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Round 2-7, 2016

Tipping results for R1:  Supertipping: 7 out of 9 and ranked 14,544 out of 39,973 (just fair)

Streak: 3 out of 3 (with Suns, Port and Eagles all winning – nothing too hard or risky so far) and in top 50%

 

R2, 2016 (all times are AEDT / AET)  PAGE DOWN FOR R3

Early thoughts added 29 March 

Final thoughts to be added 31 March or day time 01 April

Early: certs for the round would appear to be the Dogs, Dees, Dockers; very keen on the winning chances of the Swans, Tigers and Roos; a slight leaning to the Crows, Cats and Hawks; best outsider would appear to be the Crows & Giants; there is no outsider really in Hawks / Eagles, but the Hawks deserve favouritism

Round 2, 2016

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 COLL RICH MCG RICH 6 EXTREME A huge chance
2 ADEL PORT ADEL ADEL* 6 HIGH No real outsider here
3 ESS MELB DCKLNDS MELB 39 HIGH No hope
4 BRIS NMFC GABBA NMFC 27 HIGH A slim chance
5 STK WBD DCKLNDS WBD 55 HIGH No hope
6 FREO GCS SUBI FREO 48 HIGH No hope
7 GWS GEEL CANB GEEL 3 HIGH A huge chance
8 HAW WCE MCG HAW 10 EXTREME Tipped to win
9 CARL SYD DCKLNDS SYD 38 HIGH No hope
  • tip changed after late withdrawals if Hartlett and Schulz from Port

Explanations to follow some time Friday

COLL vs RICH at MCG (Friday, April 1 at 7.50pm)
This is an EXTREME variance game; the Pies will be desperate to bounce back from an Absolute Shocker in R1; meanwhile the Tigers fell over the line against the Blues with a couple of heroic efforts;  each team has troubles at present; the Tigers are again without Deledio and Maric (their #1 & 2 players of importance); ruck Hampson is slightly underdone – despite playing last week & Edwards goes out; the Pies lose Swan and Sidebottom (big losses) and also Witts; the Witts injury is not a big blow right now because Grundy comes in; down back, they have Reid in for his first game and a bit underdone, while Brown is doubtful with hammie tightness; their other issue is that they have a trip back from Sydeny on a 6 day break and the Tigers have had an 8 day rest (about perfect for this time of year); just a quick squiz at teams in R2 off a 6 day break playing against teams off an 8 day break:
2015: Ess (8 day break) beat Hawthorn (6db) by 2 points; Hawks were hot favourites
2013: Rich (8db) beat Saints (6db) by 17 points; result about as expected
2012: Carl (7db) beat Bris (5db) by 91 points (about 12 goals over expectations)
2010 was the last time a 6db team beat an 8db team and that was the Lions at home (also playing R1 at home) beating Carlton by 19 points – about as expected
There may be some doubt on a slightly underdone Treloar being able to star 2nd up after a great game 1 for the Pies with 125 SC points; despite all these negatives for the Pies, they may hit back well – having had a week to recover from the drug story in the press (which apparently had a negative impact on them in R1); Tigers by 6 points but avoid the game if you can

Post match review: Tigers were tipped by 6 but the Pies won by 1; analysis was not that great; firstly, the lose was tipped (even though they threw the game away in actual fact); next – the game was labelled as EXTREME variance; but what happened was that it was a dour struggle in which no team was ever likely to put a space in their opponents; sadly, for Tiger fans, they have seen this before; and they have all weekend to think about it; of help for the Pies was that Grundy came in and did well; and while the Pies were good enough to take advantage of their rivals, it was more about Richmond’s errors in the last few minutes

ADEL VS PORT at Adelaide Oval (Sat April 2 at 1.45pm)
The tip began the week as the Crows, then changed to Port and now back to the Crows after Hartlett and Schulz (good contributors in R1) both pulled out on Friday; the concern about tipping the Crows is that their momentum waned late in R1 while Port came good about mid 3Q and finished strongly; the extra day’s break for the Crows is offset by the fact that they traveled in R1; it is suspected that the exit of Dangerfield has swayed people to still tip Port despite the late withdrawals; the Crows deserve to be slight favourites here; this is not a game to be too certain about, however

Post match review: Crows were tipped by 6 and won by 58; analysis was fair; tipping the winner was a plus; it was a smart move to change the tip to Adelaide after the late withdrawals of Hartlett & Schulz; surprisingly, Port was still favourite after these changes; there was also other problems for Port; Chad Wingard scored low numbers and was rested with hammie tightness; Westhoff had a dislocated finger and there were questions on Boak’s fitness; of note is that Polec was rested from playing on the hard Docklands surface in NAB a few weeks ago; he scored 8 SC points in the Showdown; given all that, the margin is not all that unreasonable

 

ESS vs MELB at MCG  (Sat April 2 at 2.10pm)
The Dees are certs to go 2 and zip for the 2016 season; one concern is the absolutely abysmal record the Dees have when starting as favourites; but the belief has been instilled by Paul Roos, according to some key players; so they should be able to handle this burden against the weakest Don team they will have played for a while; the interest in this game will be the margin; the Dons were able to bear up under pressure quite well last weekend up at the Gold Coast – but the Suns had a few underdone and slightly injured players which may have helped the Dons to avoid a complete belting; the Dees deserved their win in one sense last week, but were lucky not to be 2 – 3 goals further down in 3Q when the Giants butchered chances; their 2 ins (Lumumba and Brayshaw) are very handy but perhaps a bit underdone; it would not surprise to see the Dons fall away quickly once the game is gone, but the present tip of 39 points will stand

Post match review: Dees were tipped by 39 but the Dons won by 13; analysis was awful; the one thing that was ignored (thought to be solved now) was the shocking record the Dees have had as favourites in recent times; something else not takan into account was the hordes of Bomber fans marching to the G a la Michael Long; next the underdone Brayshaw (36) appear to have been played a week too early; on top of that, Watts and Hogan both put in shockers; coach Roos talked about having a big NAB Challenge campaign (and, by inference, had a downer in R2 as a consequence) and that some young players looked tired (Viney, Harmes, Hogan, Oliver); Watts and McDonald (Tom) both played out R1 after sustaining injuries during the game; Watts SC points were 89 in R1 and 50 in R2; T McDonald’s were 110 in R1 and 67 in R2.

also the re-signing of Heath Hocking was a boost for Essendon; Hartley played well in his first game for them; and they looked to be really UP for this contest; about tipping the Dees as certs: SORRY; how good are the Dons? too early to tell

 

BRIS vs NMFC at Gabba  (Sat April 2 at 4.35pm)
The Roos have lost quite a few games in QLD as favourites – and here they go again – expected to win by about 4 goals; they lost to the Lions at the Gabba 6 times in a row prior to last year’s big 12 goal win. They have also lost the last 2 up north against the Suns; it is hard to see them losing this time, however; if they do, it may not be so much the unhappy hunting ground as the fact that they FINALLY won a R1 match; can they back it up with a R2 win?  The reason for being confident about the Roos is that they have a tiny injury list – while the Lions are missing Robinson, Dayne the better Beams, while Clarke has (sadly) had to retire & Christensen + Green are a bit underdone; not helping the Lions is that the humidity forecast is moderate only; the 2 doubts on the Roos will mean they won’t quite be tipped as certs

Post match review: Roos were tipped by 27 and they won by 34; analysis was pretty much spot on; however, Christensen and Green did a bit better than anticipated – offset by an injury to Rockliff; Jacobs was a late replacement for Turner; this may have been a plus because Jacobs blanketed Rich (who himself had a minor injury); also Hansen came in for Thompson & this may be been a small negative; the Lions had missed their opportunities early on & then the Roos got on top; for the Roos, the 4 points was all they needed to consolidate their early win; 

 

STK vs WBD at Docklands  (Sat April 2 at 7.25pm)
The recent match between these that everyone remembers is when the Dogs led by 49 points at HT and then the Saints got up and won; but they have already had their rematch 7 weeks later when the Dogs narrowly got over the line; so the revenge / fear factor can be ignored; the Dogs win last week looked fantastic against a team that had a few problems – including Fyfe being below his best & Sandilands out suspended; an impressive win, nonetheless; the Saints looked like winners at 21 points up in 3Q, but fell away badly; see Penny’s take on this below; it is likely that the end result of the loss to Port is a better reflection of the game than the mid-game lead; you get the points for leading at the end! The Saints will be going for Maddie and her brother’s 300th game, but everything else screams out DOGS!  The Saints have a day less to prepare and had to travel in week 1; and it is unlikely that the Dogs will get ahead of themselves at this stage; Hickey will enjoy the fact that Campbell and Minson are still out, but the Dogs ares till certs

Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 55 and they won by 57; analysis was close to perfect here; Penny’s work (see below) helped a bit; the key thing was NOT to over-estimate the “win for Nick & Maddie” factor; McCartin struggled first up and maybe could’ve been given an extra week; Nick himself played a pretty good game; just read the preview above and Penny’s note below and you have the result all sewn up

 

FREO vs GCS at Subi  (Sat April 2 at 7.40pm)
The Dockers get back big Aaron Sandilands this week and this will be a big help; also Michael Johnson returns after being  late withdrawal in R1; expect Fyfe to be better this week; it is a bit hard to get a good line on the Suns’ form – having played the Dons in R1 at home; but they lose Rosa (a pity, given his footy was played for the Eagles in recent years) and the underrated Miller for this clash; given that their midfield is already missing O’Meara and Swallow, the task to win in the west is a difficult one; no need to spend too much time on this one – except to say that the Dockers are likely to win big and are the CERTS of the week.

Post match review: Dockers were tipped by 48 but the Suns won by 26; analysis was dreadful; the Dockers underperformed by about 10 goals the first week and about the same this week; it was assumed that the Suns were just average in week 1; but, since the Dons had an upset win earlier in the day, maybe the Suns’ R1 needs to be re-assessed (but this may be a knee-jerk reaction); maybe the injuries to Miller and Rosa lulled the Dockers into a false sense of security

 

 

GWS vs GEEL at Canberra  (Sun April 3 at 1.10pm)
The Cats were really great for three quarters last weekend against the reigning premiers and the Giants let a game slip against the Dees; so why would anyone give them a hope to beat a rejuvenated Geelong?  Firstly, they get a 2 day extra break – and this will help a lot at this time of year; next they may apply themselves better given the pain of the R1 loss; the important in for them is Coniglio – missing with a minor niggle last week; the Cats’ performance was full of conflicting stories last week – summed up by Dangerfield taking an absolute screamer late in the game and then missing from the top of the square; they were deadly in front of goal early – with 11:1 at Ht and the point was rushed; then they looked jittery in 3Q before powering away; but they won against a weakened reigning premier who looked vastly different than on 2015 GF day; the other doubt about this game is whether it should be labelled as an Extreme variance game; the temptation was resisted, but time will tell; the Cats are just barely tipped to win in Canberra, but are far from being certs

Post match review: Cats were tipped by 3 but the Giants won by 13; analysis was reasonable; not good to tip a loser, but you were warned that this was a BIG danger game; the call on EXTREME variance was a close call; at the end of the game, it is still line ball of whether this was an EXTREME variance game – with the Cats coming from well down to almost draw level; it probably was just in the EXTREME range; 2 things helped tipsters to overestimate the Cats; firstly, the 8 day break compared to the 6 day break (denied by Chris Scott post-game) and also their tendency to underperform after playing Hawthorn (and an injury-depleted Hawthorn team at that); the injury to Duncan was more of a negative for the Cats than that of Marchbank for the Giants; coach Cameron said that they had 3-4 midfielders down in R1 (probably Greene – who went form 51SC pts to 120; and Steele – who was dropped; the 3rd/4th is debatable); both Dangerfield and Joel Selwood were well down on their R1 figures; Selwood is still underdone despite managing to get up for R1

 

HAW vs WCE at MCG  (Sun April 3 at 3.20pm)
The changes from last year’s GF are:
Hawks – out: Lake and Hale (retired), Roughead, Hodge, Shiels, Hill (all injured), Suckling (traded)
In (not including those on 7 man IC bench): Hartung, Litherland, O’Rourke, Sicily; this makes the Eagles look like a good tip
Eagles – out: Masten, Ellis, Wellingham, Sheed (all injured) & Rosa (traded)
In (not including those on 7 man IC bench): Jetta, Redden, McKenzie
The 7 Man IC includes these names: Brand & Hardwick for the Hawks while the Eagles have Cole; not exactly household names
There are critical tests for both teams; Ceglar was “no cert” earlier in the week for the Hawks; a fit Ceglar would be a huge boost for the Hawks who were beaten in the ruck against Geelong (with debutante Pittonet now being dropped & now they face Nicnat!); McGovern didn’t train earlier in the week for the Eagles, while the underdone Shuey was on light duties and Redden is still a bit underdone; the extra days rest works in favour of the Eagles, but the home ground advantage will swing the tip ever so slightly in favour of the Hawks; this is a game to avoid – due to the number of players missing and under injury clouds; it may all depend on who is fit and which inexperienced players perform under pressure; Hawks just but leave it alone if you can; the flood of money for the Eagles suggests that Ceglar may be in doubt, but he made the 22 cut on Friday

Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 10 points and they won by 46; analysis was very good – despite being 36 points out; firstly, any tme you tip and outsider and it wins, this is a plus; next, the variance was correctly labelled as EXTREME (being >6 goals outside of expectations); the most surprising thing was that the Eagles were so strongly fancied; it was (wrongly) assumed that maybe Ceglar was not going to come up; what was wrong was that Shuey and Redden did okay; but the inexperienced players for each team told the story; Jamie Bennell scored 23SC points; Sheppard scored 35, Jetta 27 (coming off an injury) and Duggan (who might have got a slight injury) got 17; on the flip side, the Hawks had Hartung 104 and Sicily 92 + 4 goals; perhaps the easy win by the Eagles over a struggling Lions helped artificially boost their ratings; of interest is that the two teams to miss a NAB match this year were the Lions and Saints; the teams that they played in R1 (Eagles and Port) both put in shockers in R2; news from training 05 April was that Shuey hurt his ankle in the pre-game warm-up; he did okay on the day but only scored 7 DT points out of his total of 95 in 1Q; that was when the Hawks got the jump on the Eagles; it was also confirmed that Duggan copped an ankle injury during the game; and Sheppard (see just above) was on light duties with his calf strapped
 

CARL vs SYD at Docklands  (Sun April 3 at 4.40pm)
The Blues were highly competitive last weekend against a Tiger team missing Deledio and Maric; this game is a rematch of a recent NAB match at the same venue when the Blues lost by 22 points; the long break (10 days) is probably too long for the Blues; they may have played the game over and over in their heads prior to Sunday afternoon; the 8 day break for the Swans is just nice; compare to 2008 when the Tigers had a long break and were blown away in R2 by the Roos – down 7 goals to 3 at QT and then never in the hunt; there are positive signs for Carlton but patience is required; the Swans’ midfield is flying and they are betrter in the ruck now than last year when Pyke was struggling physically; Swans are certs

Post match review: Swans were tipped by 38 and they won by 60; analysis was okay – and about as good as most; maybe the long break factor for the Blues was underestimated; but the CERT tip was correct;  Dale Thomas did well on his return after suspension; regardless of the analysis of the break above, the Swans were always so superior that they were going to win

CERTS: Dockers (awful) , then Dogs (never in doubt) , Dees (awful) & Swans (always looked good) 

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong):  Dogs to win by over 29 points (never in doubt) ; Dockers to win by over 27 points (never a hope)

 

Technical Analysis prior to R2, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 31 Mar 2016

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: nothing done yet this year

 

This week, the game of interest is Dogs versus Saints. It is Nick riewoldt’s 300th game and the “Maddie” game as well; last year, the Saints lost the Maddie game to the Tigers (with cousin Jack playing for Richmond); the Tigers led by 52 points at the last change, but the Saints booted 6 goals to nil in the final term to lose by 16 points.

While the Maddie and 300 will be a positive; but there is a huge negative that is likely to “weigh down” the St Kilda team.  And this is that they were blown away late in the game against Port – having led by 21 points in the third term.

Looking at teams that have been in the game late in the contest in R1 over the years that get blown away late – they have a terrible record in R2.  The 7 occurrences of this since 2010 have resulted in 6 teams underperforming and 1 slightly beating expectations; the average underperformance is a whopping 25 points.

The notable cases are:

2014: Crows blown away late by the Cats; lost last term by 33 points to lose the game by 39; then were smashed by 54 points in a Showdown when they were slight outsiders only

2014: Swans blown away by the Giants R1 – losing final term 6 goals to nil.
Next week – Swans favourites, but lose to the Pies by 20 points

2011: Lowly Port take it up to the all-conquering Pies in R1 to come from well down to trail by 15 points in the third term; end up losing by 75; next week, start favourites at home to the Eagles and lose by 18 points.

This info won’t help normal tipsters as the Dogs are hot favourites anyway and are tipped to win by about 4-5 goals; I expect them to win by over 7 goals

 

R3, 2016 (all times are AET)  PAGE DOWN FOR R4

 

Tipping results for R2:  Supertipping: 5 out of 9 (okay in a difficulty week) for a total of 12 and ranking improved sightly from 14,544 to 12,676  out of 41,558 tipsters (just fair)

Streak: totally wiped by Dees and Freo, but Dogs and Swans won easily; streak wiped and now back at 1 – ranked 9,536 and in bottom 56%

50/50: 1 out of 2 with the Dockers getting smashed (never a hope) and the Dogs always likely to win big (the positive story)

 

Early thoughts added 3 April
Final thoughts to be added 07 April or day time 08 April

Early: certs for the round appear to be Port and Cats; maybe also Suns; others tipped to win at this stage are Pies, Swans, Roos and Dogs; tough to pick are the Tigers / Crows and Eagles / Dockers games; maybe Crows and Dockers in those games

Tips below subject to minor changes on Friday 08 April and extra comments / explanations to be added

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance   Outsider is
1 PORT ESS ADEL  PORT  34  EXTREME   A tiny chance
2 STK COLL MCG  COLL  23  HIGH    A tiny chance
3 RICH ADEL DCKLNDS  ADEL  EXTREME   No outsider here
4 SYD GWS SCG  SYD 14   HIGH   A slim hope
5 GCS CARL GLDC  GCS  39  HIGH   No hope
6 WCE FREO SUBI  WCE  2  EXTREME   A huge chance
7 NMFC MELB HOBART  NMFC  17  HIGH   A tiny chance
8 WBD HAW DCKLNDS  WBD  6  EXTREME   No outsider here
9 GEEL BRIS GEEL  GEEL  68  HIGH   No hope

Tips above subject to minor changes on Friday 08 April and extra comments / explanations to be added

Friday April 8
Port Adelaide v Essendon at Adelaide Oval (7.50pm)
Port goes into this game with a few top players missing – Hartlett and Schulz were both late withdrawals for E2 and still not back; they also lost Carlile and Wingard to injury; Polec scored very low in the Showdown and may be carrying an injury of sorts; they are playing the “weren’t going to win a game until they won one last week” Bombers.

The question is: how does one assess Essendon? Are they better than people thought?  Maybe a one-off blip against a fragile Melbourne team? To look at a similar pattern – the Saints were tipped by some in 2015 to not win a game; after a competitive loss to the Giants, they traveled north to the Gold Coast won well after an 8 goal to 1 2Q; the next week the Saints (on the back of 2 x 6 day breaks and an interstate trip) played the Pies; after an even 1Q, the Pies blew them away to win by 74 points.

The previous year (2014), the Dees were terrible early before winning away against the Crows in R7; Crows had the R8 bye and maybe treated R7 as a bye also; the Dees had a competitive loss against the Dogs a week later.

This is an EXTREME variance game because it is hard to know how each team will be mentally and how they will perform with the limited talent (for various reasons) on the field; after some deliberation, it’s Port by 34 points but not certs; it you are in a “pick the margin round 1” type comp, you may consider going a slightly outlandish margin (Bombers to win: Port by a few points or by 60ish) if you want to put yourself out of the common ranges; but remember that there are a few hard games to pick and you may select a different 9 winners anyway.

The EXTREME variance gives the Bombers a tiny chance – with Port vulnerable injury-wise and sometimes underperforming after a Showdown

Post match review: Port was tipped by 34 points and they won by 61; analysis was fair; it appears that the Bombers win should probably be regarded as a momentary blip – because an undermanned Port smashed the early; some things worked well for Port on the night; firstly, they seemed to be “up and about early” and having no mental scars from the Showdown shocker; next is that Polec (awful numbers last weekend) was excellent on Friday night; that pretty much explains it; not sure that the EXTREME variance call was correct.

 

 

 

Saturday April 9 
St Kilda v Collingwood at MCG (1.45pm)
The Saints were great for a 2 1/2 quarters against Port and then were no match for a polished Bulldogs team; it was a big build-up as well with Nick’s 300th and the Maddie thing as well; the Pies have been struggling a bit so far; t
hey would’ve been 0-2 like the Saints had the Tigers not shot themselves in the foot last Friday.  Now they have had a nice weekend rest and are expected to win this week.  When teams go on a long losing run and then have an unimpressive win, they often come flying out of the blocks the following week.  The Pies’ losing run was only 1 really (when they were blown away by the Swans in R1) but it may have felt like they were in a big hole and so they may play in R3 like their R1 loss was >= their 4th in a row; if so, they would lead by 3-5 goals at QT and have the game virtually in the bag mid 2Q. However, if the Saints are competitive early, it might be a bit of a dour struggle; it’s not much help to tipsters, but the above all boils down to: don’t expect a St Kilda comeback if they get behind early; despite that Pies not being labelled as certs, it is a little surprising that the experts are only tipping them by 10 points or so; they really should win by more than that

A late Saturday morning note for both Collingwood and Richmond: when teams win with a kick AFTER the siren, they tend to underperform in the next week; going back over a few decades, teams that won with a kick after the siren underperformed 13 times and exceeded expectations 9 times with an average underperformance of 7 (ie 7 points worse than expected); but the variance is very high with 7 of the cases yielding a +60, +48, +44, -60, -50, -45 and -44; the Saints need the Pies to underperform by 11 or more in order to win – which happened in 10 of the 22 cases; does the fact that this occurred on a Friday night last week minimise the effect?  not sure!  In one Friday night case (Freo beating St Kilda), the Dockers underperformed by 28 points the following week and the Saints went 100 points better than expected. This was a 2nd last / last round situation – vastly different from this R3 clash; if this trend holds, this would yield wins to both St Kilda and Richmond this weekend; it’s also the 1966 Saints flag celebration; will this help? again, not sure

The losers (Richmond in this case) have exceed expectations in 8 of 14 cases with an average of +7 (but zero if you exclude the St Kilda 100+ case); they only need to outperform expectations by a few points to win; it is also noted that 38 possession-winning Trent Cotchin copped the brunt of the talk-back callers ire for not showing leadership; just think – had he got 50, they would have won; the one and only meaningful criticism was that he kicked short and safe with the ball (unlike the missing Deledio); this snippet may hold the key to the game; the Tigers will probably lose if fear is the motivation; fear causes people to play safe and not take the game on; the Crows will indeed be taking the game on

Post match review: Pies were tipped by 23 points but the Saints won by 29; analysis was way off the mark; the result was also bordering on EXTREME variance; it appears that the green stuff above explains the result better than anything else; the Pies lacked “surge and pep off out high backs” after Ramsay was injured and then Williams didn’t last long; The Saints lost 3 players (Riewoldt, Roberton and McCartin) and still held the Pies at arms length.  The bottom end of magpie players scored very poorly compared to their opponents – Sc scores: Willaims 18, Blair 21, Sinclair 24, debutante Goodyear 25, Moore 26 and Howe 37; the Saints only nder 40 player was the injured McCartin with 37; Sidebottom and Varcoe expected back next week.  Did the 1966 premiership celebrations help the Saints?  Maybe a bit.

 

 

Richmond v Adelaide at Etihad Stadium (2.10pm)
See also above in green
This is a tricky one, but the Crows will be tipped; they are in better form than Richmond and have fewer injuries; the Tigers have been known to bounce back well when they significantly underperform; but last Friday night, they only really underperformed for about 6 minutes – just enough to lose the game; this is almost identical to their loss against the Suns in R16 2012; they were 10 points up with a minute or so to go and made countless errors; the following week they have a game against the Roos where they were slight underdogs; they also lost that one by under a goal.

Now to the Crows; Port was really awful and injured last week in the Showdown; a better guide to the Crows’ chances is its narrow loss to the Roos in R1 when they led for much of the contest; Adelaide’s potent forward line will be a challenge for the Tigers; there was some talk that Chaplin was only kept as insurance; now that Grimes (who was apparently going to play on Betts, according to the AFL website) is injured, let’s see how much the insurance policy pays against the talls of the Crows; this may help determine the result; in the end, despite some concerns, the Crows are tipped because they have fewer injuries (but Brad Crouch has now done a hammie and will be replaced by Lyons); anything could happen here and it is not a game for tipping with confidence.

Post match review: The Crows were tipped by 9 points and they won by 36; analysis was reasonably good; the EXTREME variance call was correct – with the Crows getting out to a 52-point lead at one stage; see the green writing above; the likelihood is that the Crows played with flair and the Tigers played with fear; the Crows lost Tom Lynch and Brad Crouch going out and being replaced by Riley Knight and Jarryd Lyons; in the end, the worth of the Crow Showdown was underestimated

 

Sydney Swans v GWS Giants at SCG (4.35pm)
The Giants have never won at the SCG; their magnificent R1 win in 2014 was a home game for them; their losses at the SCG have been by 129, 46 and 21 points; the Giants are getting closer to a win; they may be some chance to win, but did get the Cats at a good time last weekend (despite having to travel in consecutive weeks); they did beat the Swans in the NAB 2016 by 34 points at Drummoyne Oval; but the Swans have never been a great NAB 
performer; and they have been great so far – although the Pies lost Swan early and the Blues also had their injury concerns last week against Sydney; The Giants are a small hope so the Swans won’t be tipped as certs

Post match review: Swans were tipped by 14 points and they won by 25; analysis was fair; Williams was a late inclusion for the Giants for Buntine and Corr got a knock early; the SC totals were almost even (with the Giants winning)

 

Gold Coast Suns v Carlton at Metricon Stadium (7.25pm)
The Suns have traveled back from Perth, but should still be certs to beat the struggling Blues; out goes Everitt and Lamb for Carlton (both injured); now the Blues have a much inferior list and a similar injury list to the Suns; and the game is played in the high humidity time frame;
the only problem that the Suns have is to focus on this game and not look ahead to the R4 Q-clash; it shouldn’t be enough to distract them

Post match review: Suns were tipped by 39 points and they won by 54; analysis was fair and the Suns were correctly labelled as certs; they won by more than most expected – despite copping more injuries than the Blues on the day; the Suns seem to be on a roll now (undefeated after a horror 2015); Gaza is back and Aaron Hall is thriving after having his best pre-season

 

West Coast Eagles v Fremantle at Subiaco Oval (7.40pm)
OH BOY!!! There are going to be tears on Saturday night; either the Dockers will be winless with a road trip to play the Roos; or the Eagles will have lost the GF replay and Derby in consecutive weeks; This is an EXTREME variance game; both teams have some injury problems; this bit has been written Wed afternoon and the Tuesday training in the West has seen the following absentees: Sandilands, Fyfe and Pav didn’t train, while Barlow trained away from the main group and was joined by Zac Dawson; Alex Pearce )#2 ruck in R2) also missed training; Ed Langdon was on light duties; the Tuesday injury report on the Dockers website gave away little; coach Lyon said all 4 who missed training will play in the Derby

Over at the Eagles, McGovern and Shuey missed training on Tuesday, while Duggan, Sheppard and McKenzie were on  light duties; Masten looks to be a cert to return after 1 game back in the WAFL; coach Simpson says that Shuey and Duggan will be given every chance to play (= “test”, supposedly)

Thursday’s training will be of interest, but maybe both clubs will lock the media out; missing training on a Tuesday will not be a concern for every player every time, but these guys need to be watched; all doubtful players were selected to play, but no training notes came from either team; keep your ears open Friday and Saturday for possible late changes.

The Dockers have an advantage in that they didn’t travel last week and have a day’s extra rest; but now they lose Mundy; this will change the tip to the Eagles, but with an EXTREME variance, anything could happen; the Eagles appear to be a bit too strongly fancied

Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 2 points (after Mundy pulled out injured) and they won by 33; analysis was not so flash; the variance was not quite EXTREME; the Dockers didn’t show much – however, they lost Sandilands early and had no genuine back-up ruckman; Alex Pearce filled in and was soundly beaten; nobody will ever know how the Dockers would have gone with Sandi (and Griffin not in the team as a help); the Freo ins de Boer and Mzungu (late in) were modest and Johnson 2nd up was just fair (but Masten wasn’t that great 1st up for the Eagles either); it is still a shock to have the Dockers 0-3 and they apparently had a heart to heart some time in the few days after this game.

 

Sunday April 10
North Melbourne v Melbourne at Blundstone Arena (1.10pm)
The Roos go from hot Brisbane in R2 and travel again to cool Hobart; see Penny’s preview on this game below; the Roos should really win this one, but they do seem a bit too strongly fancied at over 6 goals; this seems to be based on the assumption that R2 was the best the Dees have to offer; it’s a slight danger game and the Dees have a slight chance to cause an upset; Penny has summed it up fairly well; the Roos will be the tip, but not with total confidence.

Post match review: Roos were tipped by 17 points and they won by 5; analysis was excellent – since everyone was tipping the Roos as world certs; the poor performance by Melbourne in R2 was overblown in its importance (as if they had made no progress at all under Paul Roos); this and the North travel factor were wrongly assessed by most experts; Penny (below) did a good job of explaining things and putting the likely Melbourne response in R3 into perspective.

 

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium (3.20pm)
The Dogs were smashed by Hawthorn in their only match-up with ex Hawk assistant Luke Beveridge as coach; on that day, the Dogs copped a couple of injuries and fell away badly late in the contest; they should be more ready now – and this time the Hawks have a few injuries to contend with; it appears that the Dogs are ready to go now, but it is not completely certain.  Given the high intensity of this clash, it could end badly for one of them; it brings back memories of the Hawks in the early 2000s being totally smashed by Essendon a few times; the Hawks may have got the Eagles at a good time – with the Shuey injury in the warm-up and a few others struggling on the day; Dogs narrowly but with an EXTREME variance

Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 6 points but the Hawks won by 3; analysis was fair; did the Hawks win through experience in a tight finish? probably more that the Dogs lost it; the key error was a shot at goal under pressure by the Dogs which gave the Hawks back the ball; had the kick just gone up and down deep fwd, it would have kept the ball locked in the Dogs fwd line; not that that actual incident led to the final Hawk goal; Dogs injuries – they lost Easton Wood on the day and then Robert Murphy in the last minute

 

Geelong v Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium (4.40pm)
The Cats are the certs of the week here against a Lions team without Rockliff & Dayne Beams – and with Robinson in doubt; the Pies played the Giants (who had an 8 day break) on a 6 day break after beating the Hawks; this time they get 7 days (to Brisbane’s 8), but the Lions have had to go to Perth in R1; so this is pretty even in terms of travel-weariness; the other things to help the Cats is that it is Danger’s first home game for 4 points; and also the Lions have a Q-Clash in R4; so they may “put the Q in “Iraq” late in the game and get blown away; it’s hard to imagine the Cats not pouring on the pressure late (if nicely in front) before a delirious home crowd.

Post match review: Cats were tipped by 68 points and they won by 69; analysis was just about perfect – even down to pulling away in 4Q; in fact, it was this factor that made the win bigger than most of the experts tipped (abt 50-55 pts); Rich was a late withdrawal for the Lions and this also helped the Cats a bit; but he was already considered doubtful during the week, so the experts should have had this factored in already

 

Certs: Cats (never in doubt) and then the Suns (never in doubt)

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Pies to win by >13 points (never a hope); Dockers to win or to lose by less than 23 points (had  a chance but lost Sandilands early); Dees to win or to lose by less than 36 points (never in doubt from mid 2Q); Cats to win by more than 57 points (always appeared on track and got there in 4Q)

 

 

Technical Analysis prior to R3, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 08 Apr 2016

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was just about prefect; everything was summed up as well as it could have been

This week, the game of interest is Roos versus the Dees in Hobart. The Dees have been really AWFUL as favourites in recent years; looking at their time under Paul Roos:

In 2014 R1 they lost as favs to the Saints and then got smashed R2 by the Eagles; that was Paul Roos’ first 2 games as coach;  then in R19 they lost to the Lions by 23 points as narrow favourites and the in R20 lost to the Hawks by 50 points – narrowly beating expectations

Then favs R21 2014 when flogged by the Giants then in R22 just fell below expectations (losing to the Eagles by 66 points in Perth)

Melbourne lost as favourites vs Essendon R15 2015; then were 8 point favourites again over the Lions the next week at the MCG and won by 24 points (16 pts better than expected).

The trend is generally upwards here (each time the Dees front up after losing as favourites) and the key is that the Melbourne players apparently have a higher level of self-belief (or so they tell us); of course, most pundits have dropped off them quickly after last week’s effort. Not me; I reckon that they will bounce back quite well.  But given that the Roos are expected to win by over 5 goals, I am not that keen on the Dees chances of winning; they do have a small chance, but I reckon that they will avoid a flogging here.

Expect the Dees to win or to lose by less than 5 goals; I can envisage this going down to the wire; helping this prediction is the fact that the Roos are n the road for the second week running (albeit with an 8 day break); they expect a strong wind in Hobart on Sunday (perhaps mainly across the ground) but if the Dees gain kick with it in the first term, this would be a help; conversely, the Roos may tire late a bit due to the travel factor; it is also noted that the scribes will be already focusing on Roos vs Dockers R4 (especially if the Dockers lose on Saturday night) – a minor distraction for the North players.

 

Round 4, 2016 (all times are AET)  PAGE DOWN FOR R5

Tipping results for R3:  Supertipping: 7 out of 9 (okay in a difficulty week) for a total of 19 and ranking improved sightly from 12,676 to 8,703 out of 42,179 tipsters (just fair)

Streak: 2 certs correctly tipped – with Suns and Cats winning easily; a lot almost lost their lollies with the Roos (who fell over the line); streak now up to 3 – ranked 12,114 and in bottom 64%

50/50: 2 out of 4 with the Dockers losing by too much, the Pies getting beaten; then the good results were the Dees getting close enough and the Cats winning big enough; now at 3 out of 6 = 50% (= average)

Early thoughts added 10 April

The certs appear to be the Cats, Suns, Dogs; with other teams to be tipped likey to be Eagles, Hawks and Roos; tough games to pick are Crows / Swans and GWS / Port – with Crows and Giants being the very early thoughts

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 WCE RICH SUBI  WCE  18  EXTREME  a small chance
2 ESS GEEL MCG  GEEL  42  HIGH   no hope
3 HAW STK LNCSTN  HAW  32  EXTREME  a small chance
4 BRIS GCS GABBA  GCS  41  HIGH  no hope
5 CARL WBD DCKLNDS  WBD  33  HIGH  a small chance
6 ADEL SYD ADEL  ADEL  5  EXTREME  no real outsider
7 GWS PORT HMBSH  GWS  2  HIGH  no real outsider
8 COLL MELB MCG  COLL  25  EXTREME  a small chance
9 NMFC FREO DCKLNDS  NMFC  14  EXTREME  a small chance

 

 

 

 

West Coast Eagles v Richmond at Subiaco Oval Friday April 15 (8.10pm)
It will be good for the Tigers to get away; that’s what coach Hardwick reckoned after last week’s bad loss. The depressive gloom can be overwhelming in the same environment; so there is some truth to the statement; getting out of the fishbowl environment of Melbourne in the midst of a footy season will assist somewhat.

Not enough to tip the Tigers but just enough to avoid declaring the Eagles as certs. Of course, if the low feeling follows them all the way over, a possible shellacking is possible.

Most experts have already pencilled in the 4 points to the Eagles.  But the Eagles’ Derby win was a little difficult to assess. They were behind when Sandilands went down early in the game, got away to a handy lead, then had to stave off a Dockers comeback – which they did – to win comfortably.  This could be seen as an easy home win (after R2 GF replay and then a Derby) prior to a tough road trip to play the Swans.

The Eagles have had 2 x 6 day breaks and their website mentioned a number of sore players who will be given a chance to prove their fitness.  As this is game 1, it give you a chance to check for late changes; Eric Mackenzie (toe), Jamie Cripps (thigh) and Jeremy McGovern (AC joint) were mentioned in perthnow.com.au as some players having injuries from the Derby.  But they do get the benefit of 2 games in a row in the west.

The Tigers have had a 8 and 6 day break

Ivan Maric is an emergency and the reports say he won’t be back this week (as if he is NOT a travelling emergency); he has had only one game back in the VFL and unlikely to come up on the short break with a trip west.  This leaves Hampson (with small help from Vickery – who got 4 weeks for hitting Dean Cox in 2014) up against Nicnat and Lycett.

The variance is marked as EXTREME due to the uncertainty about Richmond’s mental state; Eagles by 18 points but not certs

Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 18 points and they won by 68; analysis was miles off; it was assumed that the Tigers would fins something; rather, they looked like they were still on a big downer; the Eagles lost Priddis before the game – with his replacement Hutchings just fair; the Tigers ins of Moore and Hunt were low scorers; the one big excuse for the Tigers is that they lost Hampson pretty early and then were undersized in the ruck against Nicnat and Lycett; the road trip didn’t really help the Tigers (as the coach had hoped); they seemed to handball too much and get themselves under pressure.

The Eagles pretty much did everything well; Shuey excelled after missing some of the pre-season; the only positive in the analysis (apart from tipping the winner) was that a shellacking was not discounted.

 

 

 

Essendon v Geelong at MCG Saturday April 16 (1.45pm)
This is the “Country” match played in the middle of the city – featuring country boys Joe Daniher and Tom Hawkins.  We are all trying to figure out what Essendon’s true form is; but, whatever the answer, it won’t be enough to give them a chance against the Cats. Ex Cats ….. will line up for Essendon.  The Bombers met a fired up  and angry Port last week (with Port being thrashed in a showdown the week before) and the game was over early. But The Bombers fought out the game okay; a triple digit result looked a distinct possibility at QT.

The Bombers have an 8 day break versus 6 for Geelong; that’s about their only big plus.  The Cats are certs to win this tussle; so sure are they that the Cats have rested old man Corey Enright.

Expect a bit of emotion at the end with ex Cats Stokes and Kelly; Cats by 42 points and certs

Post match review: Cats were tipped by 42 points and they won by 30; analysis was reasonably good; most experts expect them to win by about 9 goals; and the Cats were still correctly labelled as certs.  They could have won by more perhaps – with 27 scoring shots to 12; but the Dons narrowly won the SC scores and lost Laverde mid game; Kolodjashnij was a late in for Kersten for the Cats, but this change didn’t have a bearing on the result.

 

Hawthorn v St Kilda at Aurora Stadium Saturday April 16 (2.10pm)
Refer to last week’s green coloured comments about winning a match on the last kick of the day; the Hawks “won” this with about a minute to play – but it was very emotional.  This may have an effect on their output this week.  This will be 2 weeks in a row where the Saints come up against a team who won a game late – that had seemed lost – in the previous week.  The Hawks appear to have rested Schoenmakers and Gibson (“soreness” gets a run in both injuries); so it looks like the Hawks are very confident; Hodge comes back, but not Hill.

The Hawks have won 5 in a row against St Kilda since now Hawk BB McEvoy kicked a goal with seconds to go; the smallest win was 30 pts in that winning streak; the fact that the Saints played against the “youngest” team last week (Pies average age last weekend was the lowest of all teams taking the park) takes some of the gloss off the win!

The “last kick” theory on one side versus the horrible floggings the Saints have received (incl 145 pts in 2014) on the flipside make this an EXTREME variance game; Hawks by 32 points and almost, but not, certs
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 32 points and they won by 3; analysis was reasonably good again; most experts had the Hawks as 8 goal certs; in retrospect, the Hawthorn celebration at the last goal in the Dogs game R3 seemed a bit extreme; it was excused because Sicily had just broken into the team and he booted 3 in 4Q; but the letdown after such an emotional win again took its toll; the Saints have had the benefit of playing against such sides (Pies and Hawks) in successive weeks; a curio is that Sicily kicked the first goal against the Saints; the Hawks jumped the Saints early and then the Saints made it a game; the EXTREME variance call was correct because the margin was > 36 points off the expected margin; plus the Hawks were 3 goals up twice and lost the lead both times; Hodge was just fair, but good in the middle late; the pressure applied by the Saints was excellent; Saints coached said that they were very flat after the game and “shot ourselves in the foot”; basically, the Saints lost this due to inexperience in the end

 

Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns at Gabba Saturday April 16 (4.35pm)
Miller and Ah Chee are back for the Suns – even though they lose Thompson and McKenzie to injury.  The Suns look to have everything going for them – including not having to travel for R3&4

Brisbane has avoided major scrutiny so far with three efforts which all fall in the “acceptable loss” realm.  While they may be really UP for this game, there also may be a feeling of dread that they are catching the Suns at a bad time.  There is a real chance of a big blow-out occurring here. Rockliff is still out; the Suns appear to be on a roll and should win comfortably; Suns by 41 points and certs of the week
Post match review: Suns were tipped by 41 points but the Lions won by 13; analysis was dreadful; a “cert” lost; SORRY! The Lions won this by 13 points, but won by 0:13 and won the SC score by 292; the Suns coach said they didn’t get ahead of themselves, but some players said that they were flat.  Eade is treating this as an aberration; the press in the pre-season talked about the Lions having a horror first 8 weeks (and could be 0-8); it appears that the Lions really set themselves for this one; was the Stefan Martin hit (and then his exit) an extra spur for the Lions? Maybe; hard to say; of interest is the the Lions played the Cats the previous Sunday; the Lions exceeded expectations by 29 points and the Cats went 25 pts worse than expected

 

Carlton v Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium Saturday April 16 (7.25pm)
The Dogs may, perhaps, suffer a bit of a letdown after the R3 loss to Hawthorn in a seesawing affair.  They have still managed to exceed expectations for every game this year – but with diminishing returns.  They would need to majorly underperform this week to lose.

Scribes are likely to be patient for a while with the Blues.  They have gone into a major rebuild & with a new coach.  The patience will last through R4&5 vs Dogs and Dockers (in WA) until the R6 Bombers game.

A loss by less than expected is the most likely result for this contest.  The Dogs rebounded very well from their only other Hawthorn game under their new coach – but that was a much different story.  It was a mauling on a day when they lost players to injury early.  Jed Adcock gets promoted and is handy insurance for the LTI Murphy; Dogs by 33 points and almost certs

Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 33 points and won by 36; analysis was pretty good here

 

 

Adelaide v Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval Saturday April 16 (7.40pm)  Sunday April 17
The Giants have three injuries as they come into their game against Port; this is mentioned here because all three – Hoskin-Elliott (that’s 1 so far), Corr and Smith recorded lower than expected numbers last week; but still the Giants outscored the Swans in SC points; the conclusion is that the Swans win wasn’t as good as it looked; having said that, the Swans have won 3 in a row in SA against the Crows.

This is a critical game for the Crows; a win will see them at 3-1 when most might have had them at 1-3; if they lose, then they play the Hawks away in R5 with the prospect of going 2&3; also this is Tippett’s first game back in Adelaide against the Crows as a Swan – he may slightly underperform; there is a rumour gong around that Tex Walker is playing with a foot injury.  Jarrad McVeigh is first up after a knee problem and may be slightly underdone.

So, although the Crows will be tipped, there is a concern that the Swans may come brim full of confidence; and there is concern about how valid the Crows, wins have been; as such, the variance will be EXTREME; Crows by 5 points

Post match review: Crows were tipped by 5 points and they won by 10; analysis was reasonably good in this instance, but the scoring graph is not an EXTREME variance one; good to tip the winner, however, and it appears that the SC scores from the Swans / GWS game provided us with a good lead (with GWS “beating” the Swans in SC scores – and then GWS outperforming expectations the following week and the Swans ever so slightly underperforming)

 

 

GWS Giants v Port Adelaide at StarTrack Oval (Manuka – Canberra) Sunday April 17  (1.10pm)
see above comments in the Sydney game about the Giants players; the Giants have had to travel in R2 & 4 to Canberra for home games; mercifully, their away game in R3 was against the Swans; this is a huge help for them. Port had a good win over the Bombers and get Hartlett + Wingard back; meanwhile Mumford is sailing close to the wind in terms of suspension; while he is doing this, it can be unsettling for opponents; the 9 day break for Port could possibly be too long; this is a game to avoid, but the Giants will be the tip – without much confidence; Giants by 2 points

Post match review: GWS were tipped by 2 points and they won by 86; analysis was poor in all aspects except 1 – that the winner was tipped; Port underperformed after a easy win on a Friday night (and in which they cruised a bit at the end); teams in this position early in the season often underperform if they play the following Sunday; the break is too long and they can tend to “not come to play”

 

Collingwood v Melbourne at MCG Sunday April 17  (3.20pm)
There are 2 schools of thought here.

A: the Pies should bounce back after their shocker against the Saints in R3 (who were UP for their 50 year flag celebration – pity the Captains didn’t swap jumpers after the game)
B: the Dees will see this as a chance to notch up a rare recent win over Collingwood (last win in 2007?)

There is a concern that the Magpie coach may have “lost the players” (Little Bo Peep once had a similar problem!); this appears unlikely; but, if true, the Dees would almost certainly win.  In any case, the Pies are under immense pressure; having some experience come back this week will help; they were the youngest team on the park last weekend

How will Melbourne respond to their narrow loss which maybe should have been a win?  This game went for 142 minutes; the previous longest in the new era of less rotations was 131/2 for Port and the Saints in R1; both teams lost badly the next week (although injuries were partly to blame for Port’s loss) and both team’s worst quarter was Q1; it is quite likely that both the Dees and Roos may struggle this week;  on this basis, it’s the Pies by 25 points and with EXTREME variance; but you would want to see them lead at QT to be confident

Post match review: Pies were tipped by 25 points but the Dees won by 35; analysis was not that great here; the poor form of the Magpies was not taken into account enough; the positive was that the variance was correctly labelled as EXTREME; it appears that the minutes Melbourne played last week was not a big minus; the other plus (no help for tipsters) was that the Magpies really needed to start well to erase the memory of previous weeks; they didn’t do this (well from half way through 1Q anyway); on top of all this, they had injuries (of varying levels) to Cloke, Reid, Ash Moore and Sinclair; White came in late for Goldsack; Varcoe came back from injury and struggled; Toovey came back in, played on Watts and struggled; the Pies are in trouble; the Dees are doing well and have improved; everyone is just trying to work out how much they have come on

 

North Melbourne v Fremantle at Etihad Stadium Sunday April 17  (4.40pm)
See above comment son the Melbourne game; the Dockers seem to have had a heart to heart this week; this may help – and they do well at Docklands; this is a test for the Roos, while the Dockers cannot really afford to go down 0-4; expect them to be fighting hard – especially early on; Griffin (maybe with help from Hannath) will have to contest against Goldstein; the Dockers will need to be competitive in this area to have a chance; it could happen – if the Docker midfield can lift on recent efforts; the 142 minutes for North’s game last Sunday is Freo’s best chance to win; EXTREME variance and North by 14 points

Post match review: Roos were tipped by 14 points and they won by 31; analysis was just so-so; the Dockers were not great early, but fought back well in 2Q; Griffin was no match for Goldstein; as above in the Melbourne game, the 142 minutes didn’t seem to matter too much (on a 7 day break – maybe it is only a factor between R1 & R2); the fall of Freo has been a bit staggering so far in 2016. Their other INS of Taberner and Crozier produced low numbers

 

CERTS: Suns (dropped off late and lost), then Cats (conservative this week again) (won well eventually)

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Tigers to win or to lose by less than 31 points(never a hope); Saints to win or to lose by less than 48 points(never in doubt); Suns to win by over 23 points(never looked likely)

 

 

Technical Analysis prior to R4, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 15 Apr 2016 (soooo late, sorry LAH – but I am previewing Sunday games)

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was just about prefect; everything was summed up as well as it could have been (2 weeks in a row – smiley face!!!)

This week, the two games to follow are Roos versus Dockers at Docklands & Pies against the Dees at the MCG. This all stems from the St Kilda presser when Alan Richardson mentioned the Saints / Port round 1 game going for 132 minutes; then both teams massively disappointed the following week; this, of course, occurred early in the brave new world of 90 rotations; last weekend, the Dees / Roos game in Hobart on Sunday went for 141 minutes; the Pies game went for 131 minutes and the Dockers one for 120 minutes; and both opponents (Pies and Dockers) have had the blowtorch applied to them during the week;  to me, it all adds up to both the Roos and Dees underperforming.

What would be more likely is for one to just barely underperform and for the other to do so significantly; some teams will come up well after such a long game and a trip on the plane; others won’t; the upshot of this is that I would be very confident on the Pies winning.  They are favourites but many will be tempted to go for the Dees.  In the other game, this analysis give the Dockers some hope; most have already pencilled in the win for the Roos; don’t be so hasty on this.

Finally, the Saints and Port in round 2 were at their worst in the first term; I will be interested to see if this trend continues.

 

Round 5, 2016 (all times are AET)  PAGE DOWN FOR R6

Tipping results for R4:  Supertipping: 7 out of 9 (fairly good) for a total of 26 and ranking improved sightly from 8,703 to 4,482 out of 42,690 tipsters (fairly good)

Streak: 1/2 – with Suns losing (frown) and Cats winning well enough; streak totally wiped to 0 and in bottom 56%

50/50: 1 out of 3 with the Saints getting close enough to the Hawks (a tick); but both the Suns and Tigers massively underperforming (cross); now at 4 out of 9 = 44% (= poor)

Early thoughts added 17 April

The ONLY cert appears to be the Dogs; early tips in other games are Hawks (but a danger game); Swans, Roos (but a danger game), Cats (but no certs), Saints, Dockers, Dees and Pies

Remember that the Gauntlet tipping comp on the AFL website begins this round
22 April 2016: URGENT: AFL website tipping GAUNTLET starts tonight. Tip 1 winner each week but cannot tip the same team twice; 1 loss and you are out; last person left wins.

Following is a chart of likelihood of each team winning from now until R21; the trick is that you probably don’t have to tip every team once; you can win if enough people drop out early enough.  The chart gives you suggested tips to take you through to the second last round (& tipping every team except Essendon); 10 = certain winner… down to 0 = no hope; have fun

 

round AD BR CA CO ES FR GE GC GW HA ME NO PO RI ST SY WB WC TIP POSS A POSS B
5 3 0 1 7 3 9 6 3 6 7 6 7 4 4 4 7 10 3 WB FR
6 7 2 7 2 3 3 7 3 3 7 6 6 4 6 4 8 4 8 CA WC SY
7 3 2 3 7 0 7 6 7 3 7 3 7 8 3 3 10 7 4 PO SY WB
8 6 3 3 7 1 2 4 4 6 8 3 9 7 4 1 6 7 9 NO WC HA
9 5 2 1 3 2 8 7 5 5 6 8 9 5 2 8 4 5 5 ME ST NO
10 7 1 2 3 1 5 8 2 3 9 5 4 5 9 5 6 7 8 GE HA WC
11 8 3 7 6 0 10 7 3 3 7 3 7 4 3 2 7 6 4 FR AD CA
12 3 3 3 4 0 7 4 3 4 10 6 6 5 7 7 6 5 7 HA ST RI
13 3 2 7 4 8 5 2 5 3 8 6 7 GW SY
14 6 2 1 5 5 7 1 9 9 4 8 3 RI GW HA
15 5 3 7 0 7 5 7 3 3 7 3 10 CO WC PO
16 7 2 3 3 2 5 5 8 7 6 5 3 4 3 8 5 7 7 ST GC WB
17 7 4 3 3 2 7 3 4 6 4 6 7 3 8 4 6 6 7 WC RI AD
18 3 6 1 3 4 3 7 7 4 7 2 7 6 3 3 9 7 8 SY ES WB
19 10 4 0 5 0 6 5 3 7 10 7 8 6 3 2 4 5 5 AD ME AD
20 9 1 3 4 1 4 9 7 3 8 2 6 2 6 7 8 4 6 GC GE AD
21 3 6 4 3 2 7 6 8 6 5 3 5 7 4 3 7 7 4 BR ES PO

Based on these quick and rough figures only (and it is very hard to predict winners or probability of winners 3, 4 or 5 etc weeks out) the top 4 would be Hawks, North, Swans and Eagles – followed closely by Dogs, Cats and Crows; that leaves Suns, Giants, Port, Dockers and Dees ro fight for the last spot in the 8. 

 

Round 5, 2016

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 HAW ADEL MCG  HAW  13  HIGH  A chance
2 SYD WCE SCG  SYD  14  HIGH  A chance
3 GCS NMFC GLD CST  NMFC  10  EXTREME  A chance
4 WBD BRIS DCKLNDS  WBD  50  HIGH  No hope
5 PORT GEEL ADEL  GEEL  2  EXTREME  A chance
6 STK GWS DCKLNDS  GWS  9  EXTREME  A chance
7 FREO CARL SUBI  FREO  29  HIGH  A tiny chance
8 MELB RICH MCG  MELB  11  EXTREME  A chance
9 COLL ESS MCG  COLL  17  EXTREME  A small chance

 

ROUND 5

 

 

Hawthorn v Adelaide at MCG Friday April 22 (7.50pm)
The Hawks have fallen over the line in R3&4 after a meritorious R2 GF replay win; they look a bit better with Gibson and Hill back in (Schoenmakers was considered a chance but now his return has been delayed); Hill may be underdone, but Hodge will be improved by the run last week; the Crows have been on a bit of a roll after their narrow loss to the Roos in R1; they will see this as a god time (perhaps – hopefully not a week or so too late) to play the Hawks; Hawthorn is not as invincible as in 2015, but their team is beginning to look a little more settled now; Brad Crouch was considered a chance to return but didn’t make it back; still, the Crows seem a little underrated; Hawks by 13 points but not certs 

Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 13 points and they won by 3; analysis was fair – given that some had tipped the Hawks as virtual certs; but the poor bit of the analysis was missing the call of EXTREME variance; the scoring trend of Crows up 4 goals then Hawks lead, then Crows lead 15 pts late in the game and then lose is EXTREME; the INS for both sides (Cameron for Crows; Gibson and Hill for Hawks) produced just average numbers; maybe the Hawks are getting worn down a bit by all these close finishes – but they still fought back well to win in the end; do top teams “win the close ones”? Well, at this time last year, the Hawks were losing these type of games

 

 

Sydney Swans v West Coast Eagles at SCG Saturday April 23 (1.40pm)
The Swans played in a ripped game last week – while the Eagles were cruising early against Richmond.  The Swans will be tipped for the following reasons: A:- home ground; B:- the Eagles were much better in 1H last week than 2H; that’s a small negative sign leading into a tough match against the Swans; C:- the Eagles had a few doubtful players with soreness last week; not sure if all will be 100% this week – and Wellingham is definitely underdone; D:- Sinclair back in for the Swans and Lycett out for the Eagles (the Lycett / Nicnat combination has worked well this year); but all these don’t equate to a cert tip; (Josh Kennedy of Sydney had a leg problem at training Friday morning but has not yet been rules out; Eagles Josh Kennedy is fine at this stage); Swans by 14 points

Post match review: Swans were tipped by 14 points and they won by 39; analysis was fairly good here; the experts were tipping the Swans by only a goal; it is noted that Jetta was just average against his old side; point B above probably helped the Swans draw away late in the contest; and the absence of Lycett may have been a negative on the day; perhaps tipping the margin at 14 pts given the points above was a bit wimpy, but generally happy

 

Gold Coast Suns v North Melbourne at GLD CST Saturday April 23 (4.35pm) The omission of Nicholls (126 SC points last week) for Currie (not listed in the best in the NEAFL last week) is a huge shock; Currie was an understudy to Goldstein at the Roos; this swap makes the game an EXTREME variance game; not sure what to make of it; is it a ruse?   it appears that the Suns relaxed a bit against the Lions last week – and maybe didn’t play so well after the Steven May hit; it is unclear whether that “loss that they had to have” will be a benefit to them this week or the start of a run of poor form; with the longer injury list and the game being played in the twilight (when humidity may not be that high), the Roos will be tipped.  But the Sunday game vs Dockers may have taken something out of them; Roos by 10 points

Post match review: Roos were tipped by 10 points and they won by 38; analysis was just fair; the Roos didn’t seem too worried by playing the Sunday game last week (which Ross Lyon said was a tough game); and the Currie / Goldstein match-up should’ve been marked as more of a positive; the other thing not given enough focus was the North tall forwards with Thompson and May both out for the Suns; it also appears that the Suns have entered a down time after coming in to the Q clash overconfident; upcoming matches against Cats away and then Dees at home can test this theory; FYI: Nicholls DID play NEAFL on the weekend without starring; there still may be some concern that he is not 100%; the Roos really look the goods

 

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions at Docklands Saturday April 23  (7.25pm)
The dogs are the only real cert of the week; the win by Brisbane last week and the injuries t the Dogs should help guard against complacency; Wood and Campbell back for the Dogs is a plus – helping cover for injuries in recent times; the Lions get back Rockliff; it appears that the Lions – given a 0-8 start to the year by most scribes – really set themselves for the Q clash last weekend; it is likely that they could underperform a bit this week: some query of how well Stefan Martin will play this week after copping the big hit last week; Dogs by 50 points and certs of the week
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 50 points and they won by 53; analysis was just about perfect… but the path to a correct tip was marked by injuries to Christensen and Cutler for the Dogs; Green was injured late; the Dogs lost Suckling; looking at this, one would say that the Dogs were lucky to win by so much; but, then again, they won SC scores 1858 to 1442; as hinted above, Martin struggled compared to his own lofty standards; the Dogs were correctly tipped as certs of the week

 

Port Adelaide v Geelong at Adelaide Oval Saturday April 23 (7.40pm)
See also Penny’s comments below
This game revolves around assessing the form improvement of both teams from their R4 matches; Port was really awful last weekend after a 9 day break from the win over Essendon; teams that do poorly after that 9 day break tend to have a higher than normal variance of performance the third week; maybe it’s the balance between “hitting back hard” and losing confidence; the Cats seem to have left some petrol in the tank after resting a player or two for the Bombers game.  Based purely on each team’s performance against the Dons, Port would be favourite; but they were so poor against the Giants that it would be hard to get enthused about tipping them this week; Wingard and Hartlett (INS R4) yielded just average numbers – and a return to top form from them would help.  The jury is still out on the Cats as well – despite easily beating the Hawks and being 3&1; the form of Dangerfield back at Adelaide will be of interest; another EXTREME variance game and the Cats by 2 points (it was 9 points until Penny’s article appeared and was perused)
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 2 points and they won by 48; analysis was 46 points off; but the positive was the EXTREME variance call; the Cats went from 4 goals down at QT to an 8 goal win; there was a melee at QT and Port was terrible from then on; but it cannot be blamed on one scuffle; the president got involved during the week about the poor showing against the Giants; 1Q seemed to be a savage reaction to the previous week’s belting; but the capitulation since seemed to show that the team has big problems and now they appear to have lost confidence; Cockatoo looks to have “arrived” for Geelong

 

 

St Kilda v GWS Giants at Docklands Sunday April 24 (1.10pm)
The Giants had huge win last week over Port last weekend; Port suffered fro a 9 day break and an easy win over the Dons on a Friday night; this – coupled with the dubious history of Suns and Giants after momentous wins – makes this another EXTREME variance game; another contributing factor is the fact that the Saints have twice in a row played teams the week after they have virtually won with a kick on the siren (well – emotional wins, anyway); the INS for the Saints look good – even though only on the 7 man IC at this stage; there may be some doubt on Cameron firing first up for the Giants; but, then again, they have had a makeshift tall forward setup so far this year with both he and       McCarthy missing.

Giants by 9 points
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 9 points and they won by 47; analysis was okay – mainly because the variance was labelled EXTREME; a score of about 40 points outside the generally expected result justifies this; maybe the narrow loss to the Hawks last weekend took the steam out of the Saints; Montagna and Hickey were restricted to some extent by injuries; have the Giants arrived as a finals threat? We will know soon.

 

Fremantle v Carlton at Subiaco Oval Sunday April 24 (4.10pm)
The Blues fans are the happiest Carlton 0-4 fans ever!  And they will still be happy after a likely competitive loss here; The most optimistic of Blues fans may have penciled this in as a loss when the fixture came out last year. With both sides being winless – and the Blues showing some fight at times – this game now looms as a possible upset.
Ross Lyon has put the heat on his players to perform; they really just need 4 points; then the pressure will lift off and they may have a sneaky chance to beat the Crows at the right time (after the Crows have played the Hawks); first they need to win this one; and the Blues would see the Dockers as vulnerable; Carlton’s form in the west has been okay in recent times – including a 5-point loss to Freo in 2014; a win over Freo in 2013 and a win over the Eagles in 2013 (2015 wasn’t great).

Dockers by 29 points and almost certs
Post match review: Dockers were tipped by 29 points but the Blues won by 4; analysis was not that great; the one positive was that the Dockers were NOT tipped as certs (despite the “cert” thing below – which was only done due to the low risk); of course, things went well for the Blues – with Fyfe, Ballantyne and Johnson all getting injured on the day for Freo; on the other side, Murphy played well – despite getting 12 stitches in his head and wearing a helmet; the Dockers also butchered a few chances; but, it was 17 vs 18 after all; all things being equal, the Dockers would have won; but the 2015 Dockers would’ve found a way to win under these circumstances at home against bottom four opposition.  Maybe the variance was just in the EXTREME range (in terms of margin and game trend)

 

Melbourne v Richmond at MCG Sunday April 24 (7.10pm)
See also Penny’s comments below
The Tigers have named Maric (on 7 man IC bench) and Deledio to come back in; but Deledio must pass a fitness test; even with a pass, he is unlikely to be 100% fit; then there are also tests for Hampson (dropped out Friday – replaced in 25 squad by Townsend) and Astbury – with Dylan Grimes of Richmond still missing; the Tigers get flogged in the west last Friday night and STILL they are favourites.

The lack of favouritism is a blessing for the Dees – who often buckle under the strain of expectation.  Garlett will be tested Friday and is no cert to play; Vince comes back – and the Dees look to be flying; and teams like Melbourne (lowly previous year – exceeding expectations early) tend to hold their form until at least R5 or 6; the other concern about getting too gung-ho on the Dees is that maybe the Pies were so woeful last week that they made Melbourne look good.

Yet another EXTREME variance game – the Dees by 11 points
Post match review: Dees were tipped by 11 points and they won by 33; analysis was excellent – with most tipsters undecided or just favouring Richmond; the reason so many people went for the Tigers was probably the experience of being burnt by Melbourne in recent times; but the Dees have truly improved now; the comment above about them holding their form was correct; however, the scroing trend and end result was not quite EXTREME; not helping the Tigers was the withdrawal of Deledio pre-game (and the Tigers STILL remained favourites!!!); and an injury to Riewoldt; Melbourne’s worst SC scorer was Frost with 45; the Tigers had Rioli, Lambert, Menadue, Morris, Corey Ellis and Batchelor all score below that; you cannot win too often when that occurs

 

 

Collingwood v Essendon at MCG Monday April 25  (3.20pm)
It is a little hard to get excited about the Pies; they have a long injury list – with tests on Cloke, Reid and Sinclair before they are okay to play (Cloke considered likely).  Thi
s the grand final for the Bombers.  They obviously won’t play finals, so this is their best chance to impress on a big stage and in front of a massive crowd;  and they have caught the Pies at a vulnerable time. Collingwood has some regular players underperforming.  Perhaps the regulars are carrying injuries and would be rested had the “unplayable” injury list been shorter. 

Collingwood simply HAS TO win this one of they are to progress up the ladder towards an unlikely top 8 position. Their sole win against the Tigers came with the last kick (or almost).  That’s why NOT to tip the Pies.

The Bombers are still hard to assess; they were competitive against the Cats for most of the game; but maybe this was a false lead – with Geelong resting Enright and maybe just doing enough to ensure the win.  All these nagging doubts about both teams makes this an EXTREME variance game; don’t forget to watch out for late changes.

Pies by 17 points but not certs
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 17 points and they won by 69; analysis was pretty good here, despite the Pies actually being certs half way through 1Q; the reason: the right team was tipped and the variance was, indeed, EXTREME.  Apparently, the Magpie players had a “meeting” during the week prior to the ANZAC Day game; whatever they talked about, it helped; Sinclair didn’t get up for the game and was replaced by Maynard; Cloke was omitted on Saturday (maybe a good decision for both he and the team in the long run); a good story about Cox – kicking the first goal and doing well; the Pies have snapped a 2 game losing streak; the way the media has been on the Magpie story, it feels like they have lost about 10 in a row; the Bombers fought it out late, but blew it early;  it appears that the Cats took it easy against Essendon (with Geelong outperforming expectations this week and Essendon underperforming)

 

CERTS: Dogs are the only cert (never in doubt after QT), but with a current streak of zero, will add the slightly risky Dockers; a risk if you are currently sitting on a  large streak (it was a risk that back-fired!; hopefully those on a long winning streak took heed!)

GAUNTLET (see above): Dogs (always in control)

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Suns to win or lose b less than 19 (blown away 2H); Dogs to win by more than 45 (just barely got there); Dees to win or to lose by less than 5 (always looked likely)

 

Technical Analysis prior to R5, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 23 Apr 2016 (soooo late, sorry LAH – but I am previewing Sunday games)

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: well, I think I got ahead of myself; look up “Come a gutzer” on the internet and you may find my photo!  The sample size was small for the extended minutes of games and I not think that either: A- it only works R1-2; or B- the Dees and Roos heard about the Saints issues and adjusted their loads accordingly

This week, the two games to follow are Port versus Geelong in Adelaide. The reason for this is Port’s good win Friday night R3- followed by their dismal effort last Sunday.  Looking at teams that have won by 30+ points on a Friday night and then played Sunday (rounds 2-10) – most underperform IF their next game is on a Sunday.  the examples of this since 2011 are:
Hawks R7 2011 beat Port by 32 pts; then beat the Saints by 30 points (+3 = 3pts above expectation)
Blues R10 2011 beat Dees by 47 points; then beat Port by 62 pts (+34) Port had a bye the next week and dropped away with a 0 to 7 goal final term.

All teams since 2011 underperformed on the Sunday
2013 Dons beat Pies by 46 points then beat Giants by 39 points (-51 as they were tipped to win by 90 points over GWS)
2014 Tigers beat the Lions by 43 points then lost to the Hawks by 66 pts (-43)
2015 Eagles beat Blues by 69 points and then lost to Freo by 30 (-11)
2015 Dees beat Tigers by 32 points and then lost to Freo by 68 (-37)
2015 Cats beat Blues by 77 points and then lost to the Eagles by 56 (-39)
2016 Port best the Dons by 61 pts and then lost to the Giants by 86 (-85)

Sorry to be a bit laborious but here is the same data and including week 3 (3 rounds after the comfy Friday night win) with the green figure being how much they outperformed expectations (a plus) or underperformed (-)


Hawks R7 2011 beat Port by 32 pts; then beat the Saints by 30 points (+3 = 3pts above expectation) +49 (this was the famous “confiscate the players’ mobile phones game vs Swans
Blues R10 2011 beat Dees by 47 points; then beat Port by 62 pts (+34) Port had a bye the next week and dropped away with a 0 to 7 goal final term.+13

All teams since 2011 underperformed on the Sunday
2013 Dons beat Pies by 46 points then beat Giants by 39 points (-51 as they were tipped to win by 90 points over GWS)-20
2014 Tigers beat the Lions by 43 points then lost to the Hawks by 66 pts (-43)+24
2015 Eagles beat Blues by 69 points and then lost to Freo by 30 (-11)+37
2015 Dees beat Tigers by 32 points and then lost to Freo by 68 (-37)-7
2015 Cats beat Blues by 77 points and then lost to the Eagles by 56 (-39)+64
2016 Port best the Dons by 61 pts and then lost to the Giants by 86 (-85) ???
The signs are positive from these figures with teams averaging +20 in that 3rd week; Port need to overachieve by just under a goal in order to win.  I am tipping them to do that.

Next – a quick look at the Tigers versus Melbourne; they lost heavily on a Friday night and now play on a Sunday; I am quite keen on teams early in the season who have a Friday Night Shocker and then play on a 6, 7 or 8 day break; but teams who have to wait 9 days to redeem themselves have a mixed response; I would expect the Tigers to underperform on Sunday – especially as they are in a trough anyway – with bad losses rounds 2 and 3 following the round 4 debacle against the Eagles; I am tipping the Dees to win well.

Finally, I do NOT like picking hot favourites who are in a patch of awful form; such is the case for both the Dockers and Pies this weekend; they may well both win, but there is too much uncertainty about them to get too excited about their chances; tipping them is like buying a falling share; you feel great if you guessed the bottom of the share price, but can be downcast if it keeps plummeting.
Penny

 

Round 6, 2016 (all times are AET)  PAGE DOWN FOR R7

Tipping results for R5:  Supertipping: 8 out of 9 (very good) for a total of 34 and ranking improved from 4,482 to 2,928 out of 42,978 tipsters (good)

Streak: 1/2 – with Dogs winning easily and the risky tip Freo going down; streak totally wiped to 0 again and in bottom 59%

GAUNTLET: alive (the Dogs were not exactly a risky tip, it must be said); now 19,975 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive – with many not playing and a whole heap eliminated when the Dockers got rolled by the winless Blues in Perth

50/50: 1 out of 3 with Suns losing by too much (loss); Dogs winning by enough (win) & Dees winning (win); now at 5 out of 10 = 50% (= average)

 

Early thoughts for R6: this looks a bit tricky at first glance; Sydney, Carlton and the Crows appear to be the certs (without a great deal of careful thought);  Roos, Dees, Hawks, Cats, Eagles are all expected be favourites – Dees (don’t like Docklands much) and Hawks (lost to GWS in 2015) may be the more shaky ones perhaps; Tigers and Port are both really struggling, but Tigers are the early tip.

 

Round 6, 2016

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 NMFC WBD DCKLNDS NMFC  8  HIGH   No real outsider here
2 MELB STK DCKLNDS  MELB  15  EXTREME   No real outsider here
3 ADEL FREO ADEL  ADEL  42  HIGH   No hope
4 GWS HAW HMBSH  GWS  12  EXTREME   No real outsider here
5 GEEL GCS GEEL  GEEL  27  HIGH   A tiny hope
6 RICH PORT MCG  RICH  16  EXTREME    A chance
7 BRIS SYD GABBA  SYD  35  HIGH    No hope
8 CARL ESS MCG  CARL  25  HIGH    A tiny hope
9 WCE COLL SUBI  WCE  31  EXTREME    A tiny hope

 

ROUND 6

 

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs at Docklands Friday April 29 (7.50pm)
The main reason for tipping the Roos is greater stability; the Dogs keep losing players; they do have the benefit of less travel recently, however.  Another thing to consider is that the Lions had plenty of problems last week against the Dogs; they were 2 men down before HT (Christensen & Cutler) – while Martin played below his best after the previous week’s heavy knock; the Dogs only lost Suckling – yet another defender to go down for them. David King (on SEN pure footy – 4pm on Thursdays) said a blow-out was quite possible – due to the conflicting styles of play of the teams; for this reason the variance was labelled as EXTREME on Thursday, but changed to HIGH on Friday after further thought.  Roos by 8 points
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 17 points and they won by 69; analysis was pretty good here & HIGH was the correct level of variance to assign to this game; the lack of a SBS (Settled Back Six) counted against the Dogs; the low scores was a shock

 

Melbourne v St Kilda at Docklands Saturday April 30 (1.45pm)
This is EXTREME variance because it is uncertain how the Saints will bounce back from their bad loss last week to the Giants; they played 2 x teams off virtual last kick wins the weeks prior (Collingwood R3 and Hawks R4); it is difficult to assess their form this year; after R12, all will be clearer (with R7 vs the Roos, then Eagles away, then Dons and Dockers in Melbourne, Crows away and then the Blues); if they are going reasonably well, they should beat Essendon, Freo& Carlton.

The Dees are now favourites again after their first back to back wins since 2011 (starting outsiders in both games).  The question is – will this breakthrough cause them to remain at that high level & beyond?; or will they fall back short term after such a monumental achievement (given their poor form over that period)?  Petracca has big wraps on him and his long-awaited debut is now eminent (as Mal Prop would say). It is likely that he will begin well – having been given sufficient VFL time.

The key is probably how the Dees come up after “back to back” and as favourites; generally, teams like this hold their early season form; Dees by 15 points but not certs
Post match review: Dees were tipped by 15 points but the Saints won by 39; analysis was a fair way off here; the poor part was not considering the long winning run the Saints now have over the Dees (13 games back to 2006); the sole positive was that the game was marked as an EXTREME variance game and the Dees still have trouble winning as favourites (having been outsiders in the recent back to back wins); great to see Hogan and Riewoldt top the SC scores for their teams; the Dees were restricted with Salem getting concussed, but also had a lot of players with very low SC scores – 6 of them scored less than the lowest Saints player.  Petracca was fair in his debut.

 

Adelaide v Fremantle at Adelaide Oval Saturday April 30 (2.10pm)
The Dockers are probably fielding their worst team for some time this weekend (excluding R23 matches in recent times); they will be missing Sandilands, Fyfe, Johnson…maybe Ballantyne as well (injured last week and names this week); the fact that the club has not mentioned him at all so far is a bad sign; watch for either a late withdrawal or, even worse, he plays and struggles.  The Dockers problem is the quality of players missing more so than the quantity.

The only way for the Crows to lose this one is via complacency; but it is hard to imagine them “basking in the glory of a close loss to the Hawks” when they were 15 pts up late in the last term and then lost.  If anything, it will stiffen their resolve.  Just a short explanatory note about teams falling away late in the game against top opposition: it is generally a very bad sign VERY early in the season when a team does this and loses by 5+ goals; not so when it is R5 and the loss is a few points; this type of loss is more likely to strengthen resolve than to weaken it.
Of course, the horrible loss may have stung Freo into action; but an honourable loss may be the best they can muster.  Crows by 42 points and CERTS of the week
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 42 points and they won by 33; analysis was acceptable; not a great deal to say about this game; the Dockers did a little better than expected; maybe they lifted in the absence of Fyfe; the Crows were correctly labelled as certs

 

GWS Giants v Hawthorn at Homebush Saturday April 30 (4.35pm)
Rain may fall on the day in Sydney; check forecasts closer to game time; The Hawks are teetering towards a loss – and maybe the emotional “come from behind late” win last week will be an energy-sapper.  One positive for the Hawks is that they are hardly likely to underestimate their opponents. One could have made a case for this in R6, 2015 when the Giants stormed home to win; Chris Fagan virtually said as much on the Hawks website this week at the end of the injury report; the comment was a genuine observation, but may be received as an insult up at GWS; this week, the Hawks will remember that loss and GWS has been smashing teams in recent weeks.  The Hawks have more injury troubles; Schoenmakers still hasn’t made it back, while Spangher is only just back in the VFL; Hill copped an injury last week, but trained well this week and looks certain to be okay.  It may be that the Giants have an absolute shocker this week – given the challenge and interest in the game (a la Hawks against Dons in the some early 2000s games when they were expected to do well and got smashed); this factor makes the variance EXTREME; Giants by 12 points in an upset
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 12 points and they won by 75; analysis was good for being 63 points off; firstly, the right team was tipped; next, the variance was EXTREME (in the write-up, but not above in the table; sorry!); it appears that the Hawks had a downer after their run of 3 narrow (but energy-sapping) wins; they also had Hodge sore, Frawley concussed by his team mate and Sicily seemingly hit the wall after early season heroics; Lewis and Smith scored very low numbers; the Giants lost Griffen before the game (replaced by Haynes), but were still unstoppable

 

Richmond v Port Adelaide at MCG Saturday April 30 (7.25pm)
Ahhh, trouble!  Last week, many wrote “not to be tipped” alongside two teams – Port and Richmond; the problem is that they play each other this week, and that forces a decision of sorts; it’s a good game to avoid if you can (and this is NOT a good game to use for the GAUNTLET tipping on the AFL website); but Port’s outs (Wingard and Robbie Gray injured, with Lobbe dropped for Howard) make it an easy decision as far as tipping goes – pick Richmond; but the Tigers are far from being certs.  This game has EXTREME variance written all over it (although it could be an AFL version of a soccer nil-all draw); if one team can establish a decent break, they may go right on with the job (while their opponents loses heart); the talk during the week is that Port have not been as good after losing Phil Walsh (there early days and for 1 year in 2014) and Alan Richardson  (there in 2013); Polec is of interest; his SC scores have been (from R1): 60, 8, 123, 54, SANFL (where he did well) and now back in; the inconsistency has been left unexplained; there has been rumours of division in the club and they played like it last weekend – winning 1Q by 4 goals and losing the rest of the game by 12 goals.

Riewoldt must be in some doubt after his ankle injury last week; the return on Deledio (smart NOT to play him last weekend probably) and Hampson (to help out an underdone Maric) is a bonus; the Tigers by 16 points but not certs.
Post match review: Tigers were tipped by 16 points but Port won by 35; analysis was so-so; it’s never good to tip a loser, but almost all tipsters were swayed once they saw the OUTS for Port of Wingard and Robbie Gray; the positive was the EXTREME variance call (because both sides are so unreliable); McIntosh was a late withdrawal for the Tigers – replaced by Castagna; Lambert copped a shocking injury and Maric is really struggling; Port’s ins all did well – especially Polec; Cotchin played out the game with a fractured cheek bone; and Port’s bottom 6 were much better than Richmond’s

 

Geelong v Gold Coast Suns at Geel Saturday April 30 (7.25pm)
The Suns were humming along early in the season – with wins over the Dons, Dockers and Blues.  The win away against Fremantle seemed to give them real credibility; but now the Dockers are 0-5, the Blues and Dons are both 1-4; in R4 the Suns lost to the otherwise winless Lions and then were comfortably beaten at home by the Roos.  They have missed key midfielders O’Meara and Swallow all year; then more recently key defenders Thompson and May (the latter self-inflicted); and now also they have lost Rischitelli and Saad.
Their bubble has truly burst and their losing streak looks set to continue this week; however, maybe the scribes have got a bit too carried away with how well Geelong are going; their coach isn’t really sure at present; their last three matches against the Lions, Dons and an underperforming Port team may not be such a great guide.

Gazza returns again to play against his old side – and against his ex Suns ruckman Smith; Cats – who need to win this one to convince Chris Scott – by 27 points and almost, but not, certs.
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 27 points and they won by 120; analysis was miles off and not that great; more was expected of the Suns but they were uncompetitive from mid 2Q onwards; they had 8 players with under 10 possessions (Cats had 2) and lost McKenzie early to injury; the Cats had 2 late withdrawals (Mackie and Stanley out for Lang and Vardy); Lang excelled while Vardy was fair; the Cats took full advantage of the Suns – who will be due to have a “team meeting” soon.

 

Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans at Gabba Sunday May 1 (1.10pm)
The Lions were tipped by many to be winless after 8 rounds.  It appears that they set themselves for their most likely win – in the Q-clash – and got the chocolates; expect them now to be off the boil a bit and to be no real chance; they have a sizable injury list and are less highly rated than the Swans.  It is possible that the fact that they were UP for the Q clash in R4 and were not expected to win any games until R9 may work against them; they may be in a trough now and peak in R9-ish (based on the heavy / light 4 week training blocks technique that some teams employ); Christensen is considered likely to play – he needs to pass a concussion test, but early signs are good; Bastinac may still need a Saturday test

Aliir makes his debut for the Swans after experiencing life as a refugee; Cunningham may require a fitness test before flying north; this game is at 1.10pm and suits travelling sides at a time when the humidity is generally low-ish.  Swans by 35 points and certs
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 35 points and they won by 3; analysis was a long way off; sorry for tipping them as certs when they maybe could’ve / should’ve lost the game; they brought a stretcher onto the ground late in the contest while the Lions were deep in attack; anyway, the wrong call was that the Lions may be on a downer; the Swans were hampered somewhat by having Aliir as a first gamer in defence and ALSO losing Smith before the game (replaced by Jones); the game was probably EXTREME variance due to the wild momentum swing early on

 

Carlton v Essendon at MCG Sunday May 1 (3.20pm)
Rain in large volume is likely on Sunday – maybe more so prior to the game.
See Penny’s article below (to be added Friday)
The Blues had been honest without winning under new coach Bolton, but finally broke through away against Freo; the win was a reward for effort more than a confirmation of huge improvement; Freo lost key players during the match and also butchered some chances; this game was a “last kick of the day” affair, but this time the loser was 10 pts down – so the shot only changed percentage.

The Dons had an Absolute Shocker of a first half against Collingwood on Monday; they have ranged from winners (surprisingly – over the Dees in R2) to competitive (versus Cats) to blown away early (Suns, Port and Pies); at this stage, the Dees game will be put down to an aberration and the Cats seemed to be easing through that game (feeling sure they were gong to win) while preparing for the trip to play Port.

There is no way the Blues can afford to take this one easy; much of the positive vibe from beating Freo will be wiped if they lose this one

The Blues appear to be much better than Essendon and should win well
Post match review: Blues were tipped by 25 points and they won by 15; analysis was fair; the Blues lost Cripps before the game (replaced by White) and the Dons lost Baguley on Saturday; it was expected that the Blues would play with renewed vim after the win in the west; but they were patchy at best; the cert call below was marginal and so it proved to be; they didn’t really play like certs; good to see Daisy Thomas back to form

 

West Coast Eagles v Collingwood at Subiaco Oval Sunday May 1 (4.40pm)
The Eagles lost by heaps and the Pies won by heaps last week; but now the Eagles are monstrous favourites; they should win, but the experts are a bit too confident with their 8 goal plus margin; the Eagles aren’t going that good and the Pies aren’t really that bad; having said that, it is pretty hard to see the pies winning at the Eagles favourite venue; the 2 days extra rest gives Priddis a chance to improve after his first game back from injury; ex-Pie Wellingham will be better for the run and Lycett’s return balances them out nicely.

Adams may be in doubt for Collingwood; watch for late changes

There is a small chance that the Pies may carry on their momentum from last weekend; but their lacklustre finish to the game slightly goes against them in this regard; how Cox (the Collingwood player, that is) goes second up in the west will be interesting; the uncertainty about both teams at present (neither have been totally convincing) will cause this to be an EXTREME variance game; Eagles by 31 and almost certs
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 31 points and they won by 62 (double); analysis was just so-so; the Pies were expected to put up more of a fight, but struggled; maybe the 6 day break and the trip to Perth caused them to struggle late; The Eagles lost Yeo (replaced by Hutchings); the Pies had Langdon injured 3Q and Sinclair off in 4Q for concusson; this may have contributed to their slowdown; the EXTREME variance call was also incorrect.

 

CERTS: Crows (never in doubt), then Swans (fell over the line), Blues will be also named as certs –  but they are “VALUE” certs rather than absolute certs (got over the line); this website (currently on a run of zero CERTS) can afford to do this – but the thrill-seekers on a big run of certs may also give it a go

GAUNTLET (see above): Blues (they succedded) – with Crows being bigger certs, but keen to get Carlton over and done with while their form is good

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Roos by more than 5 points (right); Dees by over a goal (wrong); Giants to win (win); Suns to win or to lose by less than 47 points (wrong); Blues to win by over 21 points (wrong); Pies to win or to lose by less than 48 points (wrong)

 

Technical Analysis prior to R6, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 29 Apr 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was all over the place; I got Port wrong; they played like a share that had a “dead cat bounce”. They were great in the first term; I was patting myself on the back at that stage; then they fell away horribly; but the Dees won well as I predicted; finally, the warning about Dockers and Pies was worth giving (Longggey would have benefited from my advice) – because the Dockers got rolled (although hampered by injuries on the day)

This week, the game is Blues and Bombers.Much to my surprise, the Bombers are given some chance; the Blues snapped a 4 game losing streak (or 6 if you count 2015) when they won narrowly against the Dockers; it was a shocker of a game and won’t be used i the highlights reel; but the win will give the Blues the boost they need; indeed, a small win is better than a big one once the losing streak reaches 4.  In 2011 until 2015, the team that break a 4+ game losing streak with a small win (3 goals or less) outperforms expectations by 19 points the following week; if you only look at bottom teams (eg Carlton), it is down to 15 points; there were 12 bottom teams in this situation in this time; 4 of them underperformed and 8 exceeded expectations; looking at the underperformers: – one was Port, but they beat Richmond prior to the Tigers going to the bye; this sort of explains why port bucked the trend the following – maybe the win over Richmond wasn’t as worthy as it looked; the only other team to do really poorly was the Suns; they beat Collingwood narrowly and then got flogged by the Blues the next week in 2013; the Blues were going okay then and the Gold Coast win over the Pies was its biggest win of its short life; so this could be considered an anomaly; removing these two anomalies; then the teams exceed expectations by an average of 24 points – with the only underperformers going worse by 2 and 8 points;  if this trend holds up, then the Blues will be certs;  these teams usually do well mid game; this makes sense – since the Bombers will be desperate and UP early to avoid being blown away in the first term; but then the Blues should exert their authority on the contest

 

Round 7, 2016 (all times are AET) 

Tipping results for R6:  Supertipping: 7 out of 9 (very good) for a total of 41 and ranking improved from 2,928 to 1,944 out of 42,978 tipsters (good)

Streak: 3/3 – with Crows winning easily; Swans very lucky and the Blues winning; streak back up to 3, but ranked 13,407th still in bottom 58%

GAUNTLET: alive (the Blues won unimpressively, but won); now down from 19,975 to 8,862 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive – a surprising number of casualties in the second week – maybe going for Hawks or Dees – or forgetting to enter the tip!

50/50: 2 out of 6 with Giants and Roos being the wins, while Suns and Pies were beaten by too much; and Blues didn’t win well enough & Dees didn’t win at all!; now at 7 out of 16 = 43% (= poor)

 

 

Early thoughts for R7: there appear to be some certs here – with Swans, Hawks, Roos and Port looking good to win; Cats, Giants & Dees;
Pies vs Blues is a tough one and so is Dogs vs Crows

Round 7, 2016

 ALL TIPS THURSDAY PM SUBJECT TO CHANGE (+ MORE COMMENTS ALSO) FRIDAYAFTERNOON

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 RICH HAW MCG  HAW  20  HIGH   a small hope
2 COLL CARL MCG  COLL  12  EXTREME   a small hope
3 GEEL WCE GEEL  GEEL  18  HIGH   a small hope
4 SYD ESS HMBSH  SYD  58  HIGH   no hope at all
5 GCS MELB GLD CST  MELB  8  EXTREME   no outsider
6 WBD ADEL DCKLNDS  WBD  9  EXTREME   no outsider
7 FREO GWS SUBI  GWS  11  EXTREME   a small hope
8 STK NMFC DCKLNDS  NMFC  18  HIGH   a small hope
9 PORT BRIS ADEL  PORT  21  EXTREME   a small hope

 

Richmond v Hawthorn at MCG Friday May 6  (7.50pm)
The Hawks are going better now than this time last year…right?  They are 4 & 2 now – compared to 3 & 3 then; but last year’s percentage was 136 and now it is 92; quite clearly they are going worse (even allowing for a tougher draw this year in R1-6); it’s because they are missing big blokes; Lake and red vest Hale are gone; Roughie hasn’t played; Schoenmakers and Spangher have had injuries; Ceglar has had a few injuries in 2016 and tall recruit Fitzpatrick has had knee problems. Hodge going out doesn’t help either

Most expect the Hawks to hit back hard – and they may do so; but it is hard to get too excited about a team that just got totally belted.  They travel off a 6 day break, but it was only to Sydney and they had an 8 day break prior to that; the Tigers have gone 6 & 6 while staying in Melbourne; this slightly works in the favour of the Hawks

But, then again, they do play the Tigers – who just lost Cotchin and Lambert – while the underdone Maric has been dropped; an in form Griffiths (same height and weight and among the best in the VFL last week) will be a better option in the short term; and it’s not like he’s playing against a duo of Nicnat and Goldstein or anything.

The Giants had a brainwave last week – tagging Mitchell; what a great idea? Will the Tigers follow suit (it’s an easier call – with Hodge out); and Lewis has been poor by his lofty standards recently; his form will be watched with interest.

The advice is not to tip the Hawks as certs – tempting as it may be; the Tigers may be totally shot in terms of confidence; but, more likely, they are just in a lull – and may come out of it some time soon.

Of course the Hawks will be tipped; but not as certs and by a modest 20 points
(from AFL.com: Lovell’s parents flew to Melbourne today Friday!!!)  Late breaking news; Mitchell out; Lovell in; amended tip would be 16 points.
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 20/16 points (see above) and they won by 46; analysis was just average; as mentioned above, the Hawks lost Mitchell on Friday; the Hawks won this because their worst  few were far better than the Tigers’ bottom scorers; O’Brien scored 50 SC pts for Hawthorn, while the Tigers had 7 under that score; another thing wrong was that this WAS an EXTREME variance game – with the Hawks 15ps up at hT; then trailing in 3Q before pulling away to win big in 4Q

 

 

 

 

ALL TIPS THURSDAY PM SUBJECT TO CHANGE (+ MORE COMMENTS ALSO) FRIDAYAFTERNOON

Collingwood v Carlton at MCG Saturday May 7 (1.45pm)
See Penny’s preview below.  Penny is a bit bullish, but also includes the one concern in tipping the Pies: their 2 x 6 day break and trip to Perth; they still don’t get Adams & Varcoe back from injury; and Goldsack also got injured in the VFL.

But the Blues also have troubles. Walker is back for his first game since R1 and may be a risk; Boekhorst is just back in the VFL after injury; and Jamison was probably going to play this week but was injured in the VFL last week and is an emergency (allegedly may come in if Cloke plays – in which case both might underperform).

The concerns about both teams make this an EXTREME variance game – the Pies by 12 points but not certs
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 12 points but the Blues won by 15; analysis was poor; the injury problems of the Pies and the 2 x 6 days breaks + the Collingwood trip to Perth last week were not given enough weight.  Collingwood’s inclusion Aish & Crocker didn’t trouble the statisticians much; Broomhead got injured and Reid played through an injury.  For the Blues, Jamison did come in as a late replacement for White & underperformed; Walker also came in first up from a lengthy break and produced low numbers; Casboult kicked 3:1; the game just failed to live up to the EXTREME variance prediction

 

Geelong v West Coast Eagles at Simonds Stadium Saturday May 7  (2.10pm)
Much was made of the Eagles not winning away since R16 last year; true! In that time (beginning at the start), they played Suns (a draw), Crows (got thrashed), then the Grand Final (46 pt loss); this year it has been a GF replay loss in every respect to the Hawks and a 39 point loss to the Swans.  Not great form, but not bottom 4 material either; prior to R16 last year, they lost away to the Roos by 10 points in R10 and then had good away wins over Richmond (20 pts) and the Dees (54 points). The AFL website has a pic of a young Priddis playing in his first win – down at Geelong; it was their last win at the ground back in 2006; they have lost the last 5; but the Cats were the higher rated team for most of those contests.  Wellingham may be better for last week’s run, but Darling copped a late knock; not sure how he will be this week

In Geelong’s last 2 wins, they drew away after QT. Last week’s win was ridiculously easy; it may have lulled them a bit; but they DO PLAY last year’s GF team; so it’s hard to imagine them being totally caught off guard.  McCarthy and Guthrie copped knocks last week, so not sure how they will butter up this time. The Cats will be tipped – and by just more than the experts at a margin of 18 points; but they will not be tipped as certs
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 18 points and they won by 44; analysis was fair – most expertes were tipping a tighter contest than 18 points; but the tip was perhaps a bit woosie; the doubts remain on the Cats – even though they continue to exceed expectations; they were underestimated because their 2 recent opponents (Port and Suns) just looked so bad; Yeo came back from illness for the Eagles and underperformed; he should be excused for 1 bad game; dangerous forwards Le Cras and Jetta both were poor; the Cats lost McCarthy early, but it didn’t seem to trouble them; and Motlop stole the show

 

Sydney Swans v Essendon at ANZ Stadium Saturday May 7 (4.35pm)
The Swans are the certs of the week; and the only genuine certs; the Bombers are doing okay – considering their lot in life; but they will have no hope in winning this one; of interest is that they are resting 2 players (Parish and Langford) for this game – maybe a sign that they ave already conceded this one; next up is the Roos and then more winnable games against the Saints and Tigers; Grima is an interesting selection; he hasn’t played a senior game since 2014 at the Roos but has been in the best in the VFL recently; just getting back to play is a “win” for him.

Now to the Swans – they would see this as an easy kill prior to the Friday night Hawks game; as such the predicted 12 goal margin could be a bit much; it is possible, but they may also choose to rest some of the stars / sore players late in the contest; Sinclair has bone bruising from last week and may be in doubt; Smith is an inclusion but may also be in doubt; watch the late news on these players.

While the Swans are CERTS of the WEEK, there is doubt on the margin; all they want is a “W” for this game; Swans by 58 points
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 58 points and they won by 73; analysis was VERY POOR; mainly due to the fact that the Swans actually play the Hawks in R9, not next week in R8; had this error not been made, then the thought of them dropping off late would have been downplayed; aside from that, they were correctly tipped as the CERTS of the week

 

 

Gold Coast Suns v Melbourne at GLD CST Saturday May 7 (5.10pm)
This is a game to avoid if you can; based on last week’s form, the Suns wouldn’t beat Morningside under 10s; but they have had the obligatory “team meeting” early in the week; of concern is that Gazza may not be 100% fit (a bad thing, considering all the other mids that are out – including Rischitelli recently); one positive is that Saad comes back – and he gives them some zip. they seemed to be UP for the North game in R5 after blowing the chance for a 4-0 start the week prior in the Q Clash; after losing to the Roos, they dropped their bundle totally at Geelong after half time.  There are many players who can improve, but who knows how many and how much.

The Dees ONCE AGAIN lost as favourites; this week they are ever so slight outsiders against a team that lost by 20 goals last weekend.  The Dees do okay after losing as favourites (barring R1/2 scenarios) and they are a on a bumpy but upwards trajectory; it is expected that they would show something this week after being poor against the Saints; they have lost 13 in a row to the Saints; and they actually bounce back well after losing to them (again, except for R2 in 2014).  but will that be enough to overcome the expected blip in form by the Suns?

The answer is a definite maybe!  The doubts on the Suns (and, to a lesser extent, the Dees) makes this another EXTREME variance game; also the humidity factor; the 5.10pm start means thnat the humidity factor may kick in VERY LATE in the game; no help to the Suns unless they are very close!  Melbourne by 8 points
Post match review: Dees were tipped by 8 points and they won by 73; analysis was very good for being 65 points off; firstly, the Dees were slight outsiders and they won; next, the variance was tipped as EXTREME; correct in all aspects of the meaning of EXTREME; it should be noted that the result was “helped” by Sun players Sexton and Rosa being basically gone at QT; Martin scored only 25 SC points for the Suns and is in a slump; and Harbrow scored -1DT points in 4Q; nothing known about this, but it is possible he was also injured; and Max Gawn also dominated in the ruck; as noted above, they are doing okay after losing as favs and seem to be on upward trend

 

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide at Docklands  Saturday May 7 (7.40pm)
This is a tough one to pick; both teams have been very good all year with little in the way of downer performances.  The Crows have lost  by narrow margins to flag chances in Melbourne (Roos and Hawks); the Dogs have lost narrowly to the same 2 teams; it all makes for a great spectacle, but a tough one to pick; the home state advantage will mean that the Dogs get the nod; they have played the first 7 games all at the Docklands; that may be a slight negative (harder ground, they say), but they do get the 8 day break.

The Crows eased off late against Freo last weekend; it could be a sign that they have been “up for a while” and are due for a poor one; or maybe they had a few injuries on the day and are just resting players….which leads to the big problem: all the sore players for each team.

The Crows had Lever, McGovern & Seedsman all sore last week and all are said to be fine.  The Dogs had Hunter and Libba in doubt; Hunter may still require a concussion type test
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 9 points and they won by 15; analysis was pretty good, but the EXTREME variance call (not mentioned just here but was listed in the above table) was incorrect – it was assigned due to the number of players under a cloud; Libba was the only one of these to do really well; the rest sort of balance each other out – with the Crows getting slightly the worse end of the deal; they also reckoned they got a rough deal with the umpires; this is assessed as not enough to affect the result (some may disagree)

 

Fremantle v GWS Giants at Subiaco Oval  Saturday May 7 (8.10pm)
The Dockers were reasonable late last week – kicking the last 3 goals and making the score half respectable; but was it a positive sign; or just that the Crows were easing off and had a few niggles?  if the former, then they may have a chance this weekend; the forecast of rain may assist them.  The Giants have never won in Perth (unsurprisingly) and may have not experienced the WA wet (with the ball behaving differently on the sandy soil compared to some east coast surfaces).
The rain is mainly expected AM and it could be fine by game time. Ballantyne struggled last week after getting a knock the previous week; he may improve this weekend.

The Giants are following a pattern of team that emerge about this time of year following missing the finals the previous year (Richmond 1980 and Geelong 2007 are examples); such teams tend to hit top form a few rounds in and then maintain it for a while; that being the case, they would outperform expectations YET AGAIN THIS WEEK in the west.  But there is also a danger of this young team – after whipping the Hawks – succumbing to the Icarus effect.

This concern makes this an EXTREME variance game and also means that the Giants won’t be tipped as certs.  But expect them to go right on with the job if they get a sizable lead in the contest.

Giants by 11 points
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 11 points and they won by 18; analysis was perfect late in 4Q; but still good; Ballantyne improved – as tipped; the Giants never really got a huge lead in the match – always leaving the Dockers in with a sniff (although not looking like losing at any stage either); maybe the Dockers are also just starting to get back to some better form

 

St Kilda v North Melbourne at Docklands  Sunday May 8 (3.20pm)
There are good reasons not to get too excited about both teams this weekend.  The Saints beat the Dees last weekend as underdogs; teams that beat Melbourne as underdogs have not fared too well the next week; maybe they get a bit overconfident; or something happens to their mindset; the results for such teams (week after Melbourne) are either a really poor performance.. or about as expected; either outcome would spell a loss for the Saints this weekend.

But before the Roos are tipped as world certs… they had a good win in a crucial game on a Friday night; then they had all weekend to bask in the glory of it; reporters then spoke of them being 9-0 after the next three weeks against Saints, dons and Blues; this turned out to be a bit dismissive of the Saints good win over Melbourne.

Had the Roos not been playing another team on a potential downer, this would have been a big danger game; it still is, but let’s call it a small danger game this time.

Roos by 18 points but not certs
Post match review: Roos were tipped by 18 points and they won by 7; analysis was good enough; most people had the Roos as certs or nearly so; they would’ve been stiff to lose – having had injuries to Wells and Higgins; the Roos showed late that they were suffering form being up for a long time – but still managed to find something when required; maybe things got tougher for the Saints (psychologically) once they drew level; don’t blame Wood for taking so long to take the last shot at goal; he didn’t make the rules; if the players are to see the shot clock, then maybe the last minute or two needs to have a new rule – no time elapses until the player shooting for goal does something.

 

Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval Sunday May 8  (4.40pm)
Thus may be a wet and windy day – although most rain may be finished by game time.
Howard and Sam Gray are both out for Port, according to afl.com – from Hinkley mid Friday afternoon; it was expected that Howard was to be the main man in the ruck; not often you see a Dougal play!  He only got 8 hit-outs last week, with Dixon and Westhoff getting 7 and 5; it is assumed that Trengove comes in and may help out this week; it could be a good game for Stefan Martin in the ruck!

The lions were a bit stiff to lose last week; but trying to assess that game (and Port’s game) is difficult; the Swans may have put the queue in the rack a bit early last weekend (with another “easy kill” coming) and artificially boosted the look of Brisbane’s effort; but the Lions do get back Dayne Beams (maybe a bit underdone, but has class) and Rockliff is running into form. Mitch Robinson had a head knock (therefore probably won’t hurt) and may require a test before playing

Port’s woes were all forgotten with a great win over the Tigers; but was that a meritorious win? or just a game against a team in a terrible slump?

The home ground advantage and Port’s higher rating as a team will make them the tip; and by higher than some expect; but this is an EXTREME variance game – due to doubts on both teams.

Port by 21 points
Post match review: Port was tipped by 21 points and they won by 77; analysis was mixed; good to tip a winner; and the EXTREME variance was correct (with most Port by 2-3 goals max); probably should have been more aggressive; it appears that the narrow loos by the Lions ot the Swans the previous week was a false lead; the Lions were basically gone when Merrett pulled out prior to the game and then Rockliff was gone before half time – and Robinson (mentioned above as being a risk) only had 3 touches as a defensive player on Pittard in 1H.

 

Technical Analysis prior to R7, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 06 May 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was looking good early – and also midway through the final term – but the Blues fell away at crucial times and my technical pattern failed to emerge; they were like a share on a downward spiral that had a few blips – just to keep investors excited

This week, the game is Blues and PiesThe Blues had that 1 breakthrough win in Perth over Freo and were expected to start like a rocket early last week – ans then hold a big lead throughout the game.  The trend looked fine early, but their momentum stalled.  The failed to build on the good 3 to 1 goal first term.  Had they followed the technical lead, they would have probably had a better first quarter, but also gone further ahead in the second term; kicking 6 points to 3 doesn’t for the second term doesn’t really cut it.

As such, I am going to sack them this week.  There is a small risk in doing this; maybe their upward momentum that was expected last week was delayed, But, more likely, they failed to spike upwards when they had things going for them and now their form will head south again.

The other danger in tipping against them is that the Pies are off 2 x 6 day breaks and a trip to Perth; this is a concern; but I like their gradual introduction of form players from the VFL team.  I also reckon that the Pies put the Q in Iraq (as Mal Prop always says and now so do I) late last week against the Eagles.  So I expect them to be nicely up for this crucial match.  If they win this one, they travel to Brisbane for a chance to be 4 & 4 (and back in the race – before things get tougher again).

I’m tipping the Pies to win by over 3 goals.