Round 3, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R3, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 17 April 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: huge apologies for strongly advising against tipping Essendon; what went wrong? Well, teams that get horribly overrun like the Bombers did in R1 usually underperform the following week – and the reason is because they are not much good – or had a horrible preparation to the season; the Bombers actually had a good lead-in – barring all their players that didn’t play a NAB game; this was hard to assess and things didn’t pan out as I planned; a bit like when my uncle George has his “power tools prac session” at the home for the criminally insane.

This week we will have a squiz at the Tigers. Given the fact that they were 3 and 10 last year before storming home, one would assume that they struggle to recover from bad losses.

However, the technical analysis suggests otherwise – on the whole.

Looking at how the Tigers do after a bad, underperforming loss (where they lost and underperformed by 20 points or more – games where they exceeded expectations but still lost will be excluded as will games straddling byes), here is what we find.

2014 (week after such a loss): win +5 (won by 5 points more than the experts tipped); win +16; loss +24 (lost, but exceeded expectations by 24 points); win +94; loss -4; 3 wins 2 losses; outperformed expectations 4 of 5

2013: loss +13; win +54; win +64; win -15; win +69; win +59; 5 wins 1 loss; outperformed expectations 5 of 6

2012: loss +14; win -46; loss +2; 2 wins 1 loss; outperformed expectations 2 of 3

Grand total: 10 wins; 4 losses; outperformed expectations 11 of 14 times or 78% and a staggering average of 24 points above expectations over a 3 season period.

They are favoured to beat the Lions by 14 points; the Richmond bounce-back factor should see them win by much more than that. And when the Tigers do bounce back, they are often brilliant in the opening term.