Round 5, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R5, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 29 April 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was pretty good; both Port and the Cats began well; but Port’s start was excellent, whereas the Cats were probably weighed down by the fact that they had had an emotional win the week previous – hence they succumbed early; Port was expected to hold on better than they did in 2H (unusual!), but they were still able to prevail.  And there was a warning NOT to classify the Crows as certs.  Hopefully, you heeded my warning!

Round 5 is a very tough round.  There are lots of technical leads out there, but they tend to be conflicting (eg 2 teams playing each other and BOTH having negative technical leads).

So, with no great confidence this weekend, we will look at the Showdown and the Tigers.

Richmond had a good old FNS (Friday Night Shocker) last weekend. Teams generally bounce back well from such performances – especially early in the season.  In the past 5 years, teams have outperformed expectations by 18 points after a FNS in rounds 1-8.

With Richmond being outsiders by a goal, this sort out outperformance would give them a win. The Cats had 2 contrasting technical leads last weekend (competent team breaking a run of losses vs team bravely winning with grave injury problems), so it is unclear how they will perform this coming week.  The lead may be slightly negative. This confusion about Geelong muddies the water slightly, so I won’t be extremely confident on the Tigers.  Nonetheless, I will be picking them to win in an upset.

The Crows followed a technical pattern just like in the previous 2 years – diminishing wins.  It ended (in tears) with a loss to the Western Bulldogs on Sunday.   Now we look to the week after!  After their loss in 2013 (a real shocker with a home loss to Melbourne), they had the bye and then had an upset win over the Magpies – exceeding expectations by 32 points.

However, in 2014, their loss was against Fremantle at home (a7 point loss when ever so slight favourites).  The next week they were mercilessly flogged by the Swans.

My take on this is that the 2015 pattern is more similar to 2013 – in that the first loss (to the Dees then) is similar to the 2015 loss to the Dogs (ie an AS = Absolute Shocker).  As such, I would expect them to bounce back strongly this weekend.

But the charts for Port are uncertain.  It is possible that they may flounder after falling over the line against an injury depleted Hawks team.  But it is also possible that they are about to hit top form.

So I will tip the Crows with no great confidence.  Given the fact that Port was so brilliant early last week and the Crows were pitiful, expect Adelaide to come out breathing fire early on.

Finally, if the Dogs underperform expectations by more than 20 points on the Saturday, this will slightly increase my optimism about the Crows on Sunday (because it will tend to suggest that the R4 Dogs / Crows game is providing a false lead).