maric was pulled out of Sunday’s VFL game in case Hampson doesn’t come up after a late knee problem in R14; but the VFL team had a bye the previous week; Griffiths and Batchelor are expected to be available, with Batchelor no cert to be picked on form; the Tigers put away a poor Lions outfit early in the game last week and then coasted a bit (thinking of this game, no doubt) – and they are on a winning streak if you excuse the injury-plagued big loss against the Roos; Port has been a mixed bag; an acceptable loss to the Eagles at home was followed by big wins against the Dees and Pies; then a close home loss to the Dogs; nothing wrong there; but then they failed to beat the Dockers in Perth; this was put down to a tough game against the Dogs the previous week – with both teams underperfoming the following round; if the Freo loss can be excused on this basis, then Port should definitely be the tip; but it is an EXTREME variance game; Port by 21 points but not certs
Post match review: Port was tipped by 21 points and they won by 38; analysis was okay here; Port lost Hombsch before the game – replaced by Clurey; Port was coming off the bye playing a team second up from the bye – and Port had a sensational 2Q (ditto for Melbourne – interesting); a key to this game was Mitchell tagging Cotchin and keeping him to 14 touches (6 after QT); Schulz first up for some time was a bit rusty.  Port was probably a bit angry after underperforming before the bye against the Eagles.

For the Tigers, Griffiths was a late withdrawal the previous week and then scored only 31; none of the Tiger big men imposed themselves on the game – and then Port won the clearances and won the centre bounces clearly in 2Q when they romped away; was the EXTREME variance call correct?  It was borderline; maybe Port kicking 7 in a row suggests that it was just in the EXTREME range

 

 

Gold Coast Suns v St Kilda at GLD CST Saturday July 2 (1.40pm)
The early tip is GCS & see Penny’s comments below; the Suns had huge injury troubles before the bye and no they have reduced somewhat to “big injury troubles”; meanwhile, the Saints’ injury toll is just beginning to creep up a bit – losing Webster and Wright for this game; the Suns’ plus for this game is that some players to have come back from injury in recent times are beginning to get game time into their legs and should be at their top now (eg Miller, Rosa Rischitelli); and Penny may be right about the Saints being having a letdown after their great win last week; but, if not, they are a huge chance to win; Suns by 11 points 
Post match review: Suns were tipped by 11 points and they won by 40; analysis was reasonably good here – given that the Saints were probably slight favourites for most tipsters; the Suns have benefited from the bye and a bit more stability in their list; Malceski played his best game for the club and Rischitelli + Miller came back to best form; also Hall returned to his early season form; they lost Rosa early, but the Saints also lost a player in 1Q – McCartin; the Suns smashed the Saints on the outside (said Saints coach Richardson); Armitage was fairly good on Ablett, but the Suns’ other mids were beaten; the Saints had no player with 100+ SC points – compared to 8 for the Suns;  finally, the Suns probably didn’t get enough credit for their honourable away losses to Richmond and Hawthorn in recent weeks; and the Saints did appear to have a letdown after last week’s big win – they were down 4:6 to nil in 1Q; and O’Meara made his comeback in the NEAFL!

 

Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs at SCG Saturday July 2 (4.35pm)
The early tip is Sydney; the Dogs look better down back now – with Wood and Johannisen back in; but both have been out for a while; so the Dogs’ chances may depend on how they go first up from a long break; great to see Clay Smith finally back to the ones after multiple injury problems; the Swans look to be a bit more settled than the Dogs and should win this on their home deck; Swans by 21 points 
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 21 points but the Dogs won by 4; analysis was not so flash here; the Dogs should have been rated a better chance based on the fact that they were flat after a tough game against Port in R12; then flat R13 (as was Port) and should’ve been expected to bounce back strongly after the bye; not that they would’ve been tipped to win, but would’ve been given a better chance to cause an upset; the Swans were hurt with lack of assistance up forward for Buddy – with Heeney and McGlynn both struggling

 

Carlton v Collingwood at MCG Saturday July 2 (7.25pm)
The early tip is Collingwood in a tough one to tip; teams that badly underperform first up after the bye tend to excel the following week; the Blues were 18 points worse than expected last weekend – which isn’t really a shocker, but it is poor; the fact that they were blown away late in a slight concern; this would have been a bigger worry for Blues fans had it happened early in the year; SOSSOS makes his debut (Son of Stephen; Son of Serge) for Carlton while the Pies have brought back some experience – which is a positive;  if the Blues can have some sort of upsurge from their poor first up loss, then they are a real chance; but the signs are unclear and, based on that, the form team will be tipped instead; not that the Pies’ form is that great – they beat and undermanned Dockers team desperate for a rest – but at least the Magpies have shown something of late; Pies by 7 points
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 7 points and they won by 12; analysis was not as good as it looked; the tip was correct and margin close, but the variance was nowhere near EXTREME; it was a low to medium grinding win; the match was best summed up by the centimetre perfect kick from Cloke to Varcoe with a minute or so to go; Varcoe marked 20 out DIF and hit the post; the skills were dreadful at times in this game; enough said here – bank the win and move on

 

 

 

Melbourne v Adelaide at MCG Sunday July 3 (3.20pm)
The early tip is Adelaide – without much confidence: see Penny’s comments below; it is hard to tip against the Crows on form, but Penny’s notes mean that they will not be tipped as certs; the Thursday to Sunday break is a bit too long for the Crows; expect the Dees to come with plenty of energy – with their most recent MCG match being a big win over Collingwood; they were outplayed by the Swans in the wet after that, but they would still be upbeat generally; Crows by 9 points in a danger game
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 9 points and they won by 22; analysis was reasonable; the correct team was tipped AND the variance was correctly tipped as EXTREME (see above chart); with the Dees going from about 3 goals down at QT to 2 goals up at HT and then to lose the game definitely qualifies as EXTREME variance; it was very difficult to assess what effect the Phil Walsh anniversary (of his death) had on the Crows

 

 

 

Byes: Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Geelong, GWS Giants, Hawthorn and North Melbourne

 

Certs: Eagles and that is all (going conservative this week) (never in doubt after HT); for those in the Gauntlet, maybe Port and the Swans are the next best to go for

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Suns to win by over a 4 points (never in doubt); Dees to win or to lose by less than 19 points (failed narrowly)

 

 

Technical Analysis prior to R15, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 01 July 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was excellent here; I am back in form again! With the 6 teams off the bye playing 6 teams going to the bye, the fresh teams generally did better than expected; those to outperform expectations were Crows (by 9 points – should’ve been a bit more); Pies by 45 points; Sainys by 36 points and an upset win; Suns by 25 points; the fresh team to underperform were Richmond  – by a point, but slackened off late in the contest; and Blues by 18 points

This week, the fascination will be to see how the fresh teams go against those who are second up from the bye (Port first up vs Tigers second up & Melbourne first up vs Crows second up); readers will have the benefit of looking at the Friday night game to see how things pan out; I am expecting the Crows to underperform a bit on Sunday against the Dees; the Crows have had a 12 day and then a 10 day break – due to playing on a Thursday night after the bye; this isn’t helpful; they also had a huge build-up to the Roos game 8 days ago; it will be tricky for them; the Dees will see this as a chance to take a scalp; I reckon that the Dees can either win or get within 2 goals of the Crows; the other part of the puzzle is the 1 year anniversary of their previous coach’s death is this weekend.

Two teams that played last weekend first up were the Suns and Saints; both started well; the Suns were overrun while the Saints looked to be heading the same way but staged a remarkable comeback late in the last term to win.  This comeback is very similar to a “kick after the siren to win” type scenario; this usually comes with an emotional letdown; I expect this to be the case again and I’m going for the Suns to win by over 2 goals.

Round 16, 2016 (all times are AET) Round begins Thursday!!

 

Tipping results for R15: Supertipping: 5 out of 6 (almost perfect) for a total of 94 +2 bonus = 96 and ranking improved from 1,760 to 992  out of 44,274 tipsters (top 2%); 

Streak: 1/1 (with Eagles winning easily) so streak now up to 8 ; however, ranking dropped from 4,576 to 4,637  (top 17% – if you are in this range – of 7 – 10 streak, then you are a chance to move up the ladder)

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there are now down from 948 to 711 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive

50/50: 1/2 (with the win being the Suns – who won by enough, but the Dees were a loss when they narrowly failed to get close enough to Adelaide); now at 16/35 = an improving but still poor 46%

Early thoughts for R16: the certs appear to be, at this stage, the Saints, Giants & Suns; those to also be tipped would be the Hawks, Cats, Dees, Crows, Dogs and Eagles, but there are some danger games for these six teams – especially the Dogs, Hawks and Eagles; remember that the first game is on a Thursday

Round 16, 2016 (ALL TIPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 PORT HAW ADEL  HAW  6  EXTREME  A huge chance
2 GEEL SYD GEEL  GEEL  9  HIGH  A chance
3 GWS COLL HMBSH  GWS  21  EXTREME  A tiny chance
4 GCS BRIS GLD CST  GCS  45  HIGH  No hope
5 WBD RICH DCKLNDS  WBD  7  EXTREME  A huge chance
6 MELB FREO DARWIN  MELB  25  HIGH  A tiny chance
7 CARL ADEL MCG  ADEL  15  HIGH  A small chance
8 WCE NMFC SUBI  WCE  9  EXTREME  A huge chance
9 ESS STK DCKLNDS  STK  47  HIGH  No hope

 

ROUND 16
Tips done Wed / Thurs before team announcements for last 8 games

 

 

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval Thursday July 7 (7.50pm)
Adelaide Oval got over 30mm or rain on Tues, but not much after that and Thursday is expected to be mainly dry; the big news on the TV on Wed night was the “fighting words” type speech from Clarkson at the airport; it smacks of a man bluffing because he is worried about his team – either that they may be treating this too lightly (hard to imagine – since Port has such a good recent record against them) or that things aren’t 100% after the bye (attitude or injury, perhaps); nothing mentioned from the club re injuries; both these teams have similar weaknesses – struggling for tall defenders and ruck domination; the Hawks should win the rucks with Lobbe and Howard both being injured for Port – but need to convert that into clearances; Mitchell to tag Mitchell – according to Glenn Luff; this will be interesting; teams that successfully tag Mitchell tend to do well against the Hawks; Port are coming off a 6 day break (but after a bye, so no great concern) – compared to a short bye for the Hawks at 11 days (a bit of a nuisance break for them); how will Hodge go second up from a long lay-off?  Probably ok, but not certain; this is a danger game and it will be marked as EXTREME variance because of the coach’s comments and the unusual break pattern for Hawthorn.  The Hawks have a HUGE Thursday night game next week vs Swans; this will be in the back of their minds as they get near the end of the Port game; if the game is well and truly over (one way or the other) they may ease down late in the contest; Hawks by 6 points
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 6 points and they won by 22; analysis was reasonable, but it is difficult to estimate how much effect the Port injuries had on the final result; Port had injuries / knocks to Ebert, Boak, Hartlett, Austin and Dixon; all were affected to some degree – with Dixon, Austin and Ebert all scoring under 50 SC points; the Hawks lost Shiels after half time as well; in the end, the correct tip was the Hawks – but it is difficult to determine how much of the 32 points was superiority and ho much was due to Port’s injuries.

 

Geelong v Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium Friday July 8 (7.50pm)
This will be a wet game; car park closed Wed and lots of rain by then – plus more forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening; both teams underperformed last time up – Geelong before the bye; Both losses came late in the game when the game looked won; possibly Geelong would have been more devastated by their loss – against a lowly team compared to the Swans’ opponent (STK compared to WBD); as such, the UP side for Geelong may be higher than for the Swans; also the Swans have been struggling a bit since Tippett has been injured; the Swans need Richards back and firing to help quell the Geelong forwards (but maybe marking forwards not such an issue this round) and there is talk of him returning; Glenn luff noted that Swans players have trouble scoring big in DT at KP recently; the mids battle will be critical and the key for Geelong may be… wait for it.. Guthrie.  He has had one game back from illness (where he struggled a bit) and then the bye; a big game from him will ease the pressure on the other mids; the home ground advantage and the slightly shorter injury list makes Geelong the tip;The Swans have a HUGE Thursday night game next week vs Swans; this will be in the back of their minds as they get near the end of the Cats game; if the game is well and truly over (one way or the other) they may ease down late in the contest; Cats by 9 points but, as often happens in the wet, the team that gets to a good lead often keeps on going
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 9 points but the Swans won by 38; analysis was not that flash – the only positive was that many had tipped the Cats as certs; the Swans showed the form that a team which throws away a win the week previous often shows – getting out to a good lead and holding on; this should have been emphasised, but the waters were muddied somewhat by the Cats having a similar form line – although the Cats were looking like losers for much of the evening against the Saints in R14 and then they had the bye

 

Saturday July 9

 

GWS Giants v Collingwood at Homebush Saturday July 9 (1.40pm)
There had been plenty of rain in Sydney this week, but it should ease off a bit (but not completely) on Saturday; the outcome of this game depends largely on how the Giants return fro their bye; they are the better team and should win, but there is a danger that they might be a bit sluggish – after bopping the Blues 2 weeks ago and then seeing the Blues highly competitive against Collingwood last Saturday night; neither the Pies not Blues inspired the fans and this seems to have led to the Giants being too highly fancied this week (many tipping a 7 goal plus win); another factor which makes this an EXTREME variance game is that Davis and Mohr are tests for the Giants – as are Adams and Fasolo for the Pies; Collingwood will probably need a good start in order to win – so the early part of the game is critical; Giants by 21 points but not certs
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 21 points but the Pies won by 32; analysis was mixed; the positives were: A: labelling this as an EXTREME variance game (correct) and, B: most had pencilled in this as a win for the Giants; they were tipped here as NOT CERTS; but it was expected that the danger time for them was early; they were excellent in 1Q but then lost the plot for 2&3Q; of note was that neither Davis nor Mohr played for the Giants (see above)

 

Gold Coast Suns v Brisbane Lions at GLD CST Saturday July 9 (4.35pm)
See Penny’s review below; the revenge factor will help the Suns – and they have the rare privilege of playing someone with a similar injury quotient; this is the Grand Final for these teams; there is little hope for the Lions winning this – missing D Beams, Christensen, Harwood and Bell; there is also some risk on Robinson being 100%; Cutler and Zorko are likely to return;  the Suns lose Rosa, but are likely to get Lonergan back; Suns by 45 points and certs
Post match review: Suns were tipped by 45 points and they won by 26; analysis was just so-so; the Suns were correctly tipped as certs, but they failed to really land the killer blow in the latter stages of the contest – although they did lose Rischitelli before he had touched the footy

 

Western Bulldogs v Richmond at Docklands Saturday July 9 (7.25pm)
This is a danger game for the Dogs; last week’s win can be viewed two ways; the first (and more likely) is that it should be treated as a “kick after the siren to win” type game (as the game was virtually done after the Johannisen goal); this would mean the Dogs are likely to underperform this week – and be a chance to lose; the other is that the bad loss to the Cats before the bye – followed by the bye – would have left them feeling like they were is a slump (despite the losing sequence being only 1 game); in that case, they would excel this week – and especially in 1H; an example of the latter was when the Tigers beat the Swans by a kick after the siren; it woke them from their slumber and they were terrific early the following week against Freo in Perth and won well; although it won’t help tipsters too much, the conclusion is that if the Dogs get off to a flier, they won’t get run down; but if the Tigers lead early – or the game is in the balance, Richmond will have a huge chance of causing an upset; if Hampson comes back fully fit, that would help (he is better than Maric this year); Dogs by 7 points and avoid tipping them as certs.
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 7 points and they won by 10; analysis was excellent here; most had tipped the Dogs to win by 5 goals or so; in fact, the Tigers maybe should have won had they been a bit more circumspect going inside fifty late in the contest; Dogs lost Libba but, in the end, showed some composure to get our of trouble; those who tipped the Dogs as certs were given a bumpy ride

 

Melbourne v Fremantle at TIO Stadium, Darwin Saturday July 9 (7.40pm)
Sunny and dry in Darwin this weekend!! At long last, Freo got a bye last week, but they probably needed a 4 week bye to recover from a multitude of injuries; there is talk of Barlow (broken finger 2 weeks ago) coming back early and playing this week (most likely will miss, but watch team selection and  any late changes); Ibbotson may also be back on a slightly limited preparation; the Dockers still appear too injured to mount a serious challenge; but the Dees won’t be tipped as certs because of their habit of throwing in a real shocker of a performance from time to time; if the Dees get a good lead, they may well go on and win by a big margin against a struggling opponent; there are players the Dockers would probably like to rest, but are forced to play at present; Dees by 25 points and almost (but not) certs
Post match review: Dees were tipped by 25 points and they won by 32; analysis was fair; the Dees probably should’ve won by more; they had Vince struggling with injury as well as Oscar McDonald; the Dockers had Mundy having his own health / injury problems; in review, the Dees could’ve been tipped as certs

 

Sunday July 10

 

Carlton v Adelaide at MCG Sunday July 10 (1.10pm)
This is a difficult game for the Crows; it is 1 week after the Phil Walsh anniversary and yet another week on the road (mercifully, with a full 7 day break); they come up against an opposition that had hit a flat spot – and they should really win this one; but it just looks like a game where their motivation and intensity could be down a fraction; this, more than any great effort from the Blues, is the reason that they are not tipped as certs; Crows by 15 points
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 15 points and they won by 60; analysis was way off; the Crows were totally dominant and the Blues (unlike the Pies) played as poorly as last week – but this time against an opponent who knew how to punish  a down and out type effort.

 

West Coast Eagles v North Melbourne at Subiaco Oval Sunday July 10 (3.20pm)
The forecast is for a wet Perth this Sunday; the Roos have had the longest of all bye breaks – having played with 2 x 6 day breaks to end on a Thursday night in R14 – and then playing Sunday in R16; and they play the Eagles – who have had a too long 10 day break from their game after the bye; these figures alone make this an EXTREME variance game; the game itself is vital – with the loser probably confined to the lower reaches of the eight and less of a chance of a home final; Wells and Waite trained lightly Wed and are being tested Thurs; they must be considered a bit unlikely to either play or be at their top; if they can play well, then the Roos are a huge chance; even if not, North can still win this one; their pre-bye form was really ruined by those multiple injuries in the Geelong game – then they played on 2 x 6 day breaks and should have beaten the Hawks, before getting overrun by the Crows; the Eagles got an easy kill last week and are ‘just going’ generally; but, with their record at home, they will be tipped; there was talk of the Roos exacting revenge for the 2015 prelim loss to the Eagles in Perth; because they were definite underdogs, this “motivation” will be ignored; the stronger motivation for North is to prove that their recent run of losses is not their true form; Eagles by 9 points
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 9 points and they won by 32; analysis was so-so; the Eagles were probably helped by injuries to the Roos (Ray and Wood), but the Roos never really looked like being a threat; maybe their long break counted against them; losing Dal Santo (replaced by first- gamer Clarke) didn’t help North either; 

 

Essendon v St Kilda at Docklands Sunday July 10 (4.40pm)
The Saints are the certs of the week; the Bombers have this awkward 10 day break and managed to lose 2 ruckmen in the one game last weekend (which explains why they dropped off so badly against the Eagles); Leuenberger is a test for this week, but considered unlikely; expect him not to play – even if selected on Thursday; this would leave McKernan as the sole ruckman; the Saints will be “Shane Savage” after losing they way they did last weekend; in particular, being down 4:6 to nil early on; expect them to show great intensity early – and to break the game open in 1Q or, if the Dons match them for a while, 2Q; Saints by 47 points and certs of the week!
Post match review: Saints were tipped by 47 points and they won by 11; analysis was poor; the Saints played like they were flattened – rather than angry – after last week’s loss to the Suns – or maybe they just thought it was going to be an east win; they would’ve lost had it not been for 40 possession man Steven; losing Savage didn’t help, but he was struggling to have an impact even before his hit

 

 

Certs: Suns (looked safe but leaked goals) and Saints (made fans wait, but drew away late) – that is all (going relatively conservative this week); for those in the Gauntlet, maybe Giants are the next best option (glad to avoid tipping them as certs)

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Pies to win or to lose by less than 42 points (never in doubt in 2H); go for a risky one in Tigers to win or to lose by less that 26 points (always looked safe); Blues to win or to lose by less than 29 points (always in trouble); Suns to win by more than 39 points  (failed, despite looking likely at times)

 

Technical Analysis prior to R16, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 07 July 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was mixed – with the Dees letting me down; maybe the state of mind of the Crow players was a bit too hard to forecast; anyway, the Suns did the right thing by me and had a big win!

This week, I will watch with interest how teams go first up from the bye vs second up; and first up vs third up and 2nd up vs third up; it was noted that teams first up from the bye playing teams second up from the bye last week (Dees against Crows & Port against Richmond) both had excellent second terms; was this a coincidence?  If the trend continues, then this week the Hawks, Cats and Roos will have a big second terms; but the sample size is too small to be certain; although if it occurs Thursday night, I will give it SLIGHTLY more weight;

But, moving on to my tip; some teams have waited a long time for a rematch; the best recent example was the Roos vs Hawthorn in R13; the Hawks were considered virtual certs after North lost several players the previous week; but the Roos came out all guns blazing and almost puled off an upset; this week sees the Suns on their home ground against the Lions; they were unbeaten in R4 and then lost unexpectedly to Brisbane; it was the night May got several weeks for hitting Lion Martin and the whole year went down the toilet from then on for the Suns.

These revenge matches help the revenger (Suns) to start well; look for them to be excellent early – and to outperform expectations; I expect the Suns to be minimum 3 goals up at QT and to win by over 7 goals; the only other bit of technical analysis that needs to be mentioned is that the Suns snapped a long losing sequence last week and did it in style; the leads for this are mixed but generally slightly positive; had they dropped off late against the Saints last week and won by 20-30 points, the lead would have been negative.

 

Round 17, 2016 (all times are AET) Round begins Thursday!!

 

Tipping results for R16: Supertipping: 7 out of 9 (fair) for a total of 101 +2 bonus = 103 and ranking improved from 992 to 865  out of 44,305 tipsters (top 2%); 

Streak: 2/2 (with Suns and Saints winning unimpressively) so streak now up to 10 ; ranking improved from 4,637 to 4,525  (top 16% – if you are in this range – of 9 – 10 streak, then you are a chance to move up the ladder); the many who tipped either the Cats and / or Giants came a gutzer 

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there are now down from 711 to 647 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive

50/50: 2/4 (with the wins being the Tigers – getting close enough; and Pies – winning; but the losers being the Blues – awful; and Suns – not winning by enough); now at 18/39 = an improving but still poor 46%

Early thoughts for R17: the certs appear to be, at this stage, the Cats, Tigers, Dogs, Crows and Giants; the other tips would be the Swans, Roos, Eagles and Dees; remember that the first game is on a Thursday

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 SYD HAW SCG  SYD  17  HIGH  a chance
2 FREO GEEL SUBI  GEEL  47  HIGH  no hope
3 RICH ESS MCG  RICH  46  HIGH  no hope
4 NMFC PORT DCKLNDS  NMFC  26  EXTREME  a tiny hope
5 WBD GCS CAIRNS  WBD  40  HIGH  no hope
6 ADEL COLL ADEL  ADEL  30  EXTREME  a tiny hope
7 CARL WCE MCG  WCE  21  HIGH  a tiny hope
8 STK MELB DCKLNDS  STK  4  EXTREME  tipped to win
9 BRIS GWS GABBA  GWS  41  HIGH  no hope

 

ROUND 17

 

Thursday July 14

 

Sydney Swans v Hawthorn at SCG (7.20pm)
This is a huge game in the context of the season; the winner is a huge change to finish 1 or 2 – and top spot; the loser is in danger of finishing farther down the ladder; and these team have won 6 flags between them in the last decade or so.  The score is about even in terms of freshness; the Hawks have an extra day’s break, but are on the road for the second week in a row; the Swans sure win in terms of team changes – with the Hawks losing both Shiels and Howe to injury;  For Sydney, Papley and Ted Richards have both had 1 game back from injury; the Swans aren’t over the line, but the experts maybe aren’t tipping them as confidently as they should be; Swans by 17 points
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 17 points but the Hawks won by 5; analysis was a bit off here, but – once again – opposition fans were left wondering how the Hawks pinched this one; there were 2 x 50 metre penalties which led to Hawthorn goals; then the Hawks kicked 2 goals very late in 4Q – due to some individual brilliance plus an error or two from the Swans; Sydney also came out of the game with more bumps and bruises than the Hawks; if you tipped the Hawks, you got out of jail – to some extent.

 

 

 

 

Fremantle v Geelong at Subiaco Oval Friday July 15 (8.10pm)
The Dockers have been badly hit by injuries and their bye probably came too late (see Penny’s comments below) – and they are really going to struggle from now on in.  Both teams were poor last week (with the Cats being more disappointing); but the Cats are much more capable of bouncing back to top form; they are closer to having their best list in; the Dockers copped yet another injury in Langdon; a fully fit Barlow will more than compensate for Langdon at this stage; but what the Dockers really need is a bit of stability; the Cats dropped Clark after only one game and a story came out about a dispute between Clark and Duncan; this begs the question – did disunity affect the Cats’ performance last week?  Maybe; but the result could also be due to the Swans being up after throwing away the game the previous week; or the Cats were flat after the “too late” bye in R15; the Cats told channel 7 on Thursday that the dropping of Clark was form related only; either way, the Cats should benefit.

Both teams had awful 1Qs last week, so the early game should be hot – and expect the better team (this year – given Freo’s injuries) to be dominant in either late 1Q or 2Q.

Adding to the Dockers’ woes is that Mundy was concussed last week and needs to come up off a 6 day break and travel back from Darwin.

Cats by 46 points and certs
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 46 points and they won by 17; analysis was poor; the Cats were expected to really smash the Dockers; but they played like a team that had just woken from a slumber (similar to the Tigers, in fact); the undermanned Dockers were brave – and Pav showed us just how good he is / was on Friday night in some passages of play

 

 

Richmond v Essendon at MCG Saturday July 16 (1.40pm)

The Dons were highly competitive last week and only went down against the Saints in the last few minutes; this was after a 10 day break from a Thursday night game against the Eagles in Perth; normally the 10 day break can be a negative, but it seemed to work well for the Dons last week – or maybe the Saints were flat after helping the Suns to break a big losing streak the previous week.  

The Dons look better this week with Leuenberger and Zaharakis back in (albeit losing Cooney).

The Tigers brought in three inexperienced players last week in Markov (debut) and third gamers McBean and Castagna

Of note is that teams that play Thursday night often start poorly 2 weeks later.  So expect the Dons to begin poorly; from there, the Tigers are likely to be in control all day and win easily; Tigers by 47 points and certs
Post match review: Tigers were tipped by 47 points and they won by 19; analysis was not good; it was expected that the Dons would be poor early and never get back into it; WRONG!  The Tigers were miles off the pace early and won the game either side of quarter time – but then failed to kick away late in the contest; they lost Deledio in 3Q, while the Bombers lost Gwilt about in the same quarter

 

 

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide at Docklands Saturday July 16 (4.35pm)

The Roos have had a tough time of it in recent weeks; it all began with a loss to the Cats when they had multiple injuries in the midfield; then 2 x 6 day breaks with losses against the Hawks and Crows; then a trip to the West after the bye with a loss to the Eagles; this week, they get three players back from injury – Waite, Dal Santo and Wells; how well they will go will go a long way to determining the outcome of this match. Plus Swallow copped a late knock last week, but is expected to be okay.   Coach Scott says that Dal Santo and Wells were almost ready against the Eagles, so they should be good to go this week; but the variance will still be labelled as EXTREME; this is due to concerns about BOTH North and Port;  it is unsure how Port will come up after the tough game the previous week; Jonas was a chance to come back for Port but did his hammie; Krakouer will miss to go to a funeral; Ebert will miss as expected; this leaves 4 players who had some kind of problem last week that have been named: Dixon, Austin, Hartlett and Boak; Port could really go down in flames if any of these guys struggle; the various risks plus the home ground advantage will make the Roos the clear tip; but the Roos won’t be tipped as certs until it is certain they have turned the corner.  They have a big Friday night game vs the Pies Friday night R18 so they could rest player slate if the game is already decided; Roos by 26 points
Post match review: Roos were tipped by 26 points but Port won by 28; analysis was mixed; ther bad thing was tipping the Roos; the lone positive here was the EXTREME variance call. North’s INS struggled at times; Dal Santo was okay; Wells and Waite scored below average SC points; several players from each team suffered knocks; but the game was summed up in the first few seconds of the game – a North error in the centre square sent Port forward and then Firrito controversially was pinged for conceding a behind whilst being tackled; it just wasn’t the Roos’ night – and they are playing like a team that has had the stuffing knocked out of them. For Port, their doubtfuls were mostly okay, but Dixon struggled and re-injured his ankle late in the contest.

 

 

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast Suns at Cazalys Stadium, Cairns Saturday July 16 (7.25pm)
This game is being played in Cairns; the Suns have lost Prestia, Gazza and Rischitelli this week; last week, Prestia starred, Gazza was hampered a bit and Rischitelli didn’t last until QT; add to this Swallow and O’Meara – and it adds up to a disaster; imagine how the Swans would go in the finals without Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy, Jack and Mitchell!  The Suns have no hope now against a team that has somewhat got its list back together; this game may become difficult late in the evening with the likely increase in humidity; Dogs by 40 points and CERTS
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 40 points and they won by 48; analysis was pretty good here; it was mentioned that the game would get more difficult later (and, therefore, the Dogs would be expected to get most of their advantage in 1H) and the Dogs were 42 points up at HT and only won 2H by a goal; but they may have been a bit restricted in losing Stringer in 3Q; Dogs were correctly labelled CERTS

 

Adelaide v Collingwood at Adelaide Oval Saturday July 16 (7.40pm)
The Crows had to deal with their 1 year anniversary of Phil Walsh’s death on the road in R15; then they were away last weekend as well; this is the first time they have to deal with it in front of their home crowd; it is uncertain how this will affect the team; meanwhile, the Pies bounced back to form last week against the Giants in a huge upset; the Pies had Adams back and that seemed to help a lot; but maybe the biggest cause of the result was the Giants not coming up after the bye; if that is so, then the Pies have little chance against the Crows – especially when they are on the road for the second week in a row; the tiny doubt about “coming home” for the Crows will mean that this will be called an EXTREME variance game and that the Crows won’t be tipped as certs; the Pies have a big Friday night game vs Roos Friday night R18, so they may drop off badly late in 4Q if the game is cooked; Crows by 30 points and almost certs
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 30 points and they won by 28; analysis was reasonably good; the match was won in the first few minutes – Crows up 5 goals to nil and that was about the margin; the Pies challenged at times – without ever looking likely to win; the Crows had minor knocks to Betts, Walker and Jenkins, but all played out the game (but scoring only 9,9 and 0 DT points in 4Q); maybe this restricted the ability of the Crows to win by a bigger margin; the Crows were not labelled as certs, but were “home” after 15 minutes.

 

 

 

Carlton v West Coast Eagles at MCG Sunday July 17 Sunday July 17 (1.10pm)
After beating the Tigers at the MCG in R12 last year, the Eagles have suffered back to back 46 point losses against the Hawks in subsequent MCG games; now they have a chance to “redeem” themselves and get an elusive MCG win; they will be firm favourites to do so and, based on form, it’s hard to make a case against them; but they did play Thursday night 2 weeks ago and this means that they may, perhaps, start slowly; it’s the Blues best hope to cause an upset; after looking good early in the year, the Blues have hit a flat spot; they have lost Casboult (suspended) and Thomas + Walker (injured); all three struggled late last week against the Crows; the cause re the injured guys is obvious; and sometimes players who get reported lose focus on the game thereafter; maybe the Blues INS can do a little better than the outs because of this; and all these things add up to the Eagles being slightly too highly fancied; but they will be tipped, not as certs, by 21 points
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 21 points and they won by 7; analysis was pretty good here; the Eagles were generally expected to win by 6 goals or so; Weitering struggled a bit for the Blues, but proved to be a handy forward after copping his friendly fire knock; Priddis slowed down in 2H after suffering a thigh injury in 2Q; not a great spectacle for Joe Biden

 

St Kilda v Melbourne at Docklands Sunday July 17 Sunday July 17 (3.20pm)
The Saints have won 13 in a row against the Dees and, despite this being a very risky game to tip in, the Saints will be the go; “we butchered the footy” & “Essendon’s pressure was very good” said Saints’ coach Richardson after the game last weekend; this result looks like a false lead (where people overestimate how good the Dons will be this week and underestimate the worth of the Saints); expect them to bounce back from a couple of poor weeks; however, the Dees will be annoyed about all these losses to the Saints; when they do eventually break through, they may go on to a big win; Vince and Oscar McDonald need to be tested before playing Sunday but the coacvh expects both to be ok; Saints by 4 points in a minor upset but EXTREME variance
Post match review: Saints were tipped by 4 points and they won by 36; analysis was pretty good overall; firstly, a minor upset was correctly tipped; next, the variance was, indeed, EXTREME. It seems that the Dees have a bit of a thing about St Kilda; one day they will break the hoodoo, but not in 2016!

 

Brisbane Lions v GWS Giants at Gabba Sunday July 17 Sunday July 17 (4.40pm)
Slight chance of a shower at the Gabba; The Australian reported yesterday that the players want Leppitsch out (later denied by Zorko – who has just signed on for 2017 & beyond); there is also talk of Rockliff going south (if he goes north, he won’t be playing in the AFL); if this is true, then the Lions could get slaughtered this week.  For the Lions, Merrett is out ill and Gardiner was struggling late last week and may be in some small doubt; Lachie Whitfield came out of the Giants’ team on Friday – replaced by Downie in the 25.
It is expected that the poor form by the Giants last week was a blip – and that they should hit back pretty well this time; Giants by 41, but if they win blows out to over 80 points, it won’t bode well for the Brisbane coach!
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 41 points and they won by 79; analysis was fair; it appeared that both teams were UP early but the Giants were really determined to break the game open – which they did; good news for Leppa is that there appeared to be some fight in the Lions late in the game – but they were also helped a bit by the rain coming in the latter stages; the Lions lost Taylor prior to the game – replaced by Keays; and lost McStay in 3Q; the Giants were correctly labelled as CERTS.

Certs: Cats, Tigers, Dogs and Giants (they all won – with Cats and Tigers struggling a bit early)

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Cats to win by over 24 points(never looked a hope) ; Tigers to win by over 36 points (never looked a hope) ; Blues to win or to lose by less than 34 points (finished strongly to get within the range) 

 

 

Technical Analysis prior to R17, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 14 July 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was a bit poor – the Suns got off to a good start as predicted (up 22 points at the first break), but didn’t really move in for the kill – only winning the last three quarters by 4 points; maybe I will give myself a break here (although I was wrong) because the Suns lost Rischitelli early and Gazza was a bit below his best on the day.

 

This week:  the byes came in rounds 11-13 in 2015.  This year, they came in rounds 13-15 and, of course, the 2016 number of player rotations is well down.  It is possible that the round 15 bye came too late for the team this year.  Of the 6 teams to have had the round 15 bye, 2 of them dreadfully underperformed.  The Cats and Giants both lost badly as warm / hot favourites; the Dockers and Roos underperformed as outsiders; the 2 team to do better than expected were the Suns (only slightly) and the Hawks.  Both the suns and Hawks played against team that had significant injury problems on the day.

The big question is: how will the round 15 bye teams go this week – in round 17?  Firstly, let it be said that the sample size above is small and other factors may have come into play.

Anyway, my theory is that they may still struggle a bit in R17; this is because, in my opinion, that the bye coming TOO LATE and that the players would have been better to have had a rest 1-2 weeks earlier. Based on that assumption, they will probably slowly come back to top form I the next few weeks (but I will watch with interest to see what happens).

Now to my tip for this week:  I am not quite game to tip round 15 byes teams that are playing round 13 or round 14 bye teams (eg Hawks vs Swans); instead, I am going to go for two both which both had the bye in round 15 – Dockers and Cats.  Geelong was, by far, the more disappointing team first up; but the Dockers have been tipped over the edge recently – as far as injuries are concerned.  As such, they are much less likely than the Cats to be able to bounce back in the second week after the bye.

While some questions remain about the Cats in terms of premiership ambitions, the Dockers face a torrid time late this season as they attempt to plug gaps and blood inexperienced players; I expect the Cats to break away early (prior to half time) and to also win the second half; they should win by 7 goals plus.

 

Round 18, 2016 (all times are AET) Round begins Friday (at last – normality)!!

 

Tipping results for R17: Supertipping: 5 out of 9 (awful – but actually meant to tip 7 out of 9 – yuck!!) for a total of 106 +2 bonus = 108 and ranking dropped from 865 to 1,891  out of 42,490 tipsters (top 4%); – make sure you check your tips!!!

Streak: 4/4 (with Cats & Tigers recording struggling wins, then Dogs and Giants winning easily) so streak now up to 14 ; ranking improved from 4,525 to 2,757  (top 10%); an okay week unless you went for a 50/50 game and / or the Roos 

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there are now down from 647 to 409 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive

50/50: 1/3 (with the win being the Blues – getting close enough; but the losers being the Cats and Tigers not winning by enough); now at 19/42 = a poor 45%

Early thoughts for R18: the certs appear to be, at this stage, the Swans and maybe the Hawks; others to be tipped will probably be the Roos, Suns, Eagles, Dogs, Crows, dons and Giants – but this is about the toughest round of the season. 

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 COLL NMFC DCKLNDS  COLL  9  EXTREME  Tipped to win
2 SYD CARL SCG  SYD  55  HIGH  No hope
3 GCS FREO GLD CST  GCS  11  EXTREME  A chance
4 WCE MELB SUBI  WCE  30  HIGH  No hope
5 WBD STK DCKLNDS  WBD  13  HIGH  A tiny chance
6 GEEL ADEL GEEL  ADEL  5  EXTREME  Tipped to win
7 ESS BRIS DCKLNDS  ESS  20  EXTREME  A small chance
8 HAW RICH MCG  HAW  18  HIGH  A slim chance
9 PORT GWS ADEL  GWS  1  EXTREME  A huge chance

 

ROUND 18

Collingwood v North Melbourne at Docklands  Friday July 22 (7.50pm)
There was an story on Channel 7 news on Wed night about Tarrant having a scan; he has been named; watch for a possible late withdrawal or (even worse for Roos fans) for him to struggle.  Waite is out (after struggling 2H last week) and Goldstein had been below his best and playing like he is carrying an injury; the inclusion of Daw is interesting; they may need him to fire if they are to win; the problem for the Roos is that they are facing back to back games 6 days apart on the hard Docklands surface after coming back from Perth 6 days before that; the team is in a slump and were 6 goals down very early last week against Port.  On the other hand, the Pies are gradually getting back to reasonable form; they followed a huge upset loss in R16 with an honourable loss in Adelaide (2nd week on the road in a row); Grundy has hit top form – which has been a big help; Fasolo is back in and will help – and Adams has added depth to the midfield; and Cloke has been kicking a few goals and scoring well in SC; but the Pies haven’t been totally convincing; the concerns about both teams – especially North; an EXTREME variance game and Pies by 9 points in a minor upset
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 9 points but the Roos won by 40; analysis was miles off; actually, Collingwood began the week as total outsiders and maybe just started favourites after negative reports about the North players’ fitness during the week; rumours spread about Wells not playing; he got treatment during the game, but finished with 105 SC points;  the Pies lost Sinclair very early and lost the game very early; despite a late scare, the Roos had this game won in 1Q; the tip was wrong (which always hurts) but the positive as that the variance was tipped as EXTREME – and that it was – with the Roos 5 goals up very early; they led by 46 points; it was whittled back to under 3 goals; then below out to the final margin of 40 points; Fasolo returned from injury for very low numbers & Cloke had a shocker; the Roos are back!!

 

 

 

Sydney Swans v Carlton at SCG July 23  (1.45pm)
The Swans had the game 99% won last week, but somehow let it slip; this is BAD NEWS for the Blues; any feeling of overconfidence was blown away by the loss; the only possible concern for the Swan is the 9 day break between games; it could possibly led to a poor start, but the Hawthorn loss is likely to more than compensate for this likelihood.  The Blues have been poor since the bye except for last weekend – when they had an honourable, comeback type loss against an Eagles team that has struggled in recent times at the MCG.  The score line (a 7 point loss) may possibly lead people to be too bullish on the Blues this week (in terms of margin only – only diehards will be tipping them in this one); having said that, the Swans are massive favourites in this one and the experts seem to have got it about right; Casboult’s return is interesting; he has a heart like a cabbage, but his kicking has been letting him down; last week, Weitering went forward when somewhat injured and kicked 2 goals; how the youngster comes up on a 6 day break is questionable; Swans by 55 points and certs of the week.
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 55 points and they won by 6; analysis was very poor; it was assumed that the Swans would be savage after the previous week’s loss and would blow the Blues away; maybe the 9 day break was a negative for them; plus they seemed to experiment a bit in this game; Heeney came back in and struggled for a half; the Blues have done pretty well against higher ranked opponents; a CERT should NEVER really scrape in like that; sorry for the anxiety caused; at leased the Swans held the lead for most of the last half.

 

Gold Coast Suns v Fremantle at GLD CST Saturday July 23 (2.10pm)
These teams are well matched here – having the worst injury quotients in the league at 28 and 27 respectively; this fact alone makes it an EXTREME variance game; the Suns have now lost Hall and are more injured in the midfield; but the Dockers have heaps of problems as well; the home ground advantage will make the Suns the tip; last time they played, the Suns won in the west as huge outsiders; back then, they were expected to play finals; but, like the Dockers, proceeded to go on a huge losing streak;  the Suns were quite good late last week, while the Dockers were good early; but maybe the Cats were “just going” last week and made the Dockers look a bit better than they really were; the Pav rest was planned some time ago for this week (pity for the handful of SE QLD based Docker fans as he restricts his farewell tour) and has more to do with the travel factor than long term plans for winning and losing (and they hadn’t planned for so many injuries); 
it’s hard to get too excited about either team and it’s a game to avoid if you can; Suns by 11 points
Post match review: Suns were tipped by 11 points and they won by 24; analysis was reasonably good; the EXTREME variance call – the outcome was borderline; it was a team without a midfield against a team with a spine; the Suns (w/o midfield) eventually pulled away after looking a bit shaky at times; to make matters worse for the Suns, they lost YET ANOTHER midfielder before the game in Matt Rosa; with all the Suns mids out and Barlow also, Neale won the disposal count 42 to the next best 28! 

 

West Coast Eagles v Melbourne at Subiaco Oval  Saturday July 23 (4.35pm)
The Eagles have been very good at home this year and ordinary away; they at least got away with a road win last weekend; they had a few minor injury concerns which, perhaps, slowed them down last week; Priddis had a manageable corkie and the return of McKenzie should be a positive; but they weren’t all that impressive and the home ground advantage is the main reason for some confidence in the Eagles; the Dees were ordinary last week with Hogan and Watts both copping slight injuries last week; other possible causes of the bad loss to the Saints was the transition from hot to cold (back from Darwin the previous week); the other could be Saint-a-phobia (having not beaten them since 2006); but they often do well the week after playing the Saints (having beaten the Cats at Geelong in 2015 and, this year, downing the Suns by 73 points; this fact gives them the tiniest of chances and will mean that the Eagles won’t be tipped as total certs; Eagles by 30 points
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 30 points and they won by 6; analysis was just so-so; the big positive here was that the Eagles weren’t tipped as certs; this was clearly one that got away for the Dees; they won the inside 50s 66 to 37; they had 5 more scoring shots and a few went out on the full as well; they won the SC score 1747 to 1521; the Dees had 22 contributors with everyone scoring over 50 SC points, but the Eagles had 6 players under 50, including Yeo, Hill, Wellingham and Masten; if you tipped the Dees, you were robbed! If you tipped the Eagles as a certs, you dodged a bullet

 

Western Bulldogs v St Kilda at Docklands  Saturday July 23 (7.25pm)
The Dogs are doing okay and the Saints have improved despite being a bit patchy; with the Dogs being higher rated and a bit more reliable, they will be tipped – but not with a huge amount of confidence; The Dogs have a big Friday night game vs the Cats in R19, so they may drop off late in the game if it is in the bag one way or the other (which may not be the case!); it was noted by Terry Wallace on SEN 1116 today that the Saints had won 30 of their past 35 Saturday night Docklands games; interesting – goes back to their “top of the ladder” times – but still a good number! Dogs by 13 points
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 13 points but the Saints won by 15 ; analysis was fair here; many had tipped the Dogs by more and quite a few had them as absolute certs; the variance was tipped as HIGH but the game was, in actuality, an EXTREME variance game – with the Saints going from 2 goals down to about 3 up, then back to square, then wining by 15 points; the Dogs maybe had a chance but for losing Redpath and Morris in 3Q, then Wallis in the last; but the Saints were good enough to take advantage of their good fortune and defeat a top side; had you tipped the Dogs, you were maybe a tad unlucky; hopefully, this website helped steer someone away from tipping the Dogs as certs.

 

Geelong v Adelaide at Simonds Stadium Saturday July 23  (7.25pm)
Based on form alone, the Crows should win this; the Cats’ only win in the past month was a struggling win against a depleted Dockers outfit that made Geelong look like a side battling for 8th spot (not flag favourites – as they were a few weeks ago); meanwhile, the Crows are on a winning streak of 8; it is likely that many people will just look at this game and tip the Cats at home; and, of course, the home ground advantage is useful; but is it enough to offset the poor differential of the two teams? This may all get back to the mindset of the Cats; firstly, the Crows last loss was to Geelong in Adelaide – when Adelaide were only kept close because of poor conversion by Geelong (cf team line-ups then and now); since then, they have been terrific & have had few injury concerns; on that basis, they will win; but 2 things stand in Adelaide’s way; firstly, they have been up for a long time and may be due for a loss; of interest is that they have been virtually handed 2 wins in R19 and 20 when they play the bottom 2 teams at home; it is possible that they will use this as a time of high load training (and, therefore, lower output slightly on game day) in the build-up to being firing on all cylinders for the R22 Showdown and a home game against the Eagles to round out the H&Q season; if this is so, they may be just off 100% against the Cats; the other worry is that the Cats may follow the pattern of team that snap a losing sequence with a VERY UNIMPRESSIVE loss; even though the losing sequence for them was 2; it straddled the bye and would’ve seemed like an eternity between wins for the team and fans; often teams in this pattern improve dramatically the week following the win – and often with a flurry in the first half – and outperform expectations by 6-8 goals;  a team to do this recently was Collingwood (“worst win ever” against Carlton and then blitzed the Giants the following week – although their good patch was 2&3Q);
The Dogs have a big Friday night game vs the Cats in R19, so they may drop off late in the game if it is in the bag one way or the other; with doubts about the Cats being about to excel, the Crows will be the tip – by 5 points
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 5 points but the Cats won by 30; analysis was mixed; the bad is that the variance call was wrong and the Crows were tipped to win; a tiny positive is that a case was made for the Cats winning – despite having much poorer form; the pattern of the Cats winning as above was not quite correct either – they had a top 3Q and won by just less than 6-8 goals above expectations; the Crows were well supported after Smith (Zac of Geelong) was a late withdrawal and replaced by Menegola; but this was a blessing in disguise as it wasn’t really a night for big blokes and Menegola did extra well; the Crows weren’t helped by the fact that their INS (Brown and Laird) were a bit below their usual averages – and then they lost Talia in 3Q; Walker was on crutches after the game and he only scored 45 SC points

 

 

 

Essendon v Brisbane Lions at Docklands  Sunday July 24  (1.10pm)
Everything points to an Essendon win here; their form is better; they play at home and the Brisbane coach may be out the door at year’s end.  And the Dons will be tipped; but hysteria teaches us NOT to get too confident about a bottom placed team winning any time; one negative for the Bombers will be the huge weight of expectation as a favourite in this contest.  Can the Lions make use of the lack of pressure on them?  Maybe, but they also could get totally smashed as their season falls apart due to injuries + other factors; Martin copped a knock last week, but is expected to be ok; Cooney is back for the Dons, but not Crowley (as expected earlier in the week – he is in the VFL team); high draft pick Aaron Francis makes his debut for the Dons; Essendon by 20 points, but with EXTREME variance in a cellar-dweller clash
Post match review: Bombers were tipped by 20 points but the Lions won by 37; analysis was mixed again; the one positive was not to get too excirted about the Bombers (eg picking them as certs); the Lions seemed to relish the underdog tag and Rockliff scored 154 SC; Martin had a test for a hip problem, played and scored 162!!! Goddard (152) and Zac Merrett (137) almost matched them for Essendon; the Lions only won the SC score 1684 to 1618 but were more efficient going inside 50 (and won despite have 3 less scoring shots); the Bombers lost Bird to injury prior to game day

 

Hawthorn v Richmond at MCG Sunday July 24   (3.20pm)
No Deledio, no Richmond! So an easy tip here!  The Hawks will be tipped, but not as certs; the main reason is that they had a huge build-up for the Swans game and it was almost a “kick on the siren to win” game; it would have felt like that for the Hawks; then they get a long weekend off and play Sunday the following week (10 days later); the loss of Deledio could potentially further lull the Hawks into a false sense of security; even with all this, the Hawks would be expected to find a way to win; those on a long winning sequence of certs should avoid this game; new boys for Richmond – Markov, McBean and Castagna – are all currently on the 7-man IC bench; it will be interesting to see how many of them get picked; but it is likely that the Tigers will go for experience in this one; another benefit for Richmond is that they don’t panic when it comes to playing Hawthorn; Hawks by 18 points
Post match review: were tipped by  points and they won by ; analysis was miles off; the Tigers did, indeed, play all 3 new boys and none of them made it to 50 SC points; McBean missed 2 set shots when the game was still alive; and the Tigers did the typical thing that poorer teams do against the Hawks – win the hard ball and then blaze away or give it up under pressure; then the Hawks zip the ball the length of the ground back the other way; Grimes was injured and missed 4Q – when the Tigers really capitulated

 

Port Adelaide v GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval Sunday July 24   (4.40pm)
This game is expected to be played in wet & windy conditions; it is a tough game to tip; firstly, the Giants thrashed Port by 86 points in R4; the GWS team looked better on paper then than now, but not that much different; it’s hard to work out just how well the Giants are travelling since the bye – a loss to the Pies when they had their “worst 60 minutes for the year” and then an easy kill against the lowly Lions; this will be a test; and it is also hard to line up Port’s form; they were comfortably beaten by the Hawks 2 weeks ago, but had injuries on the night; then they had the Roos down and out by half time last weekend; they must be a big chance again – with the Giants on the road for the second week running; but the Giants will just get the nod – by a point!
Post match review: Giants were tipped by a point and they won by 19; analysis was pretty good here; the best thing was the call of EXTREME variance; Port jumped to a 20 point lead at HT, then the Giants kicked 7 of the next 8 to take control of the game; maybe the Giants struggled early due to the travel factor or the conditions; in any case; they recovered; perhaps the spark was the 50 Metres free paid to sharp shotter Ebert after the siren at HT v- which increased the lead to 20 points at the main break; the Giants were electric in 3Q with 5:4 to 1:2 in wet conditions

 

 

Certs: Swans (just barely got there!); for those still alive in the Gauntlet, other option if Swans used up would be Eagles, Hawks and maybe Bombers (1 lucky win; one big win; 1 loss)

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Collingwood to win or to lose by less than a point (gone halfway through 1Q); Tigers to win or to lose by less than 33 points (gone a long way out)

This is a hard week to tip! Have fun

 

Technical Analysis prior to R18, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 22 July 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was pretty awful really; 10% correct for tipping the cats to do okay prior to half time (second term was their best) but they never really looked like dominating the game; sorry, with frowny face

This week:  it will be short ans sweet; the Hawks had a huge build-up for the Swans game and won in what would have felt like a kick after the siren win (as Longggey notes above); this sets them up for a bit of a letdown; I reckon that the Tigers will either win or lose by less than 4 goals; I wouldn’t be surprised if Richmond had a really good first and or second term.

 

Round 19, 2016 (all times are AET) Round begins Friday 

 

Tipping results for R18: Supertipping: 5 out of 9 (poor) for a total of 111 +2 bonus = 113 and ranking dropped from 1,891 to 2.563  out of 42,490 tipsters (top 6%)

Streak: 1/1 (with Swans barely falling over the line) so streak now up to 15 ; ranking improved from 2,757 to 2,266  (top 8%); an tricky week – with many coming unstuck on the Dogs and Dons – plus the Swans and Eagles just barely got there! 

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there are now down from 409 to 30 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive (a huge drop and many probably tipped the Bombers this week)

50/50: 0/2 (with the losers being the Tigers and Pies – who were both thrashed); now at 19/44 = a poor 43%

Early thoughts for R19: the certs appear to be, at this stage, the Giants, Hawks, Dees, Swans and Crows; the Cats, Eagles, Port and Roos are also tipped – but with less confidence (all subject to change, of course)

 

 

ROUND 19

 

Friday July 29

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 GEEL WBD GEEL GEEL 34 HIGH No hope
2 GWS RICH CNBRRA GWS 21 EXTREME A slim chance
3 HAW CARL LNCSTN HAW  43 HIGH No hope
4 COLL WCE MCG COLL  7 EXTREME  Tipped to win
5 BRIS PORT GABBA PORT  24 EXTREME   A tiny chance
6 NMFC STK DCKLNDS NMFC  19 EXTREME  A small chance
7 MELB GCS MCG MELB  36 HIGH No hope
8 FREO SYD SUBI SYD  19 HIGH  A small chance
9 ADEL ESS ADEL ADEL  62 HIGH No hope

 

Geelong v Western Bulldogs at Simonds Stadium Friday July 29  (7.50pm)
Much has been made of the emotional outpouring at the Dogs after significant injuries to some players last week; the effect of all the emotion will be rated as having no effect; but what will hurt them is that, as well as losing Wallis, Redpath and Morris (which was expected), they also are now missing Matthew Boyd and Suckling; the last three mentioned are all defenders – with Boyd and Morris being the experienced heads to keep the defence going smoothly (now that Murphy is out for the year); with Adams also out, it just leaves the Dogs too depleted in defence to play anywhere near their top; the motivation will be high, but the ability to be able to re-jig a defence in 1 week with 3 important players all gone at once will be too great; things probably went well for the Cats last week – with Walker and Talia being njured for the Crows; so it was expected that they might be vulnerable this week; not now; Cats by 34 points
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 34 points and they won by 25; analysis was reasonably okay, but the Dogs were again restricted by injuries – losing Libba in 2Q and Macrae in 3Q (mothballed at 3QT) – so they had only 2 on the bench at 3QT; the Dogs actually travelled down to Geelong and stayed overnight Thursday; maybe this helped them – especially as the “new” group of defenders probably needed more time together; the Dogs did really well under the circumstances, but it is unlikely (but mathematically possible) that they would have won with a clean bill of health; the Cats may have been able to find a bit extra had the game been tighter in 4Q;  Tom Boyd (much talked about in terms of salary during the week) did very well with 3 goals and 88 SC points

 

 Saturday July 30 

GWS Giants v Richmond at StarTrack Oval  Saturday July 30 (1.45pm)
This will be an EXTREME variance game for a number of reasons; firstly, it is a bit hard to assess just how bad the Tigers were last week; they were in the game early, but missed some opportunities; but, in the end, injuries plus inexperienced players hitting the wall (especially late) caused them to capitulate against the Hawks and turn an honourable loss into a thrashing; Grimes sat out the last term and must be in some doubt for this week; their injuries (Edwards & Griffiths) plus new boys McBean and Castagna all failed to score 10 DT points in 4Q; Houli comes in, but only played 75% game time last week and might be a bit underdone; Lambert and Vickery come in after not setting the world on fire in the VFL, while yet another new guy in Marcon has earned his stripes with good form in the VFL.

So why not tip the Giants by heaps?  Well, it is the third week on the road n a row for them – having gone to QLD, SA and now ACT (for a home game); the third trip is a short one, but does come with some risk of suffer from travel-weariness; it was also a wintery wet day last week against Port; and Mummy was injured late against Port and ay need to pass a fitness test; if they can overcome those obstacles, then they should win.  Giants by 21 points
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 21 points and they won by 88; analysis was mixed; the good news was that the right team was tipped (no great feat) and, more importantly, the variance was correctly labelled as EXTREME (with the Giants leading 51 to 1 at QT and winning by 88 points); of interest was that the Tigers continued on from where they left last week’s shocker against the Hawks – they lost 4Q last week by 42 points and then 1Q today by 50 points; hard to stomach for a true fan!  One concern about the Giants was Mummy; he showed no signs of any injury early on and slowed up later – but the game was gone by then; and the Giants put to bed any travel worries by being 50 points up at QT; Stevie J and Rance were an absolute pleasure to watch

 

 

 

Hawthorn v Carlton at Aurora Stadium  Saturday July 30 (2.10pm)
Note that this is played in Launceston; it will be windy there and a chance of showers on Saturday – especially later in the game; ex Hawks assistant and now senior Carlton coach Bolton coached against the Hawks in the NAB down at Launceston earlier this year; but this is his first meeting against his old team for premiership points; games like this often end poorly for the “student”; in any case, the Hawks will be hot favourites here; and the Blues are on the road for the second week in a row; these negatives will be somewhat offset by the possibility that last week’s win by the Hawks was more due to the Tigers problems than the top form of Hawthorn; as such, the experts tip will be close to this one; there is a small chance that the Blues might totally capitulate here, but their recent form Hawks against finals teams gives some small reason for optimism; Hawks by 43 points and certs
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 43 points and they won by ; analysis was okay; the Hawks lost Cyril before the game and he was, ironically, replaced by first-gamer Hardwick – who had minimal impact; Brand and O’Brien also copped knocks; the Hawks were (barely) correctly labelled as certs, but the Blues have been brave against top 8 opposition recently

 

Collingwood v West Coast Eagles at MCG Saturday July 30  (4.35pm)
The Pies have been competitive against finals teams in the past two weeks – if you ignore the first few minutes of each game (when they found themselves 5 goals down both times); they struggled early AND late last week; having inclusion Fasolo score lowly and then go out injured didn’t help; and Cloke had a shocker as well; last week the Roos managed to win the game in 1Q and then staved off a Collingwood comeback; the Eagles were toweled up by the Crows in Perth in R12 and then have won five in a row – against the Roos when North was struggling – and four wins over teams placed 17, 18, 14 and 11 on the ladder; they got out of jail against the Dees last week; the Eagles have also struggled on the MCG; this will be a bit of a litmus test for them if they are to be a threat in the finals; notably, Nicnat was given another week off; they definitely play better with him in the team – and Grundy will enjoy this non-selection;  Collingwood had a FNS (Friday night shocker) last week); teams often bounce back well from such losses, but this enerally tends to work better in the first half of the season; having said that, the Bmbers are the main ones to drag down the average – with some Aboslute Shockers the week after a FNS late in the season in recent years; the tip is the Pies by 7 points, but with EXTREME variance
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 7 points and they won by 19; analysis was reasonably good; it is always a plus to correctly tip an outsider – with most tipping the Eagles; but the variance call proved to be wrong; the Eagles lost Yeo before the game – replaced by debutante Karpany (who scored 34 SC points); the previous week, the Pies were inept up forward, but Moore had 3:2 midway through 2Q and had 75 SC points; then he got injured; with the Pies a man down and then the Eagles got it back from almost 2 goals down to hit the lead early in 4Q – it was looking like an Eagles win; but the Pies slammed on 4 in a row to put the game away; in retrospect, the Eagles followed on from their poor form (but lucky win); Sheed played his first game for the year after injury interruptions – and struggled; Wills came in for his first game for the Pies and scored 85 SC including 11 tackles!! 

 

Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide at Gabba Saturday July 30  (7.25pm)
The Lions snapped a long losing sequence last week; teams that do this late in the year very often underperform the following week; but this looks to have already been taken into account – with Port being hot, hot favourites; Port looked like winning last week, but were overrun in 3Q last week against a quality opponent; the fact that the finals are ow out of the question for Port (unless you are a mathematician) may have one of two effects on them – cause their bubble to totally burst or (as often happens) suddenly spike in form with the pressure removed; there is also a chance that the Lions could continue their good form of last week; this possibility is made harder by the resting of Martin; the doubts on both team make this an EXTREME variance game; Port by 24 points but not certs
Post match review: Port was tipped by 24 points and they won by ; analysis was okay; the right team was tipped and the variance did turn out to be EXTREME; also the Lions snapped a long losing streak last week over the Bombers; it appears that they crashed down to earth in a big way after this breakthrough win (as can sometimes happen for a lowly team in this situation); Robinson was injured in 1Q and soldiered on, but only scored 61 SC; Butcher scored 4 goals and 132 SC points in a huge personal best; Smith played his first game for Brisbane and scored 96 SC points in the ruck – a sole positive

 

 

 

 

 

North Melbourne v St Kilda at Docklands Saturday July 30  (7.25pm)
The Saints have won about 30 of 35 on a Saturday night at the Docklands – and they did it again last week when the beat the Dogs; but the Dogs had terrible injury troubles on the night; so the win may not have been as good as it looked on paper; even so, the Saints were good enough to take advantage of their “rails run”; the Roos had a “line in the sand” type game last week and never really looked like losing it against the Pies; but Collingwood had their troubles (nothing compared to the Dogs last week, however); there may still be some doubt on the Roos – enough to make this an EXTREME variance game; if anything, the likelihood is that North will win by more than expected; Daw took the speccie of the year and now gets dropped for Waite; the Roos by 19 points but not certs

Post match review: Roos were tipped by 19 points and they won by 23; analysis was excellent in a game that was considered a danger game for the Roos; a plus for the Roos was that Dumont successfully tagged Steven; the Roos lost Waite in 2Q; did the Roos lift for 427 for Boomer? Probably more just the Roos re-establishing themselves after a big form slump and injury crisis; and also the Saints probably got teams at the right time in recent weeks (two teams coming back from the far north to Melb + injuries to the Dogs)

 

 

 

 Sunday July 31 

 

Melbourne v Gold Coast Suns at MCG Sunday July 31  (1.10pm)
The Suns inexperienced mids were really good last week and the coach thought it was his team’s best effort all year; but they played another injury-depleted team in Freo; this time they have to travel to play the Dees – who should have won last weekend in Perth; the Dees will win this one easily against a midfield that won’t be able to do it against a less injured team; the negative for Melbourne is that they may be flat after coming back from a Perth trip that they should have won; but this should be more than offset by the Suns’ problems; the Suns’ INS look positive: Rosa, Lemmens and McKenzie (all on 7 man IC bench at present); but Lemmens is underdone and McKenzie the same way, according to Marcus Ashcroft on the Suns website; so maybe not all will play; and often what happens in these instances is that the players that overachived the previous week in the absence of the better players can tend to “relax” just that few percent Dees by 36 points and certs
Post match review:
Dees were tipped by 36 points and they won by 2; analysis was a long way off; it appeared that they were a bit flat after coming back from that energy-sapping loss to the Eagles; the Dees and Eagles BOTH underperformed this weekend (interestingly); while the Dees would probably have been stiff to lose; Hogan was clearly hampered after a 2Q incident with a sore knee; the only 2 INS (Vandenberg for the Dees and Rosa for the Suns) both performed extra well; the Dees should’ve got a free right in front of goal with a minute to go, but it wasn’t paid (100% would have been paid early in the contest); all credit to the Suns who were gutsy despite being undermanned – the call of Melbourne as CERTS was incorrect (even though they fell over the line); SORRY for the stress caused to anyone.

 

Fremantle v Sydney Swans at Subiaco Oval  Sunday July 31 (3.20pm)
It is forecast to be wet and VERY windy in Perth on sunday.  There is / have been lots of milestones of note recently, but they hardly got a mention here; this match features Pav in his 350th (delayed 1 week so he could play it at home); it gives the Dockers something to play for in terms of motivation; the Swans will also want to win in order to fight for a top 4 spot; both teams are off their best in terms of injuries – with the Swans going with a third ruck option in the absence of Tippett and Sinclair (1 of 3 Sinclairs to go out this week – a bit of trivia for you); the Swans should have just enough in the tank to win; they usually travel to Perth pretty well; Swans by 19 points but not certs

Post match review: Swans were tipped by 19 points and they won by 90; analysis was poor, but at least got away with tipping a winner; for the Dockers, Walters had a shocker with 23 SC points despite taking a speccie; Lloyd was injured for the Swans, but late in the game when the contest was well and truly over; the Swans, have played very well in the west in the past (as mentioned above) and this was no exception; the depleted Dockers mids were smashed by the good Sydney midfield; Blakely being dropped from the team was a slight surprise and the coach was asked after the game if he was missed in the midfield and said something like “not particularly” (= he needs to work on things); a good percentage boost for the Swans.

 

 

 

 

Adelaide v Essendon at Adelaide Oval Sunday July 31  (4.40pm)
You don’t have to be Young Einstein to work out the the Crows are the CERTS of the WEEK! The Bombers fell over under the weigh of expectation last week and will have no hope here; the Crows had their winning streak broken last week, but they had a few injury problems on the day; this week, their opposition is much lower on the ladder and they play at home; Talia has been named but maybe has got to pass a fitness test.  With or without him, they will win by heaps  and the percentage could come in handy; Crows by 62 points and CERTS
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 62 points and they won by 81; analysis was okay; Talia got through his test and really excelled; the Bombers have had trouble against small forwards and Betts kicked 5; nothing else to write about here, except that Essendon kicked the last 3 goals of the game and it cost the Crows 4th spot.

 

Certs: Crows , Hawks, Dees and Cats (all won, but the Dees almost got rolled)

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): All of these somewhat risky and not a good week for 50/50 tipping: Tigers to win or to lose by less than 38 points(gone at QT); Pies to win or to lose by less than a goal (an up and down game but the Pies pulled away late); Roos to win by over 13 points (always looked likely and won by enough)

This is a a much easier week to tip than last week! Have fun and don’t go for too many oursiders

 

 

Technical Analysis prior to R19, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 29 July 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was waaay off; the Tigers started okay, but then totally fell apart late in the game; see Longggey’s review of the game and preview of the Richmond GWS game for what went wrong; but it also seems that the Hawks have a habit of defying all known trends; maybe I will steer away from games in which they play for now

This week, the Suns are in the gun; their coach said that “it was arguably the best win of the season… our midfield really stood up”.  This midfield was missing Ablett, O’Meara (played NEAFL but nowhere near being ready), Swallow, Hall, Rischitelli and Rosa, with Lemmens coming back in the NEAFL and playing 60% game time; see Longgey’s note about their INS; they may, perhaps, get 1 mid back this week; let’s say Rosa comes back; the other mids have outperformed expectations last week against a Dockers midfield missing Fyfe, Barlow and Sandilands plus a host of key position players; now they face a Melbourne team with a full compliment of mids;  another point about he coach’s praise is that it is often followed by a poorer performance – especially at the lower end of the ladder; it wasn’t an incorrect thing to do; the team needed praise for effort, and it may help them in future; but probably not this week; Dees by over 8 goals