Round 19, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R19, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 05 Aug 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: everything was looking good for the Dockers to draw away and win by 6 goals + – as I predicted; but they struggled late and let go a handy lead. Sorry about that, chief!

This week, we begin by looking at last week’s Colingwood versus Melbourne game.  The result was a real surprise to most.  Although I agreed with Longggey’s call that the Pies were not certs, the size of the loss and the way that they lost was a shock.

Here is my theory on it:  the Pies pencilled in (at the start of the year) the tough run games in R13-16 after the bye as games – followed by an “easy kill” in the Bulldogs.  But the Dogs have surprised everyone this year.  And so the 4 game tough streak became a 5 game one.

Then, when it was over, the Pies were plum tuckered out – and were ordinary against the Dees.  There were a couple of players underdone for Collingwood as well – it seems – and the Dees gleefully ran away with it. 

Following on from that – it is possible that the Pies may hit back hard this week against their old enemy Carlton. But I don’t like getting excited about teams on long losing runs. 

So I will go the “other way” and predict that the Dees will underperform this weekend.  Most expect the Roos to win this one by about 4 goals.  I am tipping the Roos as certs and to win by over 6 goals.  The Roos are on a 13 game winning streak against Melbourne.