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Round 20-23, 2016

Round 20-23, 2016

Round 20, 2016 (all times are AET) 

Tipping results for R19: Supertipping: 9 out of 9 (perfect) for a total of 120 +4 bonus = 124 and ranking improved from 2,563 to 1,004  out of 42,490 tipsters (top 2%) – big rise helped by the bonus points

Streak: 4/4 (with Cats, Hawks and Crows winning comfortably enough – and the Dees barely falling over the line) so streak now up to 19 ; ranking improved from 2,266 to 1,210  (top 5%); a pretty easy week for the streak – so long as you weren’t tempted by the Eagles!

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there are now down from 30 to 27 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive – but it will get tougher from here on in! 

50/50: 2/3 (with the losers being the Tigers AGAIN – not anywhere near close enough; and the winners being the Pies – who won; and the Roos – who won by enough); now at 21/47 = a poor but improving 44%

Early thoughts for R20: the certs appear to be, at this stage, the Crows and the Cats; possible certs and to be tipped will be the Hawks, Giants and Swans; early tip for Collingwood, Roos, Saints and Eagles

 

 

ROUND 20

 

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 RICH COLL MCG  COLL  16  EXTREME  A chance
2 SYD PORT SCG  SYD  21  HIGH  A tiny hope
3 MELB HAW MCG  HAW  24  EXTREME  A tiny hope
4 GCS GWS GLD CST  GWS  36  HIGH  A tiny hope
5 WBD NMFC DCKLNDS  NMFC  21  HIGH  A small chance
6 ADEL BRIS ADEL  ADEL  63  HIGH  No hope
7 CARL STK MCG  STK  13  HIGH  A definite chance
8 GEEL ESS DCKLNDS  GEEL  71  HIGH  No hope
9 FREO WCE SUBI  WCE  26  HIGH  A tiny hope

 

 

Friday August 5 

 

Richmond v Collingwood at MCG Friday August 5  (7.50pm)
These team met in R2 when the Pies came form 17 points down late n the contest to win by a point; it began a run of 6 losses for the Tigers and they never recovered. Recently, after an honourable loss to the Dogs, they recorded an unimpressive win over the Dons and then were flogged by the Hawks (who powered away late) and Giants (who had it won very early); they finish off the season with the Pies, then Cats, Saints and Swans in Sydney; their best chances to have a late win would be this week or against the Saints; they have sold millions of papers this week; it rarely happens that a team in the Tigers’ situation underperforms terribly for the final 6 weeks; bu the big doubt is WHEN they may have a spike; the return of Griffiths is a positive, but Deledio is still a week or so away (and is a key player)

Fasolo still hasn’t made it back for the Pies; and Cox comes back due to the Moore injury rather than good form; Adams has been great for Collingwood since his return – and they look a better team with him in; but this looms as a danger game for the Pies – who will be tipped without huge confidence; it will help them if Cloke can excel (in Moore’s absence) or work well in tandem with Cox; Pies by 16 points, but EXTREME variance – mainly due to the uncertainty about the Tiger players mindset and lingering doubts about the Pies
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 16 points but the Tigers won by 15; analysis was mixed; wrong team selected, but the EXTREME variance call was spot on – with the Tigers coming from 4 goals down in 1Q to win; the Pies are hard to assess, but they did have more injury concerns on the day; Cox was on fire early but faded out after a shoulder knock; Reid also had a knee problem in 2Q; then Pendles went down late; two other players to have an influence: Houli returned from injury recently and really hit his straps; Blair (for the Pies) came back from injury and couldn’t get into the game at all

 

 Saturday August 6 

Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide at SCG  Saturday August 6 (1.45pm)
The Swans followed an unimpressive win over the Blues with a real smashing of Freo in the West last Sunday; they do have to cope with a 6 day break back from their win, but Port is on the road for the second week in a row (after playing north in Brisbane), so they are even on the freshness score; Port coach Hinkley was pleased with his team – although it was hard for most outsiders to assess the value of the victory; it followed a mixed performance against the Giants when they let a 20 point half time lead slip; it will be tough for them to win this one; they then play the Dees at home – followed by a Showdown and an away game vs the Suns; they will probably need to win all 4 and have a lot of things go their way to make finals; this and the Showdown are the really tough ones – and they will be outsiders for both of them; Dixon coming back is a positive for Port – although there may be some doubt on him, so watch for late team changes; note that Harltett was a late withdrawal for Port last weekend and won’t be back for a while; the Swans generally do well coming back from Perth, so it looks reasonable safe; Lloyd copped a big hit late against Freo, so may need to pass a test in order to play; Ted Richards announced his retirement come season’s end and is an emergency this week – a possible inclusion iof Lloyd drops out; watch for news; given the fact that Port’s win was so huge last week, the Swans won’t be tipped as certs; Swans by 21 points
Post match review:  Swans were tipped by 21 points and they won by 67; analysis was way off, but the right team was selected; the variance was just in the EXTREME range, bu not tipped; the game was over at QT with Swans leading 41 to 0; maybe the Lions last week lulled Port into a false sense of security; Port also did not handle the 2nd week on the road; also, it seems that the Swans were determined to get on top early to avoid getting overrun late – which could have happened on the back of a 6 day break back fro Perth; in 4Q, they booted 0:2 to Port’s 1:3, but the gap was so huge, losing 4Q did not really matter; the Swans copped injuries to Rohan plus minor concerns for Cunningham and Buddy; a shocker by Port, with Ebert, Boak and Robbie Gray all failing to score 60 SC points!

 

Melbourne v Hawthorn at MCG  Saturday August 6 (2.10pm)
The Hawks just keep on winning; last week’s victory was just so-so in windy conditions – the first game against former assistant coach Bolton (if NAB games are excluded); often these games can turn our to be a blow-out for the “master” against his old “pupil”, but the Blues were brave in defeat and it was the first time the Hawks looked average since their R15 bye; if this is a sign that the Hawks have been “up for a long time” then they could be vulnerable; but the Hawks are on a 13 game winning streak over the Dees; so there is no way that the Dees will be tipped outright; coach Roos was impressed that they were competitive against the Hawks FOR A CHANGE in their R11 loss this year – by 18 points; their previous losses were by 105, 50, 95, 54 and 45; the Dees were terrific in the West, but virtually threw the game away against the Eagles – then they struggled to barely beat the Suns at home; sometimes such s struggling win to break a losing streak can release the pressure valve and help them to outperform expectations markedly; this possibility will mean that the Hawks aren’t tipped as certs; it the Dees do play with more freedom, then this would often (but not always) show out in a top 1Q effort; Weideman has been named for the Dees – which makes people think that Hogan may be in doubt; maybe Matt Jones would come back in if Hogan is a late withdrawal; Puopolo was a late withdrawal along with Cyril last weekend; while both were expected back, only Cyril returns; if the Dees are to win, Gawn will probably need to convert his ruck dominance into scoring opportunities; Hawks by 24 points, but EXTREME variance because the Hawks might be due for a loss and it is hard to know what to expect from Melbourne; if the Dees continue their form of last week, they also could get really smashed
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 24 points but the Dees won by 29; analysis was better than it looked; firstly, the variance was correctly tipped as EXTREME – with Melbourne outperforming expectations by 59 points!! Next, most had locked in the Hawks as total certs, but not here; of interest is that the Hawks played that Blues last week and both underperformed the week after!! Hogan came out and was replaced by Pedersen; for the Hawks, Frawley went out and was replaced by Heatherley; the Hawks then lost Stratton in 2Q and had a few others sore; Vince got his nose smashed but soldiered on; the significant thing was that the Hawks were apparently on their way to YET ANOTHER narrow “how did they get out of jail” type win – hitting the lead mid 4Q before conceding the final 5 goals; it was a sign of growing maturity for the Dees.

 

Gold Coast Suns v GWS Giants at GLD CST Saturday August 6 (4.35pm)
This is the fourth week on the road for the Giants (last week’s home game was in Canberra – so no disadvantage there – except for the travel); despite this, the fact that the Suns are missing so many mids means that they have little hope against the Giants; They lose Malceski and Lonergan to injury this week, but get back Hallahan and Lemmens; coach Eade said last week that his midfield will come a gutzer sooner or later – probably against the Giants next week! Will it be as he said?  Probably; the only danger is travel-weariness for the Giants; Giants by 36 points and almost certs
Post match review:  Giants were tipped by 36 points and they won by 8; analysis was so-so; the Suns could consider themselves a little unlucky to lose; they lost Sexton in 1Q and N icholls was somewhat hampered with a knee problem; Giants coach Cameron said the boys’ energy levels were a bot low after being on the road for 4 weeks; that fact was probably underestimated in the preview; but it did mean that the Giants (correctly) weren’t tipped as certs

 

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne at Docklands  Saturday August 6 (7.25pm)
The Dogs get M Boyd and Morris back this week (good news for the defence), but lose Macrae and Libba from the midfield (and both were excellng befor ebeing injured); given that they also have recently lost Wallis and ruck Campbell, it will be a tall order for the Dogs; the Roos are missing quite a few too, but they are more settled and this should be the difference; both teams had big build-ups for their games last week; maybe it will be harder for the Dogs to get “UP” again – despite the extra day’s rest; Roos by 21 points
Post match review: Roos were tipped by 21  points but the Dogs won by 14; analysis was wrong and off; the Dogs did manage to get back UP this week and it was a great effort; were the Roos in a flat spot after the breakthrough win over the Pies and then Boomer’s 427 game?  And no team has ever won when a player plays his 428th! Each team lost a player early (Smith for the Dogs and Brown for the Roos); the Roos then copped injuries to Thompson and MacMillan very late in the game; the Dogs were underestimated!

 

Adelaide v Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval Saturday August 6  (7.40pm)
The Crows could’ve gone all out for %age, but they have rested Thompson and McGovern this week – as well as having lost Jacobs; Walker coming back is a bonus and, despite the changes, should win this one comfortably; there is some danger in getting too excited about a huge margin (it may happen, but it also looked like a bit of a snooze time before the trip to Freo offers a slighlty harder challenge; the Lions look slightly better with Schache and Gardiner in, but won’t get close; Martin has been “rested for another week” according to the Lions website; Crows by 63 points and CERTS
Post match review:  Crows were tipped by 63 points and they won by 138; analysis was miles off here; it was assumed that the Lions might bounce back 2 weeks after their UP game against Essendon; they didn’t! This is the final nail in the coach’s coffin; he will be gone at year’s end, if this result is anything to go by; meanwhile, the Crows climbed back into the top 4; the Crows are also going pretty well – winning like that while resting a few; Laird looks to be back to his best; surely the Lions will bring back Martin next week unless injured.

 

 Sunday August 7 

 

Carlton v St Kilda at MCG  Sunday August 7 (1.10pm)
This is the toughest one to tip; the Blues have been brave in defeat recently – losing to 3 x top 8 sides by a total of 32 points; the Saints may have got the Dees R17 and Dogs R18 at good times, but were good enough to win; then they weren’t quite good enough vs North; what may happen is that the Blues might come down from their last 3 week’s form; often a team finally gets a chance to win one against lesser opponents (the the Eagles, Swans and Hawks) and then falls over when looking likely to record a win; but they may also continue on and win it for the retiring Walker (who is on the 7 man IC bench but will surely come in); Saints by 13 points – without huge confidence
Post match review: Saints were tipped by 13 points and they won by 71; analysis was partly good; the pattern of honourable losses by the Blues (above) was correct, but no given enough weight; it should have led to the Saints being tipped by more; Andrew Walker was chaired off, but he was 1 of 9 players to score <50 SC points; he was a much better player before injuries got the better of him; the Saints only had 1 player under 50SC – Wright (Nathan) – and he copped a knock in 2Q; Dunstan also had an awful looking shoulder injury for the Saints in 4Q, but the game was well and truly gone by then

 

Geelong v Essendon at Docklands  Sunday August 7 (3.20pm)
The Cats are CERTS of the week here; no great surprise; Kelly comes in for maybe his last game against his old team; the Cats may struggle in patches, due to an important win on a Friday night and then a nice weekend off prior to an easy kill; but they won’t lose – perhaps just start a bit slowly; playing the bombers twice this year will help Geelong; Cats by 71 points and CERTS
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 71  points and they won by 66; analysis was pretty good – except for the notions of a sluggish start; the Cats looked to be in second gear a bit, without ever looking like losing; Scott Selwood came in for his first game; injuries to Goddard and Menzel virtually evened out; a curio was that the top 2 SC scorers for Essendon were ex Cats Brown and Kelly; Dons fans will wonder if either will be retained next year.

 

Fremantle v West Coast Eagles at Subiaco Oval Sunday August 7  (4.40pm)
The ruck stocks of both teams loo so much better this week; Sandilands and Nicnat both return; it is hard to know which player will have the bigger impact on the outcome; Redden (injury) and Yeo (illness) both come into the 25, but neither are certs to be playing; even so, the Dockers are much worse off in terms of injury;  because of the doubts n both ruckmen and some concerns with the Eagles, they won’t be tipped as total certs; Eagles by 26 points
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 26 points and they won by 46; analysis was okay; the EXTREME variance call was borderline – but probably correct; the Eagles came from 15 points down in 2Q to win by 46; inclusions of Sandilands (62 SC) and Nicnat (69) can be called a draw; in the end, the team with less injuries prevailed and Masten looks to be running into form after an interrupted pre-season

Certs: only Crows and Cats this week (treading very warily) (both won well – no elephant stamp for that, but credit for steerng clear of Hawthorn)

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Roos to win by more than 9 points (always looked in trouble after HT)

Technical Analysis prior to R20, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 05 Aug 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was dreadful by Dredfell; the Suns were able to back up their good effort from the previous week; in review, it is noted that the Dees often go poorly 2 games after losing to the Saints; other than that, it was a bit hard to explain; maybe the Dees were flat after coming back from the west – of from throwing away a game they should have won; SORRY!!!

This week, the “kick after the siren to lose” occurrence will be reviewed.  This is rare – about once a year this millennium so far. The Suns had such a kick and Tom Lynch missed narrowly from a difficult shot last weekend – no score and the Dees snuck home by 2 points; here are the findings:  
Firstly, the teams that lose:
lowly ranked teams don’t recover as well from missed kicks compared to top teams
the week after the missed kick, all teams average out at -4 points in the first term the following week and then +4 in the second term; that is verging on being significant; but, it we exclude top teams, it is -7 in first term and -8 in second; if we exclude Geelong in 2005 (they were MID rating back then, but bordering on top), then the numbers are -12 and -12; while there are a few games in this mix that include some big underdogs, it is still significant; the games including fledgling clubs GCS and GWS have been removed to take out the bias,

And the winners (who win by doing nothing other than watch and hope)
They do better the next week late in the season compared to early in the year
Teams that win, on average, score 9 points more than their opponents in the first term the following week – and 13 more if you exclude the kick after the siren wins against top teams.  But if they start poorly, they often go further behind

Summing it all up, the Dees (winners) have a small chance to beat the Hawks, but will need to be sharp early; I can see the Dees winning or achieving an overperforming loss ONLY if they begin well (say, if they can be more than a goal up at the first break – then they should win or be highly competitive); it doesn’t help tipsters much, regrettably – except as a warning not to tip the Hawks as certain winners.

The Suns are expected to start poorly and underperform – maybe losing by 8 goals plus; there is a small chance that they may have some fight left in them if humidity increases and the game is cooked – with the Giants being on the road for the 4th week in a row.

Finally, the Lions and Bombers played out a wooden spoon type game in round 18; both teams underperformed last weekend – more so the Lions; while I am not expecting too much of a bounce from either team this week – both have virtually no hope – I would expect that the team who played Essendon and Brisbane last weekend are in danger of having a downer; the Crows played the Dons at home last week and now the Lions at home; I will leave this one alone; but Port played the Lions and whopped them; this week, they are on the road for the second week in a row and going to play the Swans at the SCG; I expect Port to underperform even though the Swans are coming back from Perth on a 6 day break; this is more likely if the Swans establish an early break – which I think is likely; Swans by over 5 goals in this one.

 

Round 21, 2016 (all times are AET) 

Tipping results for R20: Supertipping: 6 out of 9 (perfect) for a total of 126 +4 bonus = 130 and ranking dropped from 1,004 to 1,078  out of 44,445 tipsters (top 2%)

Streak: 2/2 (with Cats and Crows winning easily) so streak now up to 21 ; ranking improved from 1,210 to 844  (top 3%); a tricky week for cert tippers with the Hawks losing to the Dees for the first time in a decade – plus the highly fancied Pies losing on Friday night!

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there are now down from 27 to 8 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive – well done to all who have made it this far! 

50/50: 0/1 (with the loser the Roos); now at 21/48 = a poor 43%

Early thoughts for R21: the certs appear to be, at this stage, the Swans, Cats and Crows, while the Dogs, Blues, Giants & Suns will be tipped; the other games are almost 50/50: Hawks vs Roos and Port vs Dees

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 WBD COLL DCKLNDS  WBD  13  EXTREME  A definite chance
2 BRIS CARL GABBA  CARL  14  EXTREME  A chance
3 HAW NMFC MCG  HAW  11 then 19  HIGH  A chance
4 GWS WCE OLY PARK  GWS  23  EXTREME  A tiny chance
5 STK SYD DCKLNDS  SYD  27  HIGH  A tiny chance
6 PORT MELB ADEL  PORT  3  EXTREME  Tipped to win
7 ESS GCS DCKLNDS  GCS  23  HIGH  A tiny chance
8 RICH GEEL MCG  GEEL  31  HIGH  No hope
9 FREO ADEL SUBI  ADEL  38  HIGH  No hope

 

ROUND 21

 

Friday August 12 

 

Western Bulldogs v Collingwood at Docklands Friday August 12 (7.50pm)
This is a danger game for the Dogs; they have been doing extremely well in covering their injuries; the Pies were so poor after QT last week that it is tempting to totally write them off; don’t do it here; Blair was ordinary first up from injury last week and may improve; if Moore is fully fir and can fire, that would be a big help; Pendles appears to be okay, but watch out for any late changes; Smith of the Dogs will need to pass a concussion test – and the Dogs are a risk at present because of their injuries;and assistant Montgomery has just departed the club (to coach the Lions, maybe)! the Pies have been somewhat unreliable, but they had players out injured this week who didn’t do much last weekend; Dogs by 13 points
Post match review:  Dogs were tipped by 13 points and they won by 3; analysis was pretty good – with many tipping the Dogs as certs; in fact, they barely fell over the line; the q by q scores make it look like a goal for goal type match, but there were plenty of momentum swings mid-terms – so the EXTREME variance call was probably correct; good to tip the winner

 

 Saturday August 13 

 

Brisbane Lions v Carlton at Gabba  Saturday August 13 (1.45pm)
The Lions get Martin back this week as well as Cutler; their OUTS all performed very poorly last week, so maybe the injured players battled on last week under duress – and this partly explains the blow-out; the Blues were highly competitive against the hawks and then blown out of the water by the Saints last week; the Hawks also struggled last week; neither side can be trusted here and so it will be an EXTREME variance case; the Lions have a longer injury list, but this is their best chance to have another win (home vs Cats then away to Saints); they may lift, but if the coach is just about out the door (see Dogs preview above), this could be another shocker; EXTREME variance and Blues by 14 points
Post match review:  Blues were tipped by14  points but the Lions won by 4; analysis was not too bad, but tipped a loser; the positives were: being less bullish about the Blues than many; and also not totally writing off the Lions (as their last 2 losses indicated); maybe the Blues could’ve / should’ve won, but the important thing in the analysis was NOT to tip the Blues a s certs (as some would have done); and, again, avoid being too confident on favoured teams that are on long losing streaks

 

Hawthorn v North Melbourne at MCG Saturday August 13  (2.10pm)
The Roos should have won last time they met, but just failed; they would like to finish the job off, but are about as injury depleted as last time in R13; the Hawks were surprise losers to the Dees last weekend and have lost Stratton; Hodge seemed to be NQR last week; and they get back a stronger looking team than last week; but they are still not playing like a top side; expect it to be fierce early; the Hawks will slip a few places (maybe to 5th) if they lose; the Roos need 1 win to secure a finals spot; the Hawks will be tipped, but they are a bit too hotly fancied & the Roos are some hope here; Hawks by 11 points;  Friday update – ah yes, it was obvious…. the Roos dropped McKenzie despite good numbers; now he is back in because Brown and Thompson are both out for the Roos; this make the job much tougher, but not impossible, for North; Brown is a big out because the Hawks are a bit light on down back at present; Hawks by 19 points now
Post match review:  Hawks were tipped by 19 points and they won by 39; analysis was just so-so; the game was over in 1Q when the Hawks were up 7 goals to nil; that also made the trend an EXTREME; then the Roos got back to within 14 points, attacked and missed a goal they should have got; then the Hawks made them pay the other way and were 19 points up; the Roos never got back after that; the gaem started like the Roos maybe lacked belief (after throwing EVERYTHING at the Hawks last time and still losing); the Hawks have caught the Roos at good times this year.

 

GWS Giants v West Coast Eagles at Homebush Saturday August 13  (4.35pm)
The Giants return home after 4 weeks on the road; it was getting the better of them and they needed a bit of luck to get over the line vs the Suns last weekend; they may still be recovering from their trips, but deserve to be favourites here; Nicnat is second up off a 6 day break for the Eagles – who were more impressive late in the match in last week’s Derby; the travel weariness of the Giants is one reason that they won’t be tipped as certs; the other is that just maybe the Eagles are playing themselves back into form; Giants by 23 points
Post match review:  Giantss were tipped by 23 points but the Eagles won by 1; analysis was just fair; the Giants may, perhaps, have still been travel-weary; and Nicnat was the hero with a goal 2 seconds before the end (he also kicked a goal AFTER the siren in the west to defeat North); maybe the Eagles are running back into a bit of form, but maybe it was just a flat Giants team – more to come

 

St Kilda v Sydney Swans at Docklands  Saturday August 13 (7.25pm)
The Swans should win this one and there was a temptation resisted to tip them as certs; the reason for not doing so is that both teams played teams on a downer last week; the Swans played Port who were on the road for the second week and were apparently lulled into a false sense of security by the Lions (who were very poor again the following week); the Saints played the Blues who were flat after a huge game vs the Hawks in Launceston; overall the Swans are a more polished team and should win; but the doubt remains!  Swans by 27 points
Post match review:  Swans were tipped by 27 points and they won by 70; analysis was mixed; the right team was tipped AND by more than most; but because they won by 50 points MORE than than expected, the variance was EXTREME; check out Penny’s comments below – which do better to explain things than anything else; although the Saints had injury troubles before & during the game Geary was a late withdrawal – replaced by McKenzie; Hickey, Fisher and Armitage all struggled with injuries during the game and Steven didn’t star for the Saints

 

Port Adelaide v Melbourne at Adelaide Oval  Saturday August 13 (7.40pm)
The Dees powered away from a Hawthorn team missing a few good ones last week, but it was a monumental breakthrough – and something to  savour; when they similarly beat the Cats last year in Geelong, they got off to a slow start the following week vs the Eagles and were never in it; the big test now is for them to back up their breakthrough win (after 13 losses vs Hawks); they are also on a 7 game losing streak vs Port; they will feel that they had a total shocker against Port in the Alice; they may perhaps be good enough to do it this time; Port get Lobbe back after some time in the SANFL; it is unclear how things will work now with Trengove; will he merely go to defence?  Lobbe’s return after a long absence, plus doubts on the Dees ability to back up a good win and do it interstate, makes this am EXTREME variance game; also Port had a good week (vs Lions), then a shocker (vs Swans and gone in 2Q) and in the wet; middle of the road teams such as Port often underperform late int he season after such a pattern; Dees by 3 points in a tough on to pick
Post match review:  Dees were tipped by 3 points and they won by 40; analysis was pretty good for being 37 points off; the real question was WHY was Port so heavily fancied? Maybe nobody believed the Dees after they beat the Hawks; perhaps they may be on a high as the coach departs stage left; but also Port lost Wingard early, while Dixon, Austin, Westhoff and Impey were all hindered to some extent

 

 Sunday August 14 

 

Essendon v Gold Coast Suns at Docklands  Sunday August 14 (1.10pm)
The Dons have given games to a couple of players who haven’t been shooting the lights out in the VFL – one of which is Jake (son of Michael) Long; the move appears to be an opportunity to have a look at some youngsters in the big league prior to year’s end; they have rested Parish and lose 3 others to injury; this greatly helps the Suns, who should really win this; but they won’t be tipped as certs because they have Brooksby as a ruckman (Nicholls injured and Currie NQR after injury); and also the Giants were 4th week on the road vs Suns last week; Suns by 23 points, but not certs
Post match review:  Suns were tipped by 23 points but the Dons won by 6; analysis was just fair; the positive was that the Suns weren’t tipped as certs; maybe the loss of Nicholls was a bigger factor than anticipated; the Suns also seem to have hit the wall as far as

 

Richmond v Geelong at MCG  Sunday August 14 (3.20pm)
This looks like a week to tip certs, but there is reluctance to get carried away; but here is the first of 2; the Cats really should win this; they seem to be getting back into a bit of form and probably cruised last week vs Dons in an easy kill; this week they play a Tiger team that did very well last week; but their opponents had injuries on the night and the win was perhaps not as great as it looked (but vitally important – given the pressure on the coach and club); don’t expect them to back it up after a relaxing weekend off; Cats by 31 points and certs
Post match review:  Cats were tipped by 31 points and they won by 4; analysis was a long way off; lucky to get out of it with the correct tip; apologies for anyone who tipped the Cats as certs; the Tigers were really terrific …and handled the 9 day break really well; perhaps the Cats went into this just expecting to get the four points – and they did – by four points!

 

Fremantle v Adelaide at Subiaco Oval Sunday August 14  (4.40pm)
The Dockers got Sandilands back last week and they play the Crows without Jacobs; this is about the best bit of news for those out west; they won’t win this one – despite having 3 weeks in a row at home; the Crows are flying and look a good chance for a top 2 finish; they will win this one by 38 points and CERTS of the week
Post match review:  Crows were tipped by 38 points and they won by 72; analysis was fair only; the Crows were correctly tipped as certs of the week and were never in doubt; but the margin tip was a fair way off; big Sandilands really struggled in this game and was later benched with an injury; so much for this being an advantage for the Dockers in the absence of Crow Jacobs!

 

Certs: only Crows (never in doubt) and Cats (got out of jail with a huge 4q) this week (treading very warily as on a long wining sequence) 

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): A tough week for the 50/50; Pies to win or to lose by less than 15 points (looked likely for most of the night to get within 15) ; Dees to win or to lose by less than 11 points (never in doubt)

Technical Analysis prior to R21, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 12 Aug 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was almost spot on; I hope I talked someone out of labelling the Hawks as stone bonker certs; the Dees led by 11 points at the first break, looked like being overrun but then powered away at the end (all this from the one team to lose to the Bombers – a funny game, isn’t it?).

The Suns did much better than expected and this may be due to the Giants being travel-weary; but Port was poor – as expected – and I will give myself a bit tick for that one

 This week, I will go back to the Hawthorn Carlton game in R19; the Blues did much better than expected in their 19 point loss in tough conditions; then both teams underperformed the following week; of interest is that the Blues underperfomed by 62 points and the Hawks by 59! I would expect both teams to be better this week; while both team may outperform expectations, what often happens is that one team in particular excels; so I will go for the combination of the Hawks and Blues outperforming expectations by a total of 30 points or more; both are favoured to win by about 19/20 points, so their combined winning margins would be expected to be 50 points plus.

The Blues are a bit of a concern, because they are on a GOOD, SHOCKER, 3rd week pattern and lower teams often play poorly in the 3rd week (but the Lions may also be in a “coach is almost gone” mode and not do well).


Then the team they played last week (Dees and Saints) may possibly underperform this week; I expect that the Saints may be the more likely ones to drop their bundle; I expect the Swans to win by 5 goals plus.

The Dees may, perhaps, underperform, but their opponents (Port) find themselves on a GOOD, SHOCKER, 3rd week pattern and this game comes before their Showdown.  So Longggey appears to be correct in making that one an EXTREME game.

The Pies also find themselves on a GOOD, SHOCKER, 3rd week pattern; again, this is a minus; but, because their bad loss was a Friday night Shocker – and because there was so much press about the Tigers – and because the Dogs pulled one out against the odds last week (with North copping more injuries), I am just going to watch this one without a “tip”.

Round 22, 2016 (all times are AET) 

Tipping results for R21: Supertipping: 6 out of 9 (pretty good) for a total of 132 +4 bonus = 136 and ranking improved from 1,078 to 802  out of 44,499 tipsters (top 2%) 

Streak: 2/2 (with Cats getting out of jail & Crows winning easily) so streak now up to 23 ; ranking improved from 844 to 586 (top 2%); a pretty tough week for the streak – minefields everywhere, with the Giants, Blues Suns and Port all losing – plus the Dogs & Cats just barely getting there

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there are now down from 8 to 4 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive – tough luck for those who had a favorite go down this week

50/50: 2/2 (with the Pies getting close enough to be a “winner” and the Dees winning); now at 23/50 = a poor but improving 46%; 

Early thoughts for R22: the certs appear to be, at this stage, the Cats, Dogs and Giants; others to be tipped at this stage are the Swans, Pies, Crows, Dees, with the Eagles / Hawks and Tigers / Saints too both 50/50 type games

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 WCE HAW SUBI  HAW  2   EXTREME  No outsider here
2 NMFC SYD HOBART  SYD  11   HIGH  A chance
3 RICH STK MCG  RICH  13   EXTREME  No outsider here
4 GWS FREO OLY PARK  GWS  78   HIGH  No hope
5 COLL GCS DCKLNDS  COLL  24   EXTREME  A tiny hope
6 PORT ADEL ADEL  ADEL  39   HIGH  No hope
7 CARL MELB MCG  MELB  21   EXTREME  A tiny hope
8 BRIS GEEL GABBA  GEEL  50   HIGH  No hope
9 ESS WBD DCKLNDS  WBD  37   HIGH  A tiny hope

 

ROUND 22

 Friday August 19

 

West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn at Subiaco Oval  Friday August 19 (8.10pm)
A shower or two for this game. This match is crucial for the Hawks if they are to claim top spot; a Loss could see them drop as far as fourth and send then interstate in the first week of finals; the Eagles have some chance of a top four finish – or maybe a home final in spot 5 or 6 – if they win; but they have a much tougher R23 match than the Hawks (vs Pies R23) when they travel for play the Crows on Friday night.  Some doubts exist on a few Hawks, so watch for late changes; the Eagles were saved by Nicnat last week and have looked better with him in the side.  Much has been made of the Hawks having the “edge” over the Eagles – having won their last 2 meetings by exactly 46 points (and both at the MCG).  Surprisingly, the Hawks started as underdogs in their R2 meeting this year. The experts are pretty much split on this one. It’s worth remembering that the Eagles had no trouble with Hawthorn in F1 last year at Subi – so it’s hard to imagine that the Eagles’ problem is a mental one – maybe so at the MCG, but not at Subi; with both sides being unconvincing  considering their ladder positions, it’s almost a toss-up; the Eagles had injuries to both Wellingham and Lycett last week and both may need to pass fitness tests; th eHawks are unchanged (so far) – with Sicily not back in after a suspension – just an emergency – which makes one wonder if there is going to be a late change; the Eagles won with 2 seconds on the clock last week; there is a danger that the emotion of this win could be deflating for them; but, then again, they would have pencilled in this rematch immediatelyt after R2; muddying the water is the both opponents last week (Roos and Giants) were down for varying reasons; this makes it an EXTREME variance game; Hawks just – by 2 points, but watch for late changes; tip may change!
Post match review:  Hawks were tipped by 2 points but the Eagles won by 25; analysis was a fair way off (bad), but the call of EXTREME variance was correct (with the Eagles getting out to a 41 point lead at 3QT and it could have been more!  The absence of Langford (replaced by Sicily – see above – who was fair) was almost enough to change the tip in a tough one to tip; the error in the analysis was mainly about the ability of the Eagles to bounce back from the low after the emotional high of winning with a few seconds to go against GWS the previous week; in retrospect, they had pencilled this one in after the humiliating R2 loss to the Hawks; and, as is often the case with such losses, the revenge can come early in the game and be decisive.  Jetta came in and he faded out late – but was great when the game was up for grabs – scoring 43 of 57 DT points in 1H.  The tragic losses of Ceglar and Nicnat (for the whole year, it seems) evened out; Gibson played a defensive role on Darling and this really didn’t suit the Hawks as it stole some of their run from defence; the horrible jumper cost the Hawks a few goals!!

 

 Saturday August 20 

 

North Melbourne v Sydney Swans at Blundstone Arena Saturday August 20  (1.45pm)
Possible shower and moderate breezes. Gibson copped a facial injury in the gym this week but is expected to play – despite a gash to his face; Brown and Thompson return for the Roos, but both may need a fitness test; watch for news. The Roos were 9 and 0 earlier and are now in danger of missing the finals (if they lose both remaining games and the Dees win both); while some say that they had an easy run early and that is why they are losing now, the truth is that they had significant mid-season injuries.  It appears that they won’t recover enough to be a major player in the finals – with some key players likely to be available for finals but underdone.  Conversely, the Swans are building nicely for a premiership tilt.  If they win this one, they are a chance for a top 2 finish – with a R23 home game against Richmond.  Tippett returns and may be a bit underdone; although the Swans seem to on a roll toward a flag, the danger is that they are travelling 2 weeks in a row; Swans by 11 points
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 11 points and they won by 9; analysis was pretty good here – with many tipping a much easier win by the Swans; injuries to Franklin and Thompson almost evened out for both teams; the Swans looked to break away a few times, but the Roos kept reeling them in – without ever getting in front after QT; despite the loss, the Roos found out next day that they were safe in the 8; rarely have Roos fans liked Carlton so much!

 

Richmond v St Kilda at MCG Saturday August 20  (2.10pm)
A shower or two for this game and breezy. Coach Hardwick was under huge pressure 2 rounds ago, but a win over the Pies (coming from 4 goals down) and three quarters of great stuff against the Cats has them feeling positive towards season’s end; their big improver in 2016 is Shaun Hampson – relishing the role as number one ruckman; he is even clunking one grab marks in pressure situations.  He won’t have Tom Hickey to deal with this week – and this should help the Tigers to a win. Homes comes in for Hickey and Longer is an emergency; neither have starred at VFL level, but Longer would’ve been expected to get the nod; maybe a late change coming?  But the level of confidence is not that high – as there is a chance they could be flat after last’s week’s almost heroics.  The Saints are on a good week (big win over the Blues in R20), shocker (last week vs Swans), 3rd week pattern.  The third week is usually a downer for middle of the road teams late in a season.  Jack Steven has been struggling of late and may be carrying an injury – but nothing official to report – just looking at his dropping numbers.  It was expected that the Tigers would be favourites, but the Saints had got the nod from the experts in a close one.  The Tigers really should be favourites here.  Richmond by 13 points, but EXTREME variance
Post match review: Tigers were tipped by 13 points but the Saints won by 9; analysis was a bit off here; the Saints were expected to be poor – which was correct; but the Tigers were worse; it was labelled as an absolute shocker by Bruce Eva on 3AW (who barracks for the Saints and STILL regretted going to the game); it appears that the Tigers were flat after being overrun last weekend; Martin and Cotchin copped minor knocks and scored 82 & 74 SC points; McCartin ended an injury-plagued year when he broke his collar-bone; the ruck advantage of the Tigers did not translate into extra scoring chances for them

 

GWS Giants v Fremantle at Homebush  Saturday August 20 (4.35pm)
The rain forecast for the day will probably be finished by game time & a bit breezy. See Penny’s preview below; the Giants are certs in this contest.  The Dockers are way down on personnel and are, understandably, resting Pav for his Subi farewell; the Giants will relish back to back home games after an extensive road stint; the Dockers lose Sandilands as well (hopefully to return for Pav in R23); trouble seems to be brewing at the Dockers – with staff leaving & talk of players leaving. Giants are certs of the week and are tipped to win by 78 points
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 78 points and they won by 92; analysis was pretty good as most were only tipping the Giants by 11 goals; the Giants were, indeed, certs of the week; not much to say here

 

Collingwood v Gold Coast Suns at Docklands  Saturday August 20 (7.25pm)
The Suns are likely to be savage that they lost to the lowly Bombers last weekend; but they were travelling and had a longer injury list than Essendon; the last team to lose to Essendon (Dees in R2) excelled the following week and almost beat the Roos in Hobart.  But the Suns have to travel 2 weeks in a row on a 6 day break – with tired players.  Malceski didn’t make it back from injury; They can lift, but we are looking at conflicting technical patterns here; it will make this game an EXTREME variance one and the temptation to pick the Pies as certs will be resisted.  Other reasons not to get too excited about Collingwood is that they have lost Adams for the year – and that they could be flat after a narrow loss to the Dogs on a Friday night last weekend.  They now have almost as severe an injury problem as the Suns; Sexton is back from a corkie, but may still be a chance to miss; the Suns other 2 INS did well in the NEAFL last week; Pies by 24 points
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 24 points and they won by 71; analysis was fair; the EXTREME variance call was right (sorry to NOT put it in the table on Friday); the Pies should’ve win this by more – having booted 0:9 in 4Q; the Pies had 2 players under 50 SC points (including the injured Moore); the Suns had 10 of them (including the concussed Lemmens); it appears that the combination of 2 games back to back in Victoria as well as the huge injury list got the better of the Suns; in retrospect, the Pies were certs very early on

 

Port Adelaide v Adelaide at Adelaide Oval  Saturday August 20 (7.40pm)
A possible shower for this game and breezy. T
his appears to be a potentially lop-sided Showdown – with the Crows flying and Port struggling for form and fitness; Wingard goes out for the year and Dixon + Austin both go out injured; Schulz comes in, but has not been setting the world on fire in the SANFL since he returned from injury.  A positive for Port is that this is their “Grand Final” in 2016, while Adelaide has a more important final to consider. And, also, the Crows had to come back from a Perth Sunday game.  Jacobs returns and appears likely to be okay.  The disparity between the injury lists gives Port little chance; Crows by 39 points and certs
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 39 points and they won by 15; analysis was so-so; it was mentioned (but under-estimated) that this was the Grand Final for Port – and they were really UP for it; Smith copped an accidental kick to the head – which slowed him up considerably; Crows looking good for a home final

 

 Sunday August 21 

 

Carlton v Melbourne at MCG Sunday August 21  (1.10pm)
A few showers for this game and breezy. The Dees may be on a roll here as coach Roos nears the end.  If so, they should dispose of the Blues with relative ease.  Murphy was a chance to return this week, but is not back, while Cripps was listed as a test but is expected to play; the Blues have lost 9 in a row.  The Dees have won 3 in a row and it should’ve been 4 – as they threw the game away vs the Eagles in Perth.  All this seems to suggest that they will be certs.  But here is why they won’t be tipped as such.  Hogan was ill and didn’t train Wednesday; Garlett also missed with a skin infection and faces a Friday fitness test.  But the main reason is that the Dees beat the Hawks 2 weeks ago and then “had to back that win up” against Port last week.  They did that with ease.  But Port had injury troubles on the day. And now there is a chance that they might be too over-confident against an “easy kill”.  That concern makes this as EXTREME variance game; Dees by 21 points
Post match review: Dees were tipped by 21 points but the Blues won by 20; analysis was not that good – with the wrong team being selected; Cripps played and totally starred; once more the Dees have lost as favourites – after winning three in a row (first one barely as a hot favourite) – and then another 2 in a row as outsiders. Hogan did okay, while Garlett did not play; the EXTREME variance call was correct, because the Blues were 22 point outsiders and won by 20

 

Brisbane Lions v Geelong at Gabba Sunday August 21  (3.20pm)
This is Merrett’s last home game – as he retires at year’s end. Bell was supposed to be gone for the year, but is back in R22 – possibly could have been given a rest, but the Lions list is thin.  The Cats escaped Houdini-like last week, but probably would have been unlucky to lose in a way – dominating inside 50s; they should continue on from where they left off and have a big win here; the Lions may offer resistance at times; but Cats certs by 50 points
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 50 points and they won by 60; analysis was okay here and the Cats were never going to lose after the flying start; of interest (see below) is that their pattern was very similar to the Dogs – win 1Q big and then were beaten in 2Q, before winning 2H; Merrett was serviceable in his last home game ever; Menegola continued his good late season form

 

Essendon v Western Bulldogs at Docklands  Sunday August 21 (4.40pm)
Cooney plays his 250th and maybe last game against his old team. But with Stokes playing his 200th and last game this weekend, maybe Cooney will play R23 as well. Goddard is still out with injury. The Bombers had a great – and unexpected – win last Sunday, but it is hard to make a case for them beating the Dogs this weekend; the best hope that they have is if the Dogs are still half asleep after their 9 day break; the Bombers snapped a huge losing streak last weekend; however, lowly teams that do this later in a season – and by a small margin often slightly outperform expectations; it shouldn’t really concern Bulldog fans; they could be labelled certs, but won’t be (because this website is sitting on a wining streak of 23); the Dogs will have one eye on the trip west for the Pav farewell game, but they are tipped here by 37 points
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 37 points and they won by 40; analysis was reasonably good, but the Dogs probably should have been labelled as CERTS; they virtually had the game won at QT (up 30 points) and then won the final 3Q by only 10 points; it was a regulation win for the Dogs; it isn’t ideal to have a Friday night game followed by a Sunday “easy kill” win; it looks like they were desperate to put the game away early off the 9 day break – and then had a flat 2Q; they lost Wood to injury in 3Q; the Dons were reasonably good in defeat; Cooney scored a creditable 75 Sc points in his 250th game (against his old team)

Certs: Giants, Crows and Cats (all three won – with only the Crows having a real fight on their hands)

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): A risky one, but Tigers to win (wrong) & Giants by over 69 points (got there eventually)

 

Technical Analysis prior to R22, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 17 Aug 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was mixed; the Hawsk exceeded expectations – as I expected, but the risk was the Blues and they were truly woeful early (and the Lions were not in a “sack the coach” phase – even though he may be out at year’s end, judging by the rumours in the press)

My tip on the Swans was spot on – big tick for that one

 This week, the Giants are the tea in focus; many had them as flag winners a few weeks ago – based on their good run home; but then they just barely got over the line against the Suns away and followed it up with a loss to the Eagles at home in a game they really should have iced.  Now people will jump off somewhat – because they are a young list and tired towards season’s end; don’t fall for that just yet.  They may be getting slightly tired, but their slow down loss this week will provide a huge boost; teams that do this often do extra well the following week – especially as favourites. A good example of this is the Roos in 2013; they were 5 goals up on the Crows late n the contest and lost by a point.  The following week, they played the Saints and were favoured to win by about 4 goals; they booted 9:7 to 1:0 in the first term and won by 68 points (so won the final three quarters by 13 points); the opposite trend would be expected (ie that they would focus on FINISHING strongly), but maybe the fear of loss drives them to put it beyond doubt very early; they are expected to win this one by 57 points; I reckon they will win by over 70 and be 40+ up at half time

 

Round 23, 2016 (all times are AET) 

Tipping results for R22: Supertipping: 6 out of 9 (not flash) for a total of 138 +4 bonus = 142 and ranking dropped from 802 to 1,224  out of 44,499 tipsters (top 2%) 

Streak: 3/3 (with Cats, Crows & Giants all winning) so streak now up to 26 ; ranking improved from 586 to 369 (top 2%); an okay week for the streak – so long as you weren’t tempted by the Dees

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there is now a winner – well done to whoever it was

50/50: 1/2 (with the Tigers losing – loser, but the Giants inning by heaps – winner); now at 24/52 = a poor 46%; 

Early thoughts for R23: the certs appear to be, at this stage, the Swans and Saints; others to be tipped are Crows, Cats, Blues, Port, Giants, Dogs and Hawks; a tough round if you need to catch up on a leader!

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 ADEL WCE ADEL  ADEL  16   HIGH  A small chance
2 GEEL MELB GEEL  GEEL  14   HIGH  A small chance
3 ESS CARL MCG  CARL  22   EXTREME  A small chance
4 SYD RICH SCG  SYD  41   HIGH  No hope
5 GCS PORT GLD CST  PORT  20   HIGH  A small chance
6 NMFC GWS DCKLNDS  GWS  10   EXTREME  A small chance
7 STK BRIS DCKLNDS  STK  35   EXTREME  No hope
8 HAW COLL MCG  HAW  21   HIGH  A small chance
9 FREO WBD SUBI  WBD  14   HIGH  A small chance

 

ROUND 23

 

Friday August 26

Adelaide v West Coast Eagles at Adelaide Oval Friday August 26  (8.10pm)
There is no Nicnat and Lycett was considered a risk, but all reports from the west is that he is okay; but Giles comes in to assist; the Crows are flying but now have Smith & Sloane out – plus Seedsman is yet to return; a win would guarantee a home final for the Eagles – or 4th if Hawthorn and the Giants both lose (a long shot); the Crows play a home final with a win – and could drop as low as 5th with a loss; it’s hard to see the Crows losing – despite losing Sloane for a week; but the experts maybe are just a bit too over-excited about the Crows; perhaps they assume that the loss of Nicnat is worse than the loss of Sloane for the Crows; it may be; but the Crows won’t be tipped as certs; Crows by 16 points
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 16 points but the Eagles won by 29; analysis was a long way off; the bad points of the analysis were that the wrong team was tipped and that the variance call (HIGH) was clearly wrong – as this was a definite EXTREME variance call; the huge plus for the Eagles was the great form of “insurance” ruckman Giles – 123 SC points and clearly beat Jacobs (clever ploy, this – to have us all think that Nicnat was going to be the main player for the Eagles and then slip Giles in as the wild card); this was critical as Lycett had a sore knee and was managed through the game; did the Crows get a bit ahead of themselves? They have won a flag from 5th before!!  Maybe the absence of Sloane, Smith and Seedsman took its toll, but they were still very disappointing.

 

 

 

Saturday August 27

Geelong v Melbourne at GEEL Saturday August 27   (1.45pm)
The Dees beat Geelong in Geelong last year & Gawn came of age in that contest; recently, the Dees beat Hawthorn (whole world knows about that one), then Port and then lost to the Blues; the one thing they need to tidy up now is to perform under the weight of expectation.  They generally go well the week after losing as favourites (well, recently, anyway) and the burden of making finals is gone; the Cats are plating like finalists but not premiers at present; but their side looks better now with Bartel, Caddy and Menzel coming back in; it’s enough to tip the Cats, but not with extreme confidence; maybe the loss to the Dees at Geelong will be an extra spur; but, of course, they will need to win to stay in the top 4 (with the teams who can replace them playing after this game); Cats by 14 points but not certs (late – Scott, not Joel, Selwood is the Friday late withdrawal)

Post match review: Cats were tipped by 14 points and they won by 111; analysis was dreadful, but still tipped the winner; it appears that the Dees may have dropped their bundle after losing to the Blues last week and kissing their finals hopes good-bye; of interest is that the Dees won down at Geelong last year (first time in ages) and this seem to annoy the Cats – who were up by over 6 goals at QT; Kent was a late withdrawal for the Dees – replaced by Matt Jones, Nathan Jones carried a sore hammie through most of the game; greenhorn Weideman struggled for the Dees; Menzel cam back from injury and totally starred for Geelong.  One more note: the Dees played the Blues last week and both teams dreadfully underperformed this week

 

Essendon v Carlton at MCG Saturday August 27  (2.10pm)
The Bombers are going to have some sort of “thank you” to their loyal fans after the game this weekend – who deserve some recognition for their resilience.  The question is: will this be a positive motivator for the team?  Maybe. The Dons can also avoid he wooden spoon if they win and the Lions lose – provided that the combined margins exceeds 90 points (approx – varies depending on margin and total scores).   The Blues were expected to snap their long losing streak in R21 vs the Lions but finally did it last weekend as an outsider against the Dees. Everything tends to point to them finishing the season off with another win; Cooney and Stokes have both retired for the Dons and Jamar has been dropped and will play ammos next season.  The Bombers have been competitive in defeat recently – plus an upset win over an injury-depleted Suns line-up; the negative about the Blues is that their upset win last week was by 20 points and they went about 40 above expectations; both these numbers for a team breaking a decent run of losses are negative; it gives the Dons a slight chance; the game is one to avoid & will be marked as EXTREME variance; Blues by 22 points but not certs
Post match review: Blues were tipped by 22 points but the Bombers won by 24; analysis was not that flash; well, there were some positives; firstly, the Blues were NOT tipped as certs (correct); and the variance was correctly labelled as EXTREME; but the bit above in green (only coloured green AFTER the weekend) was not given enough credence; it wouldn’t have been enough to tip the Bombers outright, but it should have lessened the level of confidence in Carlton; “lacked the appetite to defend”, said Blues coach Bolton; looks like the Blues relaxed a bit for the last game after the good win against the Dees.  Kerridge returned from injury for the Blues and was not at his best; the Bombers appear to have been really UP for this game as they thanked their loyal fans (after the game); one more note: the Dees played the Blues last week and both teams dreadfully underperformed this week

 

Sydney Swans v Richmond at SCG Saturday August 27  (4.35pm)
The Swans have to win to get a home final; the Tigers scored an unlikely win over the Swans in Sydney in 2014 to sneak into the finals; but the more recent occurrence was at the MCG in R8 when the Tigers snapped a 6 game losing streak to beat the Swans with a kick after the siren.  Had the Swans won that day, then top spot would be all but sewn up now.  Expect them to be “out for revenge” this week for the rematch. The Tigers are no hope this time – with any element of surprise all gone; there may be some doubt on Buddy playing as he didn’t train on Thursday; watch for news; in any case, the Swans are certs and are tipped to win by 41 points
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 41 points and they won by 113; analysis was miles off – with the Swans getting off to a flier (see Penny’s preview below) and going right on with the job; common tators said that the Tigers looked disinterested; their coach noted that they were playing a side with a view to the future; despite concerns, Buddy played and starred; the positives was that the Swasn were correctly tipped as certs; the huge win meant that the variance was also incorrectly forecast – it turned out to be EXTREME

 

Gold Coast Suns v Port Adelaide at GLD CST  Saturday August 27  (7.25pm)
Port has injury worries but not as many as the Suns; see Penny’s write-up below on this; Port was good last week in their 2016 “grand final”, but often underperform after a Showdown; the weakness of the Suns’ line-up makes this look relatively safe; there is a danger that Port may have clocked out for the year, but they will be tipped to win by 20 points and almost certs
Post match review: Port was tipped by 20 points and they won by 23; analysis was close to spot on; Port looked likely to break the game right open on a few occasions, but the Suns bravely hung in for a respectable loss; each team lost a player in 3Q (Davis for the Suns and Austin for Port), while Ports debutantes Snelling (64 SC) and Bonner (76) were serviceable; Fiorini scored 125 in his second game for the Suns and may be one to watch in 2017

 

North Melbourne v GWS Giants at Docklands Saturday August 27  (7.25pm)
This game is full of irony; coach Scott rested heaps of players last year (along with Freo) and so the R24 bye was created to avoid such happenings; this year, the Roos want to play players – because they are coming back from injury; in come Higgins and McDonald – needing match time before the finals; others such as Waite, Wright and Jacobs might be back in the senior team soon; then there is all the turmoil about the four players about to be shown the door; the Roos don’t need a win as they are stuck in 8th; a win may perhaps give them a Victorian final against the Dogs; a loss might see them play a team two games in a row for the second year in succession (last year Richmond in R23 and F1); the Giants are back on track now and should probably win this one; but the game will be labelled as EXTREME variance and might be the best one to tip an outsider if you absolutely must; Giants by 10 points
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 10 points and they won by 37; analysis was fair; the EXTREME calls were virtually all wrong this weekend – with this one being in the HIGH range; the interest was in Higgins and McDonald coming back for their first senor games in ages; Higgins struggled after an early (but not serious, it seems) knock to the knee; Mcdonald was quite good; the Giants look to be back on track after their slowdown against the Eagles and an easy win over Freo.

 

 

 Sunday August 28

 

St Kilda v Brisbane Lions at Docklands Sunday August 28 (1.10pm)
If the Saints win by 20 goals and the Roos lose by that margin, the Saints will be in the eight!  and to think they could’ve / should’ve beaten the Hawks – which would have given them a genuine chance of playing finals.

Coach Leppitsch met the board last Tuesday night in an attempt to coach on next year; but his win / loss record is likely to count against him and many expect the board to tip him out next week.

The Saints recorded their most unimpressive win for the year against Richmond in a match where the standard was very low; they maybe played worse than the previous week when the Swans beat them by heaps.  Sometimes, these types of wins are followed by a huge improvement.  Given that the Lions are likely to lose their coach, a huge Saints win is a distinct possibility.  If it happens, the Saints are more likely to blitz early.  This will be given an EXTREME variance rating – mainly because the Lions could really hit the skids – more so than the chance of an upset win; Saints by 35 points and will be just tipped as certs
Post match review: Saints were tipped by 35 points and they won by 58; analysis was not that good; the variance call was AGAIN wrong; the positives were that the winner was tipped (nothing to brag about there) and that they were correctly tipped as certs; the Lions didn’t totally roll over and narrowly (by a small percentage gap) avoided the wooden spoon; Nick Riewoldt marked everything in sight and kicked 9 goals – scoring 187 SC points (and 200DT!) in the process; it was the second time a Saints player had booted a bag against the Lions in the final round, with Stephen Milne kicking 11 a few years ago; perhaps the Saints could’ve won by more as they had 3 players who copped knocks to varying degrees

 

Hawthorn v Collingwood at MCG Sunday August 28  (3.20pm)
The Pies demolished the Suns last weekend the week after they had a gallant loss to the Dogs; it appears that the Suns finally hit the wall (as predicted a few weeks earlier by coach Eade).  While this needs to be taken into account, the win was impressive to a degree.  The Hawks have lost 2 of the last three to slip from a game clear on top to 4th (courtesy of a poor percentage).  Had they been a team with a recent flag win, the experts would have been writing them off as a goner in 2016.  They generally bounce back from losses well; they do look a bit vulnerable but maybe the Pies are a bit too injured themselves to take full advantage; Cloke plays maybe his last ever game for the Pies, while Goldsack and Macaffer are on the 7 man IC bench and may come in for their final games; the Hawks will virtually know their fate by game time – with the Giants and Eagles overtaking them if they win and the Hawks lose; the Dogs can also overtake the Hawks if the Pies can cause an upset; given that the Hawks had a FNS Friday Night Shocker last week (or close to it anyway), they can probably find enough to win here; Schoenmakers comes back in after a long injury break and a couple of VFL games; Hawks by 21 points but not certs
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by  points and they won by 1; analysis was fair; the positives were that they were not tipped as certs (which was tempting for some and those who did had some anxious moments); once more, the variance was incorrectly tipped; this one was EXTREME – with sudden momentum changes; Aish went off for the Pies in 2Q with a hammie, while Schoenmakers struggled in his first game back for the Hawks after a couple of VFL games; he may be improved by the run; Cloke kicked 2 and was okay in possibly his last game for the Pies; Goldsack battled in his final game; the Hawks were lucky to just sneak over the line – thanks to Fitzpatrick

 

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs at Subi Sunday August 28  (4.40pm)
The Pav plays his farewell game at home and he is much loved; but his team has lost 8 in a row and will be outsiders here; a plus for them is that they are playing a team (Dogs) who have lots of injury concerns; it gives Freo (who have had a shocker of a year themselves with injury) a small chance; Sandilands returns along with the Pav + Dawson back from suspension; the Dogs won the game early last week against the Dons and just marked time after that; this is a slight danger game for them, but they will know where they will finish with a win (well, by half time anyway) and so they are likely to have incentive (probably in the form of the Eagles losing and so the Dogs would host the Eagles in F1 with a win and travel to Perth to play them if they lose); Dogs by 14 points but not certs; Friday afternoon – some doubts on Neale playing for the Dockers; watch for updates on the AFL website when teams are announced.
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 14 points but the Dockers won by 20; analysis was fair; what shocked the Dogs was the upset win by the Eagles on Friday night; that meant that the Dogs – who were originally playing for a home elimination final based on the the favourites winning – were suddenly playing for almost nothing; well, there was a small chance that they could move to 6th and the Hawks 7th if Collingwood won – and then they would need to beat the Dockers by enough to make up percentage; to kill off any fairy-tale for the Dogs, they found out at half time that the Hawks had won by a point; but all that takes some credit away from the Dockers who were pretty good on the day; Pav came back and all went to script – he managed to get the one goal he needed to get to 700 career goals – the Dogs may have handed it to him with a minute to go, but he got it in 1Q; inclusions Sandilands & De Boer did well numerically; Neale was rumoured to be in doubt but played and racked up lots of stats as usual; the Dogs’ injuries are starting to catch up with them

 

Certs: Swans and Saints (both had little trouble)

Outsiders – for those needing to catch one up: Some people can change their tips mid round (eg in footytips.com.au); others need to lock them in on Friday afternoon; for the latter, the Roos are a huge risk but may be the best outsider; if you either need a second roughie or you need a different roughie, then options might be the Eagles, Dees and Dockers; for those who can view and change game by game, maybe have a look at things before the Roos game and also before the Dogs game.  If you go for an outsider, you need to ensure that don’t risk losing too much END OF SEASON CASH if things go wrong; if you cannot lose your spot, then you can go more aggressively for an outsider. (the Roos struggled and so did the Dees, but the Eagles and Dockers made people happy out west and also helped a few tipsters out as well)

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Not a good week for this exercise, but Dees to win or to lose by less than 30 points (gone before QT!!)

Technical Analysis prior to R23, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 26 Aug 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was almost perfect, but the Giants blitzed late rather than early; 6 out of 10!

This week will be short and sweet; the Suns are too injured plus are playing Lynch + Ah Chee who need a rest; their injury quotient is >35 and this gives them no hope; the experts are tipping Port by about 3 goals; they will win by over 5!  Also (added Friday afternoon) I reckon that the Swans – because they had such a shock loss to Richmond earlier this year – will fly out of the blocks in order to put this one away quickly; I expect them to be >2 goals up at quarter time and >5 goals up at half time.