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Round 2 Review

Round 2 Review  Added 06 April 2010

 

Time poor review:  You should have more confidence in your pre season analysis than the form displayed in week’s one and two.  Now is not the time for outrageous picks if you have had a bad week.

And good news is that we now return to normality – we can see the teams before making our selections; and, for relevant teams, the VFL returns!

 

Detailed review: 

This was a round where the experts (and especially this website) had picks that varied wildly from the actual results.  The word to analysts this week is:  DO NOT MAKE WILD CHANGES IN YOUR OPINIONS ABOUT TEAMS.  For example, you may think:

Freo are top 4 material

The Bombers will be bottom 4

The Swans are certs for the finals

The Pies will struggle

Saints have the flag wrapped up

North for the spoon

But it is very early days yet.  So what CAN we take away from the round?

 

After round 1, Melbourne had a crisis meeting.  Their output in round 2 FAR exceeded that in round 1.  And the Pies had this match after a big win over the Dogs and 6 days prior to playing the Saints.  They also were talked up big time for the flag during the week.  The question is:  How do we rate Melbourne and Collingwood? 

The answer:  same as in our pre season analysis.  That is why you do the analysis. Collingwood 3rd and a “9 out of 10” team.  Melbourne last and a “1 out of 10” team (would have been higher but for injuries).  No need to amend at this stage.

 

Are the Hawks back (because they almost, could’ve, should’ve beaten the premiers)?

The Hawks were rated as potentially a 3 – 6 side WITHOUT injuries during the pre season but, in reality, the injuries were going to condemn them to another year outside the 8.  Assuming that Burgoyne and Sewell get back without any other damage to the midfield, the Hawks will have a top midfield but still lack in the big man department.  The down side on the big men is likely to detract from the forward capability and drag down the overall performance of the team. This website still rates them as missing the 8.  But don’t write them off based on weeks 3 and 4 against the Dogs and Pies.  Their big test will come in weeks 6 and 7 when they play litmus test matches against the Dons and then the Eagles in Perth. 

 

Essendon and Freo

Matthew Knights said something like this in his press conference, “No dash; no dare; slow footy!”

The Dons were bad but HOW BAD are they really?  This week will be a crisis week with lots of bad press.  Expect them to fight back hard and try to “take the game on” next week.  The Blues are the ideal test but it is only one test.  This website rates them as 8th and a “6 out of 10” team.  No need to revise downwards yet, but they will be watched with interest.  Their draw from rounds 3 to 8 is difficult and they will need to win at least 2 (maybe 3) to keep in touch.

The Dockers are flying at present, but how good are they really?  This website rated them a “5 out of 10” team and 10th (most experts had them in the bottom 4).  The rating will not change yet, but their challenge will come in beating the top teams in Perth (they play the Cats there this week) and the bottom 8 teams away from Perth.

 

Adelaide Crows were rated by many as a top 4 team and certainly top 8 before the season began.  This website rated them 13th due to injuries and interrupted pre seasons for many players.  The rating stays for now but their form will be watched as players return to the team.

 

On North – wait a few weeks.

 

And the Saints – they were tipped as winning the flag by this website.  No need to change.

 

In summary, don’t do a big re-assessment this week.  Watch and wait. Trust your judgement.

 

Longggey