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Round 3, 2015

Round 3, 2015

SuperTipping results for R1: 4 winners for a total of 10 and and ranking dropped from 11,577 to 15,181 out of 44,050 tipsters (just average)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 1 out of 3 (Hawks and Suns losing; Roos won easily).  Streak wiped out and now back to 1 after the Roos won. Ranking of 2,200 and in top 18%

50/50 tips: 0 out of 2 for the week and 1 out of 4 for the year = a result of 25% (anything above 50% is good) with the “Hawks and Suns both losing.

The AFL have a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses)

Early thoughts for R3: The Crows and Hawks look to be certs; also very keen on the chances of Magpies, Tigers & Cats;  the Dockers & Swans will be tipped; maybe the Swans are slightly too hotly fancied and most people have them as absolute certs – but will still tip them; the Dons will also be tipped, but they will definitely not be tipped as certs, with the Blues given a sneaky chance in an EXTREME variance game; Roos and Port is the tough one for the round – with early thoughts to tip the Roos; If Lobbe comes back, the tip may change

 

Round 3, 2015

Game

Home

Away

VenueX

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider isXXXXXXXXX

1

COLL

STK

MCG

COLL

27

EXTREME

a small hope

2

CARL

ESS

MCG

ESS

16

EXTREME

some chance

3

ADEL

MELB

ADEL

ADEL

63

HIGH

no hope

4

SYD

GWS

SCG

SYD

24

HIGH

a small hope

5

NMFC

PORT

ETIH

PORT

5

EXTREME

there is no real outsider here

6

BRIS

RICH

BRIS

RICH

32

HIGH

no hope

7

HAW

WBD

LAUN

HAW

45

HIGH

no hope

8

GEEL

GCS

GEEL

GEEL

49

HIGH

no hope

9

WCE

FREO

SUBI

FREO

HIGH

a small hope

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

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1        COLL         vs.      STK  MCG Fri, Apr 17 7:50 pm

Weather: possible late shower; light winds

The Pies should do it, but total certs

This will be labelled an EXTREME variance game for various reasons.  Firstly, Scott Pendlebury and Nick Riewoldt are both under injury clouds.  Watch the news on Friday prior to the first bounce; Pendles is more likely to play, but with pain.  The calf injury of Saint Nick will be either yeah or nay come final team time – nay is maybe more likely (and Paddy McCartin is an emergency).  Ahmed Saad copped a knock last week and may also be in doubt.

Another reason for the variance call: the Saints form – can we believe it?  They have lots of injuries (with Leigh Montagna still not back) but 2 good efforts, especially R2.  But the Suns saw the demise of Gazza in this match, plus lost others players to injury as well.  This win may be slightly overrated.

It is a little difficult to get a line of the Magpies early season form.  Their R1 win over the Lions seemed meritorious (and may have been bigger bar for the humidity sapping the players’ energy); but then Brisbane was smashed by a Roos team in R2 which had one short on the bench for the latter part of the match.  The Pies lost to the Crows by 27 points, but the Crows are going great!  Maybe that wasn’t such a bad loss.

Wrapping it all up, it is concluded (tentatively) that the Saints R2 win was an unsustainable blip – and that they will not be able to replicate that form in Melbourne this weekend off a 6 day break from QLD.  Having said that, remember that the variance is EXTREME.

So the Pies won’t be listed as certs; and results way off the experts analysis and / or wild swings of momentum are possible.

Pies by 27 points

Post Match Review: Pies were tipped by 27 points and they won by 74.  Analysis was reasonable, but a bit too wimpy! In retrospect, the Saints win in R2 was a false read.  Added to this the short break after travelling and the Pies could’ve / should’ve been tipped by more and with more confidence.  Nonetheless, the 27 point margin was still more than the experts who were tipping about a 3 goal win.

Three reasons to forgive Paddy McCartin for his first up game:  1. He had an interrupted pre-season; 2. He is a big guy and big blokes take time; and 3: He only knew just before the game that he was in; Nick Riewoldt was going to play but pulled out during the warm-up.

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2        CARL         vs.      ESS   MCG Sat, 18 Apr 1:45 pm

Weather: showers and breezy

The Dons, but no certs

On face value, the Bombers appear to be one of the biggest certs of the round.  What an amazing and exciting comeback by them last weekend when they were 99.9% gone half way through the final stanza!

It’s hard to imagine the current Blues team beating Hawthorn (for example), as the Bombers did last Sunday.  And, prior to that, the Bombers almost toppled the Swans in R1.  The Swans were in top form R2 – to make the Dons’ R1 effort look all the better.  And the Tigers, who overran Carlton in R1, were upset by the Dogs last weekend.  Then there is the speculation about Mick Malthouse’s future.  The Blues hierarchy (and fans) don’t take kindly to failure.  A horrendous loss this week may cause a ridiculous amount of tension (there is way too much already OUTSIDE the inner sanctum at Carlton).  And Kristian Jaksch + Robert Warnock haven’t made it back yet.

But here are some positives for Carlton. In round five, Malthouse will break Jock McHale’s AFL coaching record of 714 games when the Blues play Collingwood in an MCG blockbuster.  The Blues have winnable games in R4-7 in Saints (in NZ), Pies (injured), then Lions and Giants at Etihad.  If they can conjure a win this weekend (something akin to pulling a rabbit form a hat), then they could get on a mini-roll.  They also had a FNS (Friday Night Shocker) last weekend.  This increases their chances of outperforming expectations (which are very low).

Then there are the outs: Simon White (1 Supercoach point last week), Troy Menzel (23), Clem Smith (8 as sub) and Jason Tutt (28).  They hardly troubled the scorers. Their replacements include Andrew Walker (interrupted pre-season but capable of firing first up after doing ok in the VFL last weekend) and he will score more than these 4 combined on his own this weekend.

It is also noted that the Blues played Richmond on the Thursday night in R1 and then both teams underperformed last weekend (Blues by 56 and Tigers by 38).  This is interesting!  If the Blues exceed expectations on Saturday afternoon, this increases the chances of the Tigers doing similar later that night!

But all that may not help if the Bombers continue their red hot form.  That is the last piece of the puzzle.  The Dons need to come down from their highs of R1&2 to give the Blues a sniff.  It is possible that they earmarked R1&2 for a huge effort (especially as all us experts gave them no hope of getting a win in those games).  The trend could go either way for the Bombers.  Brendon Goddard and Zac Merrett were listed as having knee injuries in the game summary on the AFL website; then all the news went quiet and they weren’t on the injury list on the following Tuesday.  They are probably ok, but it would be nice for the Bombers to tell us that they “trained strongly”.  Goddard is due for his 250th this weekend.

So it will be marked as an EXTREME variance game – with the Dons tipped by 16 points, but not certs.

Post Match Review: Bombers were tipped by 16 points and they won by 21. Analysis was reasonably good.  The EXTREME variance call was, in retrospect, questionable.  But it would have been done again – due to the uncertainties on both teams.  Of interest is that the Tigers exceeded expectations hugely and the Blues a little on Saturday.

The Blues maybe butchered some chances to get closer to the Dons – without ever deserving to win.  The FNS theory (explained above) also may have helped Carlton slightly.

James Hird said the Hawthorn game took a lot out of the Essendon players.  It explains why they didn’t really smash the Blues.  The gap between the Bombers and Blues is probably bigger than the result showed today.

But tipping the Dons by 16 points (as opposed to the 5 goal mark of the experts) was justified.

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3        ADEL         vs.      MELB         ADEL Oval          Sat, 18 Apr 1:40 pm

Weather: showers developing and windy

The Crows are big certs

The Dees won their last encounter with Adelaide in Adelaide. They also got close to knocking Port over later in 2014 in Adelaide.  But it important to know why this happened – to determine if it is likely to recur.

The Crows had a bye immediately after the Dees game.  They obviously pencilled in 4 points and then were shocked to be jumped early by Melbourne.  Despite a late comeback Melbourne hung on.   The Dees played Port during a Power failure last year (ie: when Port was really on a downer).

There is just no way that the Crows will lose this.  It is true that all eyes in SA are ALREADY on the showdown in R5, but this may affect the Crows in R4; they won’t be complacent this week!

Brodie Smith looks likely to play after apparently having to pass the concussion test on Thursday (presumably PRIOR to the team being named!).

The Dees have to travel 2 weeks in a row (Canberra R2 and now Adelaide).  That is another minus for them.  This may help the Crows to have a great 4Q.

Crows by 63 points and certs of the week.

Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 63 points and they won by 25.  Analysis was a fair way off.  The experts had the Crows winning by about 44 points, so this tip went the wrong way by a fair margin.

The game was like the 2014 game in Adelaide – where the Dees jumped the Crows early.  The difference was that the Crows got back into the contest by quarter time (last year they were chasing tail all day).

Credit goes to the Dees for exceeding expectations – despite being horrible after half time last weekend and having to travel 2 weeks in a row.

Did they lift?  Or did the Crows take them too easily?  It’s hard to say.  The tip wasn’t great, but the call of the Crows as certs was justified.

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4        SYD  vs.      GWS SCG  Sat, 18 Apr 4:35 pm

Weather: rain likely; light breeze

The Swans should win this one

A week or so after Jude Bolton questioned whether Adam Goodes went on for one season too long, he has been omitted.  Of more interest is that Ben “no vowels in his surname” McGlynn has not made it back yet. He only got as far as the emergencies.  The Swans looked like a premiership team last weekend against Port.  Terry Wallace said that John Longmire and his group clearly won the coaching battle.  Had this match been played again this weekend, it is likely that Port would fare far better.

Both these teams are going well at present (undefeated) and the Giants are expected to be highly competitive.  But it is likely that the Swans will have enough firepower to outlast the new kids in town.

The Giants won their R1 encounter last season (when the Swans were easing gradually into the season).  This year, they seem to be on the ball quite a bit earlier.  It is difficult to rate the R2 win by GWS.  They were ordinary early, but totally dominated after HT.

The ease of their win is just enough to sway away from labeling the Swans as certs.  The experts may be favouring the Swans a tad too strongly.

Swans by 24 points but not certs

Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 24 points and they won by 21.  Analysis was very good in this game. Most were expecting a Swans win by over 6 goals.  Nick Smith was a late withdrawal for the Swans, but McGlynn came in for him and did very well (in a different role, of course).

The Giants didn’t deserve to win, but could have been much closer had they not butchered their shots at goal.  They have been underrated since they fell over the line against the Saints in R1.

Maybe the Giants were helped by playing the Swans now, because the Swans were really up for Port in R2 and play Freo in Perth in R4.

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5        NMFC         vs.      PORT         Etihad Stadium    Sat, 18 Apr 7:20 pm

Port in a tough one to pick

The Roos had Nick Dal Santo, Scott Thompson and Daniel Wells all under injury clouds earlier in the week.  They mentioned earlier this week that Dal is gone for months and that they were confident on Wells and Thompson playing.  But it has gone very quiet on Wells and Thompson recently.  Watch for news on Friday or game day. Wells may be more of a risk than Thompson.

Robbie Tarrant forced his way in to the team more so than the omitted Joel Tippett failing. Lachie Hansen and Jamie McMillan were chances to return, but neither are playing this weekend.

Jarrad Redden (ordinary last week) has been dropped and so Paddy Ryder is going head to head with Todd Goldstein.  Ken Hinkley explains that he has gone for more pace this week. In the Swans preview above, it was mentioned that Hibkley was outcoached last weekend.  If so, and if he doesn’t repeat the error this week, then Port may be able to break their duck for the year.  They will certainly be desperate to do so.

They bring in a first gamer Brendon Ah Chee (whose form is nothing to be sneezed at – oh, sorry about the awful pun).

Port would have been the obvious choice had Matthew Lobbe been fit and selected. His continued absence muddies the waters. And it is also difficult to quantify the merit of the Roos’ huge win over the Lions last weekend.  There were three times last year that the Roos had a shocker, followed by a biiig win (as they have in R1&2 this year).  In 2 of the 3 cases, the third game was another shocker. (R5-7 & R7-10, which had a bye in R8 in the middle).  On the 3rd occasion (R15-17), they performed to expectation in the 3rd week.  As ever so slight outsiders, they will need to outperform expectations to win this one.  It looms as a difficult one to pick – similar to their R3 clash in 201 which the Roos narrowly won.

This is listed as an EXTREME variance game because both teams have / had underdone players.  The fact that Port have a shorter injury list and maybe their underdone blokes are about to run into form will mean that they are the selection.  But it is a game to avoid if you can.

Port by 5 points and EXTREME variance.

Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 5 points and they won by 8. Analysis was pretty good, but this is not really a tip to brag about – just be thankful that it was right.  There were a large number of unknowns and also injuries on the day.

It was no great surprise that Wells was a late withdrawal.  But losing Jack Ziebell very early was a shock.  On came ex Port player Ben Jacobs and did very well.  Jarrad Waite, however, had an absolute shocker. He wins the “most inconsistent” for R1-3 this year.

But, in the end, what got Port over the line was some players who stood up after an ordinary start to the season.  Travis Boak had his best game for the year – as did Matthew Broadbent and Jay Schulz.  And Paddy Ryder has gradually improved each week.

If you tipped the Roos, you may have been slightly unlucky.  It was really a typical 50/50 game.  It played out unlike an EXTREME variance game, so maybe that call was wrong.

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6        BRIS vs.      RICH          Gabba         Sat, 18 Apr 7:20 pm

Weather: possible shower, light breeze, moderate humidity

The Tigers to keep their winning streak (against Brisbane) going

The Lions have lost 9 in a row to Richmond, and they are going to face their nemesis without Daniel Merrett (who is not on the injury list but has missed the past 2 weeks).

Brent Staker comes in after only fair form in the NEAFL; Harris Andrews is picked for his first game (to replace Matthew Leuenberger), but his form was just fair as well.  James Aish and Darcy Gardiner were much better and should help Brisbane do better.

Should the Lions fall over this weekend, they have some winnable games coming up to get them possibly at least square with, or in front of, the ledger – WCE at home in R4 and then the injured Suns.  So, while they would be very keen to win this one, the real key will be to be much better in the effort and contest than in R2.  The coach mentioned after R1 that they would have lost that one by 100 points in 2014; then they almost lost R2 by 100!!

The Tigers are coming off 9 and 7 day breaks.  This is almost perfect for them – although they still don’t get Brett Deledio back.  They may have underperformed because of the long 9 day break between R1 & 2 on the back of an extra long pre-season.  Two of the Tigers injured trio are fringe players and the 3rd one – Dylan (better at present than Jack) Grimes is replaced by a very handy David Astbury.

The Lions would need things to go VERY right for them to have any chance – injuries to the Tigers, 99% humidity (it is forecast to be only about 70%).

Tigers by 32 points and certs

Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 32 points and they won by 79.  Analysis was fairly good.  The general consensus was Tigers by 2 – 3 goals.

As mentioned above, the Lions needed things to go very right in order to have a chance.  Only 2 of their “ins” did ok.  Staker, as hinted above, struggled.  And Darcy Gardiner had to be subbed off in 3Q – probably because he is short of a gallop.  And when Jack Redden + Mitch Robinson both underperformed, the result was never in doubt.

The Tigers were underestimated due to their “just average” effort last week; but you were advised above to downplay this bad result when doing your analysis.

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7        HAW vs. WBD     Hob  Sun, 19 Apr 1:10 pm

Weather: sunny, slightly breezy

The Hawks to atone

Luke Beveridge was an assistant coach at Hawthorn in 2012-2014, so he should know a bit about the Hawks.  This will help a little, but not enough to make this a danger game for Hawthorn. They look much better with Sam “tag him every single time” Mitchell back in the team as well as Josh Gibson.

The Hawks really should’ve won last weekend, but they were a bit slack after getting to a 16 point lead in 4Q and assuming that the Dons were going to collapse like the previous week. Top teams that lose in this way usually outperform expectations the following week.  And they often finish the game VERY STRONGLY – as it to “atone” for the previous week.

The Dogs lose Easton Wood with yet another hammie after one of his best games for some time.  Lucas Webb gets his first ever game – a good effort to break into an undefeated team.

The Dogs have been good so far, but may have got teams at the right time – especially Richmond.  Hawks by 45 points and certs

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 45 points and they won by 70. Analysis was ok – nothing to brag about too much.  The final margin blew out because the Dogs lost Marcus Bontempelli and Matthew Boyd (both with initials MB) as late withdrawals; then lost both Mitch Wallis and Dale Morris early in the contest.

The Hawks had a couple of lesser injuries, but both players (Paul Puopolo and Isaac Smith) were able to contribute significantly to the cause.  The Hawks also lost Bradley Hill prior to the game.

Add this to the higher rating, “home ground advantage” and how savage the Hawks were after dropping R2 vs the Dons, then it was clear that the Dogs would have no hope.

Had the Dogs been healthy, the “certs” tag on the Hawks was still probably correct.

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8        GEEL         vs.      GCS  Geel   Sun, 19 Apr 3:20 pm

Weather: showers and strong south wind

The Cats are certs

Things have been crook for both these teams, but there are more positives for the Cats this week than the Suns.  Even the above weather forecast is likely to suit Geelong.  Of note is that Gazza has not played at Geelong against the Cats yet.

But one thing needs to be clarified: while the stats “show” that the team does much worse when the little master is out, it just so happens that the team’s injury list is long when he is injured.  So one needs to look at the bigger picture.  Late last season, the Suns had a heap of other players injured at the end of the season when they were losing all those game Gazza-less.

This short-sighted analysis is similar to pre-fluoride tests done on school children which found that those who sucked their thumb were less likely to get tooth decay.  So do we encourage youngsters to suck their thumbs?  No, dummy!  Those sucking their thumbs were less likely to eat lollies.  The moral is: look at the big picture!

Harley Bennell missed training on Wednesday with that famous army bloke “General Soreness”, but it expected to train Friday and then play on Sunday.  But the Suns lose Jarod Harbrow, Greg Broughton and Mitch Hallahan to injury as well. Alan Sexton goes out suspended. With Sam Day and Rory Thompson recording low numbers last week and being underdone – it is hard to see them getting close to the Cats.

But Geelong has its own problems.  Andrew Mackie goes out and Villie Smedts is suspended.  But the “ins” clinch the deal – Jimmy Bartel, Steven Motlop (back from a short exile) and Jared Rivers (at last some good news this week on a Jarrod/ Jared).  Dawson Simpson just had to be dropped on recent form – and he has been.

Cats by 49 points and certs

Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 49 points and they won by 9.  This was a long way off the mark.  But it is a hard game to evaluate after the event.

The Cats lost Tom Hawkins before the game, then wet weather specialist Jimmy Bartel and Matthew Stokes early on with virtually no contribution from either; then Tom Lonergan was ko’d on 3QT.

Given all this, the Suns probably should have won.  But they had injury concerns from R2.  They had plenty of the ball, but butchered it a bit going forward.

Had the Cats been uninjured, would they have smashed the Suns as expected?  The jury is out on this – maybe not.  For those who had the Cats as certs, it was a bit too stressful.  Joel Selwood helped them limp over the line.

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9        WCE vs.      FREO         Subi  Sun, 19 Apr 2:40 pm

Weather: sunny and breezy

The Dockers to continue their dominance.

The Eagles have lost the past 5 Derbies – though none have been total blow-outs.  This one has the potential to be a big loss, however.  The Eagles are in a bad way in terms of injuries – despite their big (and too good to be a true form guide) win over Carlton last weekend.

They add Simon Tunbridge to a significant list including Scott Selwood.  The Dockers are playing like a team with one last shot at a flag this year.  However, Zac Clarks is in doubt and only ran laps at Wednesday’s training session. Jack Hannath is on the 7 man IC bench as a replacement.

The Eagles get the luxury of a long break (9 days is almost too long) and no travel for R2 & 3, but this probably won’t be enough to offset the Docker dominance.

But the Dockers aren’t total certs.  Dockers by 18 points.

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 18 points and they won by 30.  Analysis was fair only; in retrospect, the Dockers could’ve been labelled certs.  They were certs at QT, as it turned out.

Why the Eagles were so blown out of the water in 1Q is a bit of a mystery.  They did have a 9 day break after a cruisy home win over the Blues, but this still doesn’t explain it.

As for the “correct” winning margin – the Dockers repeated their move of the NAB game against the Eagles – they rested Sandilands up forward once the game looked safe.

The final margin is normally considered to be the correct reflection of the difference between the 2 sides on any given day (barring injury issues); but, n this instance, it would be fair to say that the Dockers should’ve won by more.

They definitely started preparing for the R4 Swans game a quarter early.

Compounding the Eagles problems is an injury to yet another tall defender.

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Best cert: Crows (always seemed in control after QT), then Cats (got there the hard way – just), Hawks (never in doubt) and Tigers (always in control)

Best Outsider:  not a great week for outsiders, but the Blues might have a rough chance (gave a contest without ever looking likely)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Crows to win by more than 49 points (never a hope); Tigers to win by more than 17 points (always safe) and Cats to win by more than 40 points (never a hope after early injuries)

Happy tipping!  Pick the Roos / Port game correctly, and you are well on your way to a good weekend (and, indeed, that was so true)