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Round 21, 2015

Round 21, 2015

SuperTipping results for R20: 8 winners for a total of 128 + 2 bonus pts = 122 and ranking improved from 575 to 531 out of 46,943 tipsters (top 1% – elite)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 2 out of 2 (with the Roos and Port winning well enough).  Streak is now up to 18. Ranking worsened from 222 to 289 (again – because others were more aggressive and most favourites won) and in top 2% (excellent).

50/50 tips: 1 out of 2 for the week (with the Pies getting close enough, but the Cats falling away late) and 21 out of 52 for the year = a result of a poor 40% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.  There are now only 33 tipsters left in the Gauntlet

Down the gurgler in R12 in the Pick 5 – along with most others. There are now  176 tipsters remain in the Pick 5

From now on, those still in the Gauntlet comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear. 

Early thoughts for R21: the Hawks and Crows appear to be the best certs at this stage; keen on the Dees to win; other favourites to be tipped would be the Tigers; Swans, Suns & Cats; The Roos / Dockers game is line ball, while the Eagles face a danger game against the Dogs.

Round 21, 2015

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 HAW PORT MCG HAW 46 HIGH No hope at all
2 COLL RICH MCG RICH 20 EXTREME A small chance
3 GWS SYD Homebush SYD 4 HIGH A big hope
4 GCS ESS Gold Coast GCS 11 EXTREME A definite chance
5 STK GEEL Docklands GEEL 44 HIGH No hope at all
6 ADEL BRIS ADEL ADEL 51 HIGH No hope at all
7 NMFC FREO Docklands FREO 7 EXTREME No real outsider here
8 CARL MELB MCG MELB 16 HIGH A small chance
9 WCE WBD Subi WCE 19 HIGH A small chance

 

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

 

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1        HAW           vs.      PORT         Docklands   Fri, 21 August 7:20 pm

The Hawks are certs

There was some thought a while ago that this could be a danger game for the Hawks.  But Port has not shown enough to be able to challenge; and now they send off JacksonTrengove for an early op.

Matthew Lobbe was not promoted this week – he is an emergency for the game.

 

Apart from Will Langford not being back yet, all else is going nicely for the Hawks as they attempt to gain 2nd spot. With rounds 22 & 23 looking even easier than this one, they should be able to focus enough to get the job done.  Lack of concentration is the only danger, really.

 

The Hawks by 46 points and certs
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 46 points but Port won by 22; analysis was woeful; what went wrong?  It seemed that the Hawks were “safe” after beating the Cats last week – leaving their run home to be Port (who lost to the Dogs by >10 goals in their last trip to Melbourne), Lions and Blues; so the Hawks could afford to relax; and they did; Port recovered from a shocker against the Dogs and won well enough against the Giants last weekend.  of interest is that Port were 73 points better than expected and the Giants 78 points worse; Port pulled a swifty by cloning Robbie Gray; his clone Sam was tremendous!  The scoreline was that of an EXTREME variance game – yet another cross (ie not a tick) for the analysis; insert frown here! Added 26 Aug: also, there was the Ratten tragedy – Robert Shaw reckons that the Hawks were flat as a result

 

 

 

2        COLL         vs.      RICH          MCG    Sat, 22 August 1:45 pm

The Tigers, but not certs

Weather: breezy and dry

The problem with this game is assessing the mental state of the Pies and rating their loss against the Swans.

Adam Oxley (VFL) and Tyson Goldsack (injured again) still haven’t made it back into the senior team.

The Pies would have won last week had they kicked straighter; but, then again, the Swans struggled with injuries on the night and gutsed out a win.

 

Will Collingwood be inspired by their “almost win” (after a very so-so effort to beat the Blues by a modest amount the previous week)? Or will they crash back to earth with a thud?  The latter is maybe a tad more likely.

 

Having said that, the Tigers’ win last week was made easier by the fact that the Suns had multiples injuries.  Even so, the Tigers look better placed than the Pies here.

 

But the doubts about Collingwood – and some slight doubts about the merit of the Tigers’ R20 win – will make this an EXTREME variance game.

 

Tigers by 20 points, but not certs
Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 20 points and they won by 91; analysis was better than it looked; this is because the game was labelled EXTREME variance – and with the Tigers winning by 70+ points more than expected, it definitely qualified as an EXTREME variance game. It appears that the Pies were totally flattened after losing their winnable game against Sydney last weekend.  That explains the flat start and also them playing like they threw in the towel late in the contest.

 

 

3        GWS vs.     SYD  Homebush  Sat, 22 August 2:10 pm

The Swans, but a danger game

Weather: slight chance of a shower; breezy; humidity could be high in the latter part of the game

This is a game to avoid – if you can.

 

Buddy and Ben McGlynn are still out for the Swans – and now they also lose Tom Mitchell (an eye injury at training), Gary Rohan and Luke Parker; Jeremy Laidler was subbed out last week at HT with a hammie complaint; he is “okay” but they may be some doubt on him in terms of both playing and also getting through an entire game.

 

The “ins” are not household names – meaning that the Swans’ injury list is growing.  It makes the game a danger game.  And Mike Pyke is being managed through the year; he would be rested or operated on had he been in a bottom team.

 

For the Giants, Lachie Whitfield may be in some doubt after being injured last week and being listed as “concussion – test” on Tuesday.  And there is some question on the season getting too long for the still quite young team.

 

This is an EXTREME variance game.

 

Swans by 4 points and definitely NOT certs

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 4 points and they won by 89; the analysis was WAAAY off here. It was noted above that GWS played Port last weekend and that Port exceeded expectations by heaps – whereas the Giants underperformed big time.  Maybe it was just a young side having a real shocker.  The coach said that some key indicators have dropped in the last 5 weeks; but it fell away terribly this weekend.  The huge margin meant that it was another EXTREME variance game – and, of course, the Swans played like certs.  Credit to the Swans for lifting themselves out of their little slump with a struggling win over Collingwood and then a huge Battle of the Bridge win.

 

 

4        GCS  vs.      ESS   Metricon Stadium          Sat, 22 August 4:35 pm

The Suns, but don’t like the game

Weather: chance of showers; light winds

Rumour that Brendon Goddard didn’t make the flight and may be out f the team; watch out for news on this one; nothing on Bombers website yet (4.19pm Friday); bombers confirm he is playing now!

This game has “EXTREME variance” written all over it.  There are multiple changes, big injury lists and then there is the James Hird exit.

 

The injury quotients are Suns: 28 and Dons: 26; anything over 20 is alarm bell territory.

 

For the Suns, Rory Thompson comes back, but still no Seb Tape. Jack Martin may need a concussion test to get up and play.

 

Bomber Adam Cooney was expected back after suspension, but an ankle injury will see him miss the rest of the year.

 

“It was a fair shock to most of the boys”, said Brendon Goddard about the James Hied departure. The players were quite emotional after the announcement.  The big question is” how will the team get up after the week they have had (and the year / years).  The players all got together and this may be a big help for them.  It may bring a sense of togetherness.  When they got together after the ASADA (positive) verdict, they came flying out of the blocks against the Swans and Hawks.

 

Of course, there is always the chance that the Bomber players may be flat as compact disks.

 

A Suns win would get them within half a game of Essendon.

 

Leave this game alone if you can; Suns by 11 points

Post Match Review: Suns were tipped by 11 points and they won by 2; analysis was fair; the game was tipped as an EXTREME variance game, but didn’t really play out like one; the reason for the EXTREME call was that nobody really knew what to expect from the Bomber players. in the end, they almost pinched it; Shaun McKernan starring helped!  Rodney Eade thought the Suns almost threw it away and should have won by more!

 

 

5        STK  vs.      GEEL         Docklands   Sat, 22 August 7:20 pm

The Cats are certs (NOW)

Please refer to Penny’s thoughts on this game here:
http://longggey.com/round-21-2015-penny/
This loomed as a danger game early in the week for the Cats.  They still haven’t got Mitch Duncan back.  The surprise was Nathan Vardy coming back in.  He hasn’t been knocking the door down in the VFL, but his height may come in handy as a back-up ruckman.

 

Billy Longer goes out and is replaced by the first ever US born AND RAISED player – Jason Holmes. He will partner with Tom Hickey in the ruck.  While Holmes may do okay, the real problem is that there are seven compulsory OUTS.  As Penny notes, only great teams win with this number of changes.

 

The Cats would have viewed this as a danger game, but no longer (Saints have no Longer).  The Cats by plenty; make it 44 points and certs

Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 44 points and they won by 0 (okay, it was a draw!); analysis was awful; SORRY for tipping them as certs; it was done on the back of the many changes to the Saints team.  But what was NOT given enough weight was that the Cats often underperform the week AFTER a Hawks game; and that also teams battling to make finals often throw a game like this one; nonetheless, it was a shock to see the Saints fly out of the blocks, lose the lead and then manage a draw (and almost won it!). USA recruit Jason Holmes scored 55 SC points – not bad for a debut!

 

 

6        ADEL         vs.      BRIS           ADEL Oval                    Sat, 22 August 7:10 pm

The Crows are certs of the week

Weather: any showers to clear before game time; light winds

The Lions looked pretty good in winning last weekend, but their opposition was not great at all.

 

The Crows are higher rated, have fewer injuries and are playing at home. This is not a game to waste too much time over.

 

Even allowing for the fact that the Bombers were way off their game last weekend, there is no way the Lions could play well enough to win this!

 

The Crows by 51 points and the certs of the week

Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 51 points and they won by 87; analysis was reasonably good here; most people were lulled into Lion optimism by their big win last week; it appears that they caught the Blues on a bog down day – because the Blues were good this week and the Lions poor; the good news is that the Crows were CORRECTLY labelled certs of the week – even if a few other teams won like huge certs.

 

 

7        NMFC         vs.      FREO         Docklands   Sun, 23 August 1:10 pm

The Dockers in a tough one to pick

The Dockers love playing at the Docklands (must be the name!). Their record ast the ground is superior to that of the MCG.

Late breaking news: Nathan Fyfe, Alex Pearce and Lee Spurr all in some doubt; keep your ears open.  You should consider changing your tip  to North if Fyfe is out; or both the other two drop out; but it is still a tough call.  Late breaking news on Sunday 12.50pm: there IS no late breaking news. Fyfe, A Pearce and Spurr are all listed to play and in the starting 21.  The Dockers wil remain the tip, but there i still doubt on whether the three will all be at 100%

 

The form of Michael Barlow is a concern – he was subbed off after 4 possessions last week. If he was back to his best this weekend, it would help the Dockers.  Michale Johnson will be better for the run last weekend. There is a sense that the Eagles were more motivated last weekend and that the Dockers were a bit flat.  The eagles did have the advantage of not travelling the week prior.

 

Given all of the above, it is a little hard to assess Fremantle at present.

 

The Roos have 5 INS, but they are all on the 7 man IC bench at present. This is their first real test against quality opposition for a while – having come off games against Essendon, Brisbane, Carlton, Melbourne and St Kilda.  It probably isn’t the ideal preparation for a clash with the league leaders.

 

The Roos were in trouble at half time last weekend – with the Saints kicking themselves out of a bigger HT lead than their 2:8 margin.  Then the Roos stormed home in 2H, but this was when the Saints were running out of fit players.  So the summary of this game is that North is due for a loss.

 

But there is plenty of doubt about both teams, so it will be another EXTREME variance game.  The Roos / Dockers games have produced a few EXTREME variance results in recent times.

 

Dockers by 7 points

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 7 points but the Roos won by 11; analysis was mixed; the EXTREME variance call was probably JUST correct – with the momentum swing in the match; maybe a case can be made that the Dockers threw the game away; but the Roos were good enough to work there way back into it.  There were three doubtful Docker players.  Alex Pearce scored 27 DT points in 1Q and then 6 for the rest of the game; Fyfe scored 64 in 1H and then 26 in 2H; Spurr scored 76 in the first 3Q and then dropped off marginally for 12 in the last; maybe this contributed to Freo dropping off.  Regrettably, the wrong team was tipped and, with hindsight, maybe a risk factor could’ve been attached to the three players even though they played; but it felt like the sort of game that Freo would have won 5 – 6 times had it been played 10 times.

 

 

8        CARL         vs.      MELB         MCG   Sun, 23 August 3:20 pm

The Dees should win

Weather: possible shower; light winds

Please refer to Penny’s thoughts on this game here:
http://longggey.com/round-21-2015-penny/
The preview by Penny gives us good insight.  The Dees should be well primed for this game and they are expected to win.  The temptation to tip them as certs will be resisted, however. This is because lowly teams can be extremely unreliable when favourites.  And the Dees have been very poor when they have been favourites in recent years.

 

Having said that, the Blues seem to be really down and out.  They get Levi Casboult (from injury) and Troy Menzel (from an uninspiring VFL game) back, but lose LAchie Henderson (in more ways than one – he has announced that he is leaving the Blues at year’s end and has been dropped on that basis).

 

The speculation that Brendon Bolton is going to be the new coach hasn’t helped the interim coach – and the team seems to be going through the motions on the way to a likely wooden spoon (almost certain if they lose this one).

 

The Dees still don’t get Dom Tyson back, but Christian Salem’s return will help.

 

Melbourne by 16 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Dees were tipped by 16 points but the Blues won by 23: analysis was poor; the lesson to be learned here is to NEVER get too excited about a favourite (as the Dees were) when that favourite is a very poor team.  Paul Roos in the presser: 2 tackles in the first 20 minutes & words to the effect that they didn’t come to play as they wanted to; both teams had injury concerns, but the Blues seemed to be worse off; but they had a big enough lead to hang on – despite being challenged; sorry about the wrong tip!

 

 

9        WCE vs.      WBD    Subi          Sun, 23 August 2:40 pm

The Eagles probably

Weather: dry; moderate breeze

The question here is how the Eagles will recover from an emotional win over their neighbours in last week’s Derby.  They cannot afford to drop off – with Hawthorn breathing down their neck and having an easier draw for R21-23.

 

Nicnat comes back, but they lose Sam (I’ll get you) Butler unexpectedly to injury to add to the other three OUTS.  Also, there must be some doubt on Jamie Cripps after his whack last week.  Mark Le Cras is a good IN.

 

Jason Johannisen is the only confirmed IN for the Dogs, but they lose both Matthew Boyd and Liam Picken to soreness / injury.  These OUTS came as a bit of a surprise – and make it a little easier to tip the Eagles.

 

The West Coast have the luxury of three games in a row at home (two home games sandwiched in between an away game against the Dockers) – a nice help at this time of year.

 

Adam White makes the point that the Dogs haven’t played a top 8 team since R7! Interesting!

 

The Eagles by 19 points but not certs.

Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 19 points and they won by 77; this had the look of a monster win at half time – and so it turned out; but that was probably more due to Bulldog injuries than sniffing a trend; Luke Beveridge noted that “Tommy Campbell couldn’t ruck in the end” – with a corkie; Dale Morris was subbed off with an Achilles injury; Jarrad Grant also had an injury concern and he scored 0 DT points in 4Q; maybe Matthew Boyd & Liam Picken being out was a bigger thing than anticipated; the other uncertain thing is howthe Eagles would come off the Derby and how that would’ve affected them; the margin meant that this was ANOTHER EXTREME variance game – not predicted (insert another frown here)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best cert Crows (always safe), then Hawks (looked a chance, but outplayed) and Cats (threw it away in last minute) (after Hawks let us all down, Dees (simply awful) and Eagles (romped away) were also added as certs – but don’t follow this lead UNLESS you have been wiped out this weekend!)

 

Best Outsider: the Dockers – if you consider them an outsider (looked like winning but got overrun); otherwise, the Giants (never a hope), Dons (almost got there) and Dogs (never a hope)have small hopes

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  the Cats to win by more than 29 points (never looked a chance); the Crows to win by more than 48 points (always safe); the Dockers to win or to lose by less than 3 points (looked safe for most of the match but faded)

 

Happy tipping!  This is a week which might be harder than it looks; expect an upset or two. (Port was a big upset; the Saints another almost big upset and the Blues won as outsiders)