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Round 14, 2015

Round 14, 2015 (starts Thursday 2 July at 7.20PM Eastern) and preview to be completed by 2 AM Thursday!)

Analysis is done with only the teams for the Swans / Port game known; this is done to give those who have to tip in office hours Thursday as much help as possible; please refer to expected changes for games 2 – 9 versus actual changes on Thursday night (but don’t over-react to unexpected outs)

SuperTipping results for R13: 5 winners for a total of 77 + 2 bonus pts = 79 and ranking improved from 794 to 717 out of 46,661 tipsters (top 2% – excellent)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 3 out of 3 (with the Dogs & Dockers falling over the line and the Hawks breezing in).  Streak is now back up to 6. Ranking improved from 730 to 649 (improvement due to NOT tipping the Swans as certs) and in top 3%.

50/50 tips: 2 out of 4 for the week (Tigers winning and Lions losing small were the positives; Hawks and Dogs did not win by enough) and 13 out of 36 for the year = a result of an improving but very poor 36% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.

Down the gurgler in R12 in the Pick 5 – along with most others. There are a mere 306 tipsters remain in the comp

From now on, those still in the Gauntlet comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear.

Early thoughts for R14: the last round of the bye throws up some tricky games. Likely tips at this early stage would be Swans, Hawks, Tigers, Roos, Dogs, Eagles, Bombers, Crows and Dockers – with the certs being the Dockers and Eagles; with upset chances given to the Saints and Pies

The byes are now gone!

Round 14, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

SYD

PORT

SCG

SYD

23

EXTREME

A small chance

2

COLL

HAW

MCG

HAW

23

HIGH

A small chance

3

RICH

GWS

MCG

RICH

52

HIGH

No hope

4

GCS

NMFC

Gold Cst

NMFC

15

EXTREME

A small chance

5

WBD

CARL

Docklands

WBD

20

HIGH

A small chance

6

MELB

WCE

Darwin

WCE

29

HIGH

No hope

7

ESS

STK

Docklands

STK

2

HIGH

Tipped to win

8

ADEL

GEEL

ADEL

ADEL

20

HIGH

A small chance

9

FREO

BRIS

SUBI

FREO

44

HIGH

No hope

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

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Bye: GEEL, GWS, MELB, NMFC, PORT,WCE

Please refer to Penny’s preview of this game here:  http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-13-2015-penny

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1 SYD         vs.      PORT         SCG  Thurs, 2 July 7:20 pm

Weather: dry; breezy

The Swans to bounce back

The Swans had the bye 2 weeks ago and the Tigers had their bye last weekend

The temptation here is to pick the Swans as certs. They would have been thought of as certs prior to last week.  But then they lost to Richmond and out goes Buddy + Kurt Tippett at once via suspension.

But there is some good news for the Swans.  Firstly, teams that underperform first up after a bye have a very good record next up.  This is a plus for Sydney.  Next is that Mike Pyke comes back (strangely, Toby Nankervis also comes in to replace Tom Derickx – maybe as insurance for Pyke?).  Also, teams that throw away a big lead (Swans were up by 32 points at HT last week and lost) tend to exceed expectations the following week.  And these teams often start like a rocket – making 1Q vital for Port (who cannot afford to get totally jumped).

Having noted that, the temptation to tip the Swans as certs returns.  But the temptation will be resisted because of the following:  in 2013, an improving Port team had gone to the bye with a string of under-performances.  They came off the bye and towelled up the Giants good and proper and then proceeded to score big upset wins over the Swans and then Pies.

Maybe the week off will do Port good – especially as there was plenty of emphasis on the Crows during this time.  This may help to ease the pressure off Port.  Their season is on the line right now as they play the Pies and Crows next after Sydney.

The thought is that the first scenario (Swans bouncing back well despite losing Buddy and Kurt) is more likely.  But the doubt will make this an EXTREME variance game.

Swans by 23 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 23 points and they won by 10. Analysis was pretty good in this case. The Swans copped some injuries during the game but still managed to tough it out.  The scoring pattern did not to be EXTREME, however.  It is deemed that the Swans would have won by more had they had an even break and, as such, the analysis was good even though the end result didn’t fully show it

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2 COLL      vs.      HAW   MCG        Fri, 3 July 7:50 pm

Weather: dry; moderate breeze

The Hawks are likely to win

The Pies had their bye two weeks ago and the Hawks had their bye a week earlier

Possible significant team changes:

Pies:
INS: Darcy Moore is a chance to debut after doing well in the VFL, while Brodie Grundy might be ready to play after a neck injury – maybe one more week; Levi Greenwood is close to a senior game after a couple of VFL games
OUTS: Tyson Goldsack has knee issues, but is expected to play
Hawks:
INS: Cyril Rioli missed last week to attend a funeral and should return this week
OUTS: James Frawley is a definite out
The Pies were gallant in defeat last weekend against Fremantle.  With a bit more concentration, they could’ve pulled off a huge upset.  Now they have a 9 day break back from Perth to play the Hawks.

Hawthorn has beaten the Pies in all 7 games since the Pies won the 2011 prelim by a whisker.  It will be tough for the Magpies to win this one with a longer injury list.

The trip back from Perth is interesting.  Collingwood do very well on the road, but tend to struggle somewhat the week after.  Normally the 9 day break would be deemed too long for player continuity, but could it help the Pies – given that the Perth trip needs some recovery time.  It is expected that it will be a slight negative.

Like game 1, there is a temptation to pick the Hawks as certs.  But this won’t be done because there is just a small concern that they could be over-confident (as a result of winning the 2014 flag by a big margin).

Hawks by 23 points but not certs

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 23 points and they won by 23 points and they won by 10.  Analysis was fair.  There were doubts on both teams and happy to get out of it with a correct tip.  The tightness of the game confirmed the decision NOT to label the Hawks as certs.  the Hawks would have been tipped by a bit less once Roughy came out of the team.

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3 RICH       vs.      GWS MCG Sat, 4 July 1:40 pm

Weather: shower or two and breezy

The Tigers to roll on

The Tigers had the bye 3 weeks ago and the Giants had their bye last weekend

Possible significant team changes:

Tigers:
INS: Matt Thomas is doing well in the VFL and could possibly be upgraded; David Astbury has had one game back in the VFL after injury and will probably play VFL again

OUTS: nothing obvious
Giants:

INS: Adam Tomlinson comes back, but in the NEAFL; Stephen Coniglio is a test – maybe less than 50%; Andrew Phillips and Tom Scully are both ok after being late withdrawals in the club’s last match

OUTS: the club says Nick Haynes will miss with a groin injury
Can the Tigers be trusted?  The answer is “yes” – at least for this week. Although the Swans may have been a bit down when coming off the bye, the Giants are too depleted in terms of tall to be a threat to Richmond this time.

It is also a positive that Richmond is third up off the bye compared to GWS first up.  The only danger is that the Tigers would have enjoyed their weekend off last weekend (after winning on Friday night).  This concern will be igoed and the Tigers tipped as certs.

Tigers by 52 points and certs

Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 52 points and they won by 9; analysis was poor in this case; too much emphasis was placed on the fact that the Giants were first up from the bye.  In the previous week, Richmond played the Swans who were themselves first up from the bye.  It also appears that the Tigers DID enjoy their “weekend off” last week after winning on a Friday night over a top ranked opponent.  Lucky to scrape out of it with a win and apologies for the stress caused to those who tipped the Tigers as certs

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4 GCS vs. NMFC Metricon Stadium          Sat, 4 July 4:35 pm

Weather: dry; light breeze; moderate humidity

The Roos should do it

The Suns had the bye two weeks ago and the Roos had their bye last weekend

Possible significant team changes:

Suns:
INS: at last, Gazza is expected back; David Swallow has been cleared to play, but may come through the NEAFL; Josh Glenn may also come back as well; Rory Thompson looks likely to return after one game back in the NEAFL

OUTS: Charlie Dixon is unlikely after being subbed out with an ankle injury
Roos:

INS: a plethora of players doing well in the VFL; Ryan Bastinac may be in the front of the queue

OUTS: nothing obvious
The Suns’ team is likely to look better this weekend, but please note that a big story has just broken about Harley Bennell (refer Thursday’s Herald Sun).  This story may result in Bennell not playing this weekend.  Alternatively, the story could affect his form and/or the form of the whole team.  The story looks like a disaster for the club and the AFL, but it could be the thing that begins to turn things around for the Suns.

In any case, the Suns are likely to go into the game with 1 or 2 players underdone.  Just looking at all those things, it seems that the Roos should be heavily favoured.  But they are first up from the bye and travelling interstate.  Add to this that Nick Dal Santo is second up from a long break and then gets a bye.  He may struggle to excel this week.

The Roos really need to nail this one to strengthen their finals chances.

All the off field news, the bye situation and the doubt on how fit some of the Suns will be, will make this an EXTREME variance game.

Roos by 15 points but not certs.

Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 15 points but the Suns won by 55; analysis was not the best for tipping a loser, but it was fantastic in that the game was labelled as EXTREME variance.

It appears that the dual factors of Ablett + Swallow back + the Bennell story propelled the Suns to victory; and also the Roos were awful first up from the bye (as many teams have been recently);  Dal Santo did well second up, but a lot of his compatriots underperformed terribly.  Hopefully, this analysis helped someone avoid tipping the Roos as certs

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5 WBD        vs.      CARL         Docklands   Sat, 4 July 7:20 pm

The Dogs, probably

The Dog and the Blues both had their bye 3 weeks ago

Possible significant team changes:

Dogs:
INS: several players pushing up – Jack Redpath  may get a game if Minson is omitted; Mitch Honeychurch and Nathan Hrovat are also chances

OUTS: Will Minson has been red vested in the past 2 games, but doesn’t seem to be injured; it is not clear if he’ll remain in the team – maybe he might be considered a good match-up for Matthew Kreuzer; new boys Lukas Webb and Bailey Dale have produced low numbers and may be replaced by more experienced players
Blues:
INS: Michael Jamison has played 2 VFL games back from an injury and is a good chance to play; Andrew Walker is a test, but considered likely to play; Blaine Boekhorst did well in the VFL
OUTS: Troy Menzel copped a knee injury and hasn’t been ruled out, but must be doubtful; Andrew Carrazzo copped a toe injury last week and is hopeful to come up again, but will be tested late in the week

The Dogs have played St Kilda twice this year. The first time they threw away a 51 point lead to lose.  Then, last week, they looked to have the game won but ended up falling over the line as if half dead.

Working out why this happened is the key to tipping this week. Marcus Bontempelli missed with injury R10, then had a bye and then played R12 &13.  He wasn’t quite at his best last weekend and is expected to improve this week.  Same goes for Dale Morris – who came off a long break last weekend.

Jake Stringer recorded poor numbers last weekend and should improve.  The big mystery is Will Minson.  He has been subbed off in his last 2 games.  If he can produce his best, this would make the tip on the Dogs much safer.

The Blues have Matthew Kreuzer just back from injury and it appears that he has never played against Minson.  This clash may go a long way to deciding the game.

Carlton really had the Suns down for the count last weekend and looked set for a 7 – 10 goal win, but didn’t quite nail it.  The inability to really bury the Suns suggests that the Blues current upsurge in form is unsustainable.

But the assessment of Carlton’s form is not 100% certain – so the Dogs won’t be tipped as certs – even though it is tempting.  The other uncertainty is about how well Michael Jamison comes back – assuming he comes in.

The Dogs by 20 points but not certs.

Post Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 20 points and they won by 11; analysis was okay; the Dogs seemed to be going to romp away late but struggled. This late game slowdown – even though the Dogs never really looked like losing – justifies not tipping them as certs.

Both teams had significant injury problems in the game and maybe the Dogs were a little worse off in this regard.  But they still look like a share about to plunge in market price.  Don’t get too over-confident in tipping them over the next month.

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6 MELB      vs.      WCE TIO Stadium       Sat, 4 July 7:10 pm

Weather: dry; breezy; low humidity

The Eagles are certs

The Dees had the bye last weekend and the Eagles had their bye a week earlier

Possible significant team changes:

Dees:
INS: Jesse Hogan returns, along with Colin Garland

OUTS: nothing obvious
Eagles:

INS: Sam Butler is injury free and may return, while Mark Hutchings is a chance after good WAFL form

OUTS: Jamie Cripps, Jeremy McGovern and Will Schofield all played before the bye and got heavy knocks; all three are listed as “tests” but are expected to be fine
The Dees and Eagles both had big wins last weekend as outsiders.  Melbourne hadn’t won down at Geelong for years and celebrated the win like a finals’ victory.  IT is probably going to be hard for them to reproduce this form after such a big buzz and then having the bye.  Helping them win was the form of Max Gawn against a team without a real ruckman.  Gawn won’t get an easy a run against Nicnat and friends.

Meanwhile, the Eagles just keep rolling on.  They were great against Richmond – although maybe the Tigers didn’t come up after the bye.

The Eagles by 29 points and certs

Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 29 points and they won by 54; the tip looked like being almost perfect until the Eagles blew the Dees away late.  Possibly the Dees had more of a letdown after their big win before the bye than the Eagles did for their good win.  Anyway, the Eagles were correctly tipped as certs

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7 ESS           vs. STK     Docklands   Sun, 5 July 1:10 pm

The Saints in an upset

The Bombers and the Saints both had the bye two weeks ago
Possible significant team changes:

Dons:
INS: David Zaharakis did well in the VFL in his return from a long break; Heath Hocking played his first game for the year and is
unlikely to return to the senior side just yet; Dustin Fletcher is sick and is unlikely to come in
OUTS: Peter Larkins noted that Jobe Watson copped a minor AC strain, but should play; Jake Carlisle is a definite out
Saints:
INS: Sam Fisher will come in if he can “train strongly” according to coach Richardson; same goes for Jack Billings; Jack Sinclair can be upgraded now that Tom Curren is out for the year with injury
OUTS: nothing obvious

The key to this game is player fitness and availability.  The Saints have an injury quotient of 6 compared to Essendon 20.  The Saints’ injury quotient was as high as 18 at the start of the season.  That just swings the tip to St Kilda.  They met earlier in the year – with the Bombers falling over the line by 2 points.  If Doc Larkins’ notes about Watson mean that he doesn’t play up to 100%, this makes the Saints an even better tip.

Of course, one should never be overly confident about a team as far down the ladder as the Saints.  So there is o thought whatsoever about tipping them as certs.

A concern for both teams is that both of their R13 opponents may be slightly underperformed – making St Kilda and Essendon look a bit better last week than they really were.  This probably evens itself out.

In the end, the lack of big men for Essendon (Jake Carlisle and Tom Bellchambers both out – with Shaun McKernan filling in for big Tom in the ruck) will mean that the Saints are the tip – despite being the lower ranked team.

Saints by 2 points

Post Match Review: Saints were tipped by 2 points and they won by 108; this is the best ever tipping while being 108 points away from the mark.  Please note above the reference to Watson; he clearly was NQR and possibly wouldn’t have played – except that it was his 200th game and that tied in with a grand final reunion for the club.

Everything fell apart for the Dons with the following SC numbers: Watson 44; Goddard 30; Zaharakis (just back from injury) 56; Stanton 53

But all credit to the Saints who were really good.

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8 ADEL      vs.      GEEL         ADEL Oval          Sun, 5 July 2:50 pm

Weather: dry; breezy

The Crows – with a bit of confidence

The Crows had the bye three weeks ago and the Cats had their bye last weekend

Possible significant team changes:

Crows:
INS: Ricky Henderson or Jarryd Lyons may come in to replace Sloane
OUTS: out goes Rory Sloane
Cats:
INS: Jimmy Bartel is expected to play, but Mitch Clark isn’t ready to come back yet; Dawson Simpson and Billy Smedts may be chances to return after one game back in the VFL from injury; Nakia Coackatoo was listed in the AFL’s “in the mix”, but the Cats’ physio had ruled him out for R14; James Kelly is a test and some chance to come back
OUTS: Jordan Murdoch is very likely to go out with a hammie

Please refer to Penny’s analysis of this game here:

http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-14-2015-penny

The article by penny raises one interesting point: the Crows and Hawks (who had the R11 bye and played each other on Thursday night R12 and then both had 9 day breaks to R13 games in which both were hot favourites) both started slowly in R13.

The Crows will lose Rory Sloane and the Cats are likely to get back Jimmy Bartel.  This will give people the false impression that the Crows’ injury problems are worse than that of the Cats.  But the reverse is true.

On top of that, the Cats may have some underdone players in the team – Bartel, maybe James Kelly and Dawson Simpson.

The Cats just cannot get any continuity in term of getting fit players onto the field.  Their injury quotient is 25 compared to 19 for the Crows.  Add that to the home ground advantage and you come up with a comfortable Crows victory.

The Crows by 20 points, but not quite certs.

Post Match Review:  Match abandoned

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9 FREO      vs.      BRIS Subi  Sun, 5 July 2:40 pm

Weather: dry; light winds

The Dockers are certs

The Dockers had the bye two weeks ago and the Lions had their bye a week earlier

Possible significant team changes:

Dockers:
INS: talls Zac Clarke, Matt Taberner and Jon Griffin are doing well at WAFL level as well as Tendai Mzungu
OUTS: with a Tassie game against Hawthorn coming up in R15, Aaron Sandilands, Matthew Pavlich and a few others could possibly be rested
Lions:
INS: Zac O’Brien and Sam Mayes starred in the NEAFL and are chances to return, but Daniel Merrett was eased into his fist game for many weeks in the NEAFL and is likely to be given another week at least before playing for the Lions senior team
OUTS: Stefan Martin is out suspended; Pearce Hanley is a test for hammie tightness suffered against the Crows last week

The big issue with this game is not tipping the winner.  It is working out the margin.

The Lions fell over late last week after leading the Crows by 4 goals for most of the day.  The Crows probably started slowly due to the 9 day break.

Now they have to travel to Freo and look likely to get slaughtered.  If the Dockers had to win by 100 points to get a home final, they may be able to do it.  But there are a couple of reasons why the Dockers may not absolutely thrash the Lions:
A: they have a game in Launceston versus Hawthorn the next week and may rest players – or take their stars off late in the game
B: they come into this game off a 10 day break – after playing the Pies on Thursday the previous round.
C: there is such little motivation to do anything else other than just bank the 4 points.

As such, the margin tipped won’t be monstrous.  Dockers by 44 points and certs

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 44 points and they won by 36; analysis was pretty good here with most tipping a huger win;  the Dockers didn’t seem to be in top form, but did enough to win like a good team when they needed to pull something out; this was a good lead-in to the Hawthorn game;  the Dockers were correctly tipped as certs

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Best cert: the Tigers (fell over the line), then the Dockers (drew away late) and Eagles (never in doubt)

Best Outsider:  the Saints are the best outsider (safe very early in the game) – with small chances to many others

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): The Swans to win by more than 15 points (just failed, but unlucky); the Tigers to win by more than 32 points (never a hope); the Dogs to win by more than 14 points (always looked likely until the Blues finished okay); the Saints to win or to lose by less than 4 points (never in doubt); the Crows to win by more than 5 points (scratched).

Happy tipping!  This week may be harder than it looks! (but there was only 1 BIG upset)