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Round 19, 2015

Round 19, 2015

SuperTipping results for R18: 7 winners (6 plus the draw) for a total of 112 + 2 bonus pts = 114 and ranking improved from 944 to 936 out of 46,894 tipsters (top 2% – still excellent)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 3 out of 3 (with the Cats, Roos and Dockers all winning well).  Streak is now up to 17. Ranking improved from 474 to 192 (the secret was NOT tipping the Hawks and Pies as certs!) and in top 1% (elite).

50/50 tips: sadly, 1 out of 2 for the week (with the Suns having no trouble in keeping close to the Eagles, but then the dockers looking likely to win by over 29 points, but falling away in 4Q) and 19 out of 49 for the year = a result of a very poor 38% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.  There are now only 56 tipsters left in the Gauntlet

Down the gurgler in R12 in the Pick 5 – along with most others. There are now  211 tipsters remain in the Pick 5

From now on, those still in the Gauntlet comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear. 

Early thoughts for R19: this is a very tricky week – with doubts on many of the favourites.  Forced to make an early pick – the Roos as certs; other teams to be selected will be Collingwood, Dogs, Suns, Giants and Dockers; the Crows / Tigers games is tough to pick – along with Cats / Swans and Eagles  / Hawks

Round 19, 2015

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 ADEL RICH ADEL RICH 2 HIGH A big chance
2 COLL CARL MCG COLL 25 HIGH A tiny chance
3 WBD PORT Docklands WBD 11 EXTREME A definite chance
4 BRIS GCS Gabba GCS 14 EXTREME Some chance
5 GEEL SYD GEEL GEEL 8 HIGH Tipped to win
6 WCE HAW Subi HAW 1 HIGH A big chance
7 MELB NMFC MCG NMFC 41 HIGH No hope at all
8 GWS ESS Homebush GWS 23 EXTREME A tiny chance
9 STK FREO Docklands FREO 23 HIGH A tiny chance

 

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

 

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1        ADEL         vs.      RICH          ADEL Oval          Fri, 7 August 7:20 pm

The Tigers in a toss-up

Weather: small chance of showers which should have cleared by game time; light winds

The news is: NO MARTIN and NO GRIGG.  It’s true! Brodie Martin and Mitchell Grigg did well in the SANFL last weekend, but the Crows refused to pick them.  Radio common tators are relieved!  But, of course, the Richmond Martn and Grigg have both been named to play.

 

The Crows were very sluggish early last week against a Swans team desperate to return to the winners list.  Once they were seven goals down, the game was gone.  The Crows haven’t beaten a current top eight team – and this stat may weigh on them as much as inspire them.

 

Rory Sloane was just a bit down in his second game back from injury.  He will need to lift – especially as Richard Douglas is out.

 

One theory about the poor form last week was that they hit a downer after the emotional time they team has had.  This is possible; maybe they had a special emphasis on being UP after the Showdown.  Two weeks after the Showdown, Port was very good on the same weekend that the Crows were very poor. 

 

But can they then bounce back strongly this week?  The answer is a definite maybe. It is expected that they will be much better than last week – but possibly not good enough to warrant tipping them.

 

The Tigers finished off last year well and appearing to be doing similarly again this year.  There is some question mark about how they will come up after knocking over Hawthorn on a Friday night and then collecting all the plaudits all weekend.

 

Coach Hardwick told us that “our biggest hurdle is winning that first quarter…”

This may mean that 2Q will be critical.

 

Sam Lloyd was stiff to be dropped after booting one of the best pressure goals you would ever see late in the Hawthorn game.

 

The Tigers by 2 points in a game that should be avoided as a tipping proposition

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 2 points but the Crows won by 36; analysis was ordinary for two reasons; firstly, the Tigers ability to back up again after a big upset win was overrated & the Crows were marked too hardly for one bad game against Sydney (that was one reason); the next is the lack of a Friday update; once Brett Deledio was listed as doubtful (that is DOUBTFUL, not OUT), then the tip should have been changed to Adelaide; Richmond’s record without Deledio is dreadful;  SORRY!

 

 

2        COLL         vs.      CARL         MCG   Sat, 8 August 1:45 pm

The Pies should break their runs of losses

Weather: tiny chance of a shower; light winds

The golden rule of tipping certs is NOT to tip a team as a cert if they have a long losing run going.  Even if they are a middle of the road type team – like the Pies – their losing run encourages lower tier teams to snatch a rare win against them.  This was what Melbourne did last week.  So, even though it is tempting to tip the Pies as certs, a conservative approach will be taken. 

 

Having said that, if you really need to boost your run of certs and you are a thrill-seeker (or your run of certs has recently been wiped out) then go for this risky play.

The Pies ins are interesting.  Jarryd Blair and Jonathon Marsh were picked on good VFL form, while Ben Sinclair & Ben Reid are coming back from injuries.  Had Jesse White been in the team and firing, Reid would probably still be finding form in the VFL.  Note that Jordan De Goey has been rested.  Tyson Goldsack and Adam Oxley return visa the VFL.

 

Jamie Elliott may have been a bit underdone last week when he came on as the sub; he looks likely to be improved this time and ready for a full game.

 

Andrew Walker has played just 1 game back in the VFL from a knee injury, but was named in the best (but that wasn’t hard given their depleted list).  The bad news for the Blues is that Chris Yarran and Troy Menzel have both been dropped for “failing to work hard on the field” according to the Age.  All this as Menzel’s brother works like a Trojan to come back from his umpteenth knee op.

 

Will this disciplinary measure help the team?  Maybe it will.

 

Pies by 25 points and almost certs

Post Match Review: Pies were tipped by 25 points and they won by 18; analysis was reasonable; it is thought (after the fact) that this was a game the Pies would have won by 6 – 10 goals had they been on a winning run; but they struggled to land the effective killer blows due to the pressure caused by a long losing run; their “ins” of Reid and Jarryd Blair worked well (despite Reid missing a sitter early in the game); it is still felt that refusing to label the Pies as certs was the right call; but maybe they could’ve won by more had Taylor Adams stayed fit

 

 

 

 

3        WBD vs.      PORT         Docklands   Sat, 8 August 2:10 pm

The Dogs – maybe

These teams both played Essendon in Melbourne recently.  The Dogs won by 87 points compared to a 15 point win by Port.  This suggests that Port has no hope.  But the Bombers were very poor against the Bulldogs – and apparently

 

There is still no Will Minson and Jordan Roughead for the Dogs; Tom Boyd is an emergency.

 

Port now loses Ollie Wines for the year.  Despite losing him early last week, the Power really steamrolled the Saints late in the game.

 

The ease of the wins for both teams last weekend makes this a dodgy game in which to tip a winner.  So the variance will be listed as EXTREME.

 

Are Port really back?  The jury is out.  Can the Dogs maintain momentum?  Unsure.

 

The Dogs are playing at home – so they will be picked.  The Dogs by 11 points.

Post Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 11 points and they won by 64; analysis was fair; the GOOD part of it was that the variance was listed as EXTREME!; with the Dogs winning by 9 goals more than expected; the game qualifies as EXTREME variance; the other good news is that the correct team was selected; as it turned out, comparing the Dogs’ win over Essendon last weekend with the win by Port the previous week would have yielded a tip of Dogs by 72 points – quite close to the actual end margin; but this method of tipping has many flaws and many horror results – it just so happened to work this time;  one question was answered on the day – Port is NOT back in town!  And the Dogs are flying at present!

 

 

 

4        BRIS vs.      GCS  Gabba         Sat, 8 August 4:35 pm

The Suns are favoured

Weather: dry and a bit breezy

At first glance, the “outs” for Brisbane would tempt most to label the Suns as certs – especially after their meritorious draw last week against the Eagles.  And they have 2 games in a row in the Sunshine State. 

 

But Zac O’Brien has been promoted to avoid him getting leather poisoning in the

NEAFL. 

 

Billy Evans is a young rookie who is able to be promoted under AFL rules; he was not in the best in the NEAFL last week and this selection would appear to be all about giving him a taste of things

 

Ex Tiger Luke McGuane has had knee troubles this year but finally gets back after a few NEAFL games; he was in the best last week.

 

Trent McKenzie comes back after being listed as having to be tested on Thursday and Nick Malceski remains in the team after also passing a fitness test; but the coach said that several players were sore after the Eagles game.  Adam Saad may be the one most in doubt this weekend.

 

The sore Sun players provides one reason to be cautious about tipping them.  The other is the history of Q clashes. Whenever the suns have won the first game of the season, the Lions have hit back hard to win the second one; in particular, the Lions have been brilliant in 1Q in these comeback matches.  Here is the history

 

Round 7, 2011: Gold Coast 18.16 (124) d Brisbane 17.14 (116) at the Gabba

Round 21, 2011: Brisbane 18.15 (123) d Gold Coast 8.13 (61) at the Gabba

Round 4, 2012: Brisbane 17.9 (111) d Gold Coast 6.10 (46) at the Gabba

Round 17, 2012: Brisbane 8.11 (59) d Gold Coast 5.18 (48) at Metricon Stadium

Round 3, 2013: Brisbane 13.16 (94) d Gold Coast 13.14 (92) at Metricon Stadium

Round 15, 2013: Brisbane 17.14 (116) d Gold Coast 12.11 (83) at the Gabba

Round 3, 2014: Gold Coast 17.12 (114) d Brisbane 9.7 (61) at Metricon Stadium

Round 18, 2014: Brisbane 16.14 (110) d Gold Coast 8.8 (56) at the Gabba

Round 5, 2015: Gold Coast 18.10 (118) d Brisbane 7.12 (54) at Metricon Stadium

 

Jack Martin made a low key return to the Suns team last week.  He is a potential top-liner and his form will be followed with interest.

 

There are doubts on both teams – and both have sizeable injury lists.  This is an EXTREME variance game.

 

The Suns by 14 points but not certs

Post Match Review: Suns were tipped by 14 points and they won by 14; analysis was perfect in terms of margin, but there was a query about whether the variance should have been EXTREME; it didn’t play out like an EXTREME variance contest; maybe all the doubts evened themselves out! at least the correct team was selected

 

 

 

5        GEEL         vs.      SYD  Simonds Stadium Sat, 8 August 7:20 pm

The Cats in a tight one to pick

Weather: tiny chance of a shower; light winds

This game may lack flamboyance because both Stevie J and Buddy are missing.  But there will be brotherhood – with the teams running through a joint banner as Adam Goodes returns to play.

There may be some query on how well Goodes will perform in his return. But the key to the game will probably be how both teams’ second choice ruck options perform.

The Swans brought back Buddy, Kurt Tippett and Ben McGlynn last week – and there were doubts on them all. Buddy didn’t come up this week; Tippett played great last week – and his form will go a long way to deciding the game; McGlynn didn’t make it through the game and might be in some doubt.  His knee was iced up after coming off.

 

The Cats’ injury list is gradually reducing. Cory Gregson returns after being rested last weekend

 

The other thing to consider is – how does one rate the form of the Swans – two poor performances and then they really got hold of the Crows.  A mixture of the good and bad may be the answer.

 

The Cats by 8 points

Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 8 points and they won by 32; analysis was mixed; it was good to tip the winner; this goes without saying – like a dumb waiter (as the two Ronnies once said); however, the variance was predicted to be high but was EXTREME; why did the Swans throw away a handy half time lead?  John Longmire said that the Swans were smashed in the midfield; not one of the gun Swan mids scored overe 100SC points; even against the Hawks (when they were obliterated), Daniel Hannebery, John the 3rd Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh and Luke Parker all scored over 100; this weekend, only Leroy the Jet Jetta cracked the ton; the other minor issue was that McGlynn (as hinted above) was a late withdrawal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

6        WCE vs.      HAW           Subi  Sat, 8 August 5:40 pm

The Hawks in a tough one to pick

Weather: possible shower; light winds

These teams were expected to come into this game with scintillating form.  But the Hawks lost and then the Eagles threw the win away against the Suns.  The draw in a game where they were expected to win – will it be followed by a great performance?  Or will the Hawks swoop.

 

The Tigers showed how to beat the Hawks last weekend.  But they were helped by hawthorn players making unforced errors (but the pressure of the contest got to them, it seemed).  Maybe the soft win over the Blues the week prior did not help the Hawks.

 

They have to win this one in order to have a realistic chance of finishing top 2.  Otherwise, they are likely to come back to Perth in week 1 of the finals.

 

This is the game of the round and the biggest test for the Eagles.  Few expected them to play finals – let alone challenge for the flag. Jeremy McGovern comes back from a hammie.  He might still need to pass a fitness test; and there may be some risk with him.  If he is back to is best, the side looks stronger – with him and Sam Butler back.

 

This is a game to avoid – as a tipster – if you can.

 

Hawks by a point

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by a point and they won by 14; analysis was okay here; of course, once the Eagles lost NicNat and Callum Sinclair then the Hawks were always highly fancied; the Hawks themselves lost Brian Lake; both teams had injury concerns during the game; maybe the Eagles were slightly worse off after losing Jeremy McGovern later in the game; would have tipped the Hawks by about a goal after the late changes

 

 

 

7        MELB         vs.      NMFC         MCG Sun, 9 August 1:10 pm

The Roos are certs

Weather: tiny chance of showers and a bit breezy

Please refer to Penny’s comments on this game here:

http://longggey.com/round-19-2015-penny/

The Roos are on a 4 game winning streak with the Dees and Saints to come.  It is the sort of fixture that could cause complacency.  But the big win last weekend by the Dees has ensured that North will be on the ball for this game.

 

As per Penny’s analysis, the Dees may find it hard to repeat the form shown in their win last week.

 

Lachie Hansen has forced his way back in after recovering from injury and playing a couple of VFL games.

 

The Roos by 41 points and certs of the week

Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 41 points and they won by 35; analysis was pretty good here; it would have been even better had the Roos booted another late goal; of interest is that the Dees made a substantial run at the Roos from way down to get within a goal, then faded late; this was close to EXTREME variance;  what seemed to happen is that the Dees took a while to get into the game (as a result of an “false lead” form their big win over Collingwood last weekend); then they really fought it out well (with maybe the Roos thinking “how easy is this”); then, when the Roos withstood the challenge, the Dees thought: here we go again; and then they fell away – with North kicking 5 of the last 6

 

 

8        GWS vs.      ESS   Homebush  Sun, 9 August 3:20 pm

The Giants are favoured

Weather: dry; light winds

The Bombers bombed like the Australian top order last week.  Apparently, there were 5 – 6 players who were ill during the week leading up to the Dogs game. 

 

 

Chappy remains in the VFL despite being named in the best in his second game back from injury. Beating him to the punch is Heath Hocking who also has had 2 games back in the VFL – but without greatly impressing; maybe they picked him due to needing someone with his inside mid job description!  It’s a risk!

 

Then there is the leak to the media about the drugs issues this week.  How will this all affect them?  It is uncertain – but maybe negatively.

 

The Giants did well last weekend against Freo in their third consecutive week on the road.  But the Dockers probably should have won by more – having dominated the inside 50s 56 to 30.

 

The Giants have generally done quite well when they return home after playing away from home for several weeks in a row.

 

It should be enough to get the win; but they won’t be tipped as certs – because of the uncertainty about the Dons – and maybe the Giants could be taking it a bit easy.

 

The Giants by 23 points and almost certs

Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 23 points and they won by 32; analysis was pretty good here; the margin was reasonably close, but nothing to brag about – almost everyone tipped them in this range; the good bit was the EXTREME variance label; this was applied because of the large numbers of team changes for both sides and also the big doubts on the Dons (sorry for not mentioning this in the write-up, but it was listed in the table at the top)

 

 

 

 

9        STK  vs.      FREO         Docklands   Sun, 9 August 4:40 pm

The Dockers are almost certs

The Dockers may be on top with a 6 point break on the Eagles, but they hardly look like a top flag hope on recent form (bar for the win over Richmond – but they were very lucky to win that one).

 

They play a Saints team that was very ordinary last weekend.  The young, tall options up forward failed in the absence of Nick Riewoldt.  With Riewoldt returning, his helpers may do better.

 

Freo revels in playing at the Docklands and have a great winning strike rate at the ground.  This should be enough to get them over the line.

 

But can they find enough form to challenge for the flag?  Perhaps – but they need Michael Johnson back.

 

The Dockers by 23 points and almost certs

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 23 points and they won by 37; analysis was mixed; the end result was pleasing; surprisingly, the Saints were strongly fancied – for an 1 vs 13 game (even though the Dockers haven’t played like a “1” team too much in the winter); the experts ended up tipping a 13 point win to the Dockers; this was too little;  but the poor part of the analysis was that the game was listed as high variance (with the Dockers going from 62 points up at 3QT to win by only 37); in retrospect, maybe the Dockers could have been labelled as certs.

 

 

 

 

 

Best cert:  the Roos and that is it (kicked away late to win well)

 

Best Outsider: the Cats are the best outsider (they actually started favourites in the end, but won well nonetheless); then the Eagles (fought it out bravely after losing “soldiers”) and Crows have good chances (powered away in 2H)

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  the Roos to win by more than 27 points (didn’t look safe until very late in the game!)

 

Happy tipping!  This is a week with some very tough games to pick; get the winners of the Crows / Tigers; Cats/ Swans and Eagles / Hawks games and you have had a good week (but 2 out of 3 aint bad)