Navigation

Round 20, 2015

Round 20, 2015

SuperTipping results for R19: 8 winners for a total of 120 + 2 bonus pts = 122 and ranking improved from 936 to 575 out of 46,925 tipsters (top 1% – elite)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 1 out of 1 (with the Roos winning well).  Streak is now up to 18. Ranking worsened from 192 to 222 (because others were more aggressive and most favourites won) and in top 1% (elite).

50/50 tips: 1 out of 1 for the week (with the Roos taking forever to get over the 27 point range, but they did it) and 20 out of 50 for the year = a result of a poor but improving 40% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.  There are now only 56 tipsters left in the Gauntlet

Down the gurgler in R12 in the Pick 5 – along with most others. There are now  185 tipsters remain in the Pick 5

From now on, those still in the Gauntlet comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear. 

Early thoughts for R20: the tough games to pick are Lions / Blues and Dockers / Eagles; early thoughts are maybe Lions to win and Dockers as well – but need to keep an eye on the ins and outs for the Eagles; at this stage the Swans, Crows, Roos, Port, Hawks, Tigers and Dogs will be tipped – with maybe the Tigers to be the first of these to be labelled as certs

Round 20, 2015

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 SYD COLL SCG SYD 8 EXTREME A definite chance
2 ESS ADEL Docklands ADEL 16 HIGH A tiny chance
3 NMFC STK Hobart NMFC 36 HIGH No hope
4 PORT GWS ADEL PORT 26 HIGH No hope
5 GEEL HAW MCG HAW 14 EXTREME A small chance
6 BRIS CARL Gabba BRIS 5 HIGH A definite chance
7 RICH GCS MCG RICH 26 HIGH A tiny chance
8 WBD MELB Docklands WBD 22 HIGH A small chance
9 FREO WCE Subi FREO 15 EXTREME Some chance

 

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

1        SYD  vs.      COLL         SCG  Fri, 14 August 7:50 pm

This is a big danger game – the Swans just

Weather: dry; moderate winds

Please refer to Penny’s comment son this game here:

http://longggey.com/686-2/

This is a game where you can take a risk to catch up on the leaders.  With Buddy out and Travis Cloke back in, the Pies are a huge chance to cause an upset.

 

It’s a bit hard to assess exactly what happened to the Swans last week.  They were 13 points up and cruising to a win last week at the Cattery, but then ran out of gas totally in 2H.

 

As per Penny, the Pies should play with more freedom this week – having snared their win – and have their lowest injury list for some time.

 

Ben McGlynn didn’t make it back and there may be a doubt of Jeremy Laidler – low numbers 4Q last week and trained lightly mid week.

 

Tyson Goldsack is still in the VFL for Collingwood (a slight surprise).  Taylor Adams was subbed off at 3QT last week and there may be a doubt about him.

 

Watch for possible late changes in both teams

 

The doubt about exactly how the Pies will be after their long overdue win – and queries on the Swans (the ins of Mike Pyke and Gary Rohan look good – if they can produce well first up after injury) makes this an EXTREME VARIANCE game.

 

The Swans by 8 points and a risky tip.
Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 8 points and they won by 11; analysis was very close, but the best bit of advice was that the Swans were not certs (as some had suggested); even though they won, they didn’t win like certs; the Pies possibly should have won the game, but again kicked poorly; then again, the Swans had lots of injury issues on the night; the EXTREME variance call was borderline – maybe the game trend was not quite severe enough to get the EXTREME tag

 

 

 

2        ESS   vs.      ADEL         Docklands   Sat, 15 August 1:45 pm

The Crows are likely to win

The Crows will win this one if they are fully switched on.  There is a danger that the Bombers might do to them exactly what they did to Richmond – catch them off guard.

 

But Essendon need to “find something” to make this happen. Each of their remaining four games looks equally tough – this one, then Suns away, followed by Tigers and Pies.

 

The Dons injury quotient is 22 to the Crows 11; this is almost enough to totally write the Dons off – when one considers all their other worries.  But they do have the home ground advantage and that slight concern about how the Crows will front up after the adulation they would have received last weekend.

 

It was generally agreed that the Crows should have won by more last week – but that also the Tigers were unbelievably flat.  They played as if low on energy.

 

The Crows by 16 points but not certs
Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 16  points and they won by 112; analysis was miles off and, of course, the variance was EXTREME (given that most tipped a 20-30 point victory); the reason was disunity in the Bomber camp – as noted by Taylor Walker after the game; the Crows fully capitalised on this and, so, the 112 point victory occurred

 

 

 

3        NMFC         vs.      STK  Blundstone Arena          Sat, 15 August 2:10 pm

The Roos are certs

Weather: dry; light winds which may increase slightly during the game

The Roos will win this one if they are on the ball; their biggest danger is that they are going through a series of “easy kill” matches – having beaten Essendon, Brisbane, Carlton and Melbourne in the past four matches.  They looked a little scratchy against the Dees, but put them away late in the game.

 

The late surge suggests that they should be okay for the encounter against the Saints.  The last remaining danger is that they start thinking about the Dockers match the following week at the Docklands.  This will be dismissed and the Roos named as certs down there in Hobart.

 

There may be a slight doubt on Jack Sinclair who copped a heavy head knock last week.  The Saints fly to Tassie on a 6 day break.

 

The Roos by 36 points and certs of the week
Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 36 points and they won by 37; analysis was very close and the Roos eventually won like certs; but the game trend was definitely EXTREME variance; maybe the reason for this is the “easy kill” matches mentioned above; because of that, the Roos may have thought that they only needed to turn up to win; regrettably for Saints fans, their team didn’t get full benefit of their time of dominance – kicking 3:8 to 2:2 in 2Q; it was much easier for the Roos to come from 20 points down at HT than, say 40 – which would have been the deficit had the Saints kicked 7:4 in 2Q instead of 3:8;

 

 

4        PORT         vs.      GWS ADEL Oval          Sat, 15 August 4:05 pm SA time

Port without doubt

Weather: tiny chance of a shower; light winds

Please refer to Penny’s comment son this game here:

http://longggey.com/686-2/

The Power certainly went out last weekend.  Penny notes that they hit their lowest point in Ken Hinkley’s 3 year tenure at the club last weekend.  This type of “rock bottom – must do something about it” type feeling usually results in a much better performance the following week – so long as the club isn’t about to sack the coach.  That can be ruled out here.  There are 5 omissions this week – the biggest name being Matthew Lobbe.  This is maybe a few too many, but it may work.  The rest are all fringe players.

 

The Giants are actually ahead of Port on the ladder and doing reasonably well at present.  But losing Adam Treloar, Stephen Coniglio and Tom Scully all in the one week will be enough to finish them off.

Port by 26 points and certs
Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 26 points and they won by 21; analysis was pretty good in this instance; the one surprise was that the Giants were able to wrestle back the lead on 4 separate occasions; this game trend borders on EXTREME; still, the call of “cert” was still justified

 

5        GEEL         vs.      HAW MCG          Sat, 15 August 7:20 pm

The Hawks probably

Weather: dry; light winds

The Hawks are not looking as unbeatable as when they trounced the Dockers and Swans a few weeks ago. This may be due to some ins and outs in the side of late – or that they are training harder now to peak for the finals. 

 

Either way – they now play the Cats when Geelong has their shortest injury list for the year.

 

When you add to that the fact that the Hawks are coming back from Perth – and that the Eagles had a lot of sore boys late last week (some of whom went into last week’s game under an injury cloud) – then the Cats suddenly become a sneaky chance to win.

 

On current rankings, the Hawks should win.  But they are way too heavily fancied in this case

 

The Hawks by 14 points, but not certs
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 14 points and they won by 36; analysis was a bit off here; but the Cats did lose Mitch Duncan and Tom Lonergan prior to the game; then they butchered shots at goal late in the game when they had a tiny chance to win; in review, the Hawks played like certs and were never going to lose this one; the game was labelled EXTREME variance, but the scoring trend was pretty normal; and Cyril was at hid brilliant best!

 

6        BRIS vs.      CARL         Gabba         Sat, 15 August 7:20 pm

The Lions in a tough one to pick

Weather: light winds; small chance of a shower; moderate to high humidity

Justin Leppitsch was adamant through the week that they didn’t want the spoon.  In that case, this is the one they MUST win.

 

The surprise inclusion here is Trent West into the team.  He has been in the NEAFL in recent weeks – without starring.  He played mainly forward last weekend and so maybe he will be used up forward against the Blues.  The move doesn’t inspire much confidence.

 

The Blues lost their coach shortly after losing in Melbourne to the Lions earlier this year.  It is uncertain if this will impact the current game.  It is now quite rare for teams to play each other again in the same year as a sacking.

 

Troy Menzel is still not back in favour at the Blues; and they lose Levi Casboult and Simon White to injury.  These last two injuries kill off the main advantage that the Blues had.

 

The home ground will mean that the tip is Brisbane.  Avoid this game if you can.

 

The Lions by 5 points
Post Match Review: Lions were tipped by 5 points and they won by 64; analysis was a fair way off; the variance was EXTREME (but not tipped to be so) – both due to the scoring patterns and the end result; the likely reason for the big win was that the rumour mill running hot that smiling Brendon Bolton already “has the job” at the Blues; John Barker said in the presser that they have reached the tipping point in terms of player unavailability – Levi Casboult and Simon White going out; he also said that the effort dropped in in 2H; apart from tipping the winner, the one good tip was “avoid the game if you can”.  With teams so low on the ladder, the certainty levels are low.

 

7        RICH          vs.      GCS  MCG Sun, 16 August 1:10 pm

The Tigers are almost certs

Weather: dry; moderate winds

The Tigers are 1 and 3 against the Suns – and are famous for the worst last 2 minutes of footy to lose a game up north against them some time ago. 

 

They usually bounce back well from upset losses.  Last weekend was a FNS Friday Night Shocker for Richmond.  They would have liked to play this game earlier than Sunday.  The 9 day break is a bit long, but they still should do it.

 

The risk about tipping the Tigers this time is that the suns have been better lately and may spike in form after the breakthrough win last week.  But it is only a faint hope.

 

And Brett Deledio is back in yellow and black!  His presence corresponds to Richmond wins!

 

The Tigers by 26 points and almost certs
Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 26 points and they won by 83; analysis was a fair way off and there are two reasons for this; firstly, the Suns copped bad injuries during the game and, so, they were belted 14 goals to 3 after HT; the other thing was that the ability of Richmond to bounce back after a loss was underestimated; like McGoo, they did it again!  The variance in this game turned out to be EXTREME, but that was solely due to the Suns’ injuries

 

 

 

8        WBD vs.      MELB         Docklands   Sun, 16 August 3:20 pm

The Dogs, but not certs

The Dogs have lost twice to the Dees this year – in a NAB match and also in round 8 (a big upset at the time).  One key in these wins was Brendan McCartney, who coached the Bulldogs until being stood down late last year.  He will know them better than most.  But, each time the two teams play, his “intelligence” will mean less and less.  Nonetheless, it is an advantage for Melbourne.

 

The other danger is the “Icarus” factor with the Dogs – who have soared to the lofty spot of fourth on the ladder – edging out the Swans on percentage. With games against the Eagles away and then the Roos, they cannot afford to drop this one.

 

On pure form, the Dogs look clearly better; there is this slight McCartney concern, however. But being at the Docklands – where the Dees are on a big losing streak – helps.

 

The Dogs by 22 points, but not certs
Post Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 22 points and they won by 98; analysis was a long way off and the result being >6 goals away from the expected (4 -6 goals was the expected range) makes it yet another EXTREME variance game this weekend; of interest is the Post match presser by Paul Roos; he didn’t see it coming; he was aware that the young group energy levels were on the edge; he gave them a couple of days off during the week; this explains EVERYTHING! it meant that the game became like an “after the bye” game – at this time of year, they would’ve gone into “early mad Monday mode”.  Then they snapped out of it after half time; but the effort wore off.  It should point to a better effort next week. No doubt Penny will be all over this!

 

 

9        FREO         vs.      WCE           Subi  Sun, 16 August 2:40 pm       WA time

The Dockers – maybe

Weather: showers; windy

There has been a lot of talk about it being better for both teams that the Dockers lose. This would assist in, perhaps, keeping the Hawks in third spot and making them travel to Perth at least one extra time.

 

If the Dockers win, there is a small chance that the Eagles could drop to fourth and then play a Derby in R1 of the finals with no home ground advantage.

 

This will be an EXTREME variance game because quite a few Eagles were under clouds prior to the Hawks game.  Four of these were Chris Masten, Sam Butler, Jack Darling & Scott Selwood – who underperformed against Hawthorn.  Only Scott Lycett did well from this group of players.

 

It was the first time Adam Simpson had coached against his old boss (with Brendon Bolton being the stand-in coach last year).

 

This is another game to avoid if you can.  Logic says that the Dockers will win.  They seem to have got the Eagles at the right time

 

The Dockers by 15 points, but not certs
Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 15 points but the Eagles won by 24; analysis wasn’t the best in this case; the positive was that the variance was EXTREME (with the result being borderline on 6 goals away from expectations – plus the Eagles jumping out to a huge lead early in the game – exact opposite to the last Derby); maybe the difference in motivational levels was underestimated. Alex Silvagni was a late replacement (on Friday) for Luke McPharlin – and he played poorly; plus he looks like getting a decent holiday to boot; Michael Johnson looked like he needed the run in his first game back for the Dockers; the Eagles had their fair share of injury concerns – which made them slightly vulnerable late in the match; but they were able to do enough to win.

 

 

 

 

 

Best cert:  the Roos (gave tipsters a scare, then won well), then Port (did it well enough)

 

Best Outsider: the Pies (almost got there), with Blues (awful after QT) and Cats (never really looked likely) some hope

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  the Pies to win or lose by less than 14 points (just made it); the Cats to win or to lose by less than 24 points (missed 4Q shots to give them a chance to get within 24 pts)

 

Happy tipping!  This is a week with a few awkward games to tip.  It might be harder than it looks (but it was straightforward until the Derby)