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Round 2, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R2, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 7 April 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: all that was done last week was to mention that the Hawks were unlikely to win the 2015 flag.  They were extremely impressive against the Cats – about as impressive as the Pies in R1, 2011 (after a huge GF win in 2010).  I am sticking to my guns.  There are two ways the reigning big GF winner can bomb out.  One is in the regular season; the other is late in the finals.  The Hawks are expected to do the latter.

This week we will take a look at teams that are well in the game around 3QT, but get steamrolled in the final quarter.  To qualify, a team has to look a likely winner (or a genuine chance) sometime late in the game, lose and be outscored horrible late.

Yes, we are talking about the poor old (or same old) Bombers this time.  They were 41 points up late in 3Q and lost by 12.

Recent history is not good for teams in this predicament (in rounds 1 & 2):
Syd 2014 (loss to GWS); upset loss to Coll R2 (Coll won 4Q by 17)

Car 2014 (loss to Port); acceptable loss R2 to Rich (Rich lost 4Q by 9 pts)

Port 2011 (loss to Coll after getting the deficit back to 15 pts in 3Q); upset loss R2 to WCE at home (WCE won 4Q by 6 pts)

Rich 2012 (loss to Carl); acceptable loss R2 to Coll (Coll lost 4Q by 20 pts after having it all wrapped up at 3QT)

Ess 2010 (loss to Geel); upset loss to Freo (Freo won 4Q by 35 pts)

WCE 2010 (loss to Bris): upset loss to Port (Port won 4Q by 16 pts)

In 4 of the 6 recent cases, the team that was swamped in R1 underperformed also in R2. In a way, it is a pity that the Bombers have Hawthorn in R2, because everyone expects the Hawks to win anyway.  They are 27 point favourites for the game.

There is a reason for the Bombers dropping off in R1.  It was their lack of genuine match practice in the pre-season.  In other years, other teams had different problems.  Regardless of the cause, the golden rule is: don’t tip these teams next week.  It is very tempting for the Hawthorn-hating Essendon fan (if such a person exists) to dream of an upset win over a potentially over-confident Hawk outfit.

 

Don’t do it!  This is one temptation you need to resist.  The most likely scenario is for the Hawks to pull away for a very easy win.  Give the Dons time to reach their peak form in a few weeks.