Round 16, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R16, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 15 Jul 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was perfect in every way.  No need to say any more


This week, there are two games of interest.  The first is Dees versus Lions.  Melbourne was expected to win last week, but tripped up against Essendon.  The Bombers had had a “heart to heart” type meeting leading up to last weekend.  It seemed to work – although the Dees kicked themselves out of it in the second term.

It is assumed that the Bombers were far more “up” for this game than in any other recent matches.  The Dees, then, should be expected to bounce back hard after this effort.  Their form the week after an upset loss is reasonable, if you exclude when they were beaten in round 1 in recent years.

The Lions have looked fairly good recently against the Crows, Dockers and Swans.  In each case, they have run out of gas late in the game.  A reason for their 3 opponents underperforming can be found in every instance.  The Crows were coming off a 9 day break after a big first up game against the Hawks.  Fremantle were coming off a 10 day break and the Lions game was sandwiched between games against Collingwood and Hawthorn.  And the Swans were also coming off a 10 day break from an important and taxing game against Port and had to play the Lions prior to a big game against the Hawks.  All three scenarios would, should and did cause the Lions’ three opponents to underperform slightly – and, therefore, this artificially inflated the merit of the Lions last three games (all losses, mind you).  It may pay to remember that the Lions towelled them up by 72 points before that in round 12.  The Dees are slight favourites to win, but I expect them to win by over 3 goals.

Next, we move to the Swans and Hawks at ANZ stadium.  The Hawks were brilliant last week and would appear to some to be on an unstoppable roll to 3 in a row.

But there a couple of reasons to tip against Hawthorn. Firstly, the Dockers Tassie record against the hawks is awful and the form line through this game maybe cannot be trusted.  Next, the Hawks are on the road for the second week in a row.

Thirdly, see above for why the Swans may not have been at their absolute top last weekend.  The Hawks are slight favourites here and I am tipping the Swans.

The Swans are far from certs, but I reckon that the experts are slightly overrating the Hawks at present.