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Round 16, 2015

Round 16, 2015 (starts at the normal Friday night time – at last!)

SuperTipping results for R14: 7 winners for a total of 92 + 2 bonus pts = 94 and ranking improved from 369 to 303 out of 46,743 tipsters (top 1% – elite)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 2 out of 2 (with the Roos and Swans both winning comfortably).  Streak is now up to 11. Ranking declined from 650 to 707 (with a few other tipsters being a bit more aggressive) and in top 4%.

50/50 tips: 1 out of 1 for the week (with the Roos winning easily) and 15 out of 41 for the year = a result of a very poor but improving 36% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.  There are now only 77 tipsters left in the Gauntlet

Down the gurgler in R12 in the Pick 5 – along with most others. There are now  223 tipsters remain in the Pick 5

From now on, those still in the Gauntlet comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear. 

Early thoughts for R16: the certs appear to be the Dockers &Roos; the other tips are Cats, Giants, Swans, Dees, Port and Tigers in a very tough round to pick

Round 16, 2015

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 NMFC ESS Docklands NMFC 34 HIGH No hope
2 GEEL WBD Geel WBD 1 EXTREME Tipped to win
3 GCS GWS Gold Coast GWS 9 HIGH A definite chance
4 COLL WCE Docklands WCE 3 HIGH A definite chance
5 SYD HAW ANZ Syd SYD 2 HIGH Tipped to win
6 FREO CARL Subi FREO 56 HIGH No hope
7 MELB BRIS MCG MELB 19 HIGH A tiny chance
8 PORT ADEL ADEL PORT 4 EXTREME A definite chance
9 STK RICH Docklands RICH 19 HIGH A tiny chance

 

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

 

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1 NMFC      vs.      ESS   Docklands   Fri, 17 July 7:50 pm

The Roos are certs
There is one danger only to the Roos.  The Bombers snapped a five game losing streak with a modest win last weekend.  Teams that are at least half decent often excel the week after such a win.  If this is the case for Essendon, then the most likely way they would / could win would be to come flying out of the blocks early and then maintain their lead.  If this happens, you will understand why.

 

The reason this is NOT expected to happen was that the win last week for the Bombers (after a horrible loss the previous week and a heart to heart team meeting thereafter) was a huge win in the scheme of things.

 

They have too many players out injured to be much of a chance.  Their youngsters did okay last week, but there is some doubt as to whether they can repeat the dose this time

 

Meanwhile, Brad Scott dropped Lindsay Thomas last week (still not back yet) and Boomer was the sub.  The clear message is that he is not going to stand for (if you will pardon the pun) players departing from the team values.  This message should keep the Roos on track this week.

 

The injury to James Hird is likely to have little impact on the outcome.  The Roos by 34 points and certs

Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 34 points and they won by 25; the analysis was fairly good.  The Roos seemed a bit sluggish early, but quickly reeled in the Bombers after half time and were correctly labelled as certs (even if they took a while to control the game).

 

 

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2 GEEL      vs.      WBD Simonds Stadium Sat, 18 July 1:45 pm

Weather: dry; light winds

This is a game to avoid if you can; maybe the Dogs
There are concerns for both teams in terms of big men.  The Cats have dropped Dawson Simpson (their only ruckman left on two legs, but he has been out of form) – leaving part timer Mark Blicavs to do it mostly on his own.  But Simpson is an emergency and Mitch Duncan has been surprisingly named; so maybe there could be a late change.  The Cats also lose Joel Selwood and Jared Rivers.

 

The Dogs stormed home to win last weekend, but the Suns ran out of puff and players.  It is difficult to rate value of the Dogs’ win last weekend.  Prior to that, they had been struggling late in games.  They also have big man issues.  Will Minson and Fletcher Roberts both go out injured – and Tom Campbell has been promoted after doing well in the VFL.

 

The big men will be the key to the game.  The Cats have been struggling to get the ball away from stoppages as it is – now they have no real rucks and Selwood is out.

 

The Dogs should really be able to exploit this advantage, but they have two hurdles to overcome.  First, there is the dual problem of playing at Geelong against a team they haven’t beaten since 2009.  Next, the Cats were awful first up from a double bye. Teams that do so poorly “first up” tend to excel the following week.

 

But the poor form before and after the bye is probably more due to the players missing.

 

Dogs by a point, but this is an EXTREME variance game.

Post Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 1 point but the Cats won by 8; analysis was costly, because the Cats were the favourites.  The two keys to this game were Koby Stevens going out as a late withdrawal (that would have been enough to change the tip) and then Mitch Duncan (probably coming back too early according to Peter Larkins) excelling.  That was the difference between the tip (Dogs by a point) and the result.  The scoring pattern was the opposite to EXTREME variance, however.

 

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3 GCS         vs.      GWS   Metricon Stadium        Sat, 18 July 2:10 pm

Weather: dry; Moderate breeze and humidity

The Giants – without total confidence
The Giants have an injury quotient of 16 compared to 28 for the Suns.  This – together with the instability of the Suns team because of injury – will mean that the Giants are the tip.

 

Another key to GWS is that they are leaning to play without Mummy. There midfield looks stronger at present than that of the Suns (missing Jaeger O’Meara, David Swallow, Harley Bennell, Jack Martin and Dion Prestia).

 

It is difficult to assess the merit of the Suns’ last 2 games.  They were very good against the Roos, but the Roos were awful after coming off the bye.  Then they looked likely to win last week, but stopped as if shot in the final term.  They seemed to be curtailed by injuries late in the game.

 

The Giants by 9 points, but not extremely keen on the game

Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 9 points and they won by 15. Analysis was very good in this instance; the injuries during the game balanced themselves out (which is good news for the Suns – they normally get 4 injuries to the opposition’s zero); Gazza was back to his best, but was almost matched by Devon Smith.

 

 

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4 COLL      vs.      WCE           Docklands   Sat, 18 July 4:35 pm

The Eagles – without much confidence
Collingwood fans would have marked this game as a win before the season began.  But the Eagles have surprised almost everyone with their form. 

Now – with the Eagles injury quotient being a mere 10 compared to 23 for the pies – the Eagles find themselves as deserved favourites.

 

The fact that this game is at the Docklands is probably a help for the Eagles.  Sam Butler was expected back, but is still out, but all else looks good.

 

The Pies – similarly, expected Tyson Goldsack to return, but he did not.  And they lose Jamie Elliott plus Tom Broomhead to injury plus Taylor Adams to suspension.

 

While it is hard to put a value on the Eagles’ win last week over the Crows, their form prior has been excellent.  And they are unchanged – like a neglected baby.

 

Meanwhile, the Pies will be desperate to win after a series of close losses. They may be able to pull it off despite having more good players out.  But it will be difficult to overcome the West Coast’s strong midfield brigade.  The Pies’ home state advantage gives them a hope, however.

 

The Eagles by 3 points in a tricky game

Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 3 points and they won by 31; analysis was fair; the Pies were restricted when Cloke went off early with an injury; and then Jesse White didn’t fire a shot as his stand-in. The Eagles just keep on keeping on.  They have been underestimated almost all year and now are a game clear in second place.

 

 

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5 SYD         vs.      HAW     ANZ Stadium   Sat, 18 July 7:20 pm

Weather: chance of a shower; breezy

The Swans in an upset

Please refer to Penny’s summary of the game here: http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-15a16-2015-penny
The Hawks may be on an unstoppable run here.  The way that they dispensed with Freo last week suggests so.  But there are a few hurdles for the Hawks to get over. 

 

Firstly, as Penny notes, they are on the road for the second week in a row.  Then there is the small home state advantage that the Swans have.  Jarryd Roughead may be short of a gallop after his recent melanoma op.  He may be in some doubt to play.

 

The Swans have not been playing at the very best of late, but they now have their best and most settled team for some time.  Buddy and Kurt Tippett came back last week after suspensions – and Ted Richards returns from concussion.

 

Mike Pyke has been struggling recently and is out again with a knee injury.  How well Toby Nankervis goes – with help from Kurt Tippett – may decide the outcome of the game.

 

One thing against the Swans is the terrible record that teams have the week after playing Brisbane.  Only the Dogs and Eagles have won after playing the Lions.  The Crows had a cancelled game in R14 after playing Brisbane.

 

Swans by 2 points in an upset

Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 2 points but the Hawks won by 89; OUCH! The analysis was awful here.  The Swans looked clueless at time; their talls of Nankervis and Tippett were soundly beaten – with Tippett breaking a hand; it was expected that the Swans would be competitive – and the fact that the Hawks were on the road for 2 weeks in a row would make them vulnerable late in the game. The vulnerability doesn’t really come into it when you are 10+ goals up in 4Q.  Sorry!

 

 

 

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6 FREO      vs.      CARL         Subi  Sat, 18 July 5:40 pm

Weather: shower or two may have cleared by game time; breezy

The Dockers are certs
There is no doubt that the

Dockers are struggling a bit – much like the English bowlers on day 1 of the second test.  But they are doing well enough to easily dismiss a Carlton team missing lots of their best players.

 

Maybe the absolute shocker against the Hawks could snap Freo out of their slump.  It appears that Ross Lyon has done a “Brad Scott” and laid down the law to his charges.  Four players have been dropped (although Clancee Pearce may be carrying an injury) and they may come out much better this weekend.

 

But it is still too early to be certain that they may smash the Blues.  It is possible that they might be more concerned about the “W” than the percentage, but they should still win big.  Dockers are tipped by 56 points and certs of the week.

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 56 points and they won by 42; analysis was okay, but the margin was a bit less than expected.  Nonetheless, the call of “cert of the week” was correct.

 

 

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7 MELB      vs.      BRIS   MCG         Sun, 19 July 1:10 pm

Weather: dry; moderate breeze

The Dees – with a bit of confidence
Please refer to Penny’s summary of the game here: http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-15a16-2015-penny
The thing to note is that the Lions have got teams “at the right time” recently.  This time, they get no such luxury.  The Dees will be flat out to perform to the max on Sunday.  Unlike the Dockers and Swans in the past fortnight, the Dees are not easing in to a big R17 game.  For them, this is a “must win” to recover the momentum after an upset loss last weekend to Essendon.

 

Expect them to be able to hit something close to peak form against the Lions. The home ground advantage will be a big help.

 

The return of ex Melbourne player Stefan Martin will be a boost for Brisbane.  The match-up with Max Gawn will be of interest.

 

Dees by 19 points.

Post Match Review: Dees were tipped by 19 points and they won by 24; this was the best analysis for the week.  Many gave the Lions a huge chance, but the Dees were always likely to win – despite slowing down in 2H. Several players for both teams had terrible numbers at times; look for injuries coming out of this game.

 

 

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8 PORT      vs.      ADEL         ADEL Oval          Sun, 19 July 2:50 pm

Weather: dry; light winds

Port probably
There is some doubt on the fitness of Matthew Lobbe, but Peter Larkins reckons he will be okay. 

 

It is difficult to know how each team will perform – given the events of recent weeks.  The Crows may possibly outperform expectations after struggling first up after their unexpected week off.  This would normally be expected for a team underperforming the week after a bye. 

 

There is also a positive technical lead for Port.  They finally had a small win after struggling for some time.  If this technical lead proves true, then Port would establish a big lead in the first quarter and maintain it.

 

But this is not a normal situation; so the game will be labelled as EXTREME variance.

 

Port by 4 points, but anything could happen.  The winner may be the unity between all at the venue.

Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 4 points but the Crows won by 3; analysis was reasonably good, but the wrong team was selected; the EXTREME variance call was probably right.  The Crows had three sizeable leads and Port came back three times; the possible technical pattern for Port (big lead early) did not occur.

 

The Crows appeared to be better after the first up fade-out last week.

 

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9 STK         vs.      RICH          Docklands   Sun, 19 July 4:40 pm

The Tigers, but not certs
This is the “Maddy” match – with two Riewoldts named to play on Sunday.

 

There are a couple of concerns about Richmond this weekend.  Firstly, they lose Ty Vickery – and Ben Griffiths still isn’t back. But Ivan Marin makes a timely return.  The next thing to be wary about is that the Tigers had a cruisy game against Carlton last Friday night and then had the weekend off.  There is a chance that they may be half asleep on Sunday.

 

Nick Riewoldt is unlikely to play this weekend – or, if he plays, he won’t be at 100%.  He will probably put the team first – despite his keenness to honour his sister by playing.  Paddy McCartin looms as a likely replacement.

 

So long as Richmond is on song, they will win this one.  But it is the type of game that Richmond traditionally might drop as they look to sure up a finals berth.

 

Tigers by 19 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 19 points and they won by 16; analysis was very good in this instance.  The Tigers did appear to be “half asleep” in that they lost 1Q and then went 0:3 to 6:3 in 4Q; but they did enough to win.  The concerns about the Tigers’ intensity was reason enough NOT to call them certs.

Nick Riewoldt played and toughed it out quite well

 

 

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Best cert:  the Dockers (did it well), then the Roos (started slowly, but drew away)

 

Best Outsider:  plenty of likely upsets this weekend – with the Dogs (not quite!) and Swans (never a hope) being the most likely – with chances to the Crows (looked safe all the match) and Pies (looked a hope but fell away)

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  not a good week to be very confident, so just one this time – the Giants by over 5 points (got there after looking likely all day); the Swans to win or to lose by less than 7 points (gone in the first quarter); the Dees to win by over 12 points (more than 2 goals in front from early in the match);

 

 

Happy tipping!  This is a good week to make ground on the leaders! (but it didn’t help you to tip the 6 tips suggested above)