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Round 5, 2015

Round 5, 2015

SuperTipping results for R4: 6 winners for a total of 25 + 2 bonus pts = 27 and and ranking improved from 3,672 to 2,030 out of 45,469 tipsters (top 4% – excellent)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 1 out of 2 (the Tigers losing Friday night, then the Giants wining easily).  Streak stopped and now back to 1 after the Giants’ win. Ranking slipped from 4,765 to 5146 and in top 31% (mediocre)

50/50 tips: 2 out of 4 for the week (With the Tigers & Saints underperforming – the negatives; and the Giants and Port being the positives as they exceeded expectations) and 4 out of 11 for the year = a result of 36% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses)

A Gantlet guide will be provided later in the week. Guide is here and now.  Just tip the Bombers this week and further details to be provided next week. To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear

Early thoughts for R5: like R4, this is a pretty tough round; the best cert would appear to be the Bombers; hot favourites the Swans and Dockers will also be tipped – but with less confidence; narrower favourites the Suns and Eagles will be tipped; the Blues and Roos have better chances than the experts say, but still may not be tipped outright; the Tigers / Cats and Showdown are too close to call at this stage.

 

Round 5, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

CARL

COLL

MCG

COLL

11

HIGH

A genuine chance

2

RICH

GEEL

MCG

RICH

18

HIGH

A small chance

3

SYD

WBD

SCG

SYD

44

HIGH

No hope

4

GCS

BRIS

GC

GCS

12

EXTREME

No real outsider in this game

5

NMFC

HAW

ETIH

HAW

9

HIGH

A genuine chance

6

WCE

GWS

SUBI

WCE

12

EXTREME

A genuine chance

7

MELB

FREO

MCG

FREO

26

HIGH

A slim hope

8

STK

ESS

ETIH

ESS

44

HIGH

No hope

9

ADEL

PORT

ADEL

PORT

2

EXTREME

A huge chance

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

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1 CARL vs. COLL         MCG           Fri, 1 May 7:50 pm

Weather: light breeze, cool

The Pies, but plenty of doubt

This is a promoter’s dream – with Mick breaking the record against his most recent old club.  The question for all tipsters is: how much benefit is this to Carlton.  It is estimated as being worth a goal.

There must be some doubt on Michael Jamison. He was in doubt prior to going to NZ last week and then was subbed out in 3Q.  Robert Warnock has been pushing for a spot in the team, but he is only an emergency.

Doubt also exists about Dane Swan.  It may pay to check late changes for this game – easy to do because it is game 1.

The Blues hit form eventually last week after being competitive against Essendon.  Maybe a less impressive win would have been better for the Blues, because teams who break a reasonable losing sequence in this way often excel the following week.  And teams winning big often underperform a little.

The Blues also have had a trip to Perth and NZ in the past 3 games.  Now they face a 6 day break with a trip across the ditch.  This is a negative for them.

The uncertainty about tipping Collingwood has more to do with their long injury list than the Blues getting up big time (more so than the Pies) for the contest.

But the Pies will be tipped, because the Blues’ injury list is almost as long.

Collingwood by 14 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Pies were tipped by 15 points and they won by 75.  Analysis was a long way off, but most expected an EVEN closer game.  The positive was that the right team was selected and the “win it for Mick” factor was not over-emphasised.

But maybe the “travel back from NZ on a 6 day break” was not taken into account enough.  Then there was Dane Swan.  He was in doubt but played and did ok.

For the Blues, Chris Judd was just fair on his return and Bryce Gibbs was very poor.  Lachie Henderson was subbed out with zero possessions.

Maybe the Blues just totally dropped their bundle once the going got tough.  And perhaps it means the beginning (or the continuation) of the end for Mick.

Also, sorry: missed that Jamison was “omitted”

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2 RICH vs. GEEL          MCG           Sat, 2 May 1:45 pm

Weather: possible shower, breezy

The Tigers – without much confidence

Please refer to Penny’s comments on this game here:

http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-5-2015-penny

The loser of this game could face being well down in the ruck come bye time – with both teams having some challenging games to come.

The trick here is to assess Geelong’s ruck competency.  They began the year with Dawson Simpson.  He was subbed out in R1&2, then dropped.  He is back now – without starring in the VFL – because BOTH Rhys Stanley and Mitch Clark are out injured.  And the other option, Hamish McIntosh, is gain fitness in the VFL.

Simpson would probably need to be a fair bit better than in R1 to make one confident in tipping the Cats.  A sudden surge in form is not anticipated.  Shane Kersten has been doing well in the VFL and will probably be a forward and give Simpson a chop out in the ruck. There is still no Matthew Stokes for the Cats.

Some positives for the Cats:  Steve Johnson may do well this week after being half rested – coming on as sub last week in 3Q.  And James Kelly had an ordinary game after becoming a dad prior to R4.  Expect him to be better this week.

Before tipping the Tigers with huge confidence – let us look at them.  Chris Newman was considered unlikely earlier in the week.  He may be in some doubt.  They had 3 out injured last week and another 3 out injured this week.  This is a little unsettling, but some of the ins are regulars from a week or 2 ago.

But the Tigers are coming off a FNS (Friday Night Shocker) and are expected to bounce back well from that.  They are also a good “bounce back from an upset los” type team.

They have an 8 day break compared to the Cats 6.  Tigers by 18 points, but not confident enough to tip them as certs.

Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 18 points but the Cats won by 9.  Analysis was a fair way off and the wrong team selected.  The Cats were greatly helped by being very competitive in the ruck. In terms of hit-outs, we had Maric 25 + Vickery 5 versus Simpson 21 + Blicavs 15.

Maybe the multiple changes in 2 weeks for the Tigers was unsettling.  Perhaps the Cats are slowly pulling out of their slump.  But it is a bit of a mystery.   Then there is the long losing streak Tigers vs Cats.

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3 SYD vs. WBD              SCG            Sat, 2 May 2:10 pm

Weather: rain & windy

The Swans comfortably

The question here is: how much to believe the good form of the Dogs last weekend.  It is believed to an extent, but it is also possible that the Crows “got ahead of themselves” after Port won the previous night.  Everyone was talking about the resurgent Port meeting the undefeated Crows in the Showdown MCMXXVLIV (okay; lost count).

The trouble was that the Crows still had a game to go – and the Dogs pounced early.  They were up 6 goals to 1 at QT and never looked like losing.

They will be given some credit for the victory; but it will be tough to replicate this against a wary Swans team.

The Swans have to come up again after a big match against the Dockers in Perth.  Ball magnet Tom Mitchell has been banging the door down in the NEAFL and gets his chance now.  Adam Goodes is back.

Provided that the Swans recover from their trip west and big build-up (not that you would know it by looking at their first half), they should win this one comfortably.

The forecast rain should suit the bigger bodied Swans.  And they have a shorter injury list.

Swans by 44 points and certs.

Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 44 points but the Dogs won by 4.  OUCH!  And SORRY! There was a “provided” above which was ignored when it came to tipping the Swans as certs.  Maybe it was more the mental aspect of losing the Freo game – more so than the physical recovery.

And the other thing which was ignored somewhat was the value of the Dogs’ win over Adelaide.  It was put down to an Adelaide downer.  Maybe the Dogs need to be re-graded.

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4 GCS vs. BRIS              Gold Coast            Sat, 2 May 4:35 pm

Weather: shower or 2; light winds

The Suns, but not much confidence in them

This looked to be an easy one to tip a few weeks ago, but massive injuries to the Suns have made it tougher to pick.

As well as losing David Swallow and Nick Malceski this week, Jack Martin may be in doubt after being subbed off with an ankle injury last weekend.  Seb Tape and Mitch Hallahan remain out.

Joshua Glenn (a mid / back according to the Suns website) is an upgraded rookie playing his debut game. Tom Nicholls (running into form after an interrupted pre-season) has been preferred over Zac Smith.

The AFL website told us: GOLD Coast players have eyeballed each other in a team meeting full of honest feedback as they attempt to turn around their misfiring season.

The Lions made only one chance – a little surprising, given their poor form.  James Aish has been poor this year and has been dropped – replaced by Brent Staker.  Staker starred in the NEAFL after being ordinary in the AFL in R3.

There was not much in last week’s game to suggest that a turn-around is coming this week.  Tom Rockliff struggled a bit first up and may be improved by the run.

The Suns will be tipped despite their recent surge in injuries.  The Lions injury list is almost as bad.  The logic used here is similar to the Blues / Pies game.  The Suns are the better team.  And they have the slight home ground advantage.

And they come back home after 2 weeks on the road.

But the game will be classified as an extreme variance game – because both teams have been travelling so poorly and they are winless.

Suns by 12 points, but a good game to avoid.

Post Match Review: Suns were tipped by 12 points and they won by 64.  Analysis was a fair way off, but was okay from the viewpoint that the Lions ended up as favourites (inexplicably).  One positive was that the game was correctly listed as EXTREME variance – with the result being more than 6 goals away from the experts predictions.

Poor old / young Tom Rockliff was knocked out early without a touch – then Staker was out prior to HT; the Suns had their injury concerns as well, but theirs did not impact on their performance as much as the Lions.

Helping the suns was that Jarrod Harbrow did well first up from injury and debutante Josh Glenn excelled.  And Charlie Dixon improved greatly 2nd up

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5 NMFC vs. HAW          Etih             Sat, 2 May 7:20 pm

The Hawks – without great confidence

This is a good test for the Hawks.  They have some easier games coming up between now and the bye.  A victory here should give them good ladder position at the half way mark.

The Roos have a series of challenging games coming up and are unlikely to be hot favourites until they play the Eagles in Hobart in R10.

Daniel Wells was supposed to be back last week and is still out, with Luke McDonald also still missing.  But Jamie McMillan is back.  He replaces Trent Dumont who gave us a beaut highlights package when he came on as sub late in the game last weekend.

Ryan Schoenmakers comes in as the 3rd defence option behind Brian Lake and James Frawley.   Paul Puopolo was considered in doubt with a hamstring, but has been named.

The Hawks’ injury is a bit shorter than that of the Roos – but most of their injuries are in defence.  The Roos tall forwards could cause Hawthorn problems.  This is the best chance North has to win this game.

The Hawks will be deserved favourites, but they are not playing like a “flag in the bag” team at present.

Hawks by 9 points in a bit of a danger game

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 9 points and they won by 60.  Analysis was a fair way off – in the “extreme variance” range.

Both teams had late changes, but the one for the Roos was more significant than the worst kept secret that Paul Puopolo was the LW for the Hawks.  Jarrad Waite was the LW for the Roos and he was going to be a headache for the depleted Hawthorn backline.  In came the underdone Aaron Black as a replacement and got 6 touches and no score. Several other Roo players were battered and bruised.  Under these circumstances, a 5 goal type win suddenly blew out to 10 goals.

Aside from all the above, the Hawks were pretty much on their game on the weekend.

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6 WCE vs. GWS            Subi             Sat, 2 May 5:40 pm local time

Weather: slight chance of a shower; light to moderate breeze

The Eagles – without confidence

Remember 2014?  The Giants ventured to Subi and los by 11 points.  So why would anyone even think of tipping them to cause an upset now?  Well, the Giants were on the week for the 5th week in a row back then (having played 2 home games in that period at Canberra).  This time, it is only their 2nd week on the road (Canberra and Perth).

The Giants played a battling Suns team last week when the Suns were on the road for the 2nd week in a row.  They were very impressive, but the Suns were way from their top form.

Meanwhile, the Eagles won well against a disappointing Lions team.  It is hard to line up both big wins by these teams last weekend.

The Eagles will be more hurt by the injury to Matt Rosa than the Giants will be in losing Rhys Palmer.  And they are playing 6 days after a road trip to Brisbane.  In previous instances of this, the WA teams, they generally underperform the next week at home.

The fact that the form of their opponents in R4 was so poor – and uncertainty how both teams will cope with their travel issues, this game will be listed as an EXTREME variance contest.

The Eagles by 12 points, EXTREME variance and not certs

Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 12 points and they won by 87.  This was an extraordinary winning margin.  But there were a few positives: 
A. The variance was correctly tipped as EXTREME.
B. The correct tip was made; and
C. The experts had tipped an even smaller winning margin for the Eagles.

In the end, it appears that the big win by the Giants over the Suns last weekend was a false lead (with the Suns overachieving by heaps in R5 and Giants struggling big time).

And the Eagles, once again, showed their ability to really finish off a bottom half of the ladder team once they get in front.

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7 MELB vs.          FREO         MCG           Sun, 3 May 1:10 pm

Weather: dry; light winds

The Dockers – almost certs

The Dees haven’t had many Friday night games, but they gave the AFL reason to give them more with a tenacious win last weekend.  The problem that they now face is a somewhat unfamiliar build-up to R5.  They’ve had a nice weekend off after a good win – and it can be difficult to get up and running again.

Their last Friday night game was in 2012 when they lost to the Hawks by 66 points.  The next week they were putrid vs the Swans – down by 43 points at QT and losing by 101.

Back in 2011, they had 3 Friday night games.  But one was before the bye and another preceded one of their other Friday night games, so the only one of relevance is their R11 clash with the Bombers.  They were upset winners by 33 points. The next weekend, they had to wait until QB Monday.  Regrettably, they were uncompetitive against the Pies; they were down 2:2 to 3:6 at QT (Pies should have been further in front then 10 points), then down by 38, 41 and 88 points at the other changes.

A Saturday game would have been better for them than a Sunday one with a 9 day break.  It is possible – maybe likely – that the Dees will be on a downer for this game.

But the same can be said for Freo.  They would have looked at the fixture at the start of the year and said “tough games R1-4 vs Port, Cats, Eagles and Swans – then easy wins R5-7 over Dees away, Dons at home and then Dogs away.

It is likely that their intensity could drop a bit here.  The dropping off late in a game after a decent run of wins is a sign that they are due for a loss soon.  It could be this week, but the Dees may not be quite in the perfect frame of mind needed to beat them.

This concern about the Dockers getting ready to drop one soon is the main reason that they are not tipped as certs – and also the small chance that the Dees could come up well after the Friday night game.  And the Dockers prefer Etihad to the MCG.

The most likely scenario is for the Dockers to jump the Dees early and to let the Dees reduce the margin late in the game.

Dockers by 26 points and almost, but not, certs

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 26 points and they won by 66.  It appears that the Friday night game factor was bigger than first expected.  And the Dees, as a lower side trying to improve, still have a tendency to really drop their bundle at times.  The coach said that they played selfish footy rather than the team game (exemplified by Freo) – especially in 4Q when the game blew out.

Further, the Dockers have not trended downwards yet.  This is expected sometime soon as they come off a huge first month of footy.  But they managed to excel despite losing Matthew Pavlich and Michael Walters to injury.

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8 STK vs. ESS                Etih             Sun, 3 May 3:20 pm

The Dons are certs

This is going to be tough for the Saints.   They appeared to be really up for the NZ game and led well at HT.  But they were steamrolled in 2H and it will be tough for them to come up after the disappointment.

Essendon maybe played David Zaharakis and Jake Carlisle when they were NQR last week.  And they didn’t handle the conditions well.  They may be better suited to dry weather footy – and they will get this under the roof this weekend.

Daniel McKenzie (Saints) and the highly rated Kyle Langford (Dons) make their debuts in this game.

Maverick Weller coming in will be a bonus, but the Dons should bounce back strongly.

Bombers by 44 points and the certs of the week

Post Match Review: Bombers were tipped by 44 points and they won by 2.  Analysis was way off, but we “lucked out” (as the yanks would say).  Sorry for any excess anxiety caused.  This was the Gauntlet tip and almost went out in round 1.

The reason for the unexpectedly close result is mostly explained here: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-05-04/honest-meeting-sparks-saints-newfound-bravery

The key points are: AN HONEST chat between teammates sparked St Kilda to a much-improved performance – although not quite to victory – against Essendon on Sunday, according to midfielder David Armitage……. They played with more flair…… Armitage said the older players had offered counsel this week on how to deal with opposition comebacks, and felt it had helped.

As well as this, one has to question if the Bombers have hit a slump. In 2014, they began to hit the wall in R4 when they underperformed expectations by 52 points, then underperformed by 61, 13, 14, 16, and 32 points leading up to the bye.  In 2013, they outperformed expectation sin R1-5, then went below the line by 51, 20 and 63 points in R6-8.

It may be history repeating itself, the Saints catching them unawares or just a factor of their unusual pre-season (with many players not playing a game in the NAB).

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9 ADEL vs. PORT         ADEL         Sun, 3 May 4:10 pm local time

Weather: dry; light winds

Port probably

Please refer to Penny’s comments on this game here:

http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-5-2015-penny

This is a tough game to pick.

Looking purely on R4, Port would be tipped by heaps.  They were brilliant early against the Hawks and then hung on – while the Crows were never a hope against the Dogs.  And the Crows have to travel off a 6 day break.

But Penny’s article explains why the Crows are a definite chance (without being tipped with any great confidence).  Port’s 2H slowdown before the showdown is a concern.  The query is working out whether the fade-out by Port is bad enough to continue into this week; and whether the Crows can bounce back sufficiently to challenge.

Rory Laird may be in doubt after a heavy knock last weekend.  Rory Sloane also copped a few knocks last weekend and underperformed.  This happened on the back of the Crows deciding to play Patrick Dangerfield mainly forward – so the midfield of the Crows was weakened.  Sloane may not be a total cert to play either.

Down forward, Taylor Walker had a stinker.

Nathan van Berlo said this week: Crows’ lack of intensity around the contest was the main reason they were smashed by the Dogs on the weekend and said it would be the major focus against Port Adelaide in Sunday’s Showdown.

There is some doubt on Jared Polec and Robbie Gray in terms of injury.  Their fans will be hoping for a repeat of 1Q last weekend.

This is tough to pick because of doubts on key players for both sides.  Port by 2 points, but this is an EXTREME variance game and the tip is close enough to change it to the Crows if key Port guys pull out.

Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 2 points and they won by 24.  Analysis was fair.

As it turned out, Port’s slowdown the previous week against Hawthorn was not a cause for concern. Next point to note is that Rory Sloane was injured in R4 and underperformed in R5 – eventually getting subbed off with a different injury.  Inclusion Charlie Cameron didn’t fire.  On the other side, Robbie Gray was in some doubt during the week but played and excelled.  Jared Polec was also in some doubt, but came on in 4Q as the sub and did okay. So that explains why Port won by a bit more than expected.

And also the injuries to Richard Douglas and Rory Sloane. That slowed down the Crows as well.

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Best cert: the Bombers (lucky win) and then the Swans (just pipped); not an easy week to tip certs

Best Outsider:  Crows (competitive but lost), Blues (never a hope), Roos (never a hope) and Giants (never a hope)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Tigers to win by more than 9 points (never likely); Roos to win or lose by less than 19 points (never likely)

Happy tipping!  This is another hard tipping week. Expect more upsets! (we had three! With Cats and Dogs winning and, believe it or not, the Suns were unexpected outsiders)