Round 23, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R23, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 02 Sep 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: oops! I have hit a bit of a slump! The Hawks were not as hot as I expected; not too disappointed about the Port / Suns tip.  The Hawthorn one was the bad one

This week, Port Adelaide is in the gun again.  They have talked about their 2016 campaign starting at round 20 (after being savaged by a pack of Bulldogs in round 19); they have done pretty well every week since.

Their “worst” result has probably been last week when they failed to really crunch a Suns team down and out in terms of personnel.  The modest (but acceptable, I guess) win was probably due to the nice rest after beating the Hawks the week prior on a Friday night.

If this is so, then a Port win by more than expected should be followed by a Swans win by more than expected (Suns play the Swans this week).

They play Fremantle and the whole world has heard about Ross Lyon resting players.  Already 6 players have been crossed off the list – and maybe a total of 11-12 may pull out.

This is a pity for tipsters who are trying to make ground on the leaders, because it shaped up as a tough one to tip before the news broke.

The Dockers also travelled in the last round of 2014 and rested 12 players (10 outs and a further 2 late withdrawals). The Dockers lost to St Kilda by 71 points.

Expect a worse result this weekend.  The experts are scratching their heads at present and coming up with about 9 goals as the Port winning margin.

I expect it to be 12+; maybe even 15+.

There is talk of Port not really wanting to win because of the draft pick order.  A loss will see them drop up to 3 spots.  But this notion won’t be even a small part of Port’s thinking.  They have had a horror season and really need to go out with a convincing win.

Maybe even 100+ points is possible!