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Round 23, 2015

 

Round 23, 2015

SuperTipping results for R20: 7 winners for a total of 141 + 2 bonus pts = 143 and ranking improved from 581 to 464 out of 46,968 tipsters (top 1% – elite)

Footytips.com.au 4 out of 4 (with Giants, Hawks, Tigers and Dockers all winning well) Streak up to 5; ranking worsened from 336 to 386 (and will be difficult to do any better this late in the season) but still in top 2% (excellent).

50/50 tips: 2 out of 4 for the week (with the Crows and Dockers winning by enough to help, but the Hawks fell 3 points short of the required margin and the Roos didn’t even win) and 24 out of 57 for the year = a result of a poor 42% (anything above 50% is good).

 

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).  Nothing special needs to be done – just enter your normal tips.  But there are only 6 games in weeks 11, 12 and 13 – so lots of people will fall over early!  If you want to pick an outsider (being daring early) – the later game in the round would be the ones in which to tip an upset.  There are now only 14 tipsters left in the Gauntlet

Down the gurgler in R12 in the Pick 5 – along with most others. There are now  165 tipsters remain in the Pick 5

The Gauntlet com has now been won by “Mad Swan”; so sad to be beaten by a bird! 

Early thoughts for R23: there would appear to be a host of certs this weekend; they are the Dogs, Port (Freo resting players), Hawks, Swans and Eagles; quite keen on the Crows, Pies with the best outsiders (in a tough round to pick an outsider) being the Roos and Dees; but the Roos may rest players

Round 22, 2015

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 RICH NMFC Docklands  RICH  77  HIGH  No hope at all
2 GEEL ADEL GEEL  ADEL  11  EXTREME  Some hope
3 BRIS WBD Gabba  WBD  29  HIGH  A tiny hope
4 PORT FREO ADEL  PORT  88  HIGH   No hope at all
5 HAW CARL MCG  HAW  71  HIGH   No hope at all
6 SYD GCS SCG  SYD  71  HIGH   No hope at all
7 WCE STK Subi  WCE  48  HIGH   No hope at all
8 MELB GWS Docklands  GWS  18 HIGH   A tiny hope
9 COLL ESS MCG  COLL  17  EXTREME   A tiny hope

 

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

 

Humble apologies! it appears that the previews didn’t “take” on Thursday night! Here is. belatedly, the preview (as well as the review)

 

1        RICH          vs.      NMFC         Docklands   Fri, 04 Sept 7:50 pm

The Tigers are certs after the team changes

This was a really juicy R23 match – or so we thought; how great it would have been if the winner grabbed 6th spot; but, alas, Aladdin and a lamp – it is better for the Roos to lose.  They would’ve overtaken Richmond had they won by 91 points or more.  No point trying for this.  And the Tigers aren’t going to say “NO” to being handed 5th spot (and a chance at 4th if the Suns pull off a miracle win). 

 

The other interesting snippet is that these teams will probably play again in an elimination final next week.  The Roos will go in with rested players.  The Tigers may go in with a big win and momentum.

 

Let’s have squiz and the Roos ins and outs.  The outs would be ranked in their team as follows: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 14, & 18.

The “ins” include Luke McDonald (back from a general soreness); he is the only one who is a genuine top 18 player; Aarons Black and Mullett lay claims to being in the best 18, but injuries in 2015 mean they are playing mainly in the VFL.  Majak Daw, Trent Dumont and Joel Tippett are the only three to be named in the VFL best last week (Werribee and North Ballarat teams).

 

We know how the Roos will approach things – the fringe players will stake a claim for the finals spot. They would only get a game if they produce something exceptional or there are injuries in the game; and Lindsay Thomas should be available for the finals.

 

The “injury + soreness” quotient for the Roos = 31; it should be a mere 6; the Tigers are sitting on 10; the difference between 10 and 31 means that the Roos have no hope.

 

The Tigers are on a hiding to nothing as far as Kudos is concerned; if they lose, they will look inept; and no winning margin will impress anybody.

 

The only negative for them is that they come off playing a struggling Bombers team.  But that won’t be enough to help the resting Roos.

 

As added incentive, it the Tigers win by 43 points or more, the Swans will lose 4th spot with a loss of any margin – even a point

 

Tigers by 77 points and certs
Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 77 points and they won by 41; analysis was a bit off here; the Tigers were correctly labelled as certs, but looked like they didn’t know how to approach the game in the early parts; once they got their game rolling, there was no stopping them; but, by then, the 77 point margin was way out of the picture.  The 41 point win left the door open for the Swans to lose narrowly and still finish 4th; the only question remaining is: which team will be better placed to win next Sunday?

 

 

2        GEEL    vs.    ADEL      Simonds Stadium    Sat, 05 Sept 1:05 pm

The Crows should do it

Weather: dry; light winds
The Crows seem to be on a bit of a roll since the tragedy of mid-season. The Crows were due to play the Cats that weekend and the game was cancelled; seeing the hoops will bring back memories of that weekend to the Crows.  And the Cats will recall it to a lesser extent.

 

By the time the players take the field, the Crows will know the result of the Tigers / Roos game (they probably know it now).  Assuming the Roos, the Crows can only gain a home final if the Lions win; the Crows will be finished when the Lions are late into 3Q.

 

So the incentive for them will be keeping their winning run going and taking momentum into the finals.

 

The home ground advantage is more than matched by the superior form of the Crows and the shorter injury list.  The keys outs for Geelong are Josh Caddy and Mitch Duncan.

 

But there is the FNS (Friday Night Shocker – Cats got flogged by the Pies) factor to consider – and the farewell to some premiership players.  It is uncertain how the team will respond.  It will have to be well for them to win – or maybe the finals permutations may need to “flatten” the Crows.  Then again, they may be on such a roll that they will run away with it.

 

This makes it an EXTREME variance game; Crows by 11 points but not certs
Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 11 points but the Cats won by 39; analysis was reasonable here; there was great uncertainty about the mental state of both teams going in to this game; then the other problem for the Crows was that the Dogs (playing about 40 minutes later) went 31 points up at QT; the Crows would have had this score line when they went into the rooms at half time; so that would’ve indicated that their home final hopes were totally shot; nonetheless, they made a great comeback in 3Q – only to have the Cats break away again; the best part of this analysis was the EXTREME variance call; this was EXTREME in both ways – end margin being well outside the range of expectation & also the scoring patterns on the day (with each team kicking 4 or more unanswered goals)

 

 

 

3        BRIS   vs.    WBD           Gabba         Sat, 05 Sept 1:45 pm

The Dogs are almost certs

Weather: possible showers; moderate breeze; moderate humidity
The Lions have the rumour mill going about Jack Redden (currently injured) wanting to leave and other possible unrest.  Adding to the drama in Brisbane is that they have a long injury list. 

 

This should make things safe for the Dogs; but they need to win in order to play the Crows in Melbourne; if they lose and the Crows & Tigers win, then the Dogs will play the Crows in Adelaide.

 

With the Dogs resting three players, they are surely expecting to do enough to win.  For those wanting to go for a really rough roughie, the Lions have a better hope than some other teams that have no hope at all.  But the other unseen “out” is Tom Campbell – who was expected back, but is in the VFL (along with Will Minson).  Roughy will be rucking virtually alone.

 

This gives the Lions a tiny chance – but only tiny. Nothing to get carried away with.

 

The Dogs by 29 points; they will be tipped as certs in the list of certs below – but only include them if you are sitting on a mall number of certs.

Post Match Review:  Dogs were tipped by 29 points but the Lions won by 8; analysis was a mile off here; and the scoring trend was that of an EXTREME variance game; the one tiny positive was that those who were on a long run of certs were advised NOT to tip the Dogs as certs (but this website was only on a run of 5, so tipped the Dogs as certs – insert frown here!); it appears that the Dogs were taken by surprise by the Lions – who were glad to play back home after 2 thrashings on the road; Brent Staker’s farewell game got torpedoed when he did his hammie in the warm-up

 

 

4        PORT         vs.      FREO         ADEL Oval                    Sat, 05 Sept 3:50 pm

The Power will not go out

Weather: dry; light winds

Please refer to Penny’s preview of this game here:

http://longggey.com/round-23-2015-penny/
The Dockers have rested 11 players – 12 if you remember that Nat Fyfe is out at present.

 

The theory about the Dockers wining goes like this: Port will lose their spot in the draft if they win.  But, as Penny points out, they are more interested in showing their adoring fans what to expect in 2016.

 

It would be totally humiliating for Port to lose to such a depleted Freo team.  So given that losing is highly unlikely (unless they force the ball towards the other end), then they may as well win by as much as possible.  Percentage is of no consequence if they win.

 

The only thing remaining is to pick the margin. How about Port by 88 points and certs of the week

Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 88 points and they won by 69; analysis was reasonable; the same thing happened as in the Tigers / Roos game – the undermanned team got off to a good start (as if the favoured team began the game in a nonplussed state); so, once again, the estimated final margin was a bit over the top – even though Port won by a bit more than the experts tipped; Jacob Ballard came in as a late replacement for Zac Dawson; it was all one way traffic after QT, but the poor start meant that the 88 point margin tip was always unlikely; of course, Port was correctly tipped as a cert

 

 

5        HAW   vs.    CARL         MCG           Sat, 05 Sept 4:40 pm

The Hawks are certs

Weather: dry; light winds
The Hawks will be relying on the Saints to win; but the Saints won’t have started by the end of the Hawks game.  So the Hawks will just have to win.  This won’t be a problem!

The Blues are too injured and down & out to have a hope – even if Hawthorn is off their game a bit.

 

The Blues have brought back Andrew Carrazzo for his final game; but he had a toe injury and may not be 100%; and David Ellard needs to pass a concussion test before playing.

 

Hawks are only resting 2 players!

 

No need to go on much more!  Hawks by 71 points and certs

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 71 points and they won by 57; analysis was fair; maybe the previous Hawks / Blues match needed to be taken into account; on that night, the Blues were TOTALLY blown away in 4Q; this tie, they fought on doggedly – matching the hawks goal for goal; helping Carlton was Carrazzo playing very well in his final game; Ellard struggled, while the Hawks were somewhat restricted after Isaac Smith went off injured after the sub had already come on; the Hawks were correctly tipped as certs

 

 

6        SYD    vs.    GCS           SCG            Sat, 05 Sept 7:20 pm

The Swans are certs

Weather: possible showers; breezy; may be a heavy ground
Please refer to Penny’s preview of this game here:

http://longggey.com/round-23-2015-penny/
(mentioned as a side issue)

The Swans need to win – if the Dogs win by over 100 points and / or the Tigers win by over 43 points – in order to hold 4th spot; if they win, they can climb as high as second – but that would require massive upsets in which the Hawks and or Eagles lost; feathers would fly if that occurred.

 

Getting a few players back of late has helped Sydney.

 

The Suns are really struggling in terms of injury; they now lose Harley Bennell and Clay Cameron; Luke Russell and Danny Stanley have been named, but there may be minor doubts on both playing.

 

The past two games for the Suns have been fair; but it is hard to gauge them; they fell in against the Bombers, then were competitive against Port; both games were at home; now they travel to the SCG and want the season to finish as quickly as possible.

 

The Swans will probably want to continue their momentum – since it has been a stop / start year for them.

 

Swans by 71 points and certs
Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 71 points and they won by 63; analysis was very good here; Dean Towers came in on Friday for Jarrad McVeigh (that would reduced the margin tipped by a small amount); the Swans and Suns both lost a player to injury; the Suns were always going to struggle in this last away game – after a horror run of injuries; Russell (listed as doubtful above) came on as sub, while Stanley (also called doubtful above) did quite well; Buddy was clearly playing below his best; the Swans were correctly labelled as certs

 

 

 

 

7        WCE   vs.    STK  Subi  Sat, 05 Sept 7:40 pm

The Eagles are certs

Weather: possible showers which should clear before game time; moderate breeze
The Eagles are one team that benefits greatly from a win (unless the Blues surprise by beating the Hawks and similarly, the Suns beat Sydney).

 

So they will be all keyed up to win this one well.  They may have been a bit flat against a hot Crows team last weekend.

 

Wisely, Will Schofield has been given another week to recover.  Jeremy McGovern is expected to be fine.

 

The Saints were really poor against the Swans last week.  It’s a tough task to follow up that loss with a road trip to Perth.

 

Jason Holmes is on his own this week with both Tom Hickey and Billy Longer gone. Welcome to Australia from a bloke born in Fiji!

 

The Eagles will win this one comfortably; the Saints coach talked about the need to finish off well; they may do better than in R22, but there won’t be a “W” beside their name this week.

Eagles by 48 points and certs

Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 48 points and they won by 95; analysis was a fair way off here; it was thought that the Saints would find something after their shocker against the Swans a week earlier; but they dropped right off in 4Q (with the breeze) to be outscored 5 goals to zip; otherwise, it would have been a more respectable loss; both teams had troubles – with Jack Sinclair coming in as a late replacement for Darren Minchington; and Chris Masten – just back from suspension – doing a hammie; the Eagles were correctly labelled as certs 

 

 

 

8        MELB         vs.      GWS           Docklands   Sun, 06 Sept 1:10 pm

The Giants should do it

Melbourne has a huge losing run at the Docklands.  If they have any hope of arresting the slump, they need to get off to a better start than recently. Their first quarters of the last 4 weeks reads: Dees 3:5 to opposition 26:10!  Amazing!  Prior to that, they jumped the pies 4:4 to 1:4 and put the Pies out of the finals.

 

The Giants are set to have their best ever season; losing both Ryan Griffen and Stephen Coniglio give the Dees a tiny sniff of a chance; at least they will be outsiders – which can help the Dees at times.

 

Max Gawn should win the ruck duels, but the Dees would be better placed if Dom Tyson was in the team.  Nathan Jones may need a fitness test; watch the news on this.

 

This is a game where you can risk tipping an outsider, but the chances are slim.

 

Giants by 18 points
Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 18 points but the Dees won by 26; analysis way not that great in this instance; the score was just in the EXTREME variance range; out “hunger fluctuated” said Giants coach Leon Cameron; this means that they played their grand final last week at home – and didn’t have much left in the tank for R23; too much emphasis in the analysis was given to the Dees’ long losing run at Docklands; they finally broke the 22 match streak with a strong win; the other ting to help the Dees was that Natham Jones played as if untroubled by the ankle problem of the previous week and was among the best

 

 

9        COLL         vs.      ESS   MCG           Sun, 06 Sept 3:20 pm

The Pies should do enough to win

Weather: possible showers; breezy
The last Sunday game is usually reserved for lowly teams; now it is a replay of the 1990 grand final.

 

Form suggests that the Pies should win this one; their form overall has been better, but both teams have a few injury concerns.  Travis Cloke DIDN’T make it back this week.

 

Collingwood was an outsider last week after being awful the previous week against Richmond.  But they blitzed the Cats early and maintained the lead.

 

The problem with tipping the Pies is that they have had a long weekend off prior to a relatively meaningless R23 Sunday game.  It may be hard to come up for it.  That will be the best chance for the Bombers.

 

Sadly, Dustin Fletcher didn’t return.  He may have some sort of farewell on the day. The Bombers were competitive against Richmond last weekend (far better than the Pies in R21) – and, on that basis, must be rated some sort of chance.  This is another game where the thrillseekers can tip a roughie.

 

Because it is SO difficult to estimate the motivation in this game, it will be labelled an EXTREME variance game

 

Pies by 17 points
Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 17 points but the Dons won by 3; analysis was so-so; the positive was that a lot of people tipped Collingwood as total certs – generally by about 4 – 5 goals; but this tip was by less AND it was given an EXTREME variance tag – meaning: BEWARE of tipping the Pies as certs – anything could happen; the scoring trend and the result itself was not quite an EXTREME variance pattern; but the result, in some ways, justifies the call.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best cert:  Port, Hawks, Tigers, Swans, Eagles; if you need one more – go for the Dogs (the first five won easily, but the slightly more risky one in the Dogs lost)

 

Best Outsider: small chances to Essendon, Geelong and Melbourne (they all won!)

 

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated: Tigers to win by more than 50 points (left their run too l;ate); Port to win by more than 58 points (got there eventually); Swans to win by more than 56 points (narrowly got there); and a risky one on the Bombers to win or to lose by less than 23 (never looked in doubt)

 

Happy tipping!  Hopefully, you are in front now in your tipping comp; if not, then the Roos and Dockers have made it tough for you!  Maybe go for a Sunday outsider if you are desperate! (and Sunday outsiders  – both winning – would have helped many a tipster!)