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Round 18, 2015

Round 18, 2015

SuperTipping results for R17: 7 winners for a total of 105 + 2 bonus pts = 107 and ranking dropped from 703 to 944 out of 46,860 tipsters (top 2% – still excellent)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 1 out of 1 (okay, it wasn’t all that hard to tip the Hawks as certs!).  Streak is now up to 14. Ranking dropped from 377 to 474 (with a few tipping the other likely certs of the round – Roos, Crows, Port, Eagles) and in top 3% (excellent).

50/50 tips: sadly, 1 out of 3 for the week (with the Blues not firing a shot, the Tigers looking likely to win by over a goal and then self-destructing; then the Dogs winning well to save the day somewhat) and 18 out of 47 for the year = a result of a very poor 38% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.  There are now only 56 tipsters left in the Gauntlet

Down the gurgler in R12 in the Pick 5 – along with most others. There are now  211 tipsters remain in the Pick 5

From now on, those still in the Gauntlet comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://longggey.com/gauntlet-2015/
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear. 

Early thoughts for R18: the certs appear to be the Dockers and Cats; quite keen on the Pies, Roos, Eagles, Port and Dogs; potential upset winners are Tigers and Crows; but it is early in the week and tips could change significantly by Thursday night

Round 18, 2015

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 HAW RICH MCG HAW 25 EXTREME A slim hope
2 GEEL BRIS Geelong GEEL 39 HIGH No hope at all
3 COLL MELB MCG COLL 26 EXTREME A slim hope
4 SYD ADEL SCG SYD 9 EXTREME A definite chance
5 CARL NMFC Docklands NMFC 29 HIGH No hope at all
6 GCS WCE Gold Coast WCE 21 HIGH A slim hope
7 PORT STK ADEL PORT 23 HIGH A slim hope
8 ESS WBD Docklands WBD 12 HIGH A slim hope
9 FREO GWS Subi FREO 47 HIGH No hope at all

 

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

 

 

 


1        HAW  vs.    RICH          MCG Fri, 31 July 7:50 pm      

The Hawks, but not total certs

Weather: rain all gone by game time, but a bit damp under foot perhaps; moderate breeze

The Hawks look like they are on an unstoppable roll at the moment. Since thye narrowly beat the Pies, they have dispensed their last two premiership opponents by more than 10 goals and then demolished the Blues last Friday night. 

 

So why wouldn’t they beat the Tigers – who threw away the win last weekend?  Well, they might!  In fact, the last three meetings between these teams have resulted in 10 goal + margins.  In 2012 and 2013, the Tigers scored huge upset wins, while the Hawks got their revenge last year.  In the 2013 game, the Hawks had beaten the Bombers on a Friday night the week prior by 56 points – a similar pattern to this time.  If the Tigers are to win, they may do so by virtue of getting off to a flier.

 

Those wins by Richmond should mean that they won’t be overawed – as the Blues may have been last weekend. And the Tigers have a good record at bouncing back from ordinary performances – not that last week was ordinary in the normal sense of the word – it was just a win that was thrown away.

 

The Hawks come off 6 and 7 day breaks compared to Richmond 6 and 6.

With reasons to tip an upset win – or another Hawk big win – the variance will be labelled as EXTREME.

 

Hawks by 25 points but not certs
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 25 points but the Tigers won by 18; analysis was mixed; of course, the wrong team was tipped; and the “bounce back” factor of Richmond (the best bounce back team in the league); “We fed off the hurt” said a Tiger player immediately after the game; the other thing which may have impacted on the game was the soft effort last weekend by Carlton against Hawthorn; it wasn’t exactly the ideal preparation for the sort of pressure coming a week later from the Tigers.

But there was a lot of good in the analysis; the main thing was that a HUGE number of tipsters would have tipped the Hawks as absolute certs; those who followed the above advice would have avoided that error; that advice was especially important to those who are one a decent winning streak.

 

 

2        GEEL         vs.      BRIS Simonds Stadium Sat, 1 August 1:45 pm      

The Cats should win this one

Weather: chance of a shower; windy

The Lions were awful last week (had hoped to be awesome!) when they were demolished by the Roos.  In that game, Pearce Hanley and Dayne Beams were late withdrawals.  Both are back in this weekend, but there may be some small doubt on both being right.  Beams – in particular – is expected to be playing with a shoulder problem.  Keep an eye out for any late changes.

 

The Cats still don’t have a real ruckman – doing well with Mark Blicavs going it alone; Dawson Simpson is an emergency – but is there because of height alone – not good VFL form.  The Cats have managed to slow down opponents Dogs and Giants in recent weeks to get wins.

 

It is hard to make a case for the Lions winning – but the experts already know this – having the Cats as hot favourites. They look to be right.

 

The Cats by 39 points and certs

Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 39 points and they won by 56 points; analysis was reasonably good; the problem for Brisbane was that they lost Matthew Leuenberger early – thus taking away their big advantage in the game; Pearce Hanley and Dayne Beams came and were both serviceable – but needed to be excellent to give the Lions any chance; the Cats were honest and did the job; no need to dwell too much on the game; the Cats were correctly labelled as certs

 

 

 

 

 

  by  points.

3        COLL         vs.      MELB         MCG Sat, 1 August 2:10 pm      

The Pies – but not total certs

Weather: chance of a shower; windy

The Magpies would have pencilled this in as a win a month or so ago; but now they have lost 5 in a row and the Dees would see this as a big chance to get a rare win over Collingwood.

 

But the Dees are going worse than their opponents and may be showing struggling to get through winter

 

Here are the 2 cases for each team to win:  the Dees will be really up for this game as they have copped some real beltings from the Pies; and, although Melbourne is struggling themselves, they do catch Collingwood without Cloke and White has been dropped;  new boy Darcy Moore got a late knock last week and may not be able to repeat his debut heroics.

 

The Pies played against 4 x top teams and lost all 4 and then were not able to get up against the Dogs.  But the Dogs got Collingwood at the right time (after those big 4 games) and now the Pies will be able to bounce back – maybe big time.

 

Which is correct?  It is not certain; so it will be called an EXTREME variance game

Collingwood by 26 points but not certs

Post Match Review: Pies were tipped by 26 points but the Dees won by 37; analysis was miles off, but there was one positive – the Pies weren’t tipped as certs; it appears that the youngsters for the Pies hit the wall at about the same time.  Darcy Moore wasn’t able to reproduce his debut heroics; all the tipsters’ eyes lit up when Jamie Elliott was named on Thursday; but he came on as sub (apparently short of a gallop) and contributed little in the quarter and a bit he played; to top things off for Pie fans, Jack Watts played well; the “case for the Dees” wasn’t given enough weight, so apologies for that; a pat on the back for warning that the Pies were not certs (many tipsters thought that they only had to show up to win)

 

 

4        SYD  vs.      ADEL         SCG  Sat, 1 August 4:35 pm   

The Swans are tipped without huge confidence

Weather: dry and breezy

The Swans look much better on paper than last weekend – with Buddy, Kurt Tippett, Ted Richards and Ben McGlynn all back.  But they lose Mike Pyke to injury and Adam Goodes for personal reasons.  The only “in” guaranteed to be 100% is Richards.  There are some doubts on Franklin and Tippett, while McGlynn has played 2 NEAFL games back from injury without starring – and he only played a half in his most recent game.

 

The Crows have done well since the sad demise of their coach – bar for the first up trip to Perth against the Eagles. It is unknown exactly how long their current good form will last.  Maybe they will have a downer some time.  But this is a big chance to “catch the Swans at the right time”.

 

The big doubts on the Swans “ins” – together with concerns about the ups and downs of the Crows – will make this yet another EXTREME variance game.

 

The Swans by 9 points but not certs

Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 9 points and they won by 52 points; analysis was a fair way off, but you were warned via EXTREME variance; the issue here was how well the Crows were going to do after the emotional Showdown, then the rev up from Mark Ricciuto; then the third week.  It looks like they were very flay early; conversely, the Swans were red hot on the back of a poor run of form; both teams had injury / “not 100%” problems during he game, so the Swans being UP and the Crows DOWN probably explains it; bit it wasn’t that easy to work this out prior to the match.

 

  by  points.

5        CARL         vs.      NMFC         Docklands   Sat, 1 August 7:20 pm      

The Roos are certs

The Blues produced a FNS – Friday Night Shocker – last weekend. It was their worst ever loss in their VFL / AFL history.  As a proud club, they would be expected to “show something” this week. In their other recent huge losses, they have been reasonably good the following week.  But lowly teams who produce a FNS tend to underperform the following week late in the season.

The Roos were determined to FINALLY win at the Gabba last week after a 10 year drought; they did so in style for Boomer’s 400th.

The Blues’ team looks a little better this week; but not good enough to trouble the Roos.

The Roos are certs, but they may not win by as huge a margin as some expect.  The Roos by 29 points and certs.

 

Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 29 points and they won by 64; analysis was, again, a way off the mark.  It was expected that the Blues would find something; but the uncertainty was how much and for how long. As it turned out, it was only for 2Q.  But the Roos were correctly tipped as certs.  The red writing above was added after the round was over; it is not true to say that lowly teams generally underperform after a FNS; the trend to underperform after a FNS is true for late season only.

 

 

6        GCS  vs.      WCE Metricon Stadium          Sat, 1 August 7:20 pm      

The Eagles to keep their winning run going

Weather: dry; light winds; low humidity

Things have gone beautifully for the WCE in recent weeks.  They may have caught their opponents at the right time:  the Crows after their week off; the Pies who had injuries and then the Swans without Buddy and other injury problems.  But they keep winning well.  So when Gazza goes out, you would expect the Eagles to win easily.

 

They may, but this is a small danger game.

 

The Suns lose Michael Risk-a-telly as well as the Little Master; but their ins = Adam Saad, Jarrod Harbrow, Jack Martin & Tom Nicholls look talented.

 

The Eagles are flying Will Schofield to QLD, but he will be tested when he gets there.

 

If the humidity were to significantly exceed the forecast, this would help the Suns.  But, even if not, they still are a small chance to cause a big upset.  The Eagles are too heavily favoured in this game.

 

The Eagles by 21 points but not certs

Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 21 points and the result was a draw; analysis was better than most – because the Eagles  were tipped by almost everyone as absolute certs (6 – 8 goals were being mentioned); the humidity was pretty high; and the numbers all show that the Eagles probably should have won; nonetheless, it was very satisfying to have tipped them by much less than most tipsters; those who tipped the Eagles as certs will probably be okay in most “certs” comps

 

 

7        PORT         vs.      STK  ADEL Oval          Sun, 2 August 12:40 pm local time       

Port, but not certs

Weather: possible shower; moderate breeze

These teams both had wins against suspect opposition last weekend.  The form lines of both Essendon and Melbourne are not to be trusted. The Dons have a big injury list – while the Dees really know how to put in a poor effort at times. 

The Power are now being treated as total certs after Nick Riewoldt, Sam Gilbert and Jack Lonie were all listed as outs.  When you add the home ground advantage, it appears to be a comfortable win for Port. Jasper Pittard is considered an 80/20 chance by his coach.

But they still haven’t done enough to convince me that they are back in form. They will definitely be tipped, but with EXTREME variance and the Saints given a tiny chance.

Port by 23 points but not certs

Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 23 points and they won by 63; analysis was okay in this case; each team’s previous game was VERY hard to assess; the inside 50s were almost even but, in the absence of Riewoldt, Paddy McCartin and Josh Bruce performed poorly. To add to the Saints’ woes, Longer was concussed early; his replacement, Tim Membrey, didn’t get much of the ball; and other inclusion Daniel McKenzie produced low numbers. And it appears that Port are – to an extent – back.  Their loss of Ollie Wines had less of an effect on the game than the loss of Longer for St Kilda – especially since sub Sam Colquhoun did much better than Membrey.  Sam Gray came in from the SANFL this week and scored 102 SC points

 

 

8        ESS   vs.      WBD           Docklands   Sun, 2 August 3:20 pm      

The Dogs – without total confidence

The Bombers showed a bit last weekend without winning.  Now they get back Jake Carlisle, Jake Melksham, Adam Cooney & Jonathan Giles comes in for Shaun McKernan.

 

Cooney was in form in the VFL last weekend, but Giles seems to have been given a game merely because McKernan is struggling. Carlisle may not be 100%, but he also could fire first up.

Their chances will depend on how well Giles combines with the on-ballers.  The Dogs don’t have will Minson in to combat Giles.

 

The Dogs probably caught the Pies at the right time last week – but their form overall is better than the Dons and their injury list is shorter.  Tom Boyd is back in without starring last week in the VFL.

 

Dogs by 12 points but not certs

Post Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 12 points and they won by 87; analysis was a long way off in terms of score, but the right team was tipped; to look for reasons why, check this out.
James Hird said: I didn’t see that coming. We had five or six players miss a lot of training through illness during the week, but that’s the only thing that meant guys were a little bit off.
Then Hird said that it wasn’t an excuse.  But the Bombers played EXACTLY like an influenza team.  You know what it is like when you have the flu; you get up and feel okay once you get going for the day; then about 10-11 am, you hit the wall totally.  The Bombers lost the quarters as follows: first quarter lost by 4 points; second quarter by 35; third by 31 and last by 17.  The flu team usually starts okay and then gets worse and worse and the day goes on.  The one surprise is that the Dons were a bit competitive in 4Q. And the only question to be answered is: what would a fit Bombers team been able to achieve?  The answer will never be known; the only Don reported as ill before the game was David Zaharakis; he underperformed – scoring 50 SC points; apologies for not spotting this before the game.  Other Bombers to produce REALLY low numbers were Kyle Langford (32), Jake Melksham (24) & Jackson Merrett (13)

 

 

 

9        FREO         vs.      GWS Subi  Sun, 2 August 2:40 pm local time   

The Dockers are certs of the week

Weather: dry; light winds

See Penny’s comment son this game here:

http://longggey.com/round-18-2015-penny/

 

The Dockers were lucky last weekend and they know it.  But they are an experienced team and know how to make use of a good break.  At least they were good enough to take a few “standing 8 counts” last week without getting knocked out.

 

With the Giants being on the road for the third week in a row – and Devon Smith (Knee), Zac Williams (Hamstring) + Nick Haynes (Groin) all out, they have little hope.

 

The Dockers have a huge list of 6 ins, but they are all on the 7 man extended bench.  So don’t expect too much disruption to the team – although Nat Fyfe is being rested.

 

Dockers by 47 points and the certs of the week

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 47 points and they won by 21; analysis was not that great; too much emphasis was put on the travel factor for GWS. The thing that WASN’T considered enough was that the Dockers won last week with a kick on the siren (virtually) – and teams who win like that can tend to underperform the following week.  Despite all this, the Dockers were okay to be labelled as certs – but not certs of the week.

 

 

  

 

Best cert:  the Dockers (struggled, but got the choccies) , the Roos (did it easily) and Cats (did it easily)

 

Best Outsider: the Crows are the best outsider, but others also have a chance (the Crows were never in the hunt; should have focussed on “others” more)

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  the Suns to win or to lose by less than 44 points (never in doubt); the Dockers to win by more than 29 points (looked a chance, but faded)  

 

Happy tipping!  This is a week where some upsets are possible – but not a good week to try to make ground on the leaders (but if you were brave enough to tip Richmond and / or Melbourne – well done)