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Round 22, 2015

 

Round 22, 2015

SuperTipping results for R20: 6 winners for a total of 134 + 2 bonus pts = 136 and ranking slipped from 531 to 581 out of 46,956 tipsters (top 1% – elite)

Footytips.com.au Streak: Hawks bomber out and so streak back to zero; after that, tipped Cats, then Dees and Eagles; so current streak reset and up to 1; ranking worsened from 289 to 336 (and will be difficult to do any better this late in the season) but still in top 2% (excellent).

50/50 tips: 1 out of 3 for the week (with the Cats and Dees not winning; but the Crows won b plenty) and 22 out of 55 for the year = a result of a poor 40% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and
“pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.  There are now only 14 tipsters left in the Gauntlet

Down the gurgler in R12 in the Pick 5 – along with most others. There are now  167 tipsters remain in the Pick 5

From now on, those still in the Gauntlet comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gauntlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear. 

Early thoughts for R22: the Hawks and Dockers are BIG certs; very keen on Giants; Cats, Roos, Tigers, Port & Swans will be tipped; slightly favouring the Crows in a close one at this early stage

Round 22, 2015

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 GEEL COLL MCG GEEL 5 EXTREME A definite chance
2 GWS CARL Homebush GWS 29 EXTREME A tiny chance
3 HAW BRIS Launceston HAW 94 HIGH No hope at all
4 NMFC WBD Docklands NMFC 17 HIGH A small chance
5 ESS RICH MCG RICH 38 HIGH No hope at all
6 GCS PORT Gold Coast PORT 17 EXTREME A small chance
7 ADEL WCE ADEL ADEL 9 HIGH Tipped to win
8 STK SYD Docklands SYD 17 HIGH A small chance
9 FREO MELB Subi FREO 63 HIGH No hope at all

 

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

 

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1        GEEL         vs.      COLL         MCG Fri, 28 August 7:50 pm

The Cats – but no certs

Weather: possible showers; breezy; may be a heavy ground
The Cats go into this game as a slim chance to play finals. They will be totally out of it if the Crows win, but the Crows play 2 days later. If they win and the Crows lose, then the winner of R23 Cats vs Crows plays finals.

 

Collingwood seemed to drop their bundle late last week.  It appears that they were flat after a HUGE go at beating the Swans (which was unsuccessful) and then they were terrible at both the start and end of the Tigers game.  How they will be this week remains a mystery. The finals are gone; if the Pies want to have one big UP late in the season, maybe the Friday night game is the one.  R23 is against traditional enemy Essendon, but it is the late Sunday game and not free to air – plus a win over the Cats with give them more kudos.

 

There are also other factors to consider in terms of player fitness: How will Nathan Vardy go 2nd up (expect okay because he has played multiple VFL games); Daniel Menzel – his first senior game since the 2011 finals! The big selection news for the Cats was that Mitch Duncan is still not back.

Given that both teams look a little shaky, this is labelled an EXTREME variance game.  The possibility is real that could end in tears for one team or the other (a big loss, that is).

 

Cats by 5 points

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 5 points but the Pies won by 48; analysis was better than it looked; most were tipping the Cats by 10-20 points and some may have labelled them certs; the game certainly ended in tears for Cat fans (barring the Menzel screamer and his game overall); the key to the win was the Pies being flat after their loss to the Swans; they surely bounced back well – despite losing Travis Cloke prior to the game and Dane Swan during it; the concern about the Cats was Josh Caddy going out WITHOUT Duncan coming back in; the Pies smashed them in the midfield!

 

 

 

 

 

 

2        GWS vs.      CARL         Homebush  Sat, 29 August 1:45 pm

The Giants are certs (sort of)

Weather: showers should hold off until after match ends; moderate breeze

Based on last week’s results, the Blues should be a huge chance.  The Giants were very poor – while the Blues exceeded all expectations.

 

Carlton jumped the Dees on Sunday and held on.  The Giants stank it up against the Swans.

 

The Giants have been fairly poor after being thrashed by the Swans in the past. This is a negative for the Giants.  But, on closer inspection, this poor form was when the Giants were either very inexperienced or playing much higher rated teams the week after their Swans losses.

 

This time they should be able to bounce back strongly. Leon Cameron expressed disappointment about the poor showing in front of a good home crowd (the marketing angle). This round (22) will be their last home game for the year. It’s another reason for them to do extra well!

 

The Blues over-achieved last weekend. Or was it how bad the Dees were? Or it

could be that news about the new coach spurred them on. It is suspected that the Dees were just awful. That being the case, the Blues are likely to underperform this weekend.

 

Carlton had some injury issues out of the game. Andrew McKay tells us that Matthew Kreuzer okay. However, he is suffering from a lack of continuity in his footy – and so may play but struggle this week; Michael Jamison is fine – we are told. Marc Murphy, of course, is gone for the year.  And Troy Menzel had a “minor AC joint injury in 1Q” according to fanfooty.com.au.  He only scored 26 SC points – and was not mentioned by McKay.  Expect him to underperform or be a late withdrawal.

 

The unexpected out was Andrew Carrazzo.

 

On the flipside, the Giants had just about their worst game for the year last week in the Batle of the Bridge. Some reckon that it has been a long season for the young side and that they haven’t got any bullets left to fire. But this assessment is too severe. It is FAR

more likely that they will bounce back strongly this week after the humiliation of last week’s thrashing; they also have the advantage of 2 weeks in a row in Sydney (an absolute luxury for them!)

 

And just when we all thought it was safe to tip the Giants: out go Joel Patfull (Soreness), Rory Lobb (Omitted), Andrew Phillips (Shoulder), Jonathon Patton (Rested), Nick Haynes (Groin) and Will Hoskin-Elliott (Knee)! Incredible!

 

I still agree that the Giants are the definitely the ones to tip, the huge blowout in player injuries for both teams makes this an EXTREME variance game.  For those who are on a long run of certs, leaved this game alone; the cert tip WAY down at the bottom is carries higher than normal risk.

 

Giants by 29 points and certs if you must pick a fourth cert

Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 29 points and they won by 81; analysis was okay; the positive was that the game was labelled EXTREME variance; with the Giants winning by more than 6 goals over expectations, the call was correct; the Blues were worse served in terms of injuries, but they dropped away terribly after HT; maybe the Giants’ resolve was underestimated – or the Blues win over Melbourne lulled them into a false sense of security

 

 

 

3        HAW           vs.      BRIS Aurora Stadium   Sat, 29 August 2:10 pm

The Hawks by heaps

Weather: showers may come during the game or after it finishes; breezy
Please refer to Penny’s preview of this game here:
http://longggey.com/round-22-2015-penny/
The lesson to be learned about Mongo in Blazing Saddles is: don’t shoot him – that just makes him mad.

 

Regrettably for the Lions, the Hawks will be mad this weekend.  Port made them so – and now the Lions are going to cop it.  As Penny points out, the Lions are also travelling for the second week in a row.

 

Jack Redden goes out for the Lions – which is a blow; the Hawks weren’t expected to lose Paul Puopolo, but he might be back soon.

 

The Hawks by 94 points and certs of the week
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 94 points and they won by 72; analysis was reasonable at best; Sam Mitchell was a late withdrawal; this didn’t help Hawthorn’s cause; the Lions did slightly better than predicted while on the 2nd week of a road trip; apart from that, the Hawks were correctly tipped as certs of the week.

 

 

 

 

4        NMFC         vs.      WBD   Docklands Sat, 29 August 4:35 pm

The Roos, but not certs

There was talk of Daniel Wells coming back in, but he was not picked in the 22 – nor as an emergency.  Other than that, things are reasonably okay for the Roos.

 

Over at the Dogs, there are 6 changes. On a 6 day break back from the west, they have had 2 injuries and a further four omissions.  And Dale Morris made need to pass a fitness test.  It is a tough ask for the Dogs.

 

There is a temptation to totally write them off – “we knew they were no good” type of stuff.  While they are up against it, the temptation to tip the Roos as certs will be resisted.

 

The Dogs did bounce back well from a shocker against Hawthorn early in the season.  They thrashed the Crows the following week after getting off to a 6 goal to 1 first term.

 

Expect the Dogs to be barking early.

 

But the Roos look to be on a bit of a roll.  Roos by 17 points

Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 17 points but the Dogs won by 23; analysis was a bit off here; the ability of the Dogs to bounce back after a 6 day break to Pert was underestimated; they also did this on the back of 6 changes (maybe a smart move – in hindsight); the Dogs’ “ins” did pretty well overall; maybe the Roos were flat after their stirring win over the Dockers a week earlier; the other thing was that, unlike the prediction, the Dogs were flat early and finished well

 

 

 

 

5        ESS   vs.      RICH          MCG Sat, 29 August 7:20 pm

The Tigers are certs

Weather: shower or two; light winds; ground might be slightly damp
The general trend is for the Dons to drop off in recent seasons.  Tis seems to be happening – but they had a little blip after James Hird departed last weekend.  Their “blip” was against an injury plagues Suns team.

 

Chappy has announced his retirement and this will be his last game (he won’t be there in R23 – maybe not to clash with Fletch’s last game or trip around the ground in a car in R23)

 

The Bombers have too many injuries themselves to challenge Richmond.

 

And, although the Magpies and suns both dropped off against the Tigers (maybe giving a false impression of the merit of the wins) the Tigers will definitely have too many guns for their opponents.

 

The one danger is that Richmond has a huge game against the Roos next week.  That danger will be ignored. Tigers by 38 points and certs

Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 38 points and they won by 27; analysis was okay; the ground was wetter than expected and possibly contributed to a lesser win by Richmond; the other thing that was in doubt was the mental state of the Bombers; they seemed to be nicely “up” early and never threw in the towel; the Tigers were correctly labelled certs – despite causing fans a few worries ealry

 

 

 

 

6        GCS  vs.      PORT         Metricon Stadium          Sat, 29 August 7:20 pm

Port, but a danger game

Weather: rain; light winds; moderate humidity
Please refer to Penny’s preview of this game here:
http://longggey.com/round-22-2015-penny/
The Suns have the luxury of 2 games in a row at home at the same time that Port is on the road for the second week.

 

This is a big boost for the Gold Coast; but the problem is that they may be too injured to take advantage of it.  They add Adam Saad to their long injury list.  Sam Day has been named, but must be in some sort of doubt after being stretchered off last weekend; and Charlie Dixon comes back, but could be a risk; the “Hall” omitted is Josh Hall, not Aaron.

 

Port is a bit more settled and really should win based on rating and injury quotient.  But there is a danger that they could bask in the glory of a Friday night win over the Hawks – and be too pleased with themselves this week.  Ken Hinnkley talked about them starting the 2016 season with 4 games to go (after a shocker versus the Dogs before that).

 

All these concerns about both sides make the game an EXTREME variance game

 

Port by 17 points, but not certs
Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 17 points and they won by 28; analysis was worse than it looked – because it was tipped as an EXTREME variance game, but played out normally instead; if you had tipped Port as certs, you would’ve walked away happy; but not really disappointed at labelling them non-certs; maybe the Suns copped slightly the worse of the injuries – making the margin tip pretty good

 

 

 

 

7        ADEL         vs.      WCE ADEL Oval          Sun, 30 August 1:10 pm

The Crows in a minor upset

Weather: dry; light winds
At the beginning of this round, the Crows are a small chance to drop out of the eight (after R23). To do so, the Cats would have to win both their games and the

Crows lose both theirs (with the 2 teams playing for the Patrick Dangerfield Cup in R23). So, if the Cats lose, then the Crows have a diminished motivation for winning. So a Collingwood win over the Cats would create a negative of about a goal for Adelaide.

 

The other thing about the Crows watching to see if the Pies can “do the right thing by them” is that it can be a distraction from their key objective – winning a game of footy for the loyal fans.

 

The Eagles are now 99% safe in a top 2 spot – needing only 1 win from the final 2 games (this one and a home game vs Saints) to be guaranteed of 1 or 2.  So their motivation is not as great as last week.  Having said that, they would like to keep momentum going through to the finals.

 

It hasn’t got a lot of press east of Bordertown, but the Crows are flying since their shocker against Sydney. They towelled up the Tigers and then demolished the struggling Bombers and Lions (desecrated them – as a fan was once heard to say).

 

This surge in form, the home ground advantage and the shorter injury list will just barely offset the great form of the Eagles.

 

Crows by 9 points
Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 9 points and they won by 57; analysis was mixed; the right team was tipped in a minor upset, but the margin was way off and the result was an EXTREME variance result; it appears that the Crows are on a roll – and that the Eagles relaxed after virtually clinching the home final (only having to beat the Saints in Perth next weekend)

 

 

 

 

8        STK  vs.      SYD  Docklands   Sun, 30 August 3:20 pm

The Swans should do it

The Swans are in fourth place on the ladder – just in case anyone hasn’t noticed.  There was a huge focus on the Dogs when they pinched fourth spot recently, but not much said about the Swans getting it back.  And they are one team with a good record in Perth!!!

 

Back to this weekend, however: the Saints did a great job against the Cats after making seven forced changes last weekend.  Adam Schneider comes in for his last ever game this week (similar to Chappy – but Schneider’s reason is probably that their R23 game is in Perth) and also in is Sean Dempster and Dylan Roberton.  The other important “in” – David Armitage – only made it to the 7 man IC bench.  He is a monty to play if fit enough. Watch for the Friday evening trimmed squads!

 

Similarly for Sydney – Tom Mitchell is an “in’ onto the 7 man bench.

 

Was the R21 draw by the Saints and unsustainable blip?  Probably so; but the Saints have been highly competitive in most games recently.

 

The Swans look to be getting back to somewhere near right – despite not being totally settled.  Had they been close to their best list, they would be certs at the Docklands – where they have excelled in recent times.  It appears, however, that the experts might have slightly overrated them for this game.

 

Swans by 17 points but not certs
Post Match Review:  were tipped by  points and they won by 97; WOW! what a huge win; analysis was not too flash; the big win means that the game was an EXTREME variance game – not tipped as such; it looks like the Saints game last weekend was an unsustainable blip.  Of interest is that the Saints played in R21 and both were around 10 goals below expectations in R22

 

 

 

 

 

9        FREO         vs.      MELB         Subi  Sun, 30 August 2:40 pm

The Dockers are certs

Weather: shower or two; breezy
The Dees copped it big time on Monday morning after comments about the “veil of negativity” that exists amongst Dee fans.  The worst thing about Melbourne is that they have been very poor when favoured to win. This won’t be a problem against Freo in Perth.

 

The other thing that has been shocking recently is their poor first terms; in the last three weeks they have been down 34, 49 and 30 points at QT. 

 

Given the heat on them, they should come out all guns blazing.  The Dockers may be aware of this, but they don’t care too much about percentage or who wins 1Q.  They just want to see a “W” at the end of the day.  That way, they will finish ahead of Hawthorn (8 points behind) and percentage doesn’t matter re the Eagles who are half a win behind.

 

The likely game trend is for the Dees to be better early in the game and then the Dockers to draw away – maybe to win by more than people expect.

 

The Dees big non-selection is Dom Tyson – still not back in the team.

 

With Fyfe missing the last 2 games of the regular season, SC & DT players will be rueing not having any trades left; such drama after hours of hard work!

 

Dockers by 63 points and certs
Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 63 points and they won by 54. Analysis was pretty good in this instance; a case could be made for this being an EXTREME variance game, but it is borderline anyway; perhaps the Dees were harder done by in terms of injury; the Dockers were certs from half way through the first term – so that call was spot on

 

 

 

 

 

Best cert:  Hawks, then Dockers and Tigers; this website will also tip the Giants as certs  – but only because of the small run of certs at present (all won well)

 

Best Outsider: the Crows (if you consider them an outsider) (always looked likely); otherwise, the Pies (never looked like missing) and a small chance to the Suns (tried hard but not up to it)

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  the Hawks to win by more than 74 points (failed narrowly); the Roos to win by more than 9 points (never looked likely in 2H); the Crows to win or to draw (safe at QT); the Dockers to win by more than 45 points (also looked safe a long way out)

 

Happy tipping!  For those needing to catch up one or two on the leader, the best option is the Crows – then the Pies for thrill-seekers; but there are three tough call games in R23, so you don’t need to catch up all in one go! (Pies and Crows together would’ve been a brilliant weekend of tipping!)