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Round 4, 2015

Round 4, 2015

SuperTipping results for R3: 9 winners for a total of 19 + 2 bonus pts = 21 and  ranking improved from 15,181 to 3,672 out of 44,938 tipsters (top 8% – which is where a self-proclaimed expert should be)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 4 out of 4 (Crows, Tigers and Hawks all wining comfortably – and then the Cats holding on).  Streak improved from 1 to 5. Ranking of 4,765 and in top 32% (mediocre)

50/50 tips: 1 out of 3 for the week (With the Tigers winning big being the 1 positive, while the Cats and Crows didn’t win by enough) and 2 out of 7 for the year = a result of 28% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL have a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses)

Early thoughts for R4: This is a much tougher round than R3.  No raging cert jumps off the page, but those looking likely to be tipped (at this early stage) are Tigers, Giants, Roos and Crows.

Late breaking news Friday: Robbie Gray out for Port.  This will change the margin by about 4 points.  And there may be a doubt on Jared Polec as well.  If Polec is out as well, this would make it close to a line ball game.

 

Round 4, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

RICH

MELB

MCG

RICH

33

HIGH

No hope

2

STK

CARL

NZ

CARL

8

HIGH

A huge chance

3

ESS

COLL

MCG

ESS

13

HIGH

Some chance

4

GWS

GCS

CANB

GWS

28

HIGH

No hope

5

PORT

HAW

ADEL

PORT

9

HIGH

Tipped to win

6

FREO

SYD

SUBI

FREO

13

HIGH

A definite chance

7

BRIS

WCE

BRIS

WCE

16

HIGH

Some chance

8

GEEL

NMFC

GEEL

NMFC

13

EXTREME

Some chance

9

WBD

ADEL

ETIH

ADEL

23

EXTREME

A tiny chance

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

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1 RICH vs.  MELB         MCG Fri, 24 Apr 7:50 pm

Weather: showers, breezy

The Tigers are certs

This game is a good test for the Tigers.  Their fans would have pencilled it in for a win when the fixture came out.  The Tigers rebounded well (as expected) from their shock loss to the Dogs – and won by heaps against Brisbane up north last weekend.  Their challenge is to back up that performance and start racking up wins like a top team is expected to do.  They have been patchy in recent years when it comes to backing up the good rebound win with another solid performance.

The Dees went quite well vs the Crows away last weekend, but there is a sense that it had more to do with the Crows being a tad down in intensity than with the Dees being that great.

Melbourne have travelled 2 weeks in a row and now come back on a 6 day break.  This will benefit the Tigers – who were also away last weekend, but had a local encounter in R2.

Melbourne may see this as their chance to shine in their only Friday night game for the season.  They could also, of course, get stage fright.

The only concern for the Tigers is that they have brought in 3 players – none of whom were in the best in the VFL last weekend – to replace the injured Chris Knights, Troy Chaplin & Chris Newman.

The Tigers by 33 points and certs of the week

Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 33 points but the Dees won by 32. Analysis would have been great had the other team been selected.  As it was, it was awful.  There were warning signs about tipping the Tigers as certs, but they were ignored.  Firstly, the 3 injured “outs”; then the “ins” being not in super form in the 2s.  The three “ins” scored as follows: Nathan Drummond (17 and, sadly, did his ACL), Matthew McDonough (on as sub in 2Q and a modest 32) and Matthew Arnot (47).

Both teams suffered casualties, but the Tigers also missed some easy shots at goal.  They should have led by a couple of goals at half time; then they were blown away in greasy conditions in 2H.

Also, the form of the Dees was probably underestimated (assuming that the Crows were off their game last weekend).  Humble apologies!

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2 STK vs. CARL            Wellington NZ      Sat, 25 Apr 1:10 pm ** WARNING! This game starts at 11.10AM Melbourne time

Weather: sunny, windy (believe it or not), cool

The Blues, but a big danger game

From a Blue fans’ viewpoint, what they really need here is a gritty, unimpressive, small win.  This will give them the best chance to back it up with a win over Collingwood in R5 (when Mick breaks Jock McHale’s coaching record).  Such a win over the Saints would set up a positive technical lead for the Blues.  Then, with home games against the Lions and Giants in R6&7, they could even get on a roll.

Still no Robbie Warnock and Troy Menzel for the Blues; Kristian Jaksch (himself just getting over an injury) must have flown because he is being discussed as a possible replacement for Michael Jamison (who will probably have to pass a fitness test).

But the Saints also have their concerns.  Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna are both out – and they lose Maverick Weller also.  The experience of playing in Wellington should be beginning to be of use to the Saints now in their third year of the deal – they just need to get a win over there.  Given the fact that the Blues are struggling, this is their chance.

The Blues were good in some ways last week against Essendon.  And they are expected to beat the Saints.  But it is not a fait accompli!

The Saints were slow out of the blocks in their NZ game last season.  Expect them to be eager to correct this in 2015.

The Blues by 8 points, but far from certs

Post Match Review: Blues were tipped by 8 points and they won by 40.  Analysis was fair.  The good bit was tipping the Saints to come out flying early.  This they did.

But they were awful after half time.  It is expected that inexperienced teams like the Saints (with many of the experienced best 22 out injured).  The absence of Maverick Weller cost them – with Marc Murphy getting on top of tagger Jack Newnes in 2H.  Paddy McCartin was expected to do better this week, but was subbed out with 18 SC points.

The Blues were very good after a slow start and seemed to gain confidence and a relief of pressure once they hit the front.  The Blues were not tipped as certs – with the thought that they had gone 2hrs west in R2, then home, then 2hrs east in R4.  But they handled it well.

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3 ESS          vs. COLL             MCG Sat, 25 Apr 2:40 pm

Weather: showers, breezy

The Dons are favoured

The Dons can make it a 4 &1 start to the season with a win this week and then a game against the Saints.

The Pies have a series of big 50/50 type games at the MCG coming up – Blues, Cats and Tigers; then Suns away and Roos at the MCG again.  This is a critical patch for them with no game unwinnable, but also no dead cert.

The Bombers have named David Zaharakis and Jake Carlisle, but both may need to pass fitness tests.  If either one of these are fully fit, they will be well ahead of the Pies in terms of available personnel.

It now appears that the Dons really set themselves for “mission impossible” = beating the 2014 grand finalists in the first 2 rounds.

They almost did it, then did just enough to overcome the Blues the following week.

It appeared that they were a bit off their brilliant best against Carlton, but that may have been due to the short break off a huge game against Hawthorn.

Expect them to be “up” again – up enough to win.

The Pies had a huge win over the Saints last weekend – but St Kilda was pretty poor on the night.  Collingwood will get more kudos when they beat a “middle of the road or higher” team.  This is their chance.  They would fancy themselves if they are close late in the game.  The Bombers haven’t won a 4Q yet.  They lost R1 4Q by 46 points; then R2 4Q by a goal (although they did kick the last 3 goals of the game to win); then they lost 4Q in R3 by 15 points – when the game was safely in the bag.

The Bombers will eventually do better late in games.  It may be R4, but it is unclear when.  They seem to play with the attitude of leaving nothing in the tank at 3QT and then hope they are far enough in front to hold on.

Their lack of a normal pre-season is the Magpies best hope.

The Bombers by 13 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Bombers were tipped by 13 points but the Magpies won by 20.  Maybe the Dons played players who were just a few percent off where they needed to be to get the nod. Fanfooty.com.au notes that Zaharakis (see above) had a very quiet 1H, but came good after half time. Carlisle (see above also) only managed 45 SC points and may have been better sitting out the game – especially as it was wet.

Chappy went off with a minor knee injury and they lost yet another 4Q.  Given the heavy conditions and the fact that the Pies had an 8 day break compared to 7 for Essendon (on the back of an unusual pre-season) may have had an effect.

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4 GWS vs.   GCS            StarTrack Oval (Canberra)     Sat, 25 Apr 5:40 pm

Weather: showers, breezy

The Giants are certs

The Suns have had to travel in both R3 and R4.  This will tell against them; it is also noted that the conditions were un-QLD-like last Sunday at Geelong.  They have a 6 day break and then a trip to a cool and possibly showery Canberra.

The Fact that they couldn’t nail the Cats last week – despite dominating in many areas of the game (but not efficiency inside F50) – will be another negative for them.  They only had Rhys Stanley to beat in the ruck last week, but face the big Mumy

Charlie Dixon is back for the Suns after 1 game in the NEAFL; he still may be slightly short of a gallop (the club’s website says he played “close to 3Q of the reserves {= NEAFL} game last weekend”), but is preferred to Sam Day – who has disappointed.

Greg Broughton, Mitch Hallahan and Danny Stanley were all given chances to return this week, but didn’t make it back from injury.

Meanwhile, all is going fairly well back at the Giants.  They, too, wasted F50 entries and were a woefully inaccurate 4:13 at HT last week.  They finished ok without ever looking likely to overrun Sydney.

Their only risk is that they may not come up after playing Sydney the previous week.  They have struggled at times with this before, but it is not considered a huge risk.

The Giants by 28 points and certs (just)

Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 28 points and they won by 66.  Analysis was very good in that they were tipped as certs.  The factors which made this tip a cert (when the experts had it in the “doubtful” category and a 2 – 3 goal win tipped) was the extra travel factor, the fact that they had the Cats down and out last week but couldn’t nail the win AND Charlie Dixon coming back too soon.  He scored 49 SC points, but was very scratchy early – when the game was, in effect, won.

Compounding things for the Suns were having Seb Tape go out as a late withdrawal and losing Jack Martin plus Sean Lemmens cop injuries during the game.

The Giants were, indeed, certs.

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5 PORT vs. HAW           Adel Oval   Sat, 25 Apr 7:10 pm SA time

Weather: showers should be gone by game time; a bit breezy

Port in a tough one to pick

See Penny’s comments about this game here: http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-4-2015-penny

Her article mentions a technical lead that is a possible positive for Port.  In any case, it appears that the experts may have got a little over-excited about the Hawks (not to mention Hawk fans – who are taking it one flag at a time!) – while being still gun-shy on tipping Port.  The Power should be favourites for this game, based on the cold, hard facts.

The Matthew Lobbe saga has been a bit like “Waiting for Godot” for the Port fans.  But apparently he is back for real now. This will be the first time he and Paddy Ryder have played together (Ryder wasn’t playing in any of the NAB matches).  This could be a small minus for Port.

Matthew White was on the injury list early in the week with a foot problem.  He may be in some small doubt.

Paul Puopolo and Cyril Rioli both had little injury niggles from R3, but are expected to be fine.

The Hawks smashed the previously unbeaten Doggies last weekend, but the Dogs copped injuries early after losing both Matthew Boyd and Marcus Bontempelli prior to the game. Also, the Hawks were really savage following the loss to the Dons – and so had little intention of easing up last Sunday.

The fact that the Hawks have had to travel in R3 & 4 – plus the 6 day break compared to Port 7 – gives Port a slight edge.

If the Hawks win, it may be because Port is still not going at 100%.  But the analysis suggests that Port have been underrated in this game.

A match as exciting as the 2014 prelim would be good!

Port by 9 points
Late breaking news Friday: Robbie Gray out for Port.  This will change the margin by about 4 points.  And there may be a doubt on Jared Polec as well.  If Polec is out as well, this would make it close to a line ball game.
Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 9 points and they won by 8.  The tip was pretty good, but not quite as good as it looked.  The first thing to note is that the game scoring patterns were of an EXTREME variance nature – and this was tipped as high variance only.

Next, Puopolo (see above) had his quad injury flare up and only scored 37 SC points. And they lost Lake early; his opponent Jay (I know nothing) Schulz capitalised with 5 goals. And Paddy Ryder went forward also – stretching the Hawks down back.

Also, Penny’s preview (see link above) explains perfectly why Port got off to a flier.

The big mystery was how the Hawks – with injuries – made such a great comeback.  It helps that they are a top rated team.  But maybe also Port tightened up in 2H. “We weren’t brave enough” said the coach of 2H.

The real positive of the analysis was to tip Port and hold to it despite the temptation to pick the Hawks – after Robbie Gray went out injured and there was a small doubt on Polec (who eventually got subbed out in 4Q, but he had racked up 81 SC points by then).

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6 FREO vs. SYD            Subi  Sat, 25 Apr 6:40 pm WA time

Weather: dry, breezy

The Dockers in a top game

This is a huge game for both teams.  The Dockers can possible go clear on top of the ladder with “easy” games coming up against Dees away, Dons at home, Dogs away, Roos at home (not all easy kills but likely to be favourite in each game)

Michael Walters ran laps at training on Thursday and so might be in some doubt.

On a more positive note, they have played at home last week and have 2 weeks with no travel.

Nick Smith is back for the Swans and should be right, given that he was only left out as a precaution the previous week.

The Swans would fancy themselves to be 7-0 if they win this one.  They have games against the Dogs at home, Dees away and Cats at home to follow.  They have to overcome the long road trip, but they have one of the best records in Perth.  And they have a fairly short injury list.

However, the Dockers are really flying and it is going to be tough to tip against them in Perth at all this year.  But their longer injury list gives the Swans a chance.

Despite “awful” last games in the 2014 finals series, these two teams look like going deep into the 2015 finals series.

The Dockers by 13 points

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 13 points and they won by 14. Like the Port game, the tip was very close to the mark, but the variance was not properly forecast.  The scoring pattern was an EXTREME variance one – with the Dockers going out to a huge lead then almost going behind in 4Q.  But, overall, very happy with the analysis.

The Dockers have struggled badly late in games twice in a row now.  Interesting!

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7 BRIS vs.   WCE           Gabba         Sun, 26 Apr 1:10 pm

Weather: sunny, warm & breezy; low humidity

The Eagles probably

This is not a game to get too excited about – although the Eagles did have one excellent performance.

The Lions have had poor starts to the season in both 2013 and 2014.  They didn’t come good until R8 and R6 respectively.  They will improve sometime soon, but maybe not now.

They have named Claye Beams in the 7 man IC, but he was listed as a 1-2 week injury during the week.  Expect both he and Ryan Lester to miss the 22.  Tom Rockliff

The Eagles have a chance to win 2 in a row – being favourites for this match and then facing the Giants at home.

Jeremy McGovern has been named for the Eagles but must be in doubt.  The Lions are the one opponent that cannot hurt the lack of Eagles key defenders.  All their forwards are struggling for form, injured or too young.

The Eagles “stormed home” last week in the Derby when the game was shot to bits. And this occurred as the Dockers rested Aaron Sandilands forward.  But they will be given some credit for fighting the game out.  It may just help them to begin R4 better (having been totally blown away in 1Q last weekend).

The 6 day break and trip to QLD is a bit tricky for the Eagles, but the humidity is not expected to be a huge issue.  When the Perth teams have travelled to QLD on a 6 day break, they tend to start well!

The Eagles by 16 points

Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 16 points and they won by 53.  Analysis was a bit off, but still so-so.  The correct team was tipped!   Jeremy McGovern defied the naysayers and managed to play on Sunday – shutting down Harris Andrews.  This was a bonus for the Eagles.

Tom Rockliff appears to have come back too early and scored only 57 SC points (his lowest score for ages!).  James Aish was subbed out after being way off the pace.

It appears that the “not now” mentioned above regarding when they will come good needed more emphasis.

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8 GEEL vs. NMFC         Geel   Sun, 26 Apr 3:20 pm

Weather: showers & strong winds

The Roos – probably

See Penny’s comments about this game here: http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-4-2015-penny

Looking at Penny’s take on the Cats, the more likely outcome is that the Cats might find it hard to come up again after such an emotional “come from behind with injuries” type win.

If Penny’s positive technical chart for Geelong proves correct (considered unlikely), then the Cats should lead by heaps early.

Matthew Stokes was given almost no chance earlier in the week and has now been named on the 7 man bench; he is probably unlikely to play.  Then there is Tom Hawkins. He may also be in doubt for personal reasons.  The public should know about this by Saturday.

Daniel Wells was expected back but failed to come up in training; Jack Ziebell has been named.  He is the sort of bloke who might jump into the lions’ den to grab the footy.  Expect him to be tested close to game time (Saturday at earliest).  Jamie McMillan comes into the 7 man bench, but may not yet be fit.

This is a “must win” type game for both teams – but maybe more so the Roos.  The Cats won’t find themselves as hot favourites until R8 (Blues), while the Roos will have to wait for either R9 (Pies) or R10 (Eagles in Hobart).  Either team could end up with 1 win only after R7 if they lose this one.

Steve Johnson doesn’t look to be fully fit.  His SC numbers have been down since R1 and he played limited time in the NAB.

But the key issue might be the ruck.  With Dawson Simpson and ex Roo Hamish McIntosh floundering in the VFL, Todd Goldstein should dominate.  This should be enough to give North the edge in the middle and lead to more inside 50s.

The Cats might need a few things to go their way to win this.

The Roos by 13 points

Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 13 points and they won by 16.  This analysis was the best of the round.  The experts were tipping the Roos, but only by a goal or so – which would encourage a lot of tipsters to pick the home team (it had worked a treat since early 2007!).

Of interest is that Johnson had the green vest on (see comment above); and that Jack Ziebell managed to get up to play and did quite well.

Penny’s article explains why the Cats started well; but they were not able to continue their momentum past early in 2Q.

And, as suggested, Goldstein did dominate.

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9 WBD vs.  ADEL         Etihad Stadium    Sun, 26 Apr 4:40 pm

The Crows should do it
See Penny’s comments about this game here: http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-4-2015-penny

The Crows’ form prior to Showdowns has been patchy – but not bad enough to suggest that the pre-Showdown distraction theory should, in itself, be enough reason to tip against them.

The Dogs were “beaten up pretty bad” in Tassie last weekend.  The 7 day break helps them in terms of recovery.  The bad loss could possibly be sufficient to sap their confidence.  They play the Swans away next and then have a winnable R6 match-up with St Kilda.

They get back Matthew Boyd, Marcus Bontempelli and Easton Wood (all from injury).  All are expected to be fine, but Wood may be the biggest worry – he has a history of hammie injuries.

The Crows failed to get Kyle Cheney back from injury, but other things are falling into place.  If they are on their game, they should win.  However, with 6 days to the Showdown, they may ease off a bit in 4Q if the game is all parcelled up.

The Crows by 23 points, but not quite certs (again – refer Penny)

Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 23 points but the Dogs (must be crazy) won by 57.  Analysis was miles off and the wrong team tipped.  There was only one redeeming feature here.  Penny’s article which referred to the Crows diminishing win pattern meant that the Crows were not tipped as certs.  Indeed, diminish they did.  The Dogs were excellent on Sunday, but the Crows did not seem to be at their best

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Best cert: this may not be a great week to rack up a whole host of certs – Tigers (very poor) then Giants (deserved to be the certs of the week)

Best Outsider:  Port (they hung on to win), then the Saints (started well but faded badly)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Tigers to win by more than 24 points (never likely); Saints to win or to lose by less than 17 points (looked a chance but overrun); Giants to win by more than 21 points (in the bag a long way out); Port to win or to lose by less than 5 points (looked safe at QT)

Happy tipping!  This is a MUCH harder tipping week than R3. Expect some upsets! (and indeed there were some upsets)