Navigation

Round 2, 2015

Round 2, 2015

SuperTipping results for R1: 6 winners and 11,577 of 41,663 tipsters (slightly above average)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 3 out of 3 (Richmond, Swans and Giants all winning – despite all 3 winners looking fragile at times) for a ranking of 1,198 and in top 13%

50/50 tips: 1 out of 2 for a result of 50% (anything above 50% is good) with the Swans not winning by enough and the Dogs winning (that’s all they needed to do)

The AFL have a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses)

Early thoughts for R2: The Suns would appear to be the certs of the week, along with Hawthorn; the Eagles, Tigers, Giants, Crows, Port and Roos are likely to be tipped. The Cats and Dockers is a toughy – with Geelong ever so slightly favoured for now

 

Round 2, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

WCE

CAR

SUBI

WCE

15

HIGH

Some hope

2

RICH

WB

MCG

RICH

23

HIGH

A tiny hope

3

GWS

MELB

CANB

GWS

20

EXTREME

Some hope

4

COLL

ADEL

ETIH

ADEL

15

HIGH

Some hope

5

GCS

STK

GLDC

GCS

66

HIGH

No hope

6

PORT

SYD

ADEL

PORT

15

EXTREME

Some hope

7

GEEL

FREO

GEEL

GEEL

3

HIGH

No clear favourite here

8

ESS

HAW

MCG

HAW

46

HIGH

No hope

9

NMFC

BRIS

ETIH

NMFC

53

HIGH

No hope

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

1        WCE vs CARL               Fri 10 Apr 2015    Subiaco 6:10PM WA time

Weather: rain clearing; moderate winds

The Eagles, but not total certs

Carlton legend and commentator Mark Maclure reckons Mick should go at the end of the year.  This uncertainty may not be good for the club – especially if they drop out of contention for the finals early on.

To compound matters, the Blues still don’t get Robbie Warnock back (with Matthew Kreuzer still a few weeks away).  Rookie Cameron Wood will have to do it, with a little help from inclusion Levi Casboult.  At least Chris Yarran’s R1 injury seems to have been minor.

It’s almost enough to convince anyone to avoid tipping the Blues this week.  But wait!! The Eagles lose Mitch Brown, Sam (I’ll get you) Butler and Scott Selwood to injury. Furthermore, X-man Xavier Ellis was expected back from injury this week, but wasn’t named (even as an emergency).

Another factor to slightly offset the home state advantage is that the Blues have an 8 day break vs the Eagles only 6.  It is enough to give the Blues some chance to win.

Eagles coach turned up the heat on Scott Lycett after an average R1 effort.  With Sinclair due back soon, it is likely that Lycett will go pretty well this week.  This is more bad news for the depleted Blue ruck division.  And then there is Nick Naitanui – who is gradually running into form.  This looks like a nice little coach’s barb to get the best out of a player and notch a win.

 

Eagles by 15 points, but not total certs.
Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 15 points and they won by 69. Analysis was
The Blues were virtually 1 player down due to the fact that Simon White went off early and sub Clem Smith only scored 8 SC points for the day.  Inclusion Jason Tutt only scored 28 and Troy Menzel 23.

The Blues seemed to be “up” for 1Q, while the Eagles were “up” for the last 3.  Rosa (3rd option midfield stopper behind Selwood and Hutchings) blanketed Judd after QT. Mick Malthouse mentioned that the hit-outs were 27 (CARL) -59 (WCE).

The ruck was always going to be the big risk for the Blues.  Maybe the worst thing about the analysis was failing to call this an EXTREME variance game (with the Eagles kicking 16 goals to 3 after QT after trailing by 2 goals).  But, at least, a win is a win.

.

.

.

2        RICH vs WB        Sat 11 Apr 2015   MCG 1:45PM

Weather: light winds, partly cloudy

The Tigers

This is a “danger vu” game for the Tigers.  They had just had a nice win over the Blues in R2, 2014, when they stumbled against the Dogs in R3.  This is a very similar pattern. It is expected that they will be reminded of the early 2014 meeting this week.  Expect them to be more “on the ball” this time.

David Astbury and Chris Knights were listed as possible inclusions this week.  They made it as far as the emergencies list.  This is a smart move re Astbury, who is probably one week away from being 100%.  The club wouldn’t want him to play this week and get a stinger (poor joke).  Potential Supercoach cash cow Kane Lambert comes into the team to replace the suspended Brett Deledio.

Things fell into place well for the Dogs last week against a depleted defence of the Eagles (even more so with the early injury to Mitch Brown).  It will be tougher for them this week.

Their best chance to win this one is for the Tigers to be slightly off the boil after a nine day break following a satisfying win.

Tigers by 23 points, but not total certs
Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 23 points but the Dogs won by 19 points.  Analysis was a fair way off.  Of interest is that the Blues played the Tigers on Thursday in R1, enjoyed a nice Easter break, and then the Blues underperformed by 56 points and then the Tigers the next day by 38 points. Both teams underperformed in R2, 2014 after playing each other R1. This is interesting.

Given the Thursday night stuff for early last year, the analysis was poor and the Dogs should’ve been labelled as genuine chances, not small chances.

.

.

.

3        GWS vs MELB    Sat 11 Apr 2015   Canberra    2:10PM

Weather: Light winds, partly cloudy

The Giants – probably

The Giants are travelling 2 weeks in a row – with an away home game at Canberra.

The travel factor eventually caught up with them last year when they were on the road more than Willie Nelson (5 weeks in a row in fact).  The travel weariness helped to set them up for back to back 100+ point losses.

They should be fresh enough at this early stage of the year to cope with the relatively easy Syd to Melb & Syd to Canb double.

This match is a little tricky to forecast with any certainty because of the following:
A. The Giants stopped last week and fell over the line – after appearing to be heading for a big win earlier in the game.  This could either indicate that they are capable of much better than their R1 effort – or that they are heading towards a loss (if so, it is likely that they may repeat last week’s scoring pattern, but get overrun late); and
B. The Dees were terrific last week; but can they keep it going: and did they merely catch the Suns off guard?

The Dees get back Chris Dawes and Bernie Vince.  This makes them look more potent.

This is a game full of interest as a spectacle, but it is one to avoid as a tipster.

Giants by 20 points, but not overly confident due to EXTREME variance
Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 20 points and they won by 45.  Analysis was pretty good here – mainly because the game was labelled an EXTREME variance game.  The Giants came from 27 points down to win by 45 = a 72 point turnaround.

Of interest is that Jeremy Howe did well in R1 off a limited preparation, but struggled in R2; Nathan Jones inexplicably had his worst game for ages; and Jeff Garlett was well held; Tyson was toweled up by Coniglio.  The Dees well and truly sputtered after half time.  Often, a lowly team has a big win in R1 and then disappoints the following week.

.

.

.

4        COLL vs ADEL Sat 11 Apr 2015     Etihad 4:35PM

The Crows to keep the momentum going

Both these teams outperformed expectation by a long way last weekend.  Which team can maintain top form in R2?

The Pies stopped late, but this was due, in part, to the humidity – which saps the energy of many a visiting team late in games.  So the win will be treated as about a 5 goal victory.

Last weekend, the Crows played in a similar vein to their first ever match vs Hawthorn in 1991.  The euphoria back then was amazing.  There was duncing in the streets (according to the locals).  But the gloss was taken off the win when they lost at home to the Blues the following week.

New Adelaide coach Phil Walsh has warned fans to not go the early Crow.  It is expected that they will be able to continue their form from R1 after an official from another club described the Crows pre-season as the best of all the AFL teams.

It now appears that the troubles of 2013/14 are behind them (having a fully fit Taylor Walker for R21 helps quite a bit!) and they are ready to make a statement.

The Pies lose Steele Sidebotton this week.  He starred in R1 and will be sorely missed.  Ben Reid and Jarrod Witts were listed as chances to return from injury this week.  They start in the VFL alongside Darcy Moore.

The Pies currently have the worst “availability of players” rating in the AFL (soon, it is hoped, to turn around if the 3 listed above can do well in the VFL).  It is enough to select the Crows with a modest amount of confidence.

But the Crows have a few injury concerns of their own – and still haven’t got back Matt Crouch and Scott Thompson.

Crows by 15 points – not certs, however
Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 15 points and they won by 27.  Analysis was pretty good in this game.  A pleasing thing for the Crows was that they were able to replicate their good form away from home and also back it up after a stunning R1 effort.

The Pies were not helped by YET ANOTHER INJURY – this time to Ben Sinclair.

.

.

.

5        GCS  vs STK Sat 11 Apr 2015          Metricon Stadium 7:20PM

Weather: possible shower; light breeze; moderate humidity

The suns are the certs of the week

The Suns will be savage this week after getting blown away by the Dees.  They will have no trouble in accounting for St Kilda at home – despite the Saints being brave in defeat last weekend.  Gary Ablett has been named (to the relief of several million Supercoach players) – but may not be 100% just yet.

They have just lost Jaeger O’Meara for the year – which is a blow.

The Giants probably should’ve blown the Saints away last week.  But, occasionally, when you give a lowly team an even break, it can come back to bite you.  The Giants escaped with the four points, but not after a scare.

The Saints will not find the Suns as accommodating this week.  Nick Riewoldt may require another fitness test before he plays.  And they lose Montagna to a knee injury.  Furthermore, Tom Hickey is still not back from injury

Suns by 66 points and certs of the week
Post Match Review: Suns were tipped by 66 points but the Saints won by 28.  Analysis was awful.  SORRY for tipping a cert that lost.

WWW (What Went Wrong?)

Well, Gazza struggled even more this week.  They had some other underdone blokes: Sean Lemmens (35 SC points only), Sam Day (31), Rory Thompson (31).

Then there was Josh (they still call me) Bruce who starred unexpectedly for the Saints.  Thomas Lynch was just average in his first game for the year (missed R1 due to suspension).  He also had some minor problems in the pre-season.

Looks like the “finalists” tag for the Suns will have to wait until 2016, but they should improve later in the year.

But this was a great win for the Saints away from home and with a long injury list.

.

.

.

6        PORT vs SYD  Sat 11 Apr 2015 Adelaide Oval   7:10PM SA time

Weather: Partly cloudy. Light winds

Port, without great confidence

The Swans played 1 really good quarter of footy last weekend – and it got them a win.

Refer to Penny Dredfell’s article here

http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-2-2015-penny

which explains what happens to teams that get steamrolled in the last bit of the game.  The flip side of this story is that the team which win these games tend to do well in R2.  This means that the Swans should be a good chance to win this week against Port.  But does this logic hold up – given the pre-season that Essendon had?  It is difficult to know for sure.

Another problem with this game is trying to ascertain how well the underdone Port players (Hamish Hartlett, Angus Monfries, Paddy Ryder, Jackson Trengove &

Chad Wingard) will come up in week 2.

Parker must be declared fit by club doctors before selection, according to Swans coach John Longmire. Look for news of this on Friday.

Jarrad McVeigh (calf) returns for the Swans after no NAB games.

Port fans expected to get Matthew Lobbe back from a “precautionary” late withdrawal last week; but, instead, Jarrad Redden comes in to play his first game for 679 days.  The success of Ryder / Redden will help determine the outcome of the match.

In the end, the home state advantage for Port will ensure that they are tipped, but the above problems will mean that the variance is EXTREME.  This is another game to avoid as a tipster.

Port by 15 points, but nowhere near certs.
Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 14 points but the Swans won by 48.  Analysis was a long way off.  Humble apologies in a tough week for tipsters.  What went wrong?  Maybe the Essendon thing (ie downplaying the Swans win in R1) affected the analysis.

Also, Port seemed to be a bit fumbly under the intense pressure of the Swans.  They made fundamental errors.

Two of Port’s underdone brigade (Chand Wingard and Hamish Hartlett) underperformed, while Jarrad McVeigh (Swans underdone bloke) did extremely well in his first game for the year (on the back of no NAB games).  And Travis Boak hasn’t been able to shake the tag for both R1 & R2.

Another big factor was the lack of influence Jarrad Redden had on the game. HE had 6 hit-outs.  His rucking abilities had been lauded by Ken Hinkley.  Hinkley may be right, but Redden didn’t fire first up.

There was one positive:  the match was labelled as an extreme variance match.  Given that the result was about 10 goals away from the expected result, the EXTREME variance call was justified.

.

.

.

7        GEEL vs FREO Sun 12 Apr 2015 Kardinia Park 1:10PM

Weather: light winds; partly cloudy

The Cats by a whisker

The Cats pulled a big surprise by suspending Steven Motlop for this match due to an off field indiscretion.  And they may also lose Jimmy Bartel.  He will have a concussion test on the weekend. But Andrew Mackie (the general & organiser in defence, according to Cameron Mooney) returns after being a late withdrawal in R1.

For the first time in a long while, Steve Johnson will not be tagged by Ryan Crowley (although Crowley may text him continually during the game).

The Cats were belted by the Hawks last weekend – prompting thoughts that they could miss the finals for the first time since 2006.  But there were some excuses (see write-up on Hawks game below) and so expect a better effort this weekend.

However, the Dockers get an extra day’s break – and come off an impressive win over Port in R1.  Port had some underdone players – and the late withdrawal of Matthew Lobbe (leaving an underdone Ryder to virtually go it alone in the ruck).  Freo won after trailing at every change.

The Dockers have done well at Geelong in recent years and would give themselves a big chance again. In fact, the omission of Motlop will probably see them start narrow favourites.

The Cats have a longer injury list, but the Dockers have more players on the field who may be still slightly underdone.

The Cats will be tipped on the basis that they have been marked too harshly for their awful game against Hawthorn.  But it is a tough one to tip.

Cats by 3 points
Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 3 points but the Dockers won by 44.  Analysis was a mile off.  OUCH!!  The Dockers ended up firm favourites after Jimmy Bartel was left out.  Then Jared Rivers was a late withdrawal.

The Cats were tipped on the basis that Dawson Simpson would at least be competitive.  He wasn’t – and was subbed off for the second time in 2015.  He also accidentally hit Steve Johnson on the head.  And Johnson struggled thereafter.  Then, with Mitch Brown failing to come up for game 2 in over a year, the Cats were down and out for the day.

Casualties which had little bearing on the game were Zac Clarke going off with a knee injury and Harry Taylor getting a knock to the head – both in 4Q when the game was done.

The Dockers were terrific on the day and Nat Fyfe looks to have 3 Brownlow votes in the bag for this game.

.

.

.

8        ESS vs HAW Sun 12 Apr 2015 MCG 3:20PM

Weather: light winds; partly cloudy

The Hawks are certs

The Hawks have named Birchall in the 18, but there may be some doubt on him being right this week.  Matt Spangher was considered more likely to play, but was not named in the 25.

Of interest is that McKernan was upgraded from the rookie list and named in the 7 man IC bench.  Tom Bellchambers was under a cloud early in the week with a minor knee problem.  Look for a possible late withdrawal of Bellchambers on the weekend. Old man Dustin Flectcher pulled up sore after R1 and is out.

Penny Dredfell doesn’t give the Dons much hope to win this one in this article

http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-2-2015-penny

which details that teams getting overrun after looking winning chances in R1 often do poorly in R2.

One thing to help the Dons is that they get an 8 day break compared to a 6 day break for the Hawks.  This will help somewhat, but it only goes part way to overcoming their abnormal pre-season lead in to the real season.

Assessing the merit of Hawthorn’s win over Geelong is another aspect of the analysis.  Based on the R1 winning margin alone, one could assume that the Hawks are going to be all but unbeatable this year.  Delving further into the mystery (and refer to 2015R1 for the summary of the game), it has now been revealed that Dawson Simpson got a knock to the AC joint in the game (not a serious injury, but he was poor to the point of being uncompetitive); and Darcy Lang put in a shocker in his 2nd AFL game. This gave some “excuses” for the Cats’ performance being so poor on the day.

So the correct assessment of the Hawks should probably be: deserved flag favourites and hard to beat.

Weighing it all up – Penny’s article still carries the most weight and the Hawks should be ticked off as certs for this match.

Hawks by 46 points and certs
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 46 points but the Dons won by 2.  A big SORRRRY here.  What went wrong (or right, depending on how you view it).  Firstly, all us “experts” told you that it would take a long while for the Dons to hit top form.  Maybe they have done it better and earlier than everybody thought.  Or maybe, the grand finalists took them a bit easy!  Not sure which is true – or a combination of both.

Next thing to note is that the Hawks lost Josh Gibson and Sam Mitchell between selection day and game day; then James Frawley went down early in the game.

The game pattern on Sunday was almost a dead ringer for the 1999 prelim between Essendon and Caaaarlton. The Bombers were the hottest of favourites on the day (as were the Hawks in R2, 2015).  The Blues jumped them, then the Bombers wore them down and lead by 2 – 3 goals.  Then they eased down to prepare for the grand final.  But a great 4Q by Kouta got the Blues over the line.

Last Sunday, the Hawks “knew” they had the Bombers beaten and were easing up late in the game.  Even early on, they looked a bit smug – missing shots at goal as if to say, oh well, we are only playing the underdone Dons.

It is often the mindset of teams coming off a big premiership win the previous year.

Tom Bellchambers was considered to be in some doubt, but played and got through ok.  It is also noted that the Bombers celebrated the anniversary of their 1984/85 premiership wins (against Hawthorn) over the weekend.  This may have helped!

.

.

.

9        NMFC vs BRIS Sun 12 Apr 2015 Etihad 4:40PM

The Roos are certs

Both teams underperformed last weekend and would love to get a win on the board

The Lions were awful for most of the game last week and were somewhat flattered by scoreboard.  They were much better late – but helped by the high humidity.  It appears that the Lions were a bit stunned by how well the Magpies played last week. Justin Leppitsch was pleased that they were able to storm home (rather than totally capitulate as may have happened last year).

But it was still a shocker against undermanned opposition. And while they have definite scope for improvement on that effort, they now lose both Rockliff and Merrett to injury.  A better four quarter effort is expected, but it is unlikely to be the sort of “off the chart” better performance which may be required to win.

Confession is good for the soul – especially when the indiscretion occurs on an Easter Sunday.  The Roos had a good heart to heart chat during the week.  This should be enough to help them get over the line at home against the Lions.  These talks often result in a much improved performance.  They only need to be somewhere near top form to win this one comfortably.

Lachie Hansen is still not back, but Ben Brown has been named in the 25 after being a late withdrawal last week.

Jarrad Waite remains in the 18 after a real shocker last week.  He was underdone in the pre-season and, when fully fit, he is likely to star sooner or later.

They will go in with Robbie Tarrant and Brown underdone (if they make the final squad).  The tip would be made with more certainty if the Roos didn’t play both Brown and Tarrant.

Roos by 53 points and certs
Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 53 points and they won by 82.  This was the best analysis of the round – because the experts were much less bullish than the 53 points tipped here.  And other things went right for the Roos to boost their winning margin:  Jarrad Waite played one of his blinders (Blues fans can explain to North fans how things work with Waite – he scored 13 SC points in R1!); Robin Nahas played a ripper and Ben Brown did well first up.

The Lions were having one of those absolute shockers that they have from time to time (eg beaten by the Crows in Brisbane last year by 105 pts in R20 last year).  Even when the Roos went a rotation down in 3Q with Nick Dal Santo’s day ending – after Daniel Wells had already been subbed out – they still couldn’t fire a shot.

The Lions lost Michael Close early, while Claye Beams, Matthew Leuenberger and Daniel McStay all failed to reach 30 SC points.  It was noted above that the high humidity had a lot to do with their late comeback vs the Pies in R1 – and so inflated their actual chances in R2.

.

.

.

.

.

Best cert: Suns (a dreadful performance), then Hawks (threw it away, but shocking early) & Roos (never in doubt)

Best Outsider:  the Dees (only played a half), Pies (not a real chance), Swans (blitzed Port) and Blues (woeful) all have some chance

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Suns to win by over 33 points (never a chance); Hawks to win or by over 32 points (never a chance)

Happy tipping!  Look for some favourites to win big this round and for fewer upsets than in R1. (but there were upsets a-plenty!)