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Round 15, 2015

Round 15, 2015 (starts Thursday 9 July at 7.20PM SA time = 7.50PMEastern) and preview to be completed by 2 AM Thursday!)

Analysis is done with only the teams for the Swans / Port game known; this is done to give those who have to tip in office hours Thursday as much help as possible; please refer to expected changes for games 2 – 9 versus actual changes on Thursday night (but don’t over-react to unexpected outs)

SuperTipping results for R14: 7 winners + 1 for the cancelled Crows / Cats game = 8 for a total of 85 + 2 bonus pts = 87 and ranking improved from 717 to 369 out of 46,693 tipsters (top 1% – elite)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 3 out of 3 (with the Tigers just getting there, then Eagles and Dockers both drawing late to win easily).  Streak is now up to 9. Ranking declined from 649 to 650 (with a few bowing out due to tipping the Roos and a few others doing well with the other favourites winning) and in top 3%.

50/50 tips: 1 out of 4 for the week (Saints won well, but Dogs threw away a decent lead late in the game, Tigers never looked likely to win by enough and the Swans were a bit unlucky with injuries, but didn’t win by enough) and 14 out of 40 for the year = a result of a very poor 35% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.  There are now only 286 tipsters left in the Gauntlet

Down the gurgler in R12 in the Pick 5 – along with most others. There are now  331 tipsters remain in the Pick 5 (after they said only 306 were left in it a week or two ago!)

From now on, those still in the Gauntlet comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear.

Early thoughts for R15: the early tips are: 
certs: Roos
confident about: Tigers, Dogs, Giants, Swans
uncertain but tipping: Pies, Dees, Eagles, Hawks
best outsiders: Dockers

Round 15, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

PORT

COLL

Adel

2

RICH

CARL

MCG

3

ESS

MELB

MCG

4

WBD

GCS

Cairns

5

NMFC

GEEL

Docklands

6

WCE

ADEL

Subi

7

GWS

STK

Homebush

8

HAW

FREO

Launceston

9

BRIS

SYD

Bris

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected