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Round 14, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R14, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 01 Jul 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the Hawks / Bombers preview wasn’t that great.  It appears that the Hawks struggled to start after a 9 day break.  But the analysis of the Swans Tigers was really tops; overall, I feel satisfied with my week’s work.

 

This week, the game to view is Crows versus Geelong.  The Crows had a round 11 bye and the Cats had one last week (round 13).  As a general rule, the team third up after the bye does well against the team first up after the bye.  The third up teams did the following versus expectation:
2012: +2 points, +51 points and +55 points
2013: +52
2014 was a mixed bag with +41, -42 and -93.  The oddball cases were the last two.  The third up teams were the Tigers who were blown away early by Essendon and the Cats who were totally thrashed by the Swans.  The Bombers went to the break with awful form and the Swans were flying going into the break.

I am happy to record these as anomalies.  The Swans usually hold their mid-season form well once they find it; and the Bombers are the Jekyll and Hyde team anyway.

Furthermore, the Crows and Hawks played a round 12 Thursday night game after their bye and both teams were very flat early the following week – with both teams having 9 day breaks.  I expect the Crows (more so than the Hawks) to come out firing this weekend.

Given that the Cats were awful the week before the bye, they may also be fired up early.  So the Crows might break away in either the first or second quarter.  My guess is that they will make their decisive move in the second. Of course, wind direction and strength may affect the scoring in this game.

The general consensus is that the Crows may just sneak over the line – or it is line-ball.  I see the Crows winning by over three goals.