Navigation

Round 22, 2015 penny

Technical Analysis prior to R22, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 27 Aug 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: look up the phrase “come a gutzer” on line and you will see my photo!  What a shocker!  The Cats never looked likely to win big; while the Dees were truly woeful.  I have since been doing my lines:
I must not tip the Dees when they are favourites
I must not tip the Dees when they are favourites
I must not tip the Dees when they are favourites
I must not tip the Dees when they are favourites.
That was one fact I ignored – Melbourne has been terrible on the odd occasion when they have been favoured to win; most of their wins have been upset ones where the pressure is OFF them.
As for the Cats, team like Geelong (battling to make finals) often drop a game against a bottom team in the last few rounds.  They tend to take it as a chance to relax before they face their REAL tests; SORRY!

 

This week, I am looking at teams on the road two weeks in a row and late in the season.  Those teams are Port Adelaide and Brisbane.

The Lions can be knocked over quickly.  They have a horrendous injury list and played last week vs the Crows in Adelaide.  Now they have to fly again from balmy QLD to Launceston which will be cold and windy.

Given this, rest assured that the Hawks will absolutely smash the Lions.  Each time the Hawks have lost this year, they really bounced back well.  They should be able to focus their anger on blowing a series of games and missing out on the top 2 (hopes 99% gone now) – and do it well enough to excel in Tassie.  This advice is not much help to most – as the Hawks are tipped to win by 11 goals.  I reckon they will win by 15 goals plus.

Port is a more interesting one.  They had a big UP against the Hawks last Friday night and then lapped up the plaudits all weekend. Now they have another road trip to a more humid Gold Coast.

I would be quite keen on the chances of the Suns, but they have a monstrous injury list.  So I won’t be tipping the Suns outright in this contest – and I am not even sure that they can exceed expectations.  But my word of caution is NOT to tip Port as certs.  There are enough risks associated with it to avoid over-confidence.

If the score is close at the 3 quarter time, I would be keen on the Suns to finish well.