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Round 6, 2015

Round 6, 2015

SuperTipping results for R5: 7 winners for a total of 32 + 2 bonus pts = 34 and and ranking improved from 2,030 to 1,921 out of 45,772 tipsters (top 4% – excellent)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 1 out of 2 (the Swans lost, then the Bombers fell over the line).  Streak stopped again and back to 1 AGAIN after the Essendon win. Ranking slipped from 5146 to 6300 and in top 35% (mediocre)

50/50 tips: 0 out of 2 for the week (With the Tigers & Saints underperforming – the negatives; and the Giants and Port being the positives as they exceeded expectations) and 4 out of 13 for the year = a result of a dreadful 31% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).

Tipped Essendon in R5 and just fell over the line (exhausted)

Here is the Gantlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear.  The Blues will be the Gauntlet tip this week.  There is some risk in this, but the theory is to get the Blues out of the way while the chance presents itself.

Early thoughts for R6: there looks to be 8 clear favourites this week in Roos, Dogs, Hawks, Crows, Swans, Dockers, Blues and Port.  Pies will probably be narrow favourites over the Cats; it appears to be a week to stick with the favourites in general; the Cats would be the most likely upset winner, followed by the Suns and Tigers (but they have trouble with the Roos a la the Cats) and tiny chances to the Giants and Dees.

 

Round 6, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

COLL

GEEL

MCG

COLL

13

EXTREME

A chance

2

NMFC

RICH

HOB

NMFC

18

HIGH

A small chance

3

WBD

STK

ETIH

WBD

33

HIGH

Almost no hope

4

GWS

HAW

HMB

HAW

12

EXTREME

A chance

5

GCS

ADEL

GLD C

ADEL

42

HIGH

No hope

6

MELB

SYD

MCG

SYD

27

HIGH

A tiny chance

7

FREO

ESS

SUBI

FREO

26

HIGH

A tiny chance

8

CARL

BRIS

ETIH

CARL

41

HIGH

Almost no hope

9

PORT

WCE

ADEL

PORT

28

HIGH

A tiny chance

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

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1 COLL      vs.      GEEL         MCG Fri, 8 May 7:50 pm

Weather: chance of shower; windy
The Pies probably

Please refer to Penny’s comments on this game at http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-6-2015-penny

The team changes make interesting reading.  For the Cats, Josh Cowan plays his first senior game since 2011 (when Dustin Fletcher was still fairly young). Matthew Stokes is still out, while the real (but out of form) ruckman Dawson Simpson has been dropped (but an emergency) and in come 2 part time ruckmen in Mitch Clark and Rhys Stanley to assist Mark Blicavs.  Both Clark and Stanley are coming back from injury.  Having 2 blokes who are similar coming back at once is a bit of a high risk / high reward.  The risk and reward will both be reduced if one of them pulls out and Simpson comes back in.

The Pies lose both Paul Seedsman and Jackson Ramsay go out (bringing their injury quotient to 25 – even worse than the 22 number for the Cats), but they bring in Jarrod Witts in an attempt to stretch the Cats ruck division.

Despite the slightly worse injury quotient, the Pies’ bottom end players look slightly better than their Cat counterparts.

Then, at the top end, Steve Johnson has been average after missing a fair bit of the pre-season.  Up forward for the Pies, Travis Cloke hasn’t set the world on fire either.

Piecing the puzzle together, the following may decide the contest:

A. Cloke vs Johnson – which player can lift from ordinary recent form.

B. the young rucks of Collingwood vs the makeshift Geelong rucks; and
C. The output of the lesser known players for each team (eg Tony Armstrong & Tim Broomhead vs Nakia Cockatoo and Cowan)

Pies look to be a bit ahead, when it is all added up; but there are so many unknowns and risks here that the variance will be called EXTREME.  Regrettably, this is also the toughest game to pick.

Pies by 13 points, but not certs

Post Match Review: Pies were tipped by 13 points but the Cats won by 41.  Analysis was a fair way off – and it’s never good to tip a loser.  But the Cats did well in points A, B and C above.  Point A: Stevie J scored 130 SC points compared to Travis C’s 61 – and Cloke missed an absolute sitter in 4Q when the Pies were making a bit of a comeback.

Point B: the Pies won the hit-outs, but the Cats won the clearances.

Point C: the Cats “almost unknowns” were far better than those at Collingwood; eg Corey Gregson (97 SC) and Darcy Lang (80 SC); and Jed Bews unexpectedly kept Jamie Elliott goalless.

Did the Pies get too carried away with the win last Friday night?

The one big positive – the variance was correctly labelled as EXTREME.

 

 


.2 NMFC     vs.      RICH          Hobart        Sat, 9 May 1:45 pm

Weather: chance of showers, but maybe after the game; windy
The Roos to rebound

Despite Daniel Wells missing ANOTHER week, the North team looks far better than last weekend.  The inconsistent Jarrad Waite comes back to replace the underdone Aaron Black; Lachie Hansen comes back after 2 games in the VFL and Luke McDonald returns from injury.

With some players hardly getting a touch last week – then knocks to 2 star players, they were always up against it.  They look better now and have a good recent record against the Tigers – having won 5 of the last 6 – including 2 x 8 goal plus wins.

The Tigers regain Deledio and their recent record in Deledio-less games is 1 win and 3 losses in 2015; same in 2014.  There was some talk of him being the sub (due to being underdone only).  The coach’s 07 May presser suggests there may be some doubt on him playing a full game.  Beware!

Of concern is that 3 “ins” last week are “outs” this week – only one (Corey Ellis) was through injury.

As well as the Tigers having a poor record against the Roos, they also have struggled against the Cats.  This was not surprising in 2007-2011, but they still couldn’t manage a win in the past 3 years either.

A positive for the Tigers is that Chris Newman will be improved by the run first up from injury.

But the season is at risk of slipping away for Richmond.  They have already played 4 lowly teams from 2014 (Blues, Dogs, Lions and Dees); if they lose this one, they also have Port and Freo away before the R10 bye as well as the Dons and Pies.

The Roos are also 2 and 3 at present – with a slightly easier draw in coming weeks.

And the Tigers look a bit more fragile.

North by 18 points, but not confident enough to call them certs.

Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 18 points and they won by 35.  Analysis was fairly good as the Roos were only 11 point favourites going into the game.

Both teams had underdone blokes they were probably going to sub out.  The Roos did this with Lachie Hansen, but Richmond had to sub but Ben Griffiths at QT and so Brett Deledio had to play the full game (for 60 SC points).

Another issue for the Tigers is that Chris Newman struggled – after a recent back injury.

This helps explain the 35 point margin.

 

 


.3 WBD       vs.      STK  Docklands   Sat, 9 May 2:10 pm

The Dogs to continue their winning ways

This looks like an easy one for the Dogs – provided that they don’t have a big letdown from the emotional win against the Swans.

The Saints also have to come up after an emotional loss.  They players had a big talk prior to the Essendon game – and this resulted in a much better performance.  It may be tougher for the Saints to get up this week than for the Dogs.

Helping the Saints a bit is that Lin Jong and Matthew Boyd are both out injured.

The Saints physio reckons Shane Savage is a cert to play despite looking doubtful at the end of R5.  And Leigh Montagna + Nick Riewoldt come in – their best 2 players.  But sometimes inclusions like this can cause the lesser players (who have been carrying a heavy load) to collectively drop off a bit.

Ayce Cordy was expected to be dropped this week, but has stayed in – with Will (he get a game?) Minson listed as an emergency.  A late change coming, perhaps?

If you are sitting on a big runs of certs, then “cert” call on the Dogs is marginal.  There is a just a small query on them coming back from the wet in Sydney and backing it up with a good effort.

The Dogs by 33 points and (just) certs (with a streak of certs standing at a mere 1 – not risking much)

Post Match Review: Dogs were were tipped by 33 points but the Saints won by 7.  Analysis was miles off and the Saints came from 55 points down to win (amazing!).

While Dogs coach Luke Beveridge said that the tough win over the Swans wasn’t an excuse, he did admit that they lacked energy in 2H. In a strange way, kicking the first goal of 2H may have been bad for the Dogs.  It seemed that this goal lulled them into a sense that the game was won.

Ayce Cordy got towelled up in the ruck and the Dogs lost the hit-outs 28-48.

Alan Richardson didn’t see the comeback coming, but he said the Dogs looked a little bit weary late in the game and had a couple of blokes on the ground who looked a bit sore.

There is also the mental side for the Dogs – a huge win over a 2014 GF team and then, suddenly, being hot favourite for the first time in 2015.

Credit also needs to be given to the Saints for persistence.

 

 


.4 GWS       vs.      HAW           Homebush  Sat, 9 May 4:35 pm

Weather: breezy
The Hawks, but not extra keen

The Giants dropped their bundle in a Giant way last weekend.  Tipped as possible upset winners, they went from 4 points down at QT to lose by 87.

Their omissions this week scored a grand total of 83 SC points between them, while sub Will Hoskin-Elliott came on as sub in 3Q and scored 3 SC points.  He will be improved by the run.  Jeremy Cameron copped an awful looking broken nose and then the Eagles do what they do best – punishing struggling opponents a la Michael Slater.

The Giants were on the road for the 2nd week last week and return home now.

The Hawks line-up looks weaker with the suspensions, but that isn’t their major problem.  They have gone W L W L W so far with both losses being significant upsets.  The ability to get up every 2nd week (so far – and it’s only a small sample) isn’t a great sign for later on in the year.

Right now, it is expected that they will have enough bullets to gun down GWS.  But the experts appear to be just a bit too keen on them.  Having said that, the Giants form after a huge thrashing is mixed.  After underperforming by 50 points or more, they have done the following the week after in recent times: 2013: a +12, +29 and -45; 2014: a -94 (with a bye in between); and a +71.

This trend line is enough to call this an EXTREME variance game.  As such, the Hawks will NOT be tipped as certs.

Hawthorn are expected to try to kill this game off early – in the hope that the Giants will drop their bundle again.  If this happens, a huge win a la 2014 Hawks 99 point away to the Suns in 2014.

However, if the GWS stay in touch, then a struggling win – or Jeff Kennett forbid – an upset loss is possible.

The Hawks by 12 points

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 12 points but the Giants won by 10.  Analysis was reasonably good – despite not tipping the winner.  The good part of the analysis was that many had tipped the Hawks as absolute certs – but they were tipped without great confidence due to the up and down nature of the Hawks form lines.

It was also noted above that the Hawks will be looking to kill the game off early.  This indeed was the trend line for the game, but the Giants were resolute in their desire to claw back the margin.

Who stepped up in the absence of Lou Codge and Jordan Lewis?  Nobody, really.  The only Hawks to score triple figures in SC points were Sam Mitchell, Grant Birchall and Sean Burgoyne.  The Giants had 8 players >99 SC points.

 

 


.5 GCS        vs.      ADEL         Gold Coast Sat, 9 May 5:10 pm

Weather: light breeze; low humidity
The Crows are the certs of the week

Please refer to Penny’s comments on this game at http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-6-2015-penny

The injuries and suspensions have killed off this game as a contest. The Suns have lost 9 top 22 players in the past 2 weeks – on top of already missing Gazza and Jaeger O’Meara. It is just too big an adjustment to be able to win.  Teams generally thrive on predictability of patterns of play.  Nine changes in 2 weeks means that this won’t happen.  Even if the Suns are highly motivated to get the season back on track, it won’t happen this week.  They may get multiple players back next week and can begin to regroup.

High draft pick Peter Wright is an emergency after an injury interrupted pre-season.

The Crows do quite well after Showdowns – as indicated in the Herald Sun this week.  This is their variance the week AFTER Showdown losses – in order of most recent to least recent: -49, +12, +12, +19, -29, +34.  So 5 out of 7 are positive results, albeit the 2 negative ones are sizeable.

But it indicates that their recovery from these games is mostly okay.  This is all they need to wallop the Suns this weekend.  And they did have players injured on the day last weekend.  So the loss wasn’t as bad as it looked.  Rory Sloane was considered to be in some doubt, but the coach has declared him a cert.

But the Crows do lose 4 players to injury and their replacements aren’t as well credentialed.  Still, the Crows look certs in this one.  Adelaide by 42 points and certs

Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 42 points and they won by 41.  Not a great deal needs to be said about this one.  The Crows were correctly labelled certs against a severely depleted Suns outfit.

Rory Sloane did get subbed off, but it was for a different injury to his previous one. The Suns won 4Q after Slaone went off in the third.

The Suns will get back a few players next week and the Crows were fortunate to play Gold Coast at the “right time”.

 

 


.6 MELB     vs.      SYD  MCG Sat, 9 May 7:20 pm

Weather: showers earlier should clear; windy
The Swans to get the points

The Swans were shock losers last week and put a heap of people out of the Gauntlet tipping. 1,930 tipsters have been eliminated; 6,857 tipsters remain in Gauntlet. That is a HUGE number gone in the first week of the comp and many more almost bombed out on the Bombers.

With Sam Reid, Isaac Heeney and Ben (no vowels) McGlynn coming back in, the Swans team looks better. It is hard to work out how good the Dogs were last weekend or how flat / bad the Swans were.  And it is a bit hard to read just how well they will respond.  They are probably more concerned about getting the 4 points this week than “making a statement” with a huge win.

Last week, the form of the Dees after a rare Friday night game was analysed.  This time, their form 2 weeks after the bye is reviewed.  Their variances in the 2nd week after the Friday night games is -7 (in 2012), +87 (in 2011).  The 2012 play days were Fri, Sat, Sun, but the 2011 play days were Fri, Mon, Sun.  This latter pattern more closely matches the 2015 pattern of Fri, Sun (too long a break), Sat (just right – as Goldilocks would say).

Christian Salem may be in some doubt for the Dees after a R5 concussion.  Jake Spencer is a surprise inclusion for Mark Jamar.   The Dees are definitely tipped to show more than last week.  It is unlikely that it will be enough to snare a victory, however.

Swans by 27 points and almost certs – but not quite

Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 27 points and they won by 38.  Analysis was reasonably okay.  The problem was trying to work out which team would bounce back from their disappointing loss better.  It was the Swans – slightly.

What really hurt the Dees was the low numbers produced by 2 of their “ins”: Jimy Toumpas – 37 SC points and Chris Dawes – 31.

The Swans ins all fired – barring Isaac Heeney, who was injured early.

 

 


.7 FREO     vs.      ESS   Subi  Sat, 9 May 6:10 pm

Weather: breezy
The Dockers to remain unbeaten

Note that there are 6 games on the Saturday this weekend due to Sunday being Mother’s Day.

The Dons generally tend to hit a slump about this time of year.  In 2014, they lost (in a big upset) to the Saints in R5 (how about that for a coincidence), then lost to the Pies in R6, followed by struggling wins against the lowly Dogs and Lions before being trounced by Sydney.

In 2013, they were unbeaten after 6 rounds, then lost to the Cats.  The following week, they were huge favourites and got rolled by the Lions at Docklands.

This may be occurring in 2015; but the average form after being terrific against the 2014 grand finalists (in R1&2 this year) may be due to their unusual pre-season.  It is uncertain when their slumps may occur and how long they could last.  So this makes the game hard to assess.

Furthermore, the Dockers had set themselves for a huge first 4 weeks (Port at home, Cats away, mouse will play, Derby and then Swans at home).  They followed up pretty well in R5 against a very flat Dees outfit.  They are due for a letdown sooner or later.  If the Dons are on, it could be now.

But a more likely scenario is a Docker fade-out late in the game and a battling win (or, less likely, the Bombers get off to a flier and then the Dockers reel them in).  The third option is if the Dons are in a big hole – then it could be a flogging.  Option 1 seems the most likely.

The concern about a possible Docker slump has caused the tip for Freo to be not quite a cert.

The Dockers by 26 points and almost certs

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 26 points and they won by 28.  Analysis was excellent in this case. The likely Docker late fade-out (mentioned above) happened.

The fade-out was caused by the Dockers doing a few things differently (“There were a few mitigating circumstances in the last”, the coach said), but it still indicates that their first loss is coming soon.

And it is difficult to know how the Bombers are really travelling after their abnormal build-up to the season.

 

 


.8 CARL     vs.      BRIS Docklands   Sun, 10 May 3:20 pm

The Blues to “atone”

If the Blues lose this one, Mick Malthouse won’t be coach in 2016.  This is a typical “sack the coach” game.  This means that if the coach is gone already, then it often plays out in a disastrous loss against a lowly team – or a monstrous loss against a top team.

Apart from the “sack the coach” logic, it is hard to make a case for Brisbane.  Their form has been dreadful – with no sign of an upward trend. In 2014 and 2013, their early season upset wins both came after a half reasonable performance (-16 versus expectation in 2014 and -4 in 2013).  Last week they were -58.

The “ins” for Carlton are good: Dale Thomas, Levi Casboult, Nick Graham & Troy Menzel.  The Blues had a FNS (Friday Night Shocker) and should bounce back well from it.

If they team and club is together enough, they should win big.  The Blues will be labelled certs here, but with a little * to warn those on a big runs of certs that there is the club disunity risk.

Blues by 41 points and * certs
Post Match Review: Blues were tipped by 41 points but the Lions won by 9.  Analysis was waaaay off.  Please note the asterisk above.  The asterisk occurred.  This was a “sack the coach” loss (meaning that the loss has sealed Mick’s fate – he won’t be there in 2016).  That is the only explanation for the loss.

It helped the Lions to be underdogs in this game.  The Blues really felt the pressure!  Allen Christensen played his first top game for the Lions after an interrupted pre-season.

Give a few little injury concerns that Brisbane had during the day, the Blues should have steamrolled them. That fact that they could not bounce back from a FNS means that the club looks destined for the bottom four and a new coach in 2016.  This assessment is based on game trends only – no inside knowledge of the club’s workings.

 

 


.9 PORT     vs.      WCE ADEL Oval          Sun, 10 May 4:10 pm

Weather: possible shower; windy
The Power to keep on powering

The Newscorp papers wrote a good story about Port underperforming after showdowns. It reflected their desire to win the local war – with not as much regard for the bigger war in comparison to the Crows.

This mindset is expected to change – now that they are considered some sort of flag hope.  With a much shorter injury list than the Eagles, they should win this one.

The Eagles form may not have been as good as it looked last week.  Their 3 wins have been against the Blues, Lions and Giants – with losses to the Dogs and Dockers.

Keep an eye on the news for Josh Kennedy.  Apparently, they will check to see how he pulls up on Friday after Thursday training and then decide if he jumps on the plane.

Port’s form last week was slightly flattered by the Crows having injuries.  Glen Luff noted that Pot have won in R4 & R5 when they lost the inside 50 count by heaps.

Ken Hinkley wants to address this problem before the defence caves in under weight of numbers.  He will need to win with Ollie Wines – who might come back next week.

Port by 28 points and almost certs

Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 28 points but the Eagles won by 10.  The Analysis was poor.  As had often happened, Port underperformed after a Showdown.  It was expected that they were “past this” now – being regarded as a flag possibility.

Josh Kennedy did manage to play – despite some doubts about him, but he was off the mark with 1:3 and he had a small finger injury during the game.

Glen Luff’s note above should have been given more consideration.  The only plus is that Port was not tipped as certs.

 


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Best cert: the Crows (never in doubt), then the Blues (fell away badly) & Dogs (looked safe at HT, but folded)

Best Outsider:  it’s not the week to go crazy on outsiders; the Giants have a small chance (they won), while the Cats might be slightly overrated for game 1, but they have some chance in an EXTREME variance game (always in control)

 


Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): The Dogs by more than 21 points (looked safe early then bombed out); the Blues by more than 28 points (never looked likely); and a slightly riskier option: the Giants to win or to lose by less than 23 points (rarely looked in trouble – in fact, they won outright)

 


Happy tipping!  This is not the week to go crazy in order to make ground on the favourites.  An upset or 2 may occur, but it is not easy to know which outsider is more likely (as it turned out – it was a great week to go crazy – with 5 outsiders winning!)