Round 21, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R21, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 20 Aug 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: well, the Pies slightly outperformed expectations, but didn’t fly out of the blocks; and Port struggled a bit but won – but not by as much as I expected; a disappointing weekend for me; sorry I couldn’t assist

This week, I am writing AFTER the team selections. This is a bit unusual and I apologise to the legion of fans who may have looked yesterday for my synopsis.

But I’m glad I waited; because something unusual happened in the team selections.  The Saints lost a massive seven players to injury at the selection table. These include Armitage, Dempster & Longer.  The INS are reasonable – so the experts have now picked the Cats by about 4 goals after going for about a 3 goal margin earlier in week.

This is not enough; the only time a team has won with 7 forced changes was…. St Kilda back in 2009.  But they were the top team then.  Any time a middle to lower team has this many changes, they tend to “get beaten up pretty bad” (as the yanks tend to say).

I’m now tipping the Cats as complete certs and they should win by over 6 goals.  I will watch Holmes with interest – because of the historical significance of the event.

Next, the Dees!  Paul Roos said in the post match presser that he gave them a couple of days off prior to the Dogs game last week.  They played like a team coming off the bye and only waking up at half time (and then throwing in the towel at the last change).  Invariably, teams that put in a shocker after the bye exceed expectations the week after.  Given the fact that they are playing Carlton, I expect them to win well – by over 4 goals.