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Round 4, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R4, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 22 April 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: now that’s much better! The analysis was almost perfect.  The Tigers won by much more than the experts predicted (about 15 points) and the Tigers trend of outperforming to a major extent after an unimpressive loss continued. The only thing that wasn’t correct was that they didn’t blitz early – they held their own and then drew away later.

We need to cover a lot of ground this week.  Firstly, Port and the Cats are in focus. Both had narrow, fighting wins after a run of losses.  Usually, teams that are at least half decent and win like this can really outperform expectations the following week.

But there are a couple if “buts” involved here.  It is better if their win comes against a bottom team.  The Roos (beaten by Port R3) are not a bottom team.  The Suns (lost to the Cats R3) probably aren’t either, although they are currently winless.

Next, the losing streak needs to be longer than 2, as is the case here – although Port’s losing streak will “feel” longer – having been towelled up in NAB3 by the Crows.

If this trend is to hold, then Port and Geelong would jump out to a big lead in the first half – and usually exceed expectations in the end by 6 – 10 goals.  And, although this is an “after the fact” indicator, you will know what hit you if it happens.  But please note the “buts”.  I am not as confident as last week with the Tigers.

I am more confident about Port than the Cats, because the Cats have a negative technical trend to overcome.  When a favoured team gets smashed by injuries on the day, then comes from behind to record a famous victory, then they often underperform the following week.  This is because the courageous win takes too much out of them in the short term.  This trend is probably the more reliable guide.  Summing it up for the Cats, they will probably need a good lead at half time; otherwise, the Roos should prevail and would be likely to win by more than the expected 7 point margin that the experts are tipping.

To finish, we will have a brief squiz at the Crows.  They have suffered from “wins with diminishing returns” in 2013 and 2014 (when they just missed the finals). In R7, 2013 they beat the fledgling Giants by 135 points away (87 better than expected), then beat the Saints by 40 points (19 above expectations), then came from nowhere to overrun the Roos by a point (9 points better than expected). Then they lost by 7 points to Freo at home – when narrowly favoured to win.

In 2014, they beat the Saints by 86 points away (81 pts over expectations), then beat the Giants at home by 65 points (31 better than expected), then had a 9 point victory over the Dogs away (a mere 2 points better than expected).  The next week, they were raging hot favourites at home against Melbourne, but lost.

If this trend continues, then they are in danger of losing to the Dogs this weekend.  Their 3 wins so far have been by 77 at home to North (70 above), then by 27 over the Pies away (14 above), then by 25 points over the Dees at home (20 pts worse than expected, but still won).  It’s the same diminishing wins trend.  But, with a new coach, this is a chance to break that trend.  A good win – and by more than the expected margin of 4 goals – would suggest a break of the 2013/14 trend and a likely top 4 finish.  If they win narrowly or lose, some questions will remain about the extent of their rise in 2015.

 

The Dogs may struggle to get up for this match – having come back battered, bruised and badly beaten in Tassie.  Nonetheless, I will mark this as a slight danger game for the Crows.