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Round 17, 2015

 

Round 17, 2015

SuperTipping results for R16: 6 winners for a total of 98 + 2 bonus pts = 100 and ranking dropped from 303 to 703 out of 46,826 tipsters (top 2% – still excellent)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 2 out of 2 (with the Roos and Dockers both winning comfortably).  Streak is now up to 13. Ranking imporved from 707 to 377 (surprising increase – maybe a few other tipsters were too aggressive in R16! – or maybe just passing a few streaks which have bombed out) and in top 2% (excellent).

50/50 tips: 2 out of 3 for the week (with the Giants and Dees winning by enough, but the Swans were the big loser) and 17 out of 44 for the year = a result of a very poor but improving 38% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.  There are now only 70 tipsters left in the Gauntlet

Down the gurgler in R12 in the Pick 5 – along with most others. There are now  214 tipsters remain in the Pick 5

From now on, those still in the Gauntlet comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear. 

Early thoughts for R17: the certs appear to be the Hawks and Roos; others to be tipped at this early stage would be the Giants, Crows, Port and Eagles.  The other three game are tough to pick, but early thoughts would be Tigers, Dogs and Dees

Round 17, 2015

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 CARL HAW Docklands HAW 43 HIGH No hope
2 GWS GEEL Canberra GWS 5 HIGH A definite chance
3 ADEL GCS ADEL ADEL 27 EXTREME A tiny chance
4 RICH FREO MCG RICH 19 HIGH Some chance
5 ESS PORT Docklands PORT 18 EXTREME A tiny chance
6 BRIS NMFC Gabba NMFC 14 HIGH Some chance
7 WBD COLL Docklands WBD 6 HIGH Tipped to win
8 MELB STK MCG STK 4 EXTREME No outsider in this game
9 WCE SYD Subi WCE 19 HIGH A tiny chance

 

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

 

 


1 CARL      vs.      HAW           Docklands   Fri, 24 July 7:50 pm
The Hawks are the certs of the week

There is still no Andrew Walker back for Carlton, but Andrew McKay was confident Troy Menzel will play despite being subbed off with a corkie.

The Hawks appear to be taking a conservative approach – with James Frawley coming back in the VFL and Jonathan O’Rourke being given a run for experience. It’s no cause for panic, but it’s the biggest injury list the Hawks have had for a while.  The Blues’ injury quotient, however, is much more severe at this stage of the season.

Despite tipping the Hawks as certs of the week (there aren’t many other options to pick), it is possible that they may be a bit off their magnificent form of the past 2 weeks. The play the Blues after big games against the Dockers and Swans – and then prior to another big game versus Richmond. 

The intensity levels will be down for the Hawks, but they should still be good enough to win well.  Maybe less than the 11 goals the experts are tipping.

 

Hawks by 43 points and certs of the week.
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 43 points and they won by 138; analysis was 95 points off, so not that great.  The one positive was that the Hawks were tipped as certs of the week.  this became evident very early in the piece.  It was thought that the Hawks may struggle for motivation in terms of “going in for the kill”. This didn’t seem to be a problem.

As for the Blues, they were okay for about 10 minutes and then proceeded to put in one of the worst displays in their history.  Perhaps the 6 day break back from Perth combined with their inexperienced list caused this absolute shocker of a performance.

 

 

2 GWS        vs.      GEEL         StarTrack Oval (Canberra)          Sat, 25 July 1:45 pm
The Giants in a tough one to pick
Weather: cold, showers should be gone by game day; windy

This is a critical game for both sides.

The Cats had 2 weeks off in a row and then were ordinary against the Roos (who, themselves, were ordinary first up from a bye and then were very good against the Cats).  Then they were much better last weekend against the Dogs.

But the Dogs didn’t have much in the way of ruck stocks.  And, while the Giants don’t have Mummy, the combo of Rory Lobb and Tom Downie are doing okay lately.  They may give the Giants the edge in the midfield and the clearances.

Cory Gregson is expected to be okay to play for the Cats.

The Giants are on the road for the second week in a row (QLD last week and now Canberra).  This is listed as a small negative.

The Giants by 5 points
Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 5 points but the Cats won by 27; analysis was just average.  Of course, the wrong team was picked.  It was noted that the Giants were on the road for the second week running; they were very poor early.  The other thing that helped the Cats was that they weren’t smashed around the ball; Mark Blicavs did okay virtually alone against Tom Downie and Rory Lobb.  The Cats won the clearances narrowly.  Next was that Joel Selwood (back from suspension) and Tom Hawkins really excelled. The absence of Buntine hurt in regard to the Hawkins dominance.

 But it was the start where the Giants lost it

 

3 ADEL      vs.      GCS           ADEL Oval          Sat, 25 July 1:40 pm
The Crows are almost certs
Weather: showers increasing; windy
The Suns have never beaten Adelaide; the closest they got was 28 points up north in 2013.  But they must give themselves a chance after Mark Ricciuto had doubts about the Crows being able to get up after the emotional Showdown last Sunday.

Maybe Ricciuto’s comments are made to help the Crows get up.  The nicely graying coach Scott Camporeale reckons the team will be okay.  Rory Sloane has been named and fitness won’t be a problem – it’s just ensuring that the bone is healed enough.

As a rule, the Crows play okay after showdowns.  But this one of the better Suns’ sides for the year – with Gazza and Harley Bennell playing together for the first time since R2.  Despite this, they still lose Tom Nicholls and Mitch Hallahan to injury and Jarrod Harbrow (temporarily) to fatherhood.

Daniel Talia may need a concussion test and Kyle Cheney is still not back into the team.

The Crows more stable team will be a help.  There is a temptation to pick them as certs, but the lingering doubt about how they will come up will prevent this call from being made.  And the variance will be labelled EXTREME.

The Crows by 27 points and almost (but not) certs
Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 27  points and they won by 45; analysis was okay; Talia pulled out, but Sam Shaw was fair as a replacement. The one query on the Crows was whether they would be “up” for the day.  Once they were okay in this regard – and Gazza got injured in 1Q – the Crows were total certs.

 

 

 

 

4 RICH       vs.      FREO         MCG Sat, 25 July 4:35 pm
The Tigers should do it

Weather: shower or two; windy; cold

 

These teams played in Perth in round 10 when Richmond won after kicking 8 goals to 3 in 1Q.  It was assumed, at the time, that the Dockers were in a very brief slump. But they haven’t hit form since then – despite some wins against lowly teams and a battling 1 kick win over Collingwood in Perth.


The Dockers are flying 25 players (22 + all emergencies, one assumes) to tackle the Tigers – then fly back those needed to play for Peel on Sunday. The AFL website reported that Nathan Fyfe trained only lightly on Thursday this week – and the same applied to Lee Spurr.  This is significant given that Fyfe is the Brownlow favourite and Spurr scored 127 SC points last week.  There may either be a late change by the Dockers or Fyfe playing a little below 100%. Hopefully, Ross Lyon will let us all know in plenty of time.

 

Richmond has included Ben Griffiths to join Shaun Hampson and Ivan Maric (to combat Aaron Sandilands?). Given the likelihood of a wet day, expect a late change – with Matt Thomas looking more like a ground level player that they may need.

 

The concern about the Tigers is the Maddy game slow down in 4Q.  They were outscored by the Saints 6 goals to zip in that time.  But, as a rule, top 8 teams who slow down against a lower ranked team at this time of year usually excel the following week.

 

Given the awful 1Q by Froe last time they played, expect the Dockers to be really switched on in 1Q, but for the Tigers to draw away in the middle part of the game.

 

The experts seem to be assessing this game based on ladder positions more than on recent form.

 

The Tigers are capable of disappointing at times, so they won’t be tipped with huge confidence. 

 

Richmond by 19 points, but not certs
Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 19 points but the Dockers won by 4 ; analysis was better than it looked; here is a little secret for all who tipped the Dockers – you were lucky (or, you lucked out, as the Yanks would say); the Dockers got the rub of the green with the umpires, then the Tigers proceeded to miss easy shots in 4Q and, finally, a bad error when kicking in with a minute to go cost the Tigers the game; if you play this game 10 times, the Dockers would only win it once; but they were persistent enough to hang around and not be blown away;  the other ting to note was 134. That’s the SC score of Nathan Fyfe – wh0 was in doubt during the week (Lee Spurr also did only lightly training the same day as Fyfe and he DID struggle – 33 SC points); those of us who tipped the Tigers will claim the moral victory, but no choccies.  Of interest is that Richmond started favourites but the majority of people (66%) tipped Freo in the AFL tipping

 

 

 

5 ESS                   vs.      PORT         Docklands   Sat, 25 July 7:20 pm
Port – without great confidence

The Bombers might have got Port at a good time.  But it is hard to say.  Good, maybe, because Port could be on a downer after narrowly losing the Showdown.  But bad, perhaps, because Port has now been officially written off as far as finals are concerned.  Teams that have been written off about this time of year often exceed expectations by heaps the following week.

 

Chappy was expected to return and, maybe, Jake Melksham + Adam Cooney.  But none have been named.  This makes their injury quotient a very high 27.  This is too high to give them much of a chance.

 

So, in summary, the Bombers can win, but they will need to rely on Port being on a downer.

 

This is an EXTREME variance game. If Port get a decent break, they may go right on with the job.

 

Port by 18 points, but not certs
Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 18 points and they won by 13; analysis was pretty good in this case – more so for the EXTREME variance call than the result.  The losers thrice kicked 3 unanswered goals – twice to establish good leads and another time to almost regain the lead; it appears that Port was a bit flat early after the “special” Showdown.

Nonetheless, the result probably shows that Port are still a fair way off their best; and that the Bombers will struggle late in 2015.  The wrong part of the analysis was that Port “got a decent break” once or twice but were not able to really finish the Bombers off.

Just clarifying – Cooney played VFL and was in the best; Chappy also played VFL and Melksham didn’t play anywhere

 

6 BRIS        vs.      NMFC         Gabba         Sat, 25 July 7:20 pm
The Roos, but not certs

Weather: early showers clearing; wind abating; humidity likely to be very high later in the game

The Roos haven’t won at the Gabba since 2005.  Since then they are zip and 6 against the Lions; they have also lost the past 2 against the Suns in QLD.  With the possibility of a humidity problem for the Roos, this looms as a possible danger game (despite being labelled as certs in the early ratings above).  However, if the Roos can overcome this obstacle in Brent Harvey’s 400th game, then they may possibly win big.  As such, this will be labelled an EXTREME variance game.

 

There are some doubts Pearce Hanley and Dayne Beams for the Lions – so watch for any late changes if you can.

 

The Roos by 14 points but not certs
Post Match Review:  were tipped by  points and they won by ; analysis was so-so.  With Beams and Hanley both coming out, the task was made extremely difficult for Brisbane.  The Roos made a big thing, during their preparation, of NOT having won up in Brisbane for a decade.  That may explain why they really finished the game off strongly; Leppa said that the Brisbane boys dropped their heads in the last bit of 4Q.   With Beams and Hanley going out, the Lions needed more from Tom Rockliff (only 50 SC).

a surprising element was that the humidity really soared into the 90 range in the second half, but even this didn’t help the Lions.  The result also shows that the Roos are peaking nicely for likely September action

 

 

7 WBD        vs.      COLL         Docklands   Sun, 26 July 1:10 pm 
The Dogs in an upset
Refer to Penny’s analysis of this game here:
http://longggey.com/round-17-2015-penny/

The Dogs would see Collingwood as vulnerable in this game. Vulnerable because the Pies have lost 4 in a row, but also due to their large injury quotient of 26. And when they did have a win, it was against a Giants team that had 4 injuries on the day.

 

But the Dogs’ mids need to be more competitive than last week.  And they still don’t have big Will Minson.  Jordan Roughead did some rucking a few weeks ago, but didn’t do any rucking last weekend when just back from a back injury.  Maybe he could help out Toms Campbell and Boyd this week (with a run under his belt last week).  The Pies would probably need to win well in the ruck to win this game.  Despite maybe having the edge with superior quality midfielders, their forward line looks threadbare without Jamie Elliott and Travis Cloke (who has done well against the Dogs in recent times.

 

The Dogs by 6 points
Post Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 6 points and they won by 18; analysis was the best of any of the game for the week.  Firstly, an outsider was correctly tipped; also, the fact that the Pies had come off a 4 week run of losses against top quality opposition meant that they were always likely to be flat.

The late withdrawals were 1 each – Collingwood got the best of this deal with Darcy Moore booting five. Levi Greenwood was just average and is probably still short of a gallop.  Pie fans should get excited about Darcy Moore; the future with him is looking bright!

 

 

8 MELB      vs.      STK            MCG Sun, 26 July 3:20 pm
The Saints, but don’t like the game

Weather: shower or two; cold; windy

 

The last time these teams played, the Saints won in the last few seconds via a Leigh Montagna goal.


This is the hardest game to select.  How will the Saints come up after the Maddy game.  And what do we make of the 6 goals to none 4Q last week.  Was it a case of goals in junk time? Or a sign that they are about to hit top form.  This analysis slightly favours the latter explanation – without great confidence.

 

The Saints are slightly more higher rated, but the Dees are likely to be better this week – with some experienced players coming in from the VFL and Paul Roos indicating that it was time to rest some of their young players. Billy Stretch, Alex Neal-Bullen and James Harmes are all named on the 7 man IC bench.

 

The Dees slowed down in 2H last week and they have a few players who scarcely contributed late in the game.

 

This is a game to avoid (if that were possible) and it is an EXTREME variance game.  The Saints by 4 points
Post Match Review:  Saints were tipped by 4 points and they won by 37; analysis was fair – about as good as most others.  Many had trouble tipping a winner here because the form of both teams was comparable.  The concern here was how well the Saints would come off the Maddy match – and whether to believe their last term against Richmond.  The Saints actually controlled the game throughout.  Their only down patch was when Billy Longer was off with a bleeding nose in 3Q. 

It was mentioned in the preview above that the Dees slowed down in 2H last week.  It appears that some of these players also struggled on Sunday – namely Colin Garland and Billy Stretch. Paul Roos also mentioned that his team butchered the ball.  The call of EXTREME variance almost proved correct.  If the margin is 6 goals plus outside the generally expected margin (or the scoring patterns are bizarre), then the game is an EXTREME variance game.   This one was right on the cusp.

The other factor that helped the Saints was that Nick Riewoldt (who was doubtful with a calf injury) did extremely well with 135 SC points. The Saints would’ve been tipped with a bit more confidence had it been known that Riewoldt was going to get through the game as well as he did

 

 

 

9 WCE        vs.      SYD            Subi  Sun, 26 July 2:40 pm
The Eagles, but not total certs

Weather:
Based on last week’s results, the Eagles would be certs. But the Swans will surely play better than against the Hawks.  They also get back Mike Pyke, Jeremy Laidler and, maybe Isaac Heeney as well (to replace 3 forced outs).

 

And they generally do quite well against the Eagles in Perth – having won the past 5 such encounters.

 

Also, the Eagles lose Jeremy McGovern for several weeks.  This gives the Swans some help.  But it is impossible to tip against the Eagles in this game.  Their form is just too good.

 

The Swans were actually right back in the game late in 2Q last week (3 goals down) but then the Hawks kicked 2 late goals plus the first one after half time within a minute.  Then the Swans dropped their bundle.  It is hard to know how to assess the form of Sydney from that game.  But their form hasn’t been that great since the bye – and they cannot seem to keep a settled line-up.

 

Eagles by 19 points, but not certs
Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 19 points and they won by 52; analysis was okay.  Three things changed the game in terms of the margin.  Firstly, Buddy was a late withdrawal; next – the Swans were 0:6 to 6:0 early in 2Q after having similar numbers in terms of control of the ball.  Lastly, Mike Pyke’s knee is a concern and he was subbed off at 3QT after having little impact on the game.  That pretty much sums up how the Eagles won so well. 

 

 

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Best cert:  the Hawks and that is it (safe at QT)

 

Best Outsider: the Dogs are the best outsider (always looked likely to win), with lots of other chances; the Lions have a fluky chance (absolute shocker)

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  the Blues to win or to lose by less than 64 points (never a hope); the Tigers to win by more than 6 points (looked certain to do this but self-destructed);  the Dogs to win or to lose by less than 2 points (always looked likely to win)

 

Happy tipping!  This is a week where you should expect some upsets. (yes, but no big upsets – Cats and Dogs both won – but were only slight outsiders)

 

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Post Match Review:

Post Match Review:  were tipped by  points and they won by

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