Round 6, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R6, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 6 May 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: not much joy in last week’s analysis – the Tigers failed to bounce back after their Friday Night Shocker; and the Crows underperformed (albeit with injuries on the day); the only positive in all this was that I was not too bullish.

I was so excited about round 6 because I was going to tip the Crows with a fair degree of confidence.  Then, when all the players were out of the Suns’ team via injuries and various suspensions, a “tough to pick” game became a likely walkover.

Nonetheless, please humour me while I proceed.  The Suns had 4 losses and then a BIG win.  Teams such as GCS that break a 4 or more game winning streak with a big win usually underperform the following week.  I still expect this to occur.  The only problem is that it doesn’t help tipsters all that much – because the Crows are already expected to win by 6 goals.  I am still tipping the Crows to exceed that mark.

Without doubt, the Suns will be stung by the drama surrounding the club this week; but with 7 out this week – to follow up on 2 the previous week and Gazza son of Gazza & Jaeger O’Meara already out – they will struggle to be competitive.  And the Crows do okay after Showdown matches – as a rule.

Of more interest to tipsters is the Collingwood versus Geelong game on Friday night.  The Magpies are slight favourites – after both teams had good wins on the weekend – despite each having a decent injury list.

The technical patterns for each team are interesting.  Collingwood have 3 wins in a row combined with outperforming expectations in each game. They did this in 2014 and then followed up with a fourth over-performing win when they beat Carlton in R7.  The Pies actually blew a huge lead late in the game and only ended up 8 points above expectations.

They followed the same pattern in 2012 – winning R7-9 and outperforming expectations; and then followed that up with a 97 point demolition of the Suns in R10 – 30 points above expectations.

Again in 2011, they won by more than expected in R1-6; so the wins in R4, 5 and 6 all confirm this pattern.  On this basis, they would be expected to exceed expectations again and win by more than the goal that most expect them to win by.

The Cats underperformed in R2-4 (despite a win in R3) and then outperformed expectations in R5 and won.  The win over Richmond has the hallmarks of a temporary blip and not a sustained turnaround of form.  If the Cats were a share on the stock market, I would be selling them before the weekend.

In 2014, they underperformed in 3 rounds in a row (R6-9 with a bye in the middle), then had a minor blip up with a win over the Roos; then they were smashed by the Swans – underperforming by 93 points.  They followed up in R14-16 with three under-performances, then had a big win over the Dees; the following week, they went 34 points worse than expected – despite narrowly beating the Giants.

This trend also occurred in 2012, but was bucked in 2013 when they played the Hawks in week 5.

I am reasonably confident in tipping the Pies to win by more than 2 goals